Next week's market trend analysisShort-term technical analysis of gold next week:
After gold was horizontally consolidated below 3400, it had two relatively large retracements. The short-term downward channel, the upper edge of the channel is currently around 3340, which is also the turning point of the short-term long and short cycles that we need to pay attention to later.
Has the current big rhythm entered a weak position?
Daily level analysis: After reaching 3500, gold is still in a trend of high-level consolidation, and there is a periodic switch between long and short positions, and there is no extremely strong or weak rhythm. In this consolidation process, there are two relatively large retracements: the first from 3500 to 3200 space 300 points, the second from 3435 to 3120 space 315 points. In other words, in the current daily level cycle, the maximum decline is around 300 US dollars. Not exceeding this maximum retracement value, to a certain extent, it is still in the rhythm of high-level correction. According to the range of this space retracement, the limit of the daily retracement is around 3150, with an error of about 20 points. However, the daily range is large, so it is too early to talk about this threshold.
At present, the short-term pressure points of 0.618 and the top and bottom structures are all around 3300. Another point for everyone to pay attention to: in the market with a small cycle of negative decline, once there is a sideways trend. Don't take it as support! The price is consolidating horizontally, which only means that the current bulls are weak in pulling back and the change of weakness must be a strong pullback to break through the big negative. Similarly, the slow rise market is the same.
The first support below in the short term is around 3250. The strong support is at the integer level of 3200. Once this position is reached, it will become a repeated test position like 3400.
Dxyshort!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6.27 Gold rebounds and adjusts, don't chase shorts at low levelsGold fell below this week's low of 3295 today. As of now, gold has hit 3285 and is fluctuating. Don't chase the short position and short it when it rebounds. Now you can only wait patiently for the rebound before entering the short position. Be a steady hunter and wait patiently for the appearance of prey!
Gold is now focusing on the short-term suppression of the upper 3301-3306 line, focusing on the suppression of the upper 3314-16 line, and the support below is 3276-80. Short it when it rebounds.
Strategy ideas:
1. Gold rebounds to 3301-3306 line and shorts lightly, rebounds to 3314-16 line to cover short position, stop loss 3324, target 3280-85 line;
6.27 Risk aversion dissipates and gold prices adjust! The range As the Middle East war came to an end, the risk aversion sentiment in the global financial market subsided, the risk aversion funds dissipated, and the three major bullish markets of gold, crude oil, and silver all fell downward; at the same time, the US dollar index broke a new low !
Fundamentals:
1: The Middle East war has been temporarily paused, and both sides have entered the adjustment phase; however, irreconcilable contradictions may become the starting point of the next war at any time; although it has ended for now, we must not slack off. Once the two sides are on the verge of a war again, risk aversion will sweep the world again; this is not impossible;
This Middle East war came suddenly and ended suddenly; it was like a child's play washing the global financial market; therefore, the possibility of a resumption of war cannot be ruled out in the future;
At present, in the overall market:
1: In the short cycle, the gold price fluctuates downward, so in the short term, the short-term decline is seen, and the fluctuation is downward;
2: In terms of trend, the range is temporarily contracted, the BOLL of the daily K is contracted, the speed slows down, and the overall range is back to the range of fluctuations; there is no obvious long and short trend, and it returns to the range of fluctuations;
Today's technical trend chart:
1: In 4 hours, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, which is a main empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily under pressure from the central axis track of the 4-hour BOLL, and the empty trend continues downward, and the form tends to continue to oscillate downward; therefore, it is recommended to choose the high-altitude approach for 4 hours;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator continues to cross downward, which is a empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily a broken Yin and Yang pattern, with no obvious trend; BOLL forms a contraction, the range of 3417-3277, the range is mainly in an oscillating trend, and the strong and weak dividing point is near 3347;
Comprehensive: The daily K is mainly in an oscillating trend, so it is recommended to deal with it according to the oscillating trend, choose to buy low and sell high; the reference pressure position is near 3347, the support position is near 3295 and 3278; the second pressure position is 3390-3400 pressure position; continue to choose the oscillating approach, and play a oscillating treatment of buying low and selling high;
USDCAD - Outlook Short on all IndicatorsUSDCAD - Outlook Short on all Indicators
TVC:DXY
FRED:TREASURY
ECONOMICS:USGD
US CONS
- The US Treasury is under $353.5 Billion.
- DXY will continue to fall.
- The Decline of the US Dollar will continue.
- US Debt has exceeded $36 Trillion
- US Federal Debt Deficiency of over $2 Trillion (Must be paid prior to Interest Payments)
- US Federal Interest (over $1 Trillion)
- War in Iran
- USD could be converted to GOLD and moved to BTC
- Moody's US credit rating reduce.
