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Economic Cycles

2025 BTC.D - History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often RhymesJust thinking through this idea in regards to BTC.D In the last cycle BTC.D ramped up to consistently being above 60%, after its June 2020 lows, in the 4th week of October 2020. It ran up to 100% by the end of 2020 and then proceeded to roll over and fall back below 60% by the 3rd week of January 2021. Altseason started at the beginning of February 2021 with ETH & large cap projects. I'd like to think that Altseason officially ended by the end of May 2021 with a wild frenzy into memes (Doge, Shiba, Akita) setting new ATHs. If we're applying that same logic to this cycle then... BTC.D. will begin its ascent towards 100% dominance by passing 60% by the end of October 2024 (as of today, it's October 30th) and then start to roll over the 2nd-ish to 3rd-ish week of January 2025, to start the New Year! From there we can estimate that Altseason will start sometime around the 1st-ish week to 2nd-ish week of February 2025. It will last until, I'm thinking, the end of April 2025 to middle-ish of May 2025 (at the latest). Additional Thoughts: We may get a blowoff top scenario by end of September 2025 / October 2025... but that's TBD. I'm not sure a double peak is guaranteed or in the cards this cycle. So, it may be wise to leave something in your bag headed into the end of year (Q3 / Q4), just so you can say mama we made it. IDK - just thoughts and not financial advice. Resource & Thoughts Consider the Path to Altseason by Secrets of Crypto Would definitely have to consider macro, m2 & m3 and the US presidential election
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by jamiroquaicrypto
2
LINK Fractal | ALTS | Chainlink can EASILY +90%Chainlink is one of those alts that haven't yet made a new ATH with the rest of larger alt market group. This means that the bullish cycle is taking a detour and it could be extended to another multi-month cycle, as I've previously stated in my BTC updates. If LINK follows the previous pattern of a multi-month extended patter, we could see a fractal playout that takes us beyond the current ATH over the next few months. _________________________ BINANCE:LINKUSDT
Long
by Crypto-Check-
Outlook for the next weeks (i love these XD)Right now, i am looking for some kind of pullback before going up. I have marked 3 most important zones and i will look forward to trade from them. But everything can happen so we as a traders need to stay flexible. The Fundamental side still looks great. But the question is whether inflation will rise and unemployment will fall, as this could mean slowing growth and postponing further rate cuts. Wages have also increased, which could mean that there is a greater demand for employees, or there is a great demand on the market for goods and services, which could mean increasing inflation. On the other hand PMI looks great and CPI + PPI is neutral. Tell me whats your analysys, let me know in the comments. I am open to every point of view to the situation and I am happy to learn :)
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Filip_Kozak
Bitcoin crystal ballEvery investor and trader has at sometime wished they had a crystal ball. You can do your own due diligence, taking the time to do technical and fundamental analysis weighing market sentiment and still not be 100% correct every single time. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. So with that said, if you look back at Bitcoin's price discovery history, you can see the general and specific trades you "should" have made. However, how do we extrapolate this data into future trades we "should" make? For me, It's all based on probability and risk management. I look for high probability and low risk trades. Most of the time a trade is not ready for that perfect timing to trade. It takes planning and patience to setup a great entry and exit. The old adage, “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market.” That's why investors simply hold on with a long term bullish trend. But, what if you had a crystal ball? Then obviously you would time selling the major tops and buying major lows. Here's a Bitcoin 1 week chart with Heikin Ashi candlesticks without wicks, to take out the visual noise. In the past 7 years, I have identified only 7 major long trades and 6 major short trades. Why is this important? It means that the last best time to go long was the week of 9/9/24. And it also means the next trade is a short trade. This does not mean the timing is to short Bitcoin today. It just means that if you had a crystal ball you would know when to exit your long position. For now Bitcoin is still a long to hold on to. BTC/USD crystal ball trades: #7 long = $54,566 w/o 9/9/24 short = ? w/o ? profit = ? time = ? #6 long = $24,900 w/o 9/11/23 short = $72,777 w/o 4/8/24 profit = $47,877 = 2.92x time = 7 months #5 long = $16,543 w/o 1/2/23 short = $31,050 w/o 4/10/23 profit = $14,507 = 1.88x time = 3 months #4 long = $29,302 w/o 7/19/21 short = $69,000 w/o 10/8/21 profit = $39,698 = 2.35x time = 3 months #3 long = $5853 w/o 3/30/20 short = $64,899 w/o 4/12/21 profit = $59,046 = 11.09x time = 14 months #2 long = $3341 w/o 2/4/19 short = $12,320 w/o 8/5/19 profit = $8979 = 3.69x time = 7 months #1 long = $1758 w/o 7/10/17 short = $16,275 w/o 1/8/18 profit = $14,517 = 9.26x time = 6 months
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Options360