The best opportunity is when crude oil falls
💡Message Strategy
Crude oil futures fell in the European session on Monday (June 16), giving up earlier gains, as a new round of hostilities between Israel and Iran had limited impact on oil production and exports.
WTI briefly rebounded to $77.49, close to last week's high, which was also our second profit target, but failed to break through the key resistance level near $78.09.
Oil prices surged 7% on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, pushing crude to its highest level since January. However, Monday's reversal reflected the lack of immediate threats to supply routes, especially the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran's production drops sharply due to the conflict, the global oil supply buffer will be quickly exhausted and oil prices may usher in a new round of surges. Faced with this complex situation, investors, oil-producing countries and consumers need to be prepared to meet the possible energy storm.
This is also the reason why we repeatedly emphasize that crude oil should be long when it falls. We can foresee its upward momentum, and the pullback is only in a moment without any signs.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued to fluctuate upward, and the price near 74 was tested. The moving average system relies on the bullish arrangement of oil prices, and the short-term objective trend direction remains upward.
In the morning, the oil price hit a new high near 75.30, and then fell back and closed with a negative real candlestick. The short-term momentum is still bullish, and it is expected that the trend of crude oil will continue to maintain a high-level oscillating upward rhythm.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:69.50-70.50
The first target is around 73.00
The second target is around 75.00
Commodities
GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,622 (UPDATE)Gold moving perfectly, according to our bullish analysis which I posted for you all last week. Gold been bullish for a technical perspective for a while, now we're seeing the elite push out the fundamental factor of the Israel attack on Iran, to help Gold keep moving up.
Gold is still within a 'Bullish Accumulation' phase, hence why it's not moving up very strong. Bare in mind, we are in the FINAL WAVE 5 bullish move on a HTF, so we can experience choppy price action.
WTI rebounds from key support as Middle East tensions intensifyThe latest escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran initially didn't cause much panic in the oil market. After spiking initially to an overnight high of $75.70, WTI has since been on a decline, before hitting a low so far of $68.50. That represents a 9.5% drop from the overnight high, which is massive. Investors have been pricing out the risk of of oil supplies being meaningfully impacted. But the latest air strikes on Tehran and Israel declaring that it had "full aerial operational control" over Tehran means tension are rising another bombardment of Tel Aviv was most likely on the agenda for Iran. Oil has been bouncing back as a result. So far, it hasn't impacted equities, with major US indices remaining near their session highs. But will that change if oil extends it recovery?
Key support at $68.60 has been defended as we can see on the hourly chart. $70.00/$70.10 is now reclaimed, which is a bullish sign. Resistance is seen around $72.20. Above that, $73.00 will be in focus.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SILVER: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 36.344 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD's room for growth is still wide, new all-time peakThe Israel-Iran conflict has increased the safe-haven role of gold, while pushing up oil prices, putting further pressure on inflation alongside the tariff pressure from the Trump administration.
Although the Israel-Iran conflict may continue to push gold prices higher this week, investors should be cautious and avoid chasing the development of this conflict. Because, gold price increases due to geopolitical events are usually short-lived.
In addition to the Israel-Iran conflict, markets will witness a speech by Fed Chairman Powell this week. With the Trump administration’s tariff policy still complicated and the Israel-Iran conflict escalating, the Fed Chairman may continue to signal that interest rates will remain unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. However, there is growing speculation that the Fed may begin laying the groundwork for a rate cut later this year.
In the short term, gold prices may be less affected by the Fed's monetary policy. Investors will pay more attention to the Trump administration's tariff policy, especially when the 90-day tariff suspension is about to end.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Technical analysis still shows an upward trend in gold prices in the medium and long term, although gold prices will inevitably have periods of adjustment and accumulation, especially when the Israel-Iran conflict subsides.
Accordingly, if the gold price surpasses 3,446 USD/oz, it may continue to increase to the 3,500 USD/oz area. Conversely, if the gold price trades below 3,446 USD/oz, it may adjust to around 3,344 - 3,373 USD/oz, or even lower.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD
Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3485 - 3483⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3489
→Take Profit 1 3477
↨
→Take Profit 2 3471
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3417 - 3419⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3413
→Take Profit 1 3425
↨
→Take Profit 2 3431
USOIL Will Move Higher! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 71.393.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 78.089 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Beyond the News: Why I Trust the Charts When Trading GoldBased on the current structure, I believe gold is in the fifth wave of a larger Elliott Wave formation. On the higher time frame, the price action appears to be contained within a channel that resembles a leading diagonal pattern—where Wave 1 is typically the longest. From this perspective, I anticipate a potential retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the most recent upward move, or a test of the lower boundary of the channel before a reversal may occur.