- Interest Rate Cuts
US PROS
- Trump could get funding from another country.
- Interest Rate increases
- Positive FOMC in July
6.26 Gold intraday analysis and forecast—During the European session on Thursday (June 26), spot gold prices fluctuated significantly during the day, first falling and then rebounding, and are currently around 3337.60, fluctuating in a wide range.
The rebound from Tuesday's low of $3295 has risen above the previous support of $3340 (June 20 low), confirming a deeper bullish correction. The currency pair may be in the C-D leg of a small Gartley pattern, moving towards the downward trend line resistance since the mid-June high (previously $3450, currently $3365).
A break above this level will mark a trend reversal and shift the focus to the $3400 line, which suppressed bulls on June 17, 18 and 22.
On the downside, if the above trend line is blocked, it may first seek support at the intraday low of $3330 before looking at the previously mentioned $3295 (June 9 and 24 lows).
6.26 Gold intraday operation strategy, rebound 42-48 line shortFrom the 4-hour analysis, the upper resistance is around 3342-48. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall. The short-term support below is around 3314-3316 integers. The upper pressure is around 3342-48. The overall support relies on this range to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. The short-term long-short watershed is 3370. It is difficult to say that it is strong before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the session, so please pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short the gold rebound at 3345-48, stop loss at 3356, target 3317-3325, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Free fall on DXY?With gap open at 97.66 level before the monthly close price has broken the monthly support and started to drop. We may see the price to drop to long term monthly support at 96.622 or further below to 95.66 as with the increased bearish pressure we may see the price to continue to drop to this longer term support level.
As with upcoming USD news we may see the price to move to this level with high probability bearish trend.
6.26 Gold intraday analysis guideOn Wednesday (June 25), international spot gold rose slightly during the US trading session, but was still suppressed by the 20-day moving average (US$3,355). The RSI (14) was at 48.7, in the neutral range of 40-60, suggesting that the market lacks a clear direction. US$3,355 (20-day moving average) has become the recent watershed between long and short positions. If it breaks through this level, it may test the psychological barrier of US$3,400. The support below is US$3,245 (the low point on May 29). If it fails, it may drop to the integer level of 3,200 and US$3,121 (the low point on May 15). Stability of the geopolitical situation: If the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East continues, the outflow of safe-haven funds may further suppress the gold price. Fed policy expectations: If the July non-agricultural and CPI data show that inflation is cooling down, it may rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold. The current gold market is in a "wait-and-see mode", and both long and short sides lack decisive momentum. Traders need to pay close attention to: US economic data: especially employment and inflation indicators for the Fed's policy path. Geopolitical dynamics: Any breakdown of the ceasefire agreement could quickly push up safe-haven demand. Dollar trend: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, a stronger dollar may further suppress gold prices. Gold is expected to maintain range fluctuations in the short term, with the $3,355 moving average resistance and $3,245 support forming a key trading range. The direction of the breakthrough depends on new fundamental catalysts.
Personal operation analysis:
Trend: Oscillating trend
Support: Near 3,300.00
Resistance: Near 3,335.50
Strategy:
View logic: Short view near 3,335-3,340, stop loss 3,345, take profit near 3,300--3,280, and follow the stop loss 300 points.
Gold breaks down and moves downward, focus on the 3300 markWith the official ceasefire between Iran and Israel, although there are some repeated frictions in the middle, under Trump's mediation, both parties are relatively tolerant. It seems that the war has been declared over. Gold has also fallen sharply. In the early trading, it fell sharply to around 3333 and stabilized. After rebounding to around 3357, it fell again under pressure. During the European trading session, it broke the low and continued. It repeated around 3317/8 and fell again under pressure around 3332. This position has become the key pressure point for the current top and bottom conversion. In the evening, the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was also relatively cautious. He believed that inflation had declined, but it was still far from the 2% target. He tended to adjust interest rates after inflation achieved the target. Therefore, the double pressure caused gold to rebound weakly and repeatedly run weakly. At present, the lowest level reached 3304, which is one step away from the 3300 mark. Judging from the current trend, the overall weak pattern continues. In the evening, relying on the 3300 mark, try a long order for the last time, and then do a good job of continuing defense after the break.
6/24 Gold Evening Reference Ideas
Gold is long near 3303/05, defend 3298, target 3320/3330, short at 3298, defend 3305, target near 3276, short at 3330, defend 3337, watch 3316/08
24th JuneTA: Many confluences for a bearish bias. Only confirmation needed for high probability price action is running (closing below 4H SL) on 1H. We have to exercise some caution, because price is still in the area of the monthly sweep. For a trade PA has to give us optimal behaviour.
News: Powell testifies at 10:00am. This could lead to a very quick move below the swept monthly low.
Continue to short after the rebound on 6.24Judging from the current market trend, the upper short-term resistance is around 3343-48, the lower short-term support is around 3310-15, the short-term long-short strength watershed is 3300-05, the daily level is under pressure and continues to see suppression and adjustment, and the main tone should actually be rebound shorting.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold rebounds to 3343-48 and shorts, stop loss 3356, target 3317-3323, continue to hold if it breaks;
6.24 Gold safe haven fades and gold falls
Technical aspect: After the gold price hit the 3400 integer mark overnight, it fell rapidly under the impetus of negative news. The overall fluctuation range is still within the 3330-3400 range we expected. This shows that the current market dominated by news lacks continuity. We make a golden section of the high and low points of the overnight decline to the current level, and the current position of 0.618 is 3370.
Pressure level: 3370\3375\3400
Support level: 3330\3300
6.24 Gold resistance strengthens + kinetic energy exhaustionGold prices have fallen under pressure near $3,380 several times, and this area gathers three technical resistances:
1. The daily Bollinger band middle track 3,375 and the upper track 3,450 form a suppression.
2. The previous high of $3,400 plus the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level constitutes a concentrated selling pressure area.
3. The previous high of $3,451 failed to break through effectively, forming a bearish structure with the second highest point moving down.
Risk of breaking the shock range: Gold continues to trade sideways in the 3,300-3,450 range, but the K-line continues to close in a small real body alternating yin and yang pattern, indicating that the long and short momentum is exhausted. If it falls below 3,350 , a technical sell-off will be triggered, with the target pointing to 3,300-3,330!
SELL: 3,388\3,393 Stop loss: 3,398
Target: 3,360
Profit point: 30
6.23 Gold Short-term Technical AnalysisStimulated by geopolitical conflicts such as the US airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities on Monday, gold opened $24 higher at 3398 in the early trading. However, it failed to continue the upward trend and quickly fell back to the 3360-65 area. Retrieve all the gains!
Technical analysis: 4-hour head and shoulders top pattern: right shoulder 3373 neckline 3340 MACD dead cross diverges downward Bollinger band opening expansion and price running near the lower track, short-term trend is bearish, and the daily line is still in the rising channel!
Short-term operation:
SELL: 3375\3385 Stop loss: 3390
$1:3360 $2:3340
BUY: 3338\3345 Stop loss: 3353
$1:3380 $2:3400
Operation suggestion: High-altitude is the main, low-multiple is the radiation
6.23 Gold Short-term Technical GuidanceThe current price is in the double-line interval of 3350-3375 on the hourly chart. Please note that the four-hour lifeline 3368 is also the resistance point determined by the last rebound in the Asian session.
The Asian session fell under pressure and returned to the sweeping range. It was treated as a sweep. The European session was able to hold the 3350 mark. Look up to find the 3368 area, followed by 3375 and 3385-3388.
If the European session falls below and closes below 3350, the short-selling forces are dominant. The four-hour lifeline 3368 is used as suppression. Look down to find 3333-3331, followed by 3320-3315
Index/US) Bearish trend analysis Read The caption)SMC trading point update
Technical analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 30-minute timeframe, with the price respecting a clear downtrend and repeatedly rejecting a resistance zone near the 200 EMA.
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Analysis Breakdown
Key Technical Elements:
1. Downtrend Structure:
The price remains within a descending channel.
Multiple lower highs and lower lows signal sustained bearish pressure.
2. Resistance Zone:
Highlighted near 98.490–98.495, aligned with the EMA 200.
Multiple rejections from this level (indicated by red arrows), confirming strong supply.
3. EMA 200 (98.490):
Acts as dynamic resistance.
Price is below it, reinforcing the bearish bias.
4. Projected Move:
Bearish price path targets the 97.189 level (target point).
A measured move of approximately -1.30% is illustrated.
5. RSI (14):
RSI currently at 46.27, below the neutral 50 mark.
This confirms bearish momentum without being oversold, leaving room for further downside.
---
Bearish Thesis:
Repeated failure to break above key resistance + downward channel + RSI weakness suggests a continuation to the downside.
Short-term consolidation expected before breakdown continuation.
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Trade Idea Concept:
Entry: Sell on a minor pullback near resistance (~98.300–98.490), or breakdown below the recent minor support.
Target: 97.189 zone.
Stop Loss: Above 98.500 or EMA 200 to invalidate the bearish setup.
Mr SMC Trading point
Risks to Watch:
A break and strong close above 98.500 would invalidate the bearish structure and could initiate a trend reversal.
Economic events (noted by calendar icons) may trigger volatility – ideal to monitor closely around those times.
plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
The gold trend is perfectly in line with expectations.The recent trend of gold is consistent with my expectations. Overall, the rebound is mainly based on fluctuating downward, and the rhythm of the oscillation between long and short positions is perfectly grasped. The upper resistance is still strong, and gold can still be shorted if the rebound is not broken.
From the current analysis of the gold trend, the lower support focuses on the area around 3315-3305. If it falls back to this position range, continue to look at the continuation of the rebound upward; the upper resistance focuses on the area around 3350-3362. The overall rhythm of the high-altitude and low-multiple range is still maintained, and the strategy is mainly to participate in the range back and forth.
1. Go long when gold falls back to 3315-3305, and the target is 3330-3340;
2. Go short when gold rebounds to 3350-3360, and the target is 3340-3330.
DXY DownHaven't posted here in quite awhile, however just have been following trends watching bonds, stocks and bitcoin/gold. Looking at the DXY it appears to have fallen below the 100-101 level support and has since been rejected by that region on a weekly time frame. The support/resistance levels and trends line within have been charted for years and left unchanged. RSI is in the oversold territory but that can remain low for quite a long time, especially if the trend changes. I think the DXY goes to 90 over the next 6 months to 1 year.
Bullish for stocks, bitcoin, gold etc. Who is the fastest horse?
DXY Analysis Next Week After Market OpenUS tariff policy is becoming a key variable affecting the Fed's interest rate policy. Current tax policies are facing negative reactions and declining support rates, creating pressure on the US government to promote trade agreements and implement tax cuts to stabilize the economy.
At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in May, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, showing a cautious stance on inflation risks and low unemployment rates. The latest employment figures show that the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at the June meeting is very high.
As inventory accumulation can increase inflation, the Fed will wait for a clearer assessment of the impact of tax policies before making a decision. Accordingly, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates up to 3 times in the second half of the year is low.
The US dollar is expected to continue to decline to adjust
Best regards StarrOne !!!
BEARS STILL IN CHARGE ! DXY- USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25
BEARS CRUSHING THE USD!
Professional Risk Managers 👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies.
✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
Pairs to look out for -
EURUSD - BUY
USDCHF - SELL
USDJPY - SELL
USDCAD - SELL
GBPUSD - BUY
- Perhaps it's time to accept that a recovery in the DXY is not occurring anytime soon...
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EURUSD EURUSD presents another buy opportunity, and I've just activated the trade.
I wanted to share it with you as well. This trade has three different Take Profit levels, which are:
1.13455 / 1.13563 / 1.13786
However, I personally plan to close the trade at 1.13455 in order to stick to my game plan.
This will be the last trade of the day for me.
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 / 1:2.50 / 1:4.50
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 1.13290
✔️ Take Profit: 1.13455
✔️ Stop Loss: 1.13180
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
EURUSDHello everyone!
I'd like to share an ideal **Buy opportunity** on the **EURUSD** pair with you. The trade is currently **active** on my side.
🔍 **Criteria:**
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.17
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 1.13204
✔️ Take Profit: 1.13335
✔️ Stop Loss: 1.13092
🔔 **Disclaimer:** This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
Technical analysis of short-term gold operations!!!On Wednesday, the gold price generally showed a downward trend. The highest price rose to 3327.91 on the day, and the lowest price fell to 3266.79, closing at 3288.16. In view of the fact that gold fell under pressure during the early trading on Wednesday and broke through the four-hour and daily support as expected, and then the US market rebounded again and came under pressure, and finally ended in a big negative state at the daily level. The price has fallen below the daily support, so we need to pay attention to the continuation of the band decline in the future.
From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price rose for three months in the early stage and then a single-month correction appeared. Recently, it has risen for four months and then a single-month correction appeared. Therefore, according to the rhythm, four consecutive positives have appeared. For May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, the gold price is supported by the support level of the 3040 area. From the perspective of the medium-term, we can continue to maintain a bullish view, and the price drop is only a correction in the medium-term rise. From the daily level, the current price resistance is in the 3007 area, which is the key watershed of the band trend. If the price is below this position, the subsequent band will be treated as short. At the same time, for the short-term four-hour price resistance, it is around 3290, so the subsequent price will be treated as short under the four-hour resistance. In general, the price can be treated as short under the four-hour resistance and the daily resistance.