No Election Winner For Weeks, No ProblemElection day is finally here. My wave projections have changed a little, but not for the worst. I previously suspected us to be near the end of a major Grand SuperCycle, but I no longer believe that is the case. I shifted some of my waves around after running multiple tests and found a different mapping of the waves provided for more consistent ratios of wave lengths and movements. I previously had the “COVID crash” ending at Cycle wave 4 and leaving us about 18 months to complete the final Cycle wave 5. I now have that bottom in March ending Cycle wave 2 after it began in September 2019. Furthermore, instead of Cycle wave 1 only lasting a few years (2009 to 2011), I now had it run 9 years (March 2009 to September 2019. This all means the major market crash I was projecting in 2022 is now pushed to 2030 or later. Also, we are in for a major market boom beginning this December.
But first, we must move down. The next few weeks will likely be difficult as we wait for results, legal challenges, and other circus acts. I believe we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 2. The top we find today, or likely found this morning will be the end of Minute wave 4 and we should find the end of Minute wave 5 / Minor wave A on Thursday around 3150.39. We should tick up for Minor wave B until around November 20 with a top around 3384.68. We should finally end Intermediate wave 2 in mid-December (Dec 14-17) around 3024.09.
THE NUMBERS
Why those levels on those dates? Intermediate wave 2’s typically retrace the length of wave 1 by 34.49%. This would have wave 2 lasting about 48 trading days. Of those days, wave A normally comprises 37.55% (18 days), B is 25.20% (12 days), and C is 37.24% (18 days).
Intermediate wave 2 typically retraces the movement of wave 1 by about 45%. The minimum retracement over the past 88 years is 28.84%. I am conservatively sticking with a retracement around Fibonacci 38.2%. This would have wave 2 ending around 3021.44. Wave A typically accounts for 77.9% of the wave’s overall movement which would equate to a drop of 399.46 or a bottom around 3150.39. Wave B makes up 45.69% of the total or a rise of 234.29 points with a top around 3384.68. Finally wave C accounts for 70.32% of the larger wave which is a drop of 360.59 with the bottom around 3024.09.
REAL WORLD CAUSATION
Why the roller coaster? Lack of a clear winner tonight will likely cause some anxiety, additionally multiple states will not have all ballots counted until early next week. We may get the first glimpse of a projected winner after that but Congress must make it official and the lawyers on either side will likely be busy. Right now, Electoral College vote is set for December 14 and the lame duck Congress would certify shortly after. Once the winner is declared the jubilation will begin. I think I know who wins based on the trajectory of the market. We are about to start Intermediate wave 3 in Cycle wave 3 in Primary wave 1. This will lead to huge gains on continued cheap debt. The market is working on its day of reckoning when debt will be due. This date will be catastrophic, especially if we have another decade or more of cheap debt to rack up. Beyond 2030 will certainly see a prolonged great depression, but worrying about that now is unnecessary as the event is inevitable.
If the index moves above 3466 before it drops below 3234, my projections and even wave structure could be wrong. We shall see. Let me know where you think this mess is going. Thanks for reading.
