Get started

Commodities

XAUUSD - 4H Breakout and Retest Setup🟡🟡🟡 🕒 June 17, 2025 Bias: Medium-Term Bullish Structure: Breakout → Retest → Continuation Context: Trendline break + confluence with EMA + prior resistance turned support 🔍 Market Structure Insight: Major descending trendline broken with strong impulsive momentum. Pullback held at the intersection of: Broken trendline retest EMA 60 dynamic support Bullish structure of HL-HH (Higher Low / Higher High) Strong bullish candle at support ✅ Trade Plan – Buy Stop Setup Entry (Buy Stop): 3402 SL: 3373 (below the pullback structure + EMAs) TP1: 3430 (local resistance area) TP2: 3470 (measured move from previous leg height) #XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by MJElahifx
4
Gold Hits PRZ with RD-! Time for Bears to Take Over?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) attacked the Resistance zone ($3,445-$3,406) once again, forming an Ending Diagonal at the top of the structure. Although price reached the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , the presence of Regular Divergence (RD-) between the last two peaks could indicate the weakening of bullish momentum . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , we can clearly count a completed 5-wave structure , with an Ending Diagonal pattern . This supports the idea of a major correction starting soon . I expect Gold to attack the lower lines of Ending Diagonal , and if it breaks, it could drop to at least $3,333 . The Second Target could be the Support zone ($3,451-$3,120) . Do you think Gold will make a new All-Time High(ATH) again in this rally?! Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,463 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
1
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Technical Outlook-17 June 2025Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a clear uptrend: price is making higher highs and higher lows, trading above key moving averages and an upward trendline Analyst ManiMarkets notes “a remarkably robust and sustained uptrend… printing higher highs and higher lows” since late 2024. The nearest major hurdle is around the $3,500 all-time high. The current structure remains bullish: we have not seen a sustained break of the uptrend, so the overall bias is bullish. In Smart-Money terms, recent price action shows no bearish break of structure on 4H (no BOS), and price is simply consolidating near highs – a bullish sign. Key zones to watch: Demand/Order Block (~$3,374–3,380): Around $3,375 is a swing-low and past demand area. It lines up with the 4H EMA50 and 1H EMA200, a classical support confluence. A strong bullish “order block” (heavy buying zone) sits here – a typical smart-money support area. Pivot Point (~$3,389): Using the classic pivot formula On the recent 4H range gives Pivot ≈ 3,389. This acts as a short-term balance point. Resistance (≈$3,400–3,405): Gold has multiple prior highs around $3,400–3,405 (e.g. the overnight high ~$3,405 and the last swing high ~$3,405) which have been repeatedly tested. Traders are watching a break above ~$3,405 for follow-through. (A recent idea noted gold “bounced off support” near $3,390 and is “looking for a clean sweep of the highs at 3405”.) Major Resistance ($3,500): The all-time peak around $3,500 is a big psychological barrier. We expect stiff supply if price approaches 3,500. Using these levels, the pivot-based support and resistance on the 4H chart are: Pivot Point: ~$3,389 R1: ~$3,406 (Pivot + 1×range) R2: ~$3,421 (Pivot + 2×range) R3: ~$3,437 (Pivot + 3×range) S1: ~$3,374 (Pivot – 1×range) S2: ~$3,357 (Pivot – 2×range) S3: ~$3,342 (Pivot – 3×range) (These are rough levels using the standard formula on the last 4H high/low.) Beyond numbers, price-action is key: we look for bullish patterns at support (e.g. bull-engulfing or pin-bar at ~$3,375–3,380) and cautious action near resistance. A brief “liquidity grab” happened at the $3,375 area recently (price wiggled below and then shot back up), which in Smart-Money jargon sweeps stops. That suggests larger players may have been absorbing buying interest. In short, the tape looks healthy for bulls unless $3,375 breaks decisively. A break of the $3,400–3,405 highs would be a bullish BOS (break of structure), targeting the next supply zone. Trade Setups (1H, Aligned with Bullish Bias) Below are three high-probability long setups on the 1-hour chart (in line with the 4H uptrend). Each is sized for a ~$10 stop from the entry zone. Buy near $3,374–3,380 (Demand Zone): Entry: $3,374–3,380 area (around Pivot S1 and the