Dollar
DXY BANK VAULT BREAK-IN: Your Dollar Index Profit Blueprint🚨 DXY BANK HEIST: Dollar Index Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🚨
🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟
Attention, Market Robbers & Dollar Bandits! 🏦💰💸
Using the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, we’re plotting a DXY (Dollar Index) bank heist—time to go LONG and escape near the ATR danger zone. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But the real robbery happens when weak hands panic. Take profits fast—you’ve earned this loot! 🏆💵
📈 ENTRY: BREAKOUT OR GET LEFT BEHIND!
Wait for DXY to cross 99.300 → Then strike hard!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
Buy Limit Orders: Sneak in on 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs).
Pro Tip: Set a BREAKOUT ALARM—don’t miss the heist!
🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET LOCKED UP!
For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout—amateurs get caught!
Thief’s Safe Spot: Nearest swing low (2H chart).
Rebels: Place SL wherever… but your funeral! ⚰️
🏴☠️ TARGET: 102.300 (Bank Vault Cracked!)
Scalpers: Long only! Trail your SL like a pro thief.
Swing Traders: Ride this heist for maximum payout.
💵 MARKET CONTEXT: DXY IS BULLISH (But Traps Await!)
Fundamentals: COT Reports, Fed Plays, Geopolitics.
Intermarket Sentiment: Bonds, Gold, Stocks—all connected.
Full Analysis: Check our bio0 linkks 👉🔗 (Don’t trade blind!).
⚠️ ALERT: NEWS = VOLATILITY = TRAP ZONE!
Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
Lock profits with trailing stops—greed gets you caught!
💥 SUPPORT THE HEIST (OR GET LEFT BROKE!)
Smash that Boost Button 💖→ Stronger team = bigger scores!
Steal profits daily with the Thief Trading Style. 🎯🚀
Next heist coming soon… stay ready! 🤑🐱👤🔥
Dollar Bullish Correction To $103 - $105While we expected to see some Dollar upside in Q2, the economy was in such a bad state that the Dollar could not hold its value. Since the start of 2025 the Dollar is down 12% and this is only the beginning.
I believe we will see more downside in the future. But for the coming quarter there is a chance for the Dollar to get some breathing space & recover in the short term. Overall, the trend of the Dollar remains bearish, so what we want to keep an eye on is small pumps (short term recovery) into price zones which will allow us to short the Dollar back down.
I want to see a dip lower towards $96 - $94 before sellers lose bearish momentum. If this move takes place, then we can slowly see buyers step back into the market & start pushing back to the upside. Once price hits our ‘Supply Zone’ of $103 again, it’ll give us a more clear indication of what the Dollar will do next; whether that’s a longer term uptrend or a continuation to the downside.
WHAT IS THE EXPECTED RETURN and DURATION of this GOLD Bull Run?Well, when measured against the DXY index, a clear trend becomes apparent.
A Golden Bull typically lasts about 40 quarters, which is essentially 1 decade (give or take a quarter).
Similar to #Bitcoin and its cyclical bull markets within a larger secular bull, the returns tend to decrease over time.
However, it seems that a triple-digit Gold price relative to the DXY is on the horizon at the very least.
What would that look like if the DXY were to hit a new low around 69? This would suggest a Gold price of $6900 at a ratio of 100:1.
A Gold price of $12K with a DXY of 80 only requires a ratio of 150...
Thus, a five-digit Gold price is certainly within the realm of possibility.
I have forecasts that extend as high as $12K.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 27, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair held positive momentum near 1.3735 during Asian trading on Friday.
Concerns over the Fed's future independence continue to undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for the major pair. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that he is considering selecting the next Fed chairman ahead of schedule, which has spurred fresh controversy over U.S. rate cuts. Trump said the list of potential successors to Powell had shrunk to “three or four people”, without naming any finalists.
In addition, weaker-than-expected US gross domestic product (GDP) data also sent the dollar lower. The U.S. economy contracted faster than expected in the first three months of this year, falling 0.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was below the previous estimate and the market consensus of -0.2%.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier this week that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. At its June meeting, the UK central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, although three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3750, SL 1.3690, TP 1.3865
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Critical Moment
With an unprecedented pace of weakness of US Dollar,
DXY Index is now testing a historic weekly support cluster.
If the market breaks it today and closes below that, it will
open a potential for much more depreciation.
Next historic support will be 95.5 and a downtrend will continue.
Today's US fundamentals can be a trigger.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!
