Detailed analysis of consolidation and growth phases in Nifty. Look at the chart of Nifty carefully. The Circles C1, C2, C3 and C4 show the consolidation phases of Nifty in last 125 Months each time after it makes a new high. Th period between the circles is the growth phase. We will study it carefully and try to derive the conclusions thereoff. To the onset let me tell you that stock market investment are subject to Macro and Micro risks. It is not necessary that the lightning will strike twice at the same spot. But we will use this data and try to measure the statistical possibility of growth and rate at which our investments can grow.
First let us look at Consolidation Phase C1 phase and growth phase that happened thereafter:
C1 Starts in March 2015 when Nifty made a high of 9119. Post that it consolidated for 24 months and came out of consolidation when it gave a closing above previous high in March 2017 when Nifty closed at 9173.
Growth Phase 1 (34 Months) . When Nifty has given a closing above previous high it embarks the journey of growth. It might momentarily go below the past high in some cases but we still consider that whole phase as a growth phase for better understanding and calculation purpose. The next high that Nifty makes is 12430 in January 2020.
Calculations: C1 and Growth Phase 1.
So the actual growth achieved = (12430-9191) = 3311. Which was a 36.3% growth achieved in a Bull Run that lasted 34 months. Which equates to roughly 1.06% Growth per month during the Bull Phase. If you look at the cumulative growth (34 months of bull run + 24 months of consolidation period = 58 months) we get 36.3/58 = 0.62% Growth per month. (During the whole Bull and Bear/Consolidation cycle).
Now let us look at Consolidation Phase C2 phase and growth phase that happened thereafter:
C2 Starts in January 2020 when Nifty made a high of 12430. Post that it consolidated for 10 months and came out of consolidation when it gave a closing above previous high in November 2020 when Nifty closed at 12968.
Growth Phase 2 (11 Months) . When Nifty has given a closing above previous high it embarks the journey of growth. It might momentarily go below the past high in some cases but we still consider that whole phase as a growth phase for better understanding and calculation purpose. The next high that Nifty makes is 18604 in October 21.
Calculations: C2 and Growth Phase 2
So the actual growth achieved = (18604-12430) = 6174. Which was a 49.67% growth achieved in a Bull Run that lasted 11 months. Which equates to roughly 4.5% Growth per month during the Bull Phase. If you look at the cumulative growth (11 months of bull run + 10 months of consolidation period = 21 months) we get 49.67/21 = 2.37% Growth per month. (During the whole Bull and Bear/Consolidation cycle).
Now let us look at Consolidation Phase C3 phase and growth phase that happened thereafter:
C3 Starts in October 2021 when Nifty made a high of 18604. Post that it consolidated for 13 months and came out of consolidation when it gave a closing above previous high in November 2022 when Nifty closed at 18758.
Growth Phase 3 (22 Months). When Nifty has given a closing above previous high it embarks the journey of growth. It might momentarily go below the past high in some cases but we still consider that whole phase as a growth phase for better understanding and calculation purpose. The next high that Nifty makes is 26277 in September 2024.
Calculations: C3 and Growth Phase 3.
So the actual growth achieved = (26277-18604) = 7673. Which was a 41.2% growth achieved in a Bull Run that lasted 22 months. Which equates to roughly 1.87% Growth per month during the Bull phase. If you look at the cumulative growth (22 months of bull run + 13 months of consolidation period = 35 months) we get 41.2/35 = 1.17% Growth per month. (During the whole Bull and Bear/Consolidation cycle).
Right Now we are in C4 which is the consolidation phase which started in September 2024. Next trading day is in September 2025 so we have almost completed 12 months of consolidation phase. When exactly this phase will be over we can not say but let us look at statistical possibility: (Again let me retrate performance of past can not guarantee performance of future but let us see what statistics has to say).
If we look at data from C1, C2 and C3:
Average Consolidation phase length has been 24 (C1) + 10 (C2) + 13 (C3)= 15.6 Months (Almost 12 months have passed so investors should keep the faith and have little more patience).
Average Bull Phase or the Growth phase post completion of Consolidation lasts for 34 (Growth Phase 1) + 11 (Growth Phase 2) + 22 (Growth Phase 3)= 22.33 Months (So there is a huge probability the phase that everyone will enjoy is near by and we are certainly going to be rewarded sooner than later.)
Average Growth during the Growth Phases= 1.06(Growth Phase 1) + 4.5(Growth Phase 2) + 1.87(Growth Phase 3) = 7.43/3 = 2.48% per month.
Average Cumulative Growth considering both Growth phases and Consolidation phase = 0.62(58 Months during C1 and Growth Phase 1) + 2.37(21 months during C2 and Growth Phase 2) + 1.87(35 months of C3 and Growth phase 3) = 4.86/3 = 1.62%.
Conclusion:
/ After every high there is a substantial consolidation phase.
/ If you keep patience during consolidation phase you will be rewarded handsomely by equity market.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. There are a lot of assumptions in data and pure statistics is not applied. We just want to pass on the message that markets have always be rewarding the patient. That does not mean they will continue to do so in future but we are working on probabilities and assumptions here. There can be some mistakes in assumptions and calculations. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