recent swing low). Direction: Buy. Stop: ~$3,364 (just below this zone, ~$10 lower). Targets: ~$3,402 (near Pivot R1/previous high), and then ~$3,420 (around next resistance). Reason: This zone is a confluence of support – it was a recent 4H low and aligns with EMAs (1H EMA200/4H EMA50) It acts like a “bull order block” where buyers stepped in A strong bounce from here keeps the bullish structure intact. Trigger: Look for a bullish reversal candle on 1H (e.g. an engulfing or pin-bar) forming near $3,375. This confirms rejection of lower prices and signals a buy setup. Chart: Example 1H gold chart. Blue shaded area marks the ~$3,374–3,380 buy zone (Pivot S1/EMA support). A bullish reversal candle here would trigger a long entry, targeting $3,402 then $3,420. Buy break-&-retest at ~$3,402–3,408: Entry: After a close above ~$3,405, look to buy on a pullback into $3,402–3,408 (just above the old high). Direction: Buy. Stop: ~$3,392 (about $10 below the entry zone). Targets: ~$3,430 (next swing high) and ~$3,450 (round level/upper channel). Reason: A decisive move above ~$3,405 would mark a BOS (break of the prior high), shifting structure higher. That resistance then becomes support on a retest. This is a classic “breakout retest” entry. (As noted, highs around 3,405 have been tested repeatedly, so breaking them signals strength.) Trigger: Wait for a 1H candlestick to close firmly above 3,405, then buy on the next pullback into the $3,402–3,408 range with a bullish candle or dip-buy signal. Buy on pullback to ~$3,385–3,390 (minor higher low): Entry: $3,385–3,390 if price dips but holds above the 4H pivot (~3,389). Direction: Buy. Stop: ~$3,375 (below the entry zone, about $10 down). Targets: ~$3,420 and ~$3,450 (same as above levels). Reason: If the market skips Setup 1 and 2, any 1H pullback that still holds above the pivot (creating a higher-low) is another opportunity. Buying this higher-low keeps us aligned with the 4H uptrend. Essentially, we allow price to re-test the pivot area as new demand. Trigger: A bullish reversal pattern on 1H in the $3,385–3,390 area (for example, a hammer or bullish engulfing) would mark a higher-low and signal a long entry. Each setup has a tight stop (~$10) just beyond the support zone, and logical profit targets at nearby resistance levels. All assume the 4H trend stays intact. If support fails (e.g. a clean break under $3,374), be ready to reassess. Takeaway: Gold’s 4H trend is bullish, so focus on buying dips into identified support zones (not shorting). Use tight stops beyond those zones and aim for the next resistance. In practice, that means looking to go long around ~$3,375–3,380 and ~$3,405 (on a clean breakout), riding any bullish continuation toward $3,430–$3,450, while managing risk at each step.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
Crude Oil Challenges 2-Year ChannelAmid rising summer demand, an inverted head and shoulders breakout from oversold 2020 levels, and the recent outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, crude oil has tested the upper boundary of the declining channel originating from the 2022 highs. This test comes as supply risks for the coming month intensify. This upper boundary aligns with the $77 resistance level. A confirmed breakout and sustained hold above this level could shift momentum more decisively to the bullish side, potentially paving the way for a retest of the $80 and $83.50 levels. On the downside, if oil fails to maintain its gains and resumes a pullback, key support zones are located around $69, $66, and $64, reestablishing bearish dominance within the channel. — Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
USOIL 1 - Hour Chart AnalysisUSOIL 1 - Hour Chart Analysis Key Levels Support: ~69.50 (short - term), 67.70 (critical backup). Resistance: 73.50 (major hurdle, tested before). Trend, Pattern & Middle East Conflict Price oscillates between support/resistance, with a potential “V - shaped reversal”. Middle East conflicts add high uncertainty: Escalation: Fears of supply cuts could push price above 73.50 rapidly. De - escalation: May pressure price down, but 67.70/69.50 still get support from lingering supply - risk worries. Trading Strategies Bullish: If 69.50 holds (e.g., long lower shadows/bullish candles), small - size long. Target 73.50; stop - loss ~69.20. Watch for sudden conflict news. Bearish: If 69.50 breaks (consecutive closes below), short. Target 67.70; stop - loss ~69.80. Stay alert to conflict updates. Note: Oil prices hinge on supply - demand, Middle East tensions, and the USD. Combine tech/fundamental analysis; manage risk strictly. ⚡️⚡️⚡️ USOil ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Buy@ 70.50 - 71.00 🚀 TP 73.00 - 74.00 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