My trading plan involves two potential entry strategies:
Enter at the 0.618 Fib retracement with a stop-loss set near the 0.881 level.
Wait for a bounce off the lower channel, followed by a pullback and a breakout above the start of the pullback before entering the position.
While no trader can be right all the time, having a structured plan with predefined take-profit and stop-loss levels is key to effective risk management and long-term survival in the markets.
Why I Favor Technical Over Fundamental Analysis
For those wondering why I rely more on technical analysis—especially Elliott Wave Theory—over fundamental news, here’s my reasoning:
I’ve found that news and earnings-based trades often behave irrationally. A company may report strong earnings and guidance, only to see its stock sell off, fake a rally the next day, and then sell off again. Conversely, a company with poor earnings may drop ahead of the report, only to rally immediately after. These inconsistencies made it difficult to build a reliable strategy based solely on fundamental data.
Over time, I observed that despite news events, the market often completes its technical structure—such as Elliott Wave formations and Fibonacci cycles—before fully reacting to news. In these cases, fundamental developments tend to accelerate or confirm the direction already implied by the technical setup, rather than override it.
Gold is no exception. While it's common to assume that the S&P 500 (ES) and gold move in opposite directions due to risk-on/risk-off dynamics, I’ve noticed that they can trend in the same direction when their respective Elliott Wave structures align. This doesn't eliminate the inverse correlation concept entirely, but it highlights the importance of integrating technical analysis into a fundamentally driven view for more precise entries and exits.
Ultimately, I view fundamentals as the fuel, and technicals as the engine that defines the path.
GOLD LIVE TRADE SIGNAL – June 16, 2025 (Price: $3415)🔵 Setup: BUY on Breakout — targeting continuation after corrective pullback
📉 Market Structure:
Bullish impulse completed a clear 5-wave Elliott structure
Current pullback forming a potential Wave 2 or IV
Price sitting above the breakout zone (~3391.6 support)
✅ Trade Details:
Entry: Buy @ 3422 (on bullish candle close above local resistance zone)
Stop Loss: 3408 (below consolidation low)
Target 1: 3445
Target 2: 3468
RRR: ~1:2.3
Confidence: HIGH — strong momentum wave + clean structure
🔍 Technical Confluence:
Wave (2) retracement respected
Channel breakout held (blue ascending)
Minor resistance around 3420 is being retested
Volume likely to spike in NY session
Caution: Avoid entry if price breaks below 3391.6 – would invalidate short-term structure.
GOLD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,419.53
Target Level: 3,348.85
Stop Loss: 3,466.65
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 6h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Silver Gains on Tensions, Eyes on FedFriday’s strong U.S. data may support the dollar, as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June from 52.2, beating forecasts of 53.5 and marking the first gain in six months.
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand, especially for silver. Israel struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites Friday, killing military officials. On Sunday, Iran began its fourth phase of response, warning of firm retaliation to further Israeli actions.
Markets now turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. While rates are expected to stay unchanged, futures still price in two cuts this year, possibly starting in September, supported by last week’s soft inflation data.
Resistance is set at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
XAUUAD UPDATE 16- 6 +2025The chart you provided is a 45-minute time frame analysis for Gold CFDs (US$/OZ). Here's a breakdown of the key elements and what they suggest:
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Current Price
$3,414.93, down -18.42 (-0.54%)
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Analysis Summary
Price Action
The price has recently rejected from a resistance zone (around $3,445–$3,450).
It is currently pulling back, heading downward from this resistance.
Support Zones Highlighted
Multiple horizontal yellow zones mark previous support/resistance levels.
The key immediate support level lies near $3,400–$3,405.
A deeper support area is visible around $3,360–$3,365, and further below near $3,320.
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Forecast Indication (Based on Markings)
A short-term pullback (blue arrow up) may retest the breakdown level (~$3,430).
Then, a potential drop toward the next support at $3,360 is expected (blue arrow down).
A bearish continuation scenario is emphasized with a red downward arrow, suggesting price may head further down to the $3,320 area if $3,360 fails to hold.
---
Implications for Traders
Bearish Bias: Suggested by the forecast arrows and recent resistance rejection.
Potential Setup:
Short on pullback near $3,430 (if price fails to reclaim this zone).
Target: $3,360 and possibly $3,320.
Stop-loss: Above $3,450 resistance.
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Would you like a trading plan or signal based on this analysis?
Crude oil continues to decline - latest market trend analysisThe international oil market is currently experiencing a classic upward cycle of "geopolitical risk premium". In the short term, oil prices will be highly sensitive to any news regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil has continued its volatile upward trend in the short term, surging to test the price near $74. The moving average system is bullishly aligned with oil prices, and the objective short-term trend direction remains upward.
In early trading, oil prices hit a new high near $75.30, but then surged and fell, closing with a bearish real body K-line. The short-term momentum still favors the bulls, and it is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to maintain a high-level volatile upward rhythm.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@68.5.0-69.5
TP:73.0-74.0
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
GOLD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,393.80 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,414.38.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open
The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower.
At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year.
Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory.
________________________________________
1. What Sparked the Spike?
1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil.
2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos.
3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm.
________________________________________
2. How Real Is the Supply Risk?
While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now:
• Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia.
• Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.”
• Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations.
In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel.
________________________________________
3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn
Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes:
Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook
OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE
Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike
U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55
Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness
Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness
Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls.
________________________________________
4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent
1. Escalation (20 % probability)
• Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic
• 3 mbpd disrupted for one month
• Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10
• Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting
2. Containment (60 % probability)
• Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed
• Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July
• By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65
3. Detente (20 % probability)
• U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged
• Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks
• Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter
________________________________________
5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire
The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying:
• Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness.
• PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases.
• ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week.
Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity.
________________________________________
6. Cross-Asset Implications
1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology.
2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance.
3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction.
________________________________________
7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call?
• OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely.
• U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way.
• Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock.
________________________________________
8. Trading and Hedging Playbook
Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels
Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30
WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20
Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390
Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20
Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads
Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs.
________________________________________
9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile
Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping:
• OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y.
• China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl.
• India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth.
On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price.
________________________________________
10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast
Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost?
2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days
2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None
2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted
Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks.
________________________________________
11. Outlook Summary
• Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34.
• Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth.
• Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts.
•
________________________________________
12. Conclusion
The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end.
For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
GOLD Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,327.72.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,385.41.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
xauusd Entry Level:
3,416.000 USD
Price is currently at 3,425.640 USD, so the entry was already triggered and the position is active and in profit.
Stop-Loss (SL):
3,407.500 USD
Positioned below the minor FVG area; protects against deeper downside if structure fails.
Take-Profit Targets (TP):
TP1: 3,423.000 USD (short-term scalp zone — already reached)
TP2: 3,439.000 USD (medium-term resistance)
TP3: 3,452.500 USD (strong upside target; likely near a previous high)
Shift Stop to entry after reaching TP1
Today's Crude Oil Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsFrom a daily chart perspective, the violent rally in USOIL driven by external factors has completely disrupted prior technical expectations. The sharp surge has also significantly exhausted future upside potential, explaining today's gap-up and subsequent decline. With minimal likelihood of near-term de-escalation in the Iran situation, USOIL is likely to remain bullish. However, severe overbought conditions on technical charts have disrupted structural expectations, necessitating a price correction.
Technically, the $70-$75 range serves as a reasonable short-term consolidation zone, contingent on no severe escalation in Iran tensions. Given the high probability of worsening tensions, USOIL may retest $75 and even challenge $80 driven by geopolitical developments.
Thus, while the market remains focused on Iran-related risks, the short-term bias remains bullish. Avoid chasing the rally recklessly. Focus on the $70.5-$71.5 pullback zone early in the week—consider long entries only after price consolidation in this area.
USOIL
buy@70.50-71.50
tp:74-76-78
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold becomes a strategic anchorPrecious metals continue to climb as investors rush into safe-haven assets following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, sparking fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Many now view the confrontation between Israel and Iran as the most significant geopolitical event since the Russia–Ukraine war. In times of economic turbulence and geopolitical uncertainty, gold once again stands out as a reliable store of value.
Adding to the bullish case, weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data earlier this week has strengthened expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This shift has put downward pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, giving gold even more room to rise.
From my perspective, when geopolitics and monetary policy both signal instability, gold is no longer just a defensive hedge — it becomes a proactive strategy. Holding gold right now is not just about safety — it’s about positioning for a new phase where capital seeks true value and trusted refuge.
Gold rallies amid global unrestGold continues to assert its strong position as it surged further last week, reaching $3,440 per ounce by the weekend. This upward momentum has been driven by two key factors: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates.
Many experts believe the bullish trend is likely to extend into this week, with the next psychological target set at $3,500. That said, a brief pullback cannot be ruled out after such a rapid ascent.
From my perspective, following the recent period of consolidation, gold appears to be regaining strength for another attempt at new highs. The ongoing global political uncertainty continues to fuel demand for this safe-haven asset.
As gold pushes higher, investors should ride the trend—but with caution. Staying closely informed on Fed policy shifts and geopolitical developments will be essential for making well-timed, rational trading decisions in this sensitive market environment.