Dollar Index Bearish to $96 (UPDATE)I posted this DXY sell thesis yesterday for you all while price was still at $97.70. Since then sellers have taken out the previous Wave 3 low, creating a new daily low today at $96.90📉
We still have more downside yet to come towards our $96.60 target. So, use this 'DXY Sell Thesis' to help you with your trading, so once you can use this as a confluence to buy inverse correlated markets
EURUSD Sell SetupBy: MJTrading:
EUR/USD has rallied into a significant resistance zone, approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge/channel pattern. The price is now hovering around a key confluence zone, where trendline resistance and horizontal supply intersect ( 1.16300 —1.16500 )
There are to possible scenarios:
1) If the price Rejects directly from previous High
🔹 Position 1: Sell Stop @ 1.15915
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.6375
🎯 Take Profit: 1.5454
R/R:1
isk Level: Medium
2) If price tries to reach the boundary of the wedge or make a Fake breakout:
🔹🔹 Position 2: Sell Limit @ 1.16300
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.6930
🎯 Take Profit: 1.5000
R/R:2
Risk Level: Low
📌 This zone offers a high-probability reversal setup
📉 Why it Matters:
Price action shows signs of exhaustion after a parabolic move.
EMA structure is stretched, hinting at a potential pullback.
Lets ZOOM OUT:
Daily Chart:
ZOOM IN:
Stay disciplined, let price come to you, and manage risk.
—
#EURUSD #ForexSetup #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPattern #FXTrading #ShortTrade #MJTrading #BearishReversal #PriceAction #SwingTrade #ForexIdeas #Trendlines #BreakoutOrFakeout #RiskReward
AUD/USD – Rejection at 2025 High?By: MJTrading
📉 AUD/USD – Rejection at 2025 High?
The Aussie is struggling at its 2025 high, printing successive lower highs (LH) and flirting with the 60-period EMA. With momentum leaning bearish, a short opportunity opens up near 0.64878, targeting the 0.64094 support zone. Confirmation from the EMA breakdown and rejection wicks strengthens the setup. Stop-loss above 0.65285 protects against a breakout trap.
Entry: 0.64883
Stop Loss: 0.65285
TP1: 0.64500
TP2: 0.64100
#Hashtags: #AUDUSD #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ReversalSetup #BearishBias #LowerHighs #EMARejection #ShortThePop #PriceAction
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
GBPUSD Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.35900 zone, GBPUSD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.35900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
24th JuneTA: Many confluences for a bearish bias. Only confirmation needed for high probability price action is running (closing below 4H SL) on 1H. We have to exercise some caution, because price is still in the area of the monthly sweep. For a trade PA has to give us optimal behaviour.
News: Powell testifies at 10:00am. This could lead to a very quick move below the swept monthly low.
Have we made a Low for the Week yet on Gold???Im looking for price to sweep Monday's low before deciding what it wants to do. I want to see everything line up inside of the killzone to take advantage. Just have to be patient. We still have a lil time so sitting on my hands until it all looks clear to proceed with the move.
Bottom in for the dollar against the EuroI know many people are calling for the decline of the dollar and to invest in Europe, but the chart shows a different picture.
The chart shows that the dollar has bottomed against the Euro and looks set to make a run at the highs.
I think over the coming months/years, the dollar will go back above par against the Euro and will likely outperform the Euro for the coming years.
The recent decline in the dollar was just to backtest support, and now that we have done that, I think the bottom is in.
Breaking above the trend line should accelerate the bullish move.
New Week! New Opportunities on GOLD! With the recent activity in the middle east expecting prices to continue bullish. I was looking for this move last week but it seems the holiday delayed the process. If we can get a full breakout above the previous daily High level that will be confidence that we are moving bullish for the rest of the week.
Dollar's Decline: Global Economic ShiftsYou're probably wondering why I'm talking about the dollar on the Bitcoin chart. It's because I want you to look a few steps ahead.
That's why this post is for people like that.
1. Global Economic Transformations: Collapse of the Jamaican Monetary System
Insights and Logic:
We are witnessing the end of the Jamaican monetary system, established in 1976 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
The Jamaican system's key feature is free (yet conditionally market-driven) exchange rates and the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.
For decades, the U.S. utilized the dollar's reserve currency status to finance budget and trade deficits without equivalent value returns—a beneficial "global tax."
Facts:
Currently, over 60% of global reserves are denominated in dollars (IMF data), but diversification is accelerating.
The U.S. is facing a "liquidity trap": to sustain markets, the Fed must print money, exacerbating inflation and weakening the dollar's global effectiveness.
Analogy:
Just as Nixon abolished the gold standard in 1971, we are now witnessing the abolition of the dollar's global standard—not abandoning the dollar as a reserve currency, but its monopoly.