MARKETSCOM:USOILLong
by Sovereign_1
GOLD Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 3389.4 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal -3396.3 Recommended Stop Loss - 3385.8 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Forward-looking trading, focus on 3380 support📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East 2. Iran nuclear talks 3. Retail sales data 📈 Market analysis: Gold prices are currently in a narrow range of fluctuations again, and the signal of Iran restarting nuclear negotiations has weakened risk aversion, triggering a correction in gold prices during the session, but tensions in the Middle East remain an uncertain factor. In the short term, we still need to focus on the breakthrough of the 3380 support line. If the 3380 support line is strong, we can still maintain a long trading idea in the short term and look to 3400. On the contrary, once it falls below, it is expected to look to the 3350 line. Pay attention to the breakthrough of 3400 on the upside. If the Asian and European sessions cannot effectively break through this short-term resistance, gold will continue to fluctuate. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3380-3370 TP 3390-3400-3450 SELL 3400-3390 TP 3380-3370-3350 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell-2
Soybeans and Heat: Subtle Signals in a Volatile Market1. Introduction Soybeans aren't just a staple in livestock feed and global cuisine—they’re also a major commodity in futures markets, commanding serious attention from hedgers and speculators alike. With growing demand from China, unpredictable yields in South America, and increasing climatic instability, the behavior of soybean prices often reflects a deeper interplay of supply chain stress and environmental variability. Among the many weather variables, temperature remains one of the most closely watched. It’s no secret that extreme heat can harm crops. But what’s less obvious is this: Does high temperature truly move the soybean market in measurable ways? As we’ll explore, the answer is yes—but with a twist. Our deep dive into decades of data reveals a story of statistical significance, but not dramatic deviation. In other words, the signal is there, but you need to know where—and how—to look. 2. Soybeans and Climate Sensitivity The soybean plant’s sensitivity to heat is well documented. During its flowering and pod-setting stages, typically mid-to-late summer in the U.S., soybean yields are highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations. Excessive heat during these windows—particularly above 30ºC (86ºF)—can impair pod development, lower seed count, and accelerate moisture loss from the soil. The optimal range for soybean development tends to hover between 20ºC to 30ºC (68ºF to 86ºF). Within this window, the plant thrives—assuming adequate rainfall and no pest infestations. Go beyond it for long enough, and physiological stress builds up. This is precisely the kind of risk that traders price into futures markets, often preemptively based on forecasts. Yet, trader psychology is just as important as crop biology. Weather alerts—especially heatwaves—often drive speculative trading. The market may anticipate stress well before actual yield reports come out. This behavior is where we see the beginnings of correlation between temperature and market movement. 3. Quantifying Weather Impact on Soybean Futures To test how meaningful these heat-driven narratives are, we categorized weekly temperatures into three buckets: Low: Below the 25th percentile of weekly temperature readings Normal: Between the 25th and 75th percentile High: Above the 75th percentile We then calculated weekly returns of Soybean Futures (ZS) across these categories. The results? Despite the modest visual differences in distribution, the statistical analysis revealed a clear pattern: Returns during high-temperature weeks were significantly different from those during low-temperature weeks, with a p-value of 3.7e-11. This means the likelihood of such a difference occurring by chance is effectively zero. But here’s the catch—the difference in mean return was present, yes, but not huge. And visually, the boxplots showed overlapping quartiles. This disconnect between statistical and visual clarity is exactly what makes this insight subtle, yet valuable. 