Dollarindex
DXY Index is Ready to Pump by 🌄Morning Candlestick Pattern🌄🏃♂️DXY Index is moving near the 🟢 Support zone($104.27-$103.90) 🟢, and 200_SMA(Daily) and 100_SMA(Daily) , and the lower line of the ascending channel .
💡Also, the Morning Candlestick Pattern is clearly visible.
🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY Index has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) in the support zone .
🔔I expect the DXY Index to rise to at least the Resistance line .
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰.
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Expecting Some Strength In The US DollarBased on the chart, here are the reasons why I would consider buying the dollar index:
Uptrend Resumption: The dollar index has been in a steady uptrend since the beginning of the year, and after a brief correction, it appears to be resuming its upward trend. Buying into this momentum could be a profitable strategy.
Support Held: The index has bounced off a significant support level, indicating that buyers are stepping in to defend this level. This could be a sign of strength and a potential buying opportunity.
Bullish Reversal Pattern: The recent price action resembles a bullish reversal pattern, such as a candlestick rejection, which could be a sign of a trend reversal to the upside.
Fundamentals Align: The dollar is often seen as a safe-haven currency, and with global economic uncertainty on the rise, investors may be seeking refuge in the US dollar, driving its value higher.
Major Level Holds: The index has held above a major psychological level (104), which could be a sign of strength and a potential launching point for a further rally.
These are just some of the reasons why I would consider buying the dollar index. However, it's essential to conduct thorough analysis, consider multiple perspectives, and manage risk before making any trading decisions.
us dollar index due to various uncertainties and market turmoil us economy is facing major challenges, today market is going to spectate 4 major FOMC members speech and market expects major volatility.
with the us dollar fluctuations the market also faces challenges in volatility of usd pairs especially xauusd.
dxy major support and resistance are given in the chart above.
live share and follow us for more market related updates and analysis
DXY ( US DOLLAR Index ) Analysis 19/05/24Scenario 01 : if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates : Probability of this to happend is lower in my opinion but could happend somehow
1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of the dollar strengthens. This is because higher interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar. So, the Dixie would likely see an increase in value.
2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* If interest rates rise, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, would likely see an uptick as well. Again, this is due to increased demand for the dollar from foreign investors seeking higher returns.
Scenario 02 : if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates the same:
1. *Dixie (USD Index):* If interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar's value might stay relatively stable. Without a change in interest rates to attract or deter investment, the Dixie may not experience significant fluctuations.
2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* Similarly, the U.S. Dollar Index could remain steady if interest rates are unchanged. It might experience some minor movements based on other economic factors, but overall, it's likely to maintain its current level.
Scenario 03 : if the Federal Reserve Cut / Lower interest rates: (Probability is High because of the inflation is high and Jerome Mentioned he might Cut rates in the next meeting)
1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Lowering interest rates usually leads to a decrease in the value of the dollar. This is because lower rates make it less attractive for foreign investors to hold onto dollars, as they can find higher returns elsewhere. So, the Dixie might depreciate.
2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* A cut in interest rates could lead to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index as well. Lower rates could weaken the dollar's value relative to other currencies, causing the index to decrease.
In summary, changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have significant impacts on both the Dixie and the U.S. Dollar Index, influencing their values in the foreign exchange market.
DXY is weakening after soft CPI dataHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 105.100 zone, DXY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it approaching the trend at 105.100 support and resistance area.
Fundamentally the recent CPI data was quiet soft and didn't exceed 0.3.
Trade safe, Joe.
The dollar will capitulate and then soar!Updating my TVC:DXY predictions:
1. Everything hinges on carry trade with Japan
2. Japan is raising rates until they resubmit to negative interest rates this summer
3. The USDJPY will plummet until summer, this will cause the dollar to go down which increases inflation in the USA and deflation everywhere else due to the dollar being a reserve currency.
4. I believe the FED will cause inflation to go higher kicking the can down the street
5. After this summer the dollar will explode to over 140+ killing all other currencies as they print to escape deflationary depression.
6. The dollar will finally explode making way for CBDC's
7. Gold, Bitcoin, Rupee will be my final three picks for the end of 2030 for best assets and currencies. Of course you'll want a farm and freeze dried food for the coming collapse.
Will the Dollar continue its Downtrend or change its Direction?The dollar index #DX1! respected its previous downtrend and the News about CPI (Consumer Prices) today helped with this movement to the downside.
Will the Dollar continue its Downtrend or will change its Direction to the Upside?
CPI m/m
Actual: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.4%
Previous: 0.4%
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Actual: -15.6
Forecast: -9.9
Previous: -14.3
"The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies including the yen and the euro, fell to a one-month low at 104.41, but later pared losses to trade 0.25% lower at 104.77".
References:
-https://www.forexfactory.com/index.php
-https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-droops-ahead-crucial-cpi-test-yen-under-pressure-2024-05-15/
Gold analysis for 13/05/24 & 14/05/24According to my analysis and according to what you taught me, Tamas :
Scenario 1 :
If CPI comes negative on Wednesday, it could lead to deflation concerns, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and prevent deflationary pressures. A negative CPI could indicate a decrease in the general price level of goods and services, potentially signaling weak demand or economic contraction
A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar, as lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. This could lead to a depreciation of the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies
Gold prices may rise in response to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, concerns about inflation and currency depreciation amid monetary easing measures could further support gold prices , Gold may Target 2394-2400
Scenario 2:
A positive CPI indicates an increase in the general price level of goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about the purchasing power of the currency and potential future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation
If the PPI also shows an increase on Tuesday, it could reinforce inflationary expectations, indicating rising costs for producers. This might further support the case for potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures
Technical Analysis :
We're currently in Correction Wave , and Expecting Price to Pump for Gold target 2394-2401
Advice : please always use a propre risk management this is my analyse and good luck
Make sure if you like my Analysis to boost up my post and Comment
DXY(Dollar Index):🟢Possible scenarios🟢(Details on caption)Well hello, traders.
Here is my view on the DXY daily chart.
As you can see the price left the buy-side liquidity which formed as an equal high, and then respected to the 50% of bullish FVG which is internal range liquidity. In this condition usually, the price seeks to the external range liquidity.
So the first scenario is bullish and I follow this scenario (High probability scenario)
The second scenario is bearish, if the price respects the bearish order block or mean threshold of this order block we will see the price move down.
All in all, if the bearish order block can not hold the price we will see a bullish week, and if the price respects the bearish order block the weekly candle will be bearish.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️01/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
The Dollar(DXY): Charting the Path to Bullish MomentumGreetings Traders,
I'm observing a sustained bullish institutional order flow in the Dollar, targeting the weekly and monthly buy stops as my buy-side objectives. Currently, we're operating within discount prices, having rebalanced the daily discount Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tapped into the mitigation block, a zone of institutional support. Additionally, price has respected the rejection block and provided a market structure shift, signaling a potential continuation to the upside.
Watch the DXY & GBPUSD Weekly Outlook Video:
Feel free to leave any questions you may have.
Best Regards,
The_Architect
DOLLAR INDEX DXY Bearish Side Heist PlanHola Ola Hello Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Bearish side of DXY market. kindly please follow the plan i have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry, Our target is Green Zone it is High risk Dangerous area Consolidation will happen Bull Trend will continue to go Upside.. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
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Will the Dollar continue his Downtrend? #DXYThis morning we're seeing the Dollar going down due to the Unemployment Claims news.
Will the Dollar continue his Downtrend?
Levels taken from Forex Factory:
Unemployment Claims
Actual: 231K
Forecast: 212K
Previous: 209K
References:
www.forexfactory.com
www.reuters.com
Shorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker DollarShorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker Dollar, But Beware the Dragons
The DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies. With rising global tensions and a potential shift in global power dynamics, the question lingers: is it time to short the DXY, betting on a weakening dollar? Let's explore the arguments for and against this strategy.
The Case for Shorting DXY: A Multi-Pronged Approach
• America's Shrinking Lead: The US, while still a dominant economic force, faces challenges. Its manufacturing base has shrunk, its national debt is ballooning, and infrastructure crumbles. These factors could erode confidence in the dollar's long-term stability.
• The Rise of the Rest: China's economic power is undeniable. The yuan's internationalization efforts are gaining traction, potentially chipping away at the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Other economies like the Eurozone are also maturing, offering alternatives.
• A Concerted Effort: Imagine a scenario where the US's major allies, concerned about American dominance, decide to weaken the dollar. This could involve measures like central banks diversifying reserves away from the US or pegging their currencies to a basket that excludes the dollar. While a hypothetical scenario, it can't be entirely dismissed.
China: The Dragon in the Room
China's displeasure with a weakening dollar is a significant risk factor. A weaker dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive, hindering their economic growth. China holds a significant amount of US Treasuries, and a devalued dollar would erode the value of those holdings. This could lead to China dumping US Treasuries, further weakening the dollar in a vicious cycle.
Beyond China: Other Considerations
• US Response: The US Federal Reserve has tools at its disposal to counter a weakening dollar. Raising interest rates, for instance, could entice investors back to the dollar for higher yields.
• Global Instability: A devalued dollar could create global economic turmoil as countries scramble to adjust exchange rates and inflation spikes. This could be particularly damaging for developing economies.
• Unpredictable Markets: Shorting any asset is inherently risky, and the currency market is especially volatile. Unforeseen events can drastically alter currency valuations.
So, Should You Short DXY?
The decision to short DXY depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Here's a breakdown:
• For Aggressive Investors: If you believe in a long-term decline of the US dollar and have a high tolerance for risk, shorting DXY could be a potential strategy. However, careful risk management is crucial.
• For Cautious Investors: The potential consequences of a weakening dollar, particularly China's reaction, are significant. It might be wiser to stick with less volatile investments or consider options strategies that limit your downside risk.
Alternative Strategies
Instead of shorting DXY directly, consider these alternatives:
• Invest in a Diversified Currency Basket: Spread your risk by investing in a basket of major currencies, potentially benefiting from a weakening dollar while mitigating some of the risk.
• Look to Emerging Markets: If you believe in the rise of other economic powers, consider investing in their currencies or stocks poised to benefit from a weaker dollar.
The Final Bite
The future of the US dollar is uncertain. A combination of factors could lead to its decline. However, the potential consequences, particularly China's response, are significant risks to consider. Carefully weigh the arguments before taking a short position on DXY. Remember, diversification and a measured approach are key in navigating the ever-fluctuating currency markets.
DXY H4 - Long signal DXY H4
Dollar is moving as expected, bouncing from that 105 price we were marking up and focussing on from last week. Following all the economic data points, support held out and corrected perfectly.
We have since approaching 105.600 price, a key area of S/R. This also ties in with GBPUSD support price. An area where we may see a bit of a correction (as annotated) before seeing the next bullish leg upside.
US dollar Index Analyse for long termBearish Scenario:
Increased Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of the conflict leads to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sparking concerns about regional stability and security.
Risk Aversion: Investors flee from riskier assets, including the U.S. dollar, as uncertainty rises. Instead, they seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold, driving up gold prices.
Dollar Weakens: The U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies due to risk aversion and concerns about the potential economic impact of the conflict on global markets. This weakens the Dollar Index.
Bullish Scenario:
Resolution of Conflict: Diplomatic efforts or a ceasefire agreement lead to a resolution of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, easing geopolitical tensions in the region.
Market Confidence: Investor confidence improves as the risk of broader regional instability diminishes. This encourages investors to move away from safe-haven assets like gold and back into riskier assets, including the U.S. dollar.
Dollar Strengthens: The U.S. dollar strengthens against other currencies as investors return to dollar-denominated assets, leading to an increase in the Dollar Index.
These scenarios highlight how the resolution or escalation of the conflict can influence investor sentiment, market dynamics, and the direction of both the U.S. dollar and gold prices.
DXY mini wave upward(5/7/2024)After the NFP and unemployment data, The DXY TVC:DXY faced a big correction.
In this week, we believe this week is going to be calm because USD has no game-changing data.
there is a possibility that the DXY is going to make some retracements in an upward direction.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
DXY H8 - Long SignalWe are into some typical trading volume after the bank holiday period. 105 support seems to be holding nicely for the moment, more volume to flow in as we see in NA morning and US stock market open.
Really hoping to see the dollar gain from here and therefore looking for *USD shorts and USD* longs.