Skeptic | DXY Crash Alert: Epic Bearish Triggers Unleashed!heyy, traders, what’s good? It’s Skeptic ! 😎 Let’s dive into a full-on breakdown of DXY—the Dollar Index is making waves, and I’m hyped to unpack it. The 98.801 level looks busted with a pullback in play, and I’m expecting more action. Stick with me to the end as we rip through Daily and 4-Hour timeframes to catch the vibe and nail those triggers! 🚖
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
So, US inflation data came in softer than expected recently, but DXY still dumped. You might be like, “Wait, shouldn’t lower inflation juice up the dollar?” Nah, here’s the deal: markets move on expectations, not just news. When something grows in the markets, it’s ‘cause traders are betting it’ll keep growing—and vice versa. For DXY, traders are sniffing out a US economic slowdown and expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, which could spark higher inflation later. That’s the double-whammy driving DXY’s drop, despite the tame inflation numbers. This is the biggest secret in markets—nobody talks about it, but it’s what I learned in econ class and see every day: markets run on expectations. 📚
Major Trend: Per Dow Theory, we’re in a bearish trend as long as we’re below 98.801 .
Game Plan: While under this level, hunt longs on USD pairs like EUR/USD. If we break above 98.801, chill and let the market reform before jumping in.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Triggers
Now, let’s get to the 4-hour chart for the real action—our long and short triggers:
Short Trigger: A break below support at 98.017 could keep the bearish vibe rolling. RSI hitting oversold would be a dope confirmation. 😤
Long Trigger: Since the major trend is bearish, longs are against the flow, so keep risk tight and take profits quick. The trigger is a break above 98.801, but the main long trigger is smashing through 99.244. So, 99.244 is your go-to for longs. 💪
Pro Tip: Shorts align with the trend, so they’re safer, but longs need extra caution—small positions, tight stops, and don’t get greedy!
Final Vibe Check
That’s the DXY lowdown, fam! Markets are tricky, but if you stick to reasoning over hype, you’ll stay ahead. No FOMO, no hype, just reason —that’s how we roll at Skeptic Lab. Wanna dive deeper into risk management or another pair? Let me know! 🙌
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis got you pumped, smash that boost—it means a ton! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for vibing with me—keep trading sharp! ✌️
DXY
GBP/USD - H1-Triangle Breakout (17.06.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3485
2nd Support – 1.3444
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GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,622 (UPDATE)Gold is currently going through a strong 'accumulation' phase for buyers, hence why we're seeing these choppy price actions, trying to liquidate buyers. It won't surprise me if we see dips lower, but overall we remain bullish as long as Gold is ABOVE THE WAVE 2 LOW. Breaking below this low, will invalidate bullish structure.
Wave 2 Invalidation Level - $3,245❌
DXY: US dollar To Drop Further Around 95?The US dollar has been steadily declining since the new president was elected in the USA. This decline has been accompanied by the ongoing trade wars. Numerous economic indicators have supported this trend, and we anticipate further depreciation in the coming days or weeks. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own analysis and gain a comprehensive understanding of the market.
We wish you the best of success in trading. Good luck and trade safely.
Like and comment for more, and as always, happy trading!
Team Setupsfx_
$DXY Dollar stays weak but is it bottommed?Have not many ANY trades based on the US Dollar. Have not been convinced in either way, yet.
TVC:DXY has been weaker lately but not by much. Well, at least compared to its previous low.
However, LONGER TERM we see it's biz as usual.
It is currently fairly oversold on the weekly chart & could be primed to change direction.
USDJPYHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDJPY?
On the USD/JPY chart, price is currently moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern and is approaching the upper trendline and a key resistance zone.
We expect that upon testing this resistance level, price will likely fail to break above it and enter a bearish phase, potentially falling at least to the specified support level.
For higher-confidence sell entries, it’s recommended to wait for a confirmed downside break of the lower trendline of the triangle, which would validate a bearish continuation.
Will this resistance hold and trigger a drop, or will bulls take control? Share your thoughts below! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Gold XAUUSD Move 16 June 2025Market Structure:
The market isin a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows until a recent break of the ascending trendline, signaling a short-term structural weakness.
Current price is in a retracement phase, heading towards previous demand zones.
🔹 Zone 1 (3408–3414):
Confluence of:
Broken trendline retest (former support).
Minor order block / demand zone.
Overlapping price reaction area.
Risk: This zone may act as a liquidity inducement before price sweeps deeper into Zone 2.
Entry trigger: Bullish engulfing or LTF market structure shift on 1m/5m.
🔹 Zone 2 (3380–3384):
Stronger demand zone:
Aligned with previous accumulation base.
Larger imbalance (FVG-type area) and bullish impulsive origin.
More convincing for high-RR entries.
Higher probability: If Zone 1 fails or only wicks price, Zone 2 may provide the main entry opportunity.
Entry trigger: Shift in LTF structure with volume spike or breaker flip.
✅ Trade Signal Suggestions
🟦 Setup 1: Buy from Zone 1
Entry: 3410 (upon bullish confirmation)
SL: 3400 (below structure low)
TP: 3434 (prior high)
RR: ~2.4R
Note: Only take if price forms bullish structure (MSS or BOS) on lower timeframe.
🟦 Setup 2: Buy from Zone 2
Entry: 3380/3384 (upon confirmation)
SL: 3372 (below demand zone)
TP: 3411 or 3434 (scalp to intraday swing)
RR: ~1:3 or better
Note: Wait for clean rejection or reversal candle from this zone.
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk 0.5–1% per trade.
Use entry confirmation such as:
Bullish engulfing
Fair value gap reaction
Break of internal structure
Tariff uncertainty keeps weighing on the dollar.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly amid signs of potential negotiations, prompting markets to shift their focus back to the upcoming FOMC and tariffs. Following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, President Trump stated that a trade deal with Canada could be reached within weeks, and also confirmed that a trade agreement with the UK has been signed.
Meanwhile, markets are almost certain that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC, with the probability priced at 99.8%. Wells Fargo expects the inflation outlook to rise due to the delayed impact of higher tariffs, projecting that the year-end median federal funds rate will climb by 25bps to 4.125%.
DXY is consolidating within the 97.50–98.50 range, remaining below both EMAs, which suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may retreat to 97.50. Conversely, if DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.50 and the descending trendline, the index could gain upward momentum toward 99.00.
Bullish bounce?USD Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.81
1st Support: 97.19
1st Resistance: 98.69
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZDUSD → Correction and liquidity capture ahead of growthFX:NZDUSD , following a sharp decline during the Pacific-Asian session, is testing the support of the upward trend and the liquidity zone...
The dollar is correcting amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is a temporary move, and the market may return to its main trend. The currency pair is forming a false breakdown of support
Against the backdrop of an uptrend and a weak dollar, the currency pair is testing support at 0.6000. The reaction is weak at the moment, but there is a chance for growth if the price consolidates above 0.6020. I do not rule out a retest of the liquidity zone at 0.5989 before growth
Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5989
Resistance levels: 0.6068
The inability to continue falling and the formation of a local reversal structure relative to 0.6000 (price consolidation above 0.6020) may support the market. I do not rule out that the market may decline to the liquidity zone of 0.5989 before rising.
Best regards, R. Linda!
$DXY weakness and EM markets: $NIFTY more upside? The recent weakness in TVC:DXY is well documented. We have analyzed it here in detail in our blogs. This weakness is giving wings to all kinds of risk assets including Ems. One of our favorite EM in this space has been India and NSE:NIFTY index for quiet some time. It is the only EM which is close to beating S&P 500 over the last 5-year period. We have been recently bullish at NSE:NIFTY and published new targets on June 6. Please check the post in the link here.
NSE:NIFTY : New highs incoming; 27500 can be cycle highs for NSE:NIFTY by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView
The road to the medium-term target of 27500 on NSE:NIFTY has to do with the weakness of $DXY. As we see, lower lows and lower highs in the Dollar index TVC:DXY provides the required boost to risky assets like Stocks, Crypto and EMs. Even if we have some recent choppiness in the market the upward momentum will continue. By the end of July, we might see TVC:DXY at 96 up 2.5% and NSE:NIFTY @ 26000 up 5%.
Verdict : Pair Trade : Short TVC:DXY to 96 and Long NSE:NIFTY to 26000.
XAUUSD - Is the gold bullish trend over?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the four-hour timeframe, above the EMA200 and EMA50. We should wait for consolidation or not above the drawn trend line to determine the future path of gold, which can be entered after its failure in the formed line, and on the other hand, if gold corrects towards the demand zone, it can be purchased in the short term with appropriate risk-reward.
Over the past week, the gold market moved within a narrow, calm range and showed little reaction to encouraging inflation data—until geopolitical developments once again shifted the landscape. Heightened tensions in the Middle East brought safe-haven demand back to the forefront of traders’ minds.
Following initial reports of regional unrest, gold quickly climbed from $3,324 to a weekly high of $3,377. Although the price saw a brief correction down to around $3,345, it resumed its upward momentum and opened Thursday’s trading session just one dollar below the symbolic $3,400 mark.
Rich Checkan, President and CEO of Asset Strategies International, commented on these recent geopolitical developments, stating: “The market’s direction is clear: it’s upward. With tensions rising following Israel’s attack on Iran, there’s no doubt gold will continue its climb next week.”
Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com, also pointed to rising risks both domestically and globally: “Gold is on an upward path. Domestic unrest in the U.S., escalating conflict in the Middle East, broad selling of the U.S. dollar by other countries, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady—all support gold’s rise.”
Meanwhile, Daniel Pavilonis, senior broker at RJO Futures, analyzed the simultaneous reactions of gold and oil amid the recent Middle East tensions, looking for clues on their future direction. He explained: “Oil’s behavior can serve as an indicator for gold, as both are seen as inflation hedges and are sensitive to bond yields.”
Surprised that gold hasn’t yet reclaimed its April highs, Pavilonis emphasized: “If tensions escalate further, we could see additional gains. But if Iran moves toward negotiations or a truce, gold could remain elevated but range-bound, similar to the past two months. Breaking previous highs would require a stronger catalyst and a more significant worsening of the crisis.” He noted that while geopolitical tensions are currently the primary driver of gold’s strength, such rallies are typically short-lived.
Pavilonis added: “We saw a similar pattern last April—gold and oil spiked sharply but quickly corrected. Back then, trade war concerns with China persisted, inflation rates had fallen noticeably, and the initial supportive factors for gold gradually faded. Now, once again, a fresh geopolitical shock has emerged that may temporarily drive gold higher.”
After a week where market attention focused mainly on U.S. inflation data, investors’ focus in the coming days will shift to central bank policy decisions and potential signals regarding the future path of interest rates.
The trading week begins Monday with the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an early view of industrial activity in New York. That same day, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision, potentially setting a new tone for Asian markets and the yen’s value.
On Tuesday, U.S. May retail sales data will be published—a key indicator of consumer strength. Signs of weakness could bolster market expectations for a rate cut.
Wednesday will be the pivotal day, as the Federal Reserve reveals its rate decision. While markets have fully priced in a pause in tightening, attention will focus on Jerome Powell’s remarks for any hints of rate cuts in the coming months. Also on Wednesday, May housing starts data and weekly jobless claims will be released.
With U.S. markets closed Thursday for Juneteenth, the spotlight will shift to monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, both of which could impact currency market volatility. The week wraps up Friday with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, a leading gauge closely watched by traders to assess the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. Northeast.
DXY ||| • Sell Completed Below Orange Line📉 Pair: GBP/USD
⏱ Timeframe: 4H
🔶 Orange Line = Major S/R Zone
📌 Confirmed Break + Retest
🎯 Profit Locked | Risk Managed
Strategy: Elliott Wave + Parallel Channel + SMC (Break of Structure)
🔶 Status:
Completed Wave 5 inside falling wedge
Sell executed after orange support break
Anticipating accumulation phase > BOS > bullish reversal
📍Key Zones:
Demand zone near 97.455
Resistance near 98.426
🎯 Next Steps: Looking for bullish structure post BOS + Wave 2 pullback.
🔁 Watch for:
Accumulation near lower trendline
Structure shift > Breakout of wedge
Long confirmations in late July – early August
🟢 Plan the trade, trade the plan.
SHOT ON EUR/USDEUR/USD Has given us a nice double top at a major resistance level.
Since then it has broken the neckline of that double bottom, creating a new low, engineering liquidity, sweeping it and now getting ready to tap into supply before it should fall.
The Dxy is also getting ready to rise from a demand level so this should also aid in pushing EU down.
Looking to catch over 200 pips.
USDCHF → Retesting resistance will lead to a declineFX:USDCHF , having failed to reach its global target after breaking through support, is turning back to retest the zone of interest at 0.8157. A fall in the dollar could trigger a decline in prices...
After breaking through support and falling to 0.8055, a correction is forming towards the zone of interest and liquidity at 0.8157. After reaching the local target, the price may return to the global target (liquidity zone) at 0.8042.
The dollar returned to its downward phase at the opening of the session, to which the forex market reacted accordingly. Most likely, bearish pressure may also affect the USDCHF currency pair, which continues to follow the downward trend.
Resistance levels: 0.8157
Support levels: 0.8055, 0.8042
A retest of resistance amid high volatility could form a false breakout (liquidity capture) before the decline continues within the downtrend.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Could the DXY reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 97.71
1st Support: 94.66
1st Resistance: 101.87
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.