4. What the Data Really Tells Us At first glance, the boxplots comparing soybean futures returns across temperature categories don’t scream “market-moving force.” The medians of weekly returns during Low, Normal, and High temperature periods are closely clustered. The interquartile ranges (IQRs) overlap significantly. Outliers are present in every category. So why the statistical significance? It’s a matter of consistency across time. The soybean market doesn’t suddenly explode every time it gets hot—but across hundreds of data points, there’s a slightly more favorable distribution of returns during hotter weeks. It’s not dramatic, but it’s reliable enough to warrant strategic awareness. This is where experienced traders can sharpen their edge. If you’re already using technical analysis, seasonal patterns, or supply-demand forecasts, this weather-based nuance can serve as a quiet confirmation or subtle filter. 5. Why This Still Matters for Traders In markets like soybeans, where prices can respond to multiple fundamental factors—currency shifts, export numbers, oilseed competition—small weather patterns might seem like background noise. But when viewed statistically, these small effects can become the grain of edge that separates average positioning from smart exposure. For example: Volatility tends to rise during high-heat weeks, even when average return shifts are small. Institutional players may rebalance positions based on crop health assumptions before USDA reports arrive. Weather trading algos can push prices slightly more aggressively during risk-prone periods. In short, traders don’t need weather to predict price. But by knowing what weather has historically meant, they can adjust sizing, bias, or timing with greater precision. 6. Contract Specs: Standard vs. Micro Soybeans Accessing the soybean futures market doesn’t have to require big institutional capital. With the launch of Micro Soybean Futures (MZS), traders can participate at a more granular scale. Here are the current CME Group specs: 📌 Contract Specs for Soybean Futures (ZS): Symbol: ZS Contract size: 5,000 bushels Tick size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Initial margin: ~$2,100 (varies by broker and volatility) 📌 Micro Soybean Futures (MZS): Symbol: MZS Contract size: 500 bushels Tick size: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50 Initial margin: ~$210 The micro-sized contract allows traders to scale into positions, especially when exploring signals like weather impact. It also enables more nuanced strategies—such as partial hedges or volatility exposure—without the capital intensity of full-size contracts. 7. Conclusion: A Nuanced Edge for Weather-Aware Traders When it comes to soybeans and temperature, the story isn’t one of obvious crashes or dramatic spikes. It’s a story of consistent, statistically measurable edges that can quietly inform better trading behavior. Yes, the return differences may look small on a chart. But over time, in leveraged markets with seasonality and fundamental noise, even a few extra basis points in your favor—combined with smarter sizing and timing—can shift your performance curve meaningfully. Using tools like Micro Soybean Futures, and being aware of technical frameworks, traders can efficiently adapt to subtle but reliable signals like temperature-based volatility. And remember: this article is just one piece in a multi-part series exploring the intersection of weather and agricultural trading. The next piece might just provide the missing link to complete your edge. Stay tuned. 🌾📈 When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by traddictiv
Time for a Rise in Oil Prices $$$When analyzing the recent movements in oil prices through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, it appears that the current structure is completing an ABC corrective formation. Initially, the A wave has developed as a strong upward 1-5 impulse structure. The B wave evolved through a classic ABC correction, pushing prices down to the support area marked as (B). Following this correction, early signals indicate the initiation of the C wave. In this context, the technical structure suggests a potential new upward momentum in oil prices with the activation of the C wave. The target zone for the C wave should be monitored in consideration of the existing trendlines and historical resistance levels. Nevertheless, under the current market conditions characterized by high volatility, it is critical to monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the C wave and ensure key support levels are maintained.