2. Political Environment in the U.S.: Trump, Tariffs, and Managed Uncertainty
Insights:
Court decisions against Trump's tariffs are political tools, especially prior to congressional elections.
Democrats aren't just fighting for power—they systematically undermine Trump's economic policies in voters' eyes.
Systematic Explanation:
Virtually any presidential decree in the U.S. can be challenged legally. Lower-court decisions rarely withstand appeals, yet they create temporary buffers allowing policy adjustments.
This enables Trump to recalibrate his trade model systematically without losing face.
Conclusion:
The U.S. operates under "managed uncertainty," where seemingly chaotic political behaviors are structured adaptation mechanisms to global changes.
3. Mass Market and Sixth Technological Paradigm: NBIC as Foundation for Future Growth
Insights:
The future mass market will be built around NBIC technologies:
* Nano—new materials and sensors;
* Bio—biotech, genetic engineering, life extension;
* Info—digital platforms, neural networks, blockchain;
* Cogno—cognitive interfaces, AI, neural interfaces.
Historical Analogy:
Just as cars and mobile phones defined the mass market of the 20th century, longevity treatments, AI services, and neural devices will define the 21st century.
Facts:
Examples of current "false starts": Nvidia, Palantir, OpenAI—stock price volatility relates not to technology failures but premature valuation.
Forecast:
The next 20 years will see growth in new sectors, dominated by those capturing mass consumers, not just investors.
4. Digitalization and Geo-economics: Telegram, AI, and Control
Facts:
Telegram plans to integrate Grok neural network—a signal of the digital merger of communication, payment platforms, and behavioral analytics.
Insight:
Telegram as a future super-app: messaging, finance, AI assistance—all-in-one.
This is a media reset: traditional platforms like Bloomberg and CNBC lose influence to those controlling data flows directly.
Conclusion:
Information landscapes become automated—algorithms, not journalists, manage narratives.
5. **Europe: From "Progress Locomotive" to Stagnation and Subcontracting**
Facts:
Germany has been in recession for three consecutive years. The average age is 46.
Pension burdens and social standards make the economic model (Rhineland capitalism) unsustainable.
Ideological Crisis:
Europe is split into "transhumanist" (West) and "neoconservative" (East) factions.
The neoconservative revolution is gaining ground in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and even eastern Germany.
Conclusion:
Europe is skipping the sixth technological paradigm, becoming a "comfortable but uncompetitive" zone. Europe's "Japanification"—a path without acute crises but also without growth.
6. Future Growth Centers: Asia and the Global South with Risks
Facts and Locations:
Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand—dynamic economies with high ROI and moderate political risks.
Philippines, Taiwan—potential proxy-conflict zones between the U.S. and China.
Logic:
Global capital moves towards higher returns rather than better living standards.
Asia becomes a new economic and geopolitical battleground similar to 20th-century Europe.
7. Role of Cryptocurrencies and USDT, USDC: Transition to Digital Dollar
Facts:
U.S. authorities view cryptocurrencies, especially USDT, as tools to reboot the dollar model.
USDT effectively integrates the dollar into the crypto economy, maintaining Treasury demand and allowing dollar exports outside the U.S.
Insights:
Unlike CBDCs, the U.S. digital dollar (via stablecoins) enables global expansion rather than local control.
The U.S. aims to lead the new monetary evolution—digital dominance instead of fiat.
8. Prospects in Latin America: Argentina, Mexico, and Risks
Argentina Analysis:
President Milei implements neoliberal reforms akin to Ukraine's: reduced state role and deregulation.
Possible outcomes: deindustrialization, increased poverty, export dependency.
Positives:
No war risks, resource-rich (oil, wine, food), good medicine and education standards (legacy).
Mexico:
High growth yet severe crime levels—excellent for business, risky for life.
9. Global Hybrid War Instead of a Third World War
Concept:
Not a "world war" but a global hybrid war: multiple power centers, proxy conflicts, shifting alliances.
Theaters of conflict: Asia (especially the South China Sea), potentially the Middle East and Africa.
Strategic Conclusion:
Avoid proxy countries; prefer "neutral dynamic" regions like Indonesia, Vietnam.
About DXY
I have been talking about the fall of the dollar index for a very long time.
September is coming soon
Best regards EXCAVO
Dow Jones potential down side moveDow Jones is showing some sign of wanting to go short with also the potential dollar strength coming into the markets and the bond yield markets having a bullish trend for the last couple of months. Dow has reach a full fib extension and we could see some form of retracement continuation.