DAX Testing its All Time High but upside may be limited!DAX had an excellent run since our previous buy signal on March 21 (see chart below) that hit its target yesterday:
The index is right now moments away from hitting the 16300 Resistance, which is the All Time High (ATH) of November 19 2021. The long-term pattern since the end of October 2022 has been a Channel Up and within it, three Megaphone patterns have guided the price to each Higher High before an eventual correction back towards its bottom. The symmetry is evident even on the +10.80% rallies that it has done three times.
The 1D RSI usually hits the 76.00 Resistance and then after a series of Lower Highs, we get the top confirmation to sell. Right now the RSI has just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier. In our opinion the upside is limited to around 16400 but as mentioned, we will only sell after we see Lower Highs forming. On the first Channel Up pull-back, it was the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that supported, on the second it was the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and this time it should be lower. Our early projection is 15500.
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D-DAX
DAX to retest all-time highs?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
16301 has been pivotal.
Short-term momentum is bullish.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
We look for a temporary move higher.
We look to Sell at 16297 (stop at 16377)
Our profit targets will be 16097 and 16047
Resistance: 16250 / 16300 / 16400
Support: 16200 / 16140 / 16100
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are we close to the absolute top on Dax ?we could be close to reach the absolute top on Dax !!! get ready for skydiving
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 17/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see three ways to enter a trade.
DAX: Recession second wave. Vix exp. risk release.Recession second wave. Vix exp. risk release.
VIX exp 17e.
Options is getting volatile. can be sold today and market will crash before even vix exp.
SQQQ is getting much inflows these days and apple and big tech stocks get heavy shorts these past days into vix exp.
Biggest PUT exp is 19e. We need a lot of downside into that to keep options worth.
CFD Update: GER30 set for a breakout?Today's focus GER30
Pattern – Range – diagonal consolidation pattern
Possible targets – Upside, 15,985 – 16,160; Downside, 15,718 – 15,530
Support – 15,740
Resistance – 15,965
Hi, and thanks for looking at today's update. Our focus is on the GER30 as price sits in a range but has also formed a wedge/diagonal pattern that could signify movement to come. It's an interesting set-up as even if we see a break of the pattern price still has the range to contend with.
US futures are lower, and we are seeing the GER30 lower at this stage, so could we see a move lower today? If so, sellers will need to break support to get a breakout really going. On the other hand, buyers will need to do the same to resistance to get their move going.
US Retail Sales could play a part. It’s due today at 10:30 pm AEST (8:30 am EST)
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 16/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see three ways to enter a trade.
DAX: Holding the 4H MA50 but has one more Resistance to break.DAX is on its 4H MA50 with the 4H MA200 on a parallel move to the bottom of the Channel Up. Both the 1D and 4H (RSI = 52.763, MACD = 7.300, ADX = 19.891) are neutral so we will only take short term, confirmed trades after breakouts.
A crossing over R1 (even better if the 4H RSI also crosses over its LH trendline) is a buy breakout signal (TP = 16,100) and further of the HH trendline, a buy signal targeting the All Time High (TP = 16,300).
We will go short on the other hand, if the index closes under S1 and target S2 (TP = 15,500).
Prior idea:
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GER30 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?GER30 is close to a key resistance level and potentially reverse from here. We could see price move down to our take profit target.
Entry: 16007.70
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance at the recent swing-high
Stop Loss: 16109.20
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension
Take Profit: 15707.45
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 15/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see two ways to enter a trade.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Sunday 14/05/2023A pullback in the higher timeframe seems likely. We have 5 waves up as an impulse with divergence in both the daily and 4h timeframe.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 12/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we can still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. For today, we see one way to enter a trade.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 11/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. We see two potential ways to enter a trade.
FDAX UpdateIndicators are neutral but Europe is acting a little bearish, especially since they've been pumping everything until now, lol.
Don't recommend holding a long position tonight
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 10/05/2023Trading day preparation. Although pullback is expected in the higher timeframe, we probably still go up in the lower timeframe. We discuss several scenarios that could play out. We see two potential ways to enter a trade. Inflation data is released today, only trade at the extremes.
DAX Megaphone still intact. Breakout and scalping options.DAX is trading in a Megaphone, currently supported by the MA50 (4h).
Scalping is recommended inside this pattern and breakout trading outside it.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes over the Megaphone.
2. Sell if it closes under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 16200 (+12.17% buy leg).
2. 15200 (lower Support Zone).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is inside a clear Rectangle whose bottom and top can help with scalping inside the Megaphone.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