TVC:UKOILLong
by kofc
WTI above $75 on fears of US involvement in Israel-Iran conflictThe Israel-Iran situation is quite different this time and with Trump announcing that *we* now have full control over Iranian skies, suggesting the US is entering the fray – hardly a surprise to be honest - this is not going to end well. The conflict may get far worse in the short-term, and this will send shockwaves through the oil markets – especially if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hurmuz. Oil prices could easily spike to $100 and higher in the worst-case scenario. So, the situation is quite serious, unfortunately. Let's hope that it quickly de-escalates and lives are not lost. But make no mistake, this could get really big - especially with headlines like these coming out in the last few minutes: *US OFFICIALS SAY TRUMP 'SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING' STRIKE ON IRAN: AXIOS; *TRUMP TO MAKE POLICY DECISION ON ISRAEL-IRAN: AXIOS *IRAN WILL SOON LAUNCH 'PUNITIVE' OPERATION AGAINST ISRAEL: IRNA The picture is looking quite grim, unfortunately. by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Falling below 3380,testing 3365,the low position remains bullish📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East 2. Iran nuclear talks 3. Retail sales data 📈 Market analysis: After rebounding to the 3400 line, gold encountered resistance and fell back to test the support level of 3380. Although it was very close to the point of 3405 we gave, I did not enter the trade because gold has been in the middle section in the short term and has not rebounded to the ideal point. There are too many long orders at high levels in gold. The international situation is so tense that gold is still slowly declining, but the geopolitical situation is still continuing. In addition, the retail sales data is bullish. Then, as the trading strategy given at noon, it is expected to test the short-term support of 3365-3355 below. I will consider going long in this range 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3365-3355 TP 3380-3390-3400 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
PAAS – High Tight Flag with Silver TailwindsPan American Silver ( NYSE:PAAS ) is forming a high tight flag — one of the most explosive continuation patterns — just as silver starts heating up. 🔹 High Tight Flag Formation NYSE:PAAS ripped with momentum and is now consolidating in a tight, bullish range. This is exactly what you want to see — shallow pullback, tight candles, and holding near highs. 🔹 Sector Momentum: Silver Heating Up AMEX:SLV and /SI are pushing toward multi-year breakout levels. NYSE:PAAS is riding that same energy, and any continuation in silver could ignite this setup. My Trade Plan: 1️⃣ Starter Position: Looking to enter on strength through the top of the flag. 2️⃣ Add on Confirmation: Add size on volume surge and breakout follow-through. 3️⃣ Stop Loss: Below flag base — keeping it tight and defined. Why I Love This Setup: High tight flags are low-risk, high-reward when paired with macro momentum. Silver is gaining strength — NYSE:PAAS could lead the miner group if this breaks clean. Strong structure, clean risk, macro fuel = great setup.
