Get started

Dollar

Goldman and BofA agree: The dollar is losing its edgeGoldman Sachs now expects the EUR/USD to hit 1.20 by the end of the year. While this prediction draws comparisons to the 2017 rally in the pair, Goldman notes a key difference. This time, the pricing reflects pessimism in the US dollar, rather than optimism in the euro. Bank of America seemingly agrees and warns that even a “hawkish” dot plot at this week’s FOMC meeting, where Fed officials signal fewer rate cuts, may only cause a brief bout of euro weakness against the dollar. EUR/USD has recently broken out of a long-term descending triangle pattern, which capped price action from mid-April through early June, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ and BofA’s view of a broad EUR strength/ USD weakness. This recent pullback to the 1.1480 area is a retest of former resistance turned support, suggesting a potential continuation pattern if buyers defend this level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Tariff uncertainty keeps weighing on the dollar. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly amid signs of potential negotiations, prompting markets to shift their focus back to the upcoming FOMC and tariffs. Following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, President Trump stated that a trade deal with Canada could be reached within weeks, and also confirmed that a trade agreement with the UK has been signed. Meanwhile, markets are almost certain that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC, with the probability priced at 99.8%. Wells Fargo expects the inflation outlook to rise due to the delayed impact of higher tariffs, projecting that the year-end median federal funds rate will climb by 25bps to 4.125%. DXY is consolidating within the 97.50–98.50 range, remaining below both EMAs, which suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may retreat to 97.50. Conversely, if DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.50 and the descending trendline, the index could gain upward momentum toward 99.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
5
EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on. The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16 Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene. For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value. The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness. So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time. Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy. Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news . Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar. The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party. On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America. US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut? US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve. So what does the market do? It prices in a cut. Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny. ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises? Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency. Here’s why it’s rising instead: Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon. The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms. Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life. Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out. Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction. From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.” Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
by TradingView
16
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 12, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening for the second day in a row against a weakened US Dollar (USD) and is moving further away from the two-week low reached the day before. The market's initial reaction to news of trade talks between the US and China faded rather quickly after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, curbs investors' appetite for risky assets and maintains the yen's status as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the yen is further supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may tighten monetary conditions amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. On the other hand, the US Dollar looks vulnerable near one-month lows as weaker US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, led the USD/JPY pair to fall below 143.50 in the last hour. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.30, SL 144.30, TP 141.30
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Uncertainty: The Dollar's Unexpected Ally?The recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the Israeli shekel (ILS) serves as a potent illustration of the dollar's enduring role as a safe-haven currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Investors consistently gravitate towards the perceived stability of the dollar during periods of global unrest, leading to its appreciation against more volatile and susceptible currencies, such as the shekel. A significant driver of this dollar demand stems from the precarious security landscape in the Middle East. Reports detailing Israel's potential operation into Iran, coupled with the United States' proactive measures like authorizing voluntary departures of military dependents and preparing for a partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy, signal Washington's anticipation of potential Iranian retaliation. Assertive declarations from Iranian officials, explicitly threatening US military bases and claiming intelligence on Israeli nuclear facilities, further amplify regional risks, compelling investors to seek the dollar's perceived safety. Compounding this geopolitical volatility is the stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy. Hurdles persist not only over core issues, such as uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, but also over the basic scheduling of talks, with both sides expressing diminishing confidence in a resolution. The recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, where the US and European allies introduced a non-compliance resolution against Iran, adds another layer of diplomatic tension, threatening increased sanctions or nuclear expansion and reinforcing the perception of a volatile environment that inherently strengthens the dollar. These escalating tensions have tangible economic repercussions, further fueling investor flight to safety. The immediate aftermath has seen a significant increase in oil prices due to anticipated supply disruptions and a notable depreciation of the Iranian rial against the dollar. Warnings from maritime authorities regarding increased military activity in critical waterways also reflect broad market apprehension. During such periods of instability, capital naturally flows into assets perceived as low-risk, making the US dollar, backed by the world's largest economy and its status as a global reserve currency, the primary beneficiary. This flight-to-safety dynamic during major regional conflicts involving key global players consistently bolsters the dollar's value.
Long
by UDIS_View
DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase. We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction. On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
11
EUR/USD tests three-year ceiling Aside from a brief spike in April, EUR/USD has remained below 1.1500 for over three years. Sellers again have had to defend the zone following the weaker-than-expected US CPI release. The main resistance zone potentially spans all the way up to 1.1573 (the April high). Some indicators suggest potential room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet reached overbought territory, and the Daily Moving Average is positively sloped. A break below the 4-hour Moving Average could trigger more selling pressure and a potential correction.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D11 Y25👀 USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W24 D11 Y25 🔥HOT PICK ALERT 🔥 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅15’ order block ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT