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DXY

Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
DXY Printing a Bullish Triangle??The DXY on the 1 Hr Chart is forming a potential continuation pattern, the Bullish Triangle! Currently Price is testing the 99.6 - 99.8 Resistance Area and battling with the 200 EMA and 34 EMA Band. The reaction to this conjunction could be pivotal in who overcomes: Buyers or Sellers. Now during the formation of the potential pattern, Price on the RSI has stayed relatively Above the 50 mark being Bullish Territory suggesting Buyers could win the Bull-Bear battle. Until Price breaks either the Resistance Area or the Rising Support, we will not have a definitive direction in which USD will strengthen or weaken. *Wait For The Break* -If Price breaks the Resistance Area, USD will strength possibly heading to the 100.8 - 101 Area -If Price breaks the Rising Support, USD will weaken possibly heading to the 98.5 - 98.3 Area Fundamentally, it is said China and USA are possibly getting closer to potentially ending the Reciprocal Tariff War going on with both sides willing to negotiate. With the USA being the #1 Consumer of Goods globally, other economies can not afford us to not buy their things so I continue to see the Tariff War more as a Strong-Arm for the USA to be able to negotiate better terms! USD News: JOLTS - Tuesday, Apr. 29th GDP - Wednesday, Apr. 30th Unemployment Claims / ISM Manu. PMI - Thursday, May 1st Non-Farm Employment Change / Avg Hourly Earnings / Unemployment Rate - Friday, May 2nd For all things Currency, Keep it Current, With Novi_Fibonacci
TVC:DXYLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
3
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EURUSD has pulled back after reaching the top of the ascending channel and encountering a resistance zone. We expect the correction to continue at least toward the identified support level. After completing the correction, a new bullish wave is expected to begin, potentially pushing the price toward higher levels. Will EURUSD resume its uptrend after the pullback? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
7
DXY BREAKOUT IN PLAY — Smart Money is Moving!After a clean falling wedge formation, DXY is showing early signs of bullish momentum. Price action respects the trendline support + bullish orderblock (green zone) beautifully! Next targets: 101.000 — 103.000 zone. Watch for pullback entries before continuation. This is textbook falling wedge breakout behavior — stay sharp! Levels Marked: Support: 99.00 zone Target Zones: 101.000 & 103.000 Breaker structure: Confirmed bullish Save this setup & be prepared!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Greenfireforex
Forex Grid Trading Overview: Practical Guide for 2025Forex Grid Trading Strategy: Detailed Overview & Low-Risk EUR/USD Application 1️⃣ What Is Grid Trading? A grid trading strategy places a series of **buy** and **sell** orders at fixed intervals (“grid levels”) above and below a base price, without forecasting market direction. As price oscillates, it triggers orders across the grid, locking in small profits on each swing. - **No Directional Bias** – Profits on both up- and down-moves - **Automated Entry/Exit** – Ideal for Expert Advisors (EAs) on MT4/MT5 - **Scalable** – Grid size and lot sizing can be tailored to account size and volatility 2️⃣ How It Works – Core Components 1. **Grid Levels** - Define a **base price** (e.g. current EUR/USD mid) - Set **intervals** (e.g. every 20 pips) above/below the base 2. **Orders** - **Buy Limit** orders at 20, 40, 60 pips below base - **Sell Limit** orders at 20, 40, 60 pips above base 3. **Take Profit (TP) for Each Order** - TP typically equals the grid interval (e.g. 20 pips) so each triggered order nets a small profit - No hard Stop Loss per order—risk is managed via overall exposure 4. **Cumulative P&L** - Winning trades roll profits into the floating drawdown of unfilled orders - As price oscillates, the grid “locks in” incremental gains 3️⃣ Pros & Cons | Pros | Cons | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | ✅ Profits in ranging markets | ❌ Can incur large drawdowns in strong trends | | ✅ Automated, systematic execution | ❌ Requires significant margin for multiple open trades | | ✅ Scalable to any time-frame | ❌ Floating negative exposure if grid one-sided | --- ✅Low-Risk Best Practices 1. **Grid Spacing & Width** - Wider grid intervals (e.g. 30–50 pips) reduce order density and margin use - Use **ATR** (Average True Range) to adapt spacing to EUR/USD volatility 2. **Lot Sizing & Equity Risk** - Risk ≤ 1–2% equity per full grid cycle - Use **fixed fractional** sizing: each order size = (Equity × 1%) / (max number of open grid orders) 3. **Drawdown Control** - **Maximum Open Orders** cap (e.g. 5 orders per side) - **Equity Stop-Out**: if floating drawdown exceeds e.g. 10% of equity, close all orders 4. **Trend Filters** - Use a **200-period SMA** or **ADX** filter: only enable sell grid if price < SMA (downtrend) or ADX < 25 (low momentum) - Disables grid in strong one-way trends 5. **Grid Shifting / Re-Base** - After a net grid profit, **shift** the base price to current mid to reset exposure - Prevents runaway open trades far from current price 5️⃣ Step-by-Step: Applying to EUR/USD 1. **Choose Time-Frame** - **H4 or H1** recommended: balances signal frequency and margin needs 2. **Define Grid Parameters** - **Base Price:** current EUR/USD mid (e.g. 1.0980) - **Interval:** 30 pips (≈ recent ATR on H4) - **Levels:** 3 buys at 1.0950 / 1.0920 / 1.0890; 3 sells at 1.1010 / 1.1040 / 1.1070 3. **Set Order Size** - Account equity $10 000, risk 1% = $100 per full grid - Max open orders 6 → each order $100/6 ≈ $16.7 → ≈ 0.02 lots 4. **Configure TP & No SL** - Each order TP = 30 pips (equals interval) - No per-order SL; overall drawdown managed by equity stop 5. **Implement Filters** - Only open **sell** grid if H4 close < 200-SMA; only open **buy** grid if H4 close > 200-SMA - Pause grid if ADX > 30 (strong trend) or market events (e.g. NFP, ECB rate decision) 6. **Deploy & Monitor** - Run on MT4 with an EA or semi-automated Expert Advisor - Monitor margin usage; adjust grid or disable before major news 6️⃣ Example P&L Mechanics | Trigger Price | Order Type | Entry | TP Target | Profit (pips) | |---------------|------------|---------|-----------|---------------| | 1.0950 | Buy Limit | 1.0950 | 1.0980 | 30 | | 1.0980 | Sell Limit | 1.0980 | 1.1010 | 30 | - If price moves down to 1.0950: buy executes, TP at 1.0980 nets +30 pips - If price then climbs above base, sells trigger at 1.1010 nets +30 pips 2️⃣ Introducing Progressive & Regressive Scaling 🔼 2.1 Progressive Scaling “Let winners run”—increase exposure after success Concept: After each profitable grid cycle, step up your lot size by a fixed increment. Why: Capitalizes on momentum and winning streaks. How to apply: Base Lot: 0.02 lots per order (1% equity risk). After grid closes net-positive, next cycle = 0.03 lots. Continue stepping up (0.04, 0.05 …) until a drawdown or equity-stop is hit. Reset back to base lot after a losing cycle or whenever floating drawdown > 5%. Caps & Safeguards: Max Lot Cap: Never exceed 0.10 lots (or 2% equity risk). Equity Stop: If floating drawdown > 10%, close cycle & reset. 🔽 2.2 Regressive Scaling “Protect the downside”—reduce exposure after losses Concept: After a losing grid cycle, step down your lot size to conserve capital. Why: Limits damage during rough periods and preserves margin. How to apply: Base Lot: 0.02 lots per order. If grid hits equity-stop or nets negative, next cycle = 0.015 lots. Continue stepping down (0.01, 0.005) until you record a net-positive cycle. Reset to base lot after recovery (e.g. two consecutive winning cycles). Thresholds: Don’t drop below 0.005 lots (to avoid over-shrinking). After two winning cycles at reduced lot, return to base. ✅ Bottom Line Forex grid trading on EUR/USD can generate steady gains in choppy markets—but demands **strict risk controls** (grid spacing, lot sizing, drawdown limits) and **trend filters** to avoid large losses in trending conditions. When properly applied, a low-risk grid on EUR/USD offers a robust, mostly hands-off strategy for capturing repetitive market swings. 4️⃣ Key Takeaways Progressive Scaling lifts lot sizes on winning streaks, amplifying gains—but must be capped and reset on losses. Regressive Scaling shrinks exposure after drawdowns, preserving capital until the strategy recovers. Combine both with your grid’s risk parameters, trend filter, and a solid equity-stop to maintain a balanced, low-risk EUR/USD grid. By layering scaling rules atop your grid, you adapt dynamically to market performance—maximizing winners and protecting against prolonged losing runs. Good luck! 🚀
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
39
GBPUSD - Big Move Setting Up - Elliott Wave AnalysisGBPUSD is currently unfolding a 5-wave impulsive move according to Elliott Wave Theory. At the moment, we are in Wave 4, which typically corrects against the larger trend. Key Points: Wave 2 was a simple correction, so based on alternation, Wave 4 is expected to be more complex (likely an ABC structure). Wave 4 often retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — in this case, aligning perfectly with a long-term ascending trendline, providing additional confluence for a potential buy zone. Trade Plan: - Monitor the ABC correction for completion near the 38.2% retracement. - Look for bullish confirmation (trendline break, bullish structure shifts, BOS, etc.). - Entries will be considered after clear signs of bullish pressure. - Stoploss: Below the lows formed during the Wave 4 correction. Targets: First Target: 1.3400 (450 pips) Second Target: 1.3750 (800 pips) Summary: Patience is key during the Wave 4 correction. Once the setup confirms, this could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity within the overall bullish impulsive structure. See our past GBPUSD setups below: Swing 1: Swing 2: Swing 3:
by WicktatorFX
DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. ✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. ✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅ Break an d close below July 2023 key 100.00 levels. ✅ Foresee a pull back to, weekly imbalance, daily order block, daily 50ema, weekly order block and or weekly 50 ema. ✅ Awaiting to identify a significant break of structure bullish to use the DXY as confluence for our trading week 18 of Q2 toward key points of interest mentioned above. ✅ Forecasting continued bearish pressure long term. ✅Initially bullish outlook however upon price turn around. DXY to break 100.000 level again. 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. Pairs to look out for - EURUSD USDCHF USDJPY USDCAD GBPUSD 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
TVC:DXY
by JCFRGNT
2
Interpretation of 4.25 Gold Short-term Operation IdeasFrom the technical analysis of the hourly market, yesterday's low was at $3,306, and the rebound just now showed an obvious stop signal at this position. Based on this, the current short-term suppression level can refer to $3,315, and the higher level is $3,328. For short-term investors, you can consider waiting for the gold price to rebound to around $3,315 to arrange short orders and continue to be bearish on the gold price. The first thing to pay attention to below is the support of the low point just touched at $3,287. If this support level is lost, the next key support level will be $3,260, the first low point on the previous downward journey. If $3,260 is also effectively broken, the short-selling force will be further released, and the gold price may face a larger decline.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
2
USD Index: A Possible Reversal in Sight?Since early February, right after Trump’s inauguration, the USD Index (DXY) has been under pressure, falling sharply by over 10%. However, after hitting the 98.00 level, things seem to have stabilized. We're seeing the early signs of a relief rally. 🔍 Technical Perspective: - This week’s candlestick pattern suggests a bullish reversal. - The dip on Wednesday was quickly bought, showing buyer interest. - A minor correction occurred yesterday, but dips are being well supported. - Currently, the DXY trades around 99.60, just under the psychological level of 100. 🎯 Outlook: As long as 98 remains intact, the bias shifts towards a potential rebound. First target: 102 – a logical resistance zone and prior support. This is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, but the price action is shifting. The key now is how the market reacts around the 100 level. A break above could trigger further bullish momentum.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
DXY Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 15m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 99.109. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 99.404 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
ALERT: EUR Broke Out of Long-term Downtrend Vs Currency Basket This is the aggregate EUR index against several currencies called EXY (like DXY) Large downtrend from 2008 was breached this quarter to the upside. The first trigger of trend weakness occurred in the summer of 2017 when EUR index crossed over mid-line and for the rest of time the price has remained there. In 2021, the price has shown a false break to the upside but failed to progress further. That top is the nearest target for the price at 123, which will book +9% profit. The next barrier is located at the top of 2014 of 140 with +24% gain.
TVC:EXYLong
by aibek
XAUUSD - Will Gold Reverse?!Gold is trading between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 15-minute timeframe and is on its uptrend line. A continued bullish move towards the supply zone will provide us with the next opportunity to sell it with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a range of $10-$15. Gold prices dropped by 4% on Wednesday, just a day after reaching an all-time high. The decline followed remarks by President Trump that helped ease Wall Street’s concerns about the ongoing trade war with China and tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Throughout this year, gold has seen a substantial rise due to investor fears over the economic consequences of tariffs. Additionally, the metal has benefited from capital fleeing U.S. assets amid political uncertainty under the Trump administration. On Tuesday, Trump reassured markets by stating that he had no intention of removing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and expressed his expectation that tariffs on Chinese goods would soon be lowered. Trump’s statements supporting Federal Reserve independence and hinting at easing trade tensions with China reignited risk appetite in financial markets, causing gold prices to tumble on Wednesday.Just a day earlier, prices had hit a record high above $3,500, as investors speculated that Trump might attempt to remove Powell. Trump had previously criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates and for warning that tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices. Gold’s price surge this year has been especially notable following Trump’s decision to halt the implementation of sweeping new tariffs initially announced in early April. Gold, as a safe-haven asset not tied to any single national economy—unlike traditional alternatives such as the U.S. dollar or Treasuries, which are subject to U.S. government influence—has become increasingly attractive to investors wary of Trump’s policy decisions. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that continued tariff escalation in 2025 could push global public debt to 95.1% of GDP—an increase of 2.8 percentage points from previous forecasts. According to the IMF’s latest “Fiscal Monitor” report, if revenues and output fall significantly below expectations due to tariff-induced pressures, global debt could surpass 117% of GDP by 2027. Investment bank JPMorgan has projected that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. This forecast is based on expectations of an economic recession, a prolonged trade war, and sustained demand from central banks. However, JPMorgan also cautioned that a sudden drop in central bank demand could threaten this bullish trend. The IMF’s report further estimates that global public debt will climb to 99.6% of GDP by 2030, exceeding even the pandemic-era peak. The IMF has forecasted global economic growth at around 2.8% for 2025. In this scenario, the U.S. budget deficit is projected to decrease from 7.3% of GDP in 2024 to 6.5% in 2025, and further down to 5.5% in 2026, largely due to increased tariff revenues and continued economic expansion. These IMF projections for the U.S. deficit are based on policies announced up until April 2, 2025, and assume that the individual tax cuts enacted in 2017 will expire at the end of this year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Will the dollar go up?!The GBPUSD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. If the pair corrects down towards the demand zone, it can be bought in the direction of its rise. According to the latest Reuters survey of economists, U.S.-imposed trade tariffs have had a significant negative impact on the business environment in the United Kingdom. The assessment suggests that global trade tensions, combined with America’s protectionist policies, have undermined the confidence of British companies and investors in the country’s economic outlook. Market pricing reflects expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 0.84% over the course of this year. The survey indicates that the UK’s GDP growth for 2025 is expected to average 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1%. Growth for 2026 is now projected at 1.2%, also lower than the 1.4% forecast made in March. In terms of monetary policy, there is a strong consensus among economists that the Bank of England is on a gradual path toward easing interest rates. Projections suggest that the base rate will decline by 25 basis points each quarter throughout 2025, reaching 3.75% by year-end. Notably, all 67 economists participating in the poll expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 basis points at its May 8 meeting, bringing the rate down to 4.25%. Meanwhile, the U.S.Federal Reserve, in its latest Beige Book release, reported that economic activity across the country has shown “little change.” The report detailed that only five districts experienced “modest growth,” three noted activity was “about flat,” and four reported “slight to moderate declines.” The Fed stated, “The outlook in several districts deteriorated notably due to heightened economic uncertainty, particularly stemming from tariffs.” On employment, most districts experienced “little to slight” increases. One district noted a “modest increase,” four reported “slight gains,” another four observed no change, and three recorded “slight declines” in employment levels. At the same time, prices continued to rise across the country. Six districts described price growth as “modest,” while the other six reported it as “moderate.” The Fed explained that most districts expected input costs to rise further due to tariffs. UBS has issued a warning that Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts may erode confidence in the Federal Reserve’s independence and fuel greater uncertainty in financial markets. UBS analysts believe that reduced investment and consumption in the U.S. economy are primarily driven by increased economic uncertainty, rather than restrictive monetary policy. They emphasize that markets are highly sensitive to any perceived threats against the Fed’s autonomy, and in the current climate, it is this economic volatility—more than interest rate levels—that is harming the economy.
Long
by Ali_PSND
US500 - Will the stock market go up?!The index is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for the next Nasdaq buying positions with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. The channel breakdown and the index entering the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. The chief economist at Citigroup has stated that the imposition of tariffs in the United States constitutes a stagflationary shock to the economy. According to his estimates, there is a 40% to 45% chance of a recession. It is expected that GDP will increase in the second quarter, as consumers rush to make purchases ahead of the new tariffs. However, the most significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth is projected to unfold in the second half of the year. You may have noticed that recent economic statistics are no longer moving markets. The reason is simple: markets are forward-looking and trade on expectations rather than past data. Economic figures reflect what has already occurred, while market pricing focuses on what lies ahead. At this stage, current data has yet to fully reflect the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Even if weaker numbers emerge, markets may have already priced in the potential resolution of the trade war and an eventual recovery. Experienced traders understand that today’s developments are already factored into prices. What matters now is the outlook for the coming months—the real driver of market direction. Ryan Petersen of Flexport noted yesterday that, three weeks after the U.S.imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, bookings for ocean freight containers have dropped more than 60% industry-wide. He explained that the U.S. imports around $600 billion worth of goods annually from China, with those items valued at approximately $2 trillion at the retail level. He stated that the first ships carrying goods fully subject to the new tariffs arrived on Monday, and shipping volumes are expected to decline in the coming weeks. However, due to high inventory levels, the impact on the retail sector may be delayed. Petersen also expressed concern that a potential rollback of tariffs could introduce a new set of challenges. With ships currently being repositioned globally, a sudden wave of new orders could disrupt logistics networks—especially if markets perceive the suspension of tariffs as only temporary. In my view, no one really knows how this situation will evolve, as a large portion of imports consists of intermediate goods and components used in final products. My guess is that this could lead to a surge in transshipment and even smuggling, though it could just as easily echo the unexpected consequences seen during the COVID era. We are truly venturing into uncharted territory. Petersen concludes: “This is a strange era for global logistics, as we must simultaneously prepare for the unimaginable—like full U.S. self-sufficiency—while also planning for a return to something closer to normal trade relations.”
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
GOLD Goes "Buy The Dip", Following 200-hour SMA Major SupportGold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever. Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term. The main 1-hour Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow. -- Best #GODL wishes, 💖 Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PandorraResearch