NYSE:PAASLong
by kunal00
Is gold (XAUUSD) building up for a possible push higher?With the economic data sets, which we are getting and will be getting this week, all eyes on gold, and its possible move to the all-time high. Apart from this, the geopolitical tensions are also something that is fueling gold demand. But what are the technical saying? Let's take a look. TVC:GOLD FX_IDC:XAUUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom
GOLD BULLISH OUTLOOK📊 Gold Market Analysis – Bullish Outlook Developing In yesterday’s market, we observed gold take out a key lower liquidity in the 3370s range. This liquidity sweep typically indicates the clearing of weak hands and positions the market for a potential reversal or continuation of a larger trend. Following this move, gold has begun to establish a bullish trend stance, as the market structure shows signs of strength and renewed buying interest. The rejection of the 3370s level suggests that buyers are stepping in aggressively, potentially setting a solid foundation for an upward move. From a technical perspective, this positions gold for a potential climb toward the 3440s, which serves as a short- to mid-term target. If the bullish momentum continues to build — particularly if it’s supported by favorable macroeconomic data or weakening in the U.S. dollar — we could see price action surge above the 3440s, opening up further upside potential. This developing bullish scenario has been highlighted and discussed in the analysis. Traders and investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, as well as any macro developments that could reinforce or challenge this upward trajectory.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by elite_trader_1-
XAUUSD Strong break-out ahead to $3700.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a Channel Up, while being supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is similar to the December 19 2024 - January 30 2025 Channel Up, which when it broke above the previous Higher High Resistance, it rose straight to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, as long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are looking for a medium-term bullish break-out, possible by the end of July, targeting at least 3700. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
XAUUSD 16 June – Liquidity Trap or Smart Money Rotation? XAUUSD 16 June – Liquidity Trap or Smart Money Rotation? Gold surprised many traders with a sharp spike during the Asian session, only to reverse aggressively hours later. While headlines screamed “war” and panic, the price behavior told a different story—one of strategic distribution and smart money rotation... 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Context Geopolitical triggers: Rising tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran) and political assassinations triggered emotional buying across safe-haven assets like gold and oil. Institutional rotation: Major funds appear to be offloading gold positions to rebalance into equities (in correction) and oil (strong upside potential). Market narrative: News-induced FOMO drives retail into overbought zones, allowing larger players to exit at premium prices. 📈 Technical Overview (M30 Structure) Price Action: Gold tapped into major resistance at 3456–3458, showing an aggressive rejection shortly after. EMA Behavior: EMAs (13/34/89/200) are flattening across M15 and M30—early signs of a possible bearish crossover. Volume Drop: Declining volume after the spike suggests buyer exhaustion, reinforcing the idea of a bull trap. Fair Value Gap (FVG): A visible liquidity void remains below the 3390 area. Price often returns to fill these zones. 🎯 Trading Plan for Today ✅ Scenario A: Buy from Demand Zone (Liquidity Fill) Entry: 3383 – 3385 Stop Loss: 3377 Targets: 3386 → 3390 → 3394 → 3398 → 3402 → 3406 → 3410+ 📌 Best executed during London or NY session if price shows absorption or reversal confirmation. ❌ Scenario B: Sell from Resistance Only on Clear Rejection Entry: 3456 – 3458 Stop Loss: 3462 Targets: 3452 → 3448 → 3444 → 3440 → 3435 → 3430 ⚠️ Only enter shorts if clear bearish engulfing or pin-bar setup forms near resistance zone. 🧠 Market Psychology Retail FOMO is being exploited by larger players to exit risk positions. Liquidity engineering is likely in play—smart money drives price up on headlines, then exits into buyer momentum. Equity & Oil rotation signals a shift in institutional preference short-term. 📌 Final Thoughts This isn’t a time to chase breakouts. Gold is entering a volatile re-accumulation phase where news is being weaponized to induce emotional trading. The real edge lies in waiting for price to come to your level and only executing with confirmation. 🎯 Zone to Watch: 3383 – 3385 📉 Avoid chasing moves 📊 Respect your SL & manage risk like a pro — 🧭 Stay patient. The next big move will reward those with discipline and timing.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 67.337. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 69.433 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILLong
by SignalProvider
1
Toward $3,500? Gold Faces Key Policy DecisionsGold is currently trading around $3,438 and continues to show positive momentum. After a week focused on inflation data, the gold market is now shifting its attention to interest rate decisions and policy guidance from major central banks. The week begins with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of economic activity in the New York region. Following that, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision, and investors are closely watching to see whether the BoJ will continue normalizing its interest rates. Next comes U.S. retail sales data for May — a crucial gauge of consumer spending, which remains the backbone of the U.S. economy. Any signs of weakness in consumer activity could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the main focus remains the upcoming Fed meeting. While markets widely expect rates to be held steady, investors are awaiting clear signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the path and timing of potential rate cuts ahead. According to Kitco’s weekly gold survey, professional analysts remain optimistic about gold’s outlook, while retail investors are showing more caution. With central bank decisions approaching and geopolitical tensions lingering, investors need to stay alert. Risks such as rising social unrest in the U.S., escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and ongoing de-dollarization trends are all fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Given expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady, gold maintains its defensive appeal. In my view, the precious metal may soon retest its highs near $3,500, as its role as a global safe haven becomes even more pronounced amid mounting uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Edward_TradingFX
1
Oil Rebounds to $59 as US Inventories Drop – Reversal Ahead?After recent declines, crude oil futures (CL1!) staged a modest recovery during Thursday’s session, trading near $59.10 per barrel. The rebound comes as US crude inventories unexpectedly dropped, easing concerns about oversupply and providing a short-term lift to prices. Key Drivers Behind the Rebound US Inventory Drawdown – The latest EIA report showed a decline in crude stockpiles, signaling stronger demand and helping prices stabilize. Technical Support Holds Firm – The bounce aligns with a critical daily demand zone, which previously acted as a strong support level on the weekly chart. Market Sentiment Shifts – While retail traders remain bearish, commercial traders (often considered "smart money") are increasing long positions, hinting at a potential trend reversal. Traders should watch for follow-through buying to confirm whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a larger reversal. Bottom Line: Oil’s rebound is fueled by fundamentals (lower inventories) and technicals (strong demand zone). With commercial traders betting on higher prices, the stage may be set for a bullish reversal—if buyers sustain momentum. ✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXN1
2
3400 3380 are the two points that determine the trend of gold📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data, initial jobless claims and geopolitical situation will be the core factors affecting global markets. In the short term, gold rebounded after hitting the 3383 line. This round of decline was relatively rapid. At the same time, there is a certain resistance at the 3405-3410 line above in the short term, which is also the main reason for our long orders to leave the market. In the short term, it is recommended to first look at the support situation at the 3380 line below, and then enter the long order after obtaining effective support above this position. On the contrary, if it falls below this short-term support, the gold price is expected to fall to the 3350 mark! For the evening layout, it is recommended to focus on the 3400 long-short watershed, pay attention to the 3410 line of resistance, and pay attention to the 3380 line of support below. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3390-3380 TP 3400-3410-3420 SELL 3400-3390 TP 3380-3360-3350 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Gold XAUUSD Move 16 June 2025Market Structure: The market isin a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows until a recent break of the ascending trendline, signaling a short-term structural weakness. Current price is in a retracement phase, heading towards previous demand zones. 🔹 Zone 1 (3408–3414): Confluence of: Broken trendline retest (former support). Minor order block / demand zone. Overlapping price reaction area. Risk: This zone may act as a liquidity inducement before price sweeps deeper into Zone 2. Entry trigger: Bullish engulfing or LTF market structure shift on 1m/5m. 🔹 Zone 2 (3380–3384): Stronger demand zone: Aligned with previous accumulation base. Larger imbalance (FVG-type area) and bullish impulsive origin. More convincing for high-RR entries. Higher probability: If Zone 1 fails or only wicks price, Zone 2 may provide the main entry opportunity. Entry trigger: Shift in LTF structure with volume spike or breaker flip. ✅ Trade Signal Suggestions 🟦 Setup 1: Buy from Zone 1 Entry: 3410 (upon bullish confirmation) SL: 3400 (below structure low) TP: 3434 (prior high) RR: ~2.4R Note: Only take if price forms bullish structure (MSS or BOS) on lower timeframe. 🟦 Setup 2: Buy from Zone 2 Entry: 3380/3384 (upon confirmation) SL: 3372 (below demand zone) TP: 3411 or 3434 (scalp to intraday swing) RR: ~1:3 or better Note: Wait for clean rejection or reversal candle from this zone. ⚠️ Risk Management Risk 0.5–1% per trade. Use entry confirmation such as: Bullish engulfing Fair value gap reaction Break of internal structure
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by QuinnReed_Charts