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BTCUSDT final leg down short?Is it time for BTC to go down? Is this the start of a possible 5th wave? This is only one possible TA for short, although there are many arguments and the possibility that BTC is still going up. But currently the risk reward is so good that this trade looks very attractive. The analysis was made with Fibonacci, Elliot waves and harmonic patterns. Currently BTC reached TP1 for Anti Bat pattern. More on this, that is, in more detail the next day or two, when I have a little more time (and until then, if the bulls want to, I can disable this idea)
Short
by CryptoArch_
BTC Week 1 Analysis—October 2023First Published: October 8, 2023 Disclaimer: Please be aware that the information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets carries inherit risk, always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Introduction: Welcome to our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 1, 2023. This analysis offers continued insights into BTC price action, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis conducted on the BITSTAMP Daily, Four Hourly, and Hourly time frames. Our objective is to provide traders with unbiased, EWT-based evidence to support their decision making process. Primary Assumption: Our Weekly analysis builds upon the data presented in our October BTC Monthly Thesis, and the EWT count remains valid to the completion of Primary Wave 4. As a result, a count invalidation number has been established at what we believe to be the beginning of Primary Wave 5. Macro Analysis: Our Weekly Analysis begins with a focus on the Daily time frame, aiming to identify the wave in which current price action resides. Commencing at the start of Primary Wave 5, we observe a valid five-wave move down to the September 2023 low, effectively completing Intermediate Wave 1. Subsequently, we witness price action retracing into Intermediate Wave 2. With confirmation that price action is currently within Intermediate Wave 2, we identify key levels at which price action is expected to retrace. Typically, Wave 2 retraces within the range defined by the Yellow 0.618 and 0.75 FIB levels, as displayed on the Daily time frame. Wave Form Analysis: Transitioning from the Daily time frame, our analysis shifts to the Four Hourly as we embark on our Wave Form Analysis. Our primary objective is to identify the corrective wave form that Intermediate Wave 2 is currently developing. Wave 2 is a corrective wave, typically taking the form of a simple Zig Zag correction. However, it's worth noting that Wave 2 can occasionally manifest in alternate forms, such as a Triangle, as was the case in Primary Wave 2 of Cycle Wave C of this correction. To accurately identify the wave form that price action is adopting, we must consider all potential corrective wave structures. If price action forms a Zig Zag correction, we will observe a 5-3-5 wave pattern. If price action forms a Flat correction, we will observe a 3-3-5 wave pattern. If price action forms a Triangle correction, we will observe a 3-3-3-3-3 wave pattern. In the event of a Combination correction, we may encounter two or more variations of these corrective wave forms. After the completion of Intermediate Wave 1, price action has displayed two highs and one low, indicating that Intermediate Wave 2 is forming a three-wave pattern. Consequently, the possibility of Intermediate Wave 2 adopting a Triangle formation has been ruled out. Additionally, the Flat corrective pattern can be eliminated as Wave B did not conclude at, or beyond, the point of Intermediate Wave 1 completion. Hence, the prevailing price action suggests that Intermediate Wave 2 is evolving as a Zig Zag correction. It's important to note that while the current price action strongly indicates a Zig Zag wave form for Intermediate Wave 2, the remote possibility of it forming an EWT Combination correction still lingers. Assuming Wave A and B are now complete, the Four Hourly time frame reveals potential targets for Wave C completion at the Yellow 1 and 1.236 FIB levels. In cases where Wave C is extended, the target for completion shifts to the Yellow 1.618 FIB level. Micro Analysis: Once we have identified the wave form of Intermediate Wave 2, our analysis shifts to the Hourly time frame. Our goal is to validate the wave count and pinpoint crucial levels that signify the completion of Intermediate Wave 2, and the commencement of Intermediate Wave 3. To confirm whether this correction takes the form of a Zig Zag, we need the three-wave correction to adhere to a 5-3-5 pattern. Our analysis commences at the September 12 low, where Minor Wave A initiates with an impulse, establishing Minute Wave 1. Price action retraces into Minute Wave 2 prior to Minute Wave 3 which unfolded with an extended Wave 3 and 5, culminating on the September 15 high. Minute Wave 4 takes the form of a Complex EWT Combination correction, concluding on September 18. Minute Wave 5 then materializes as an Ending Diagonal, completing a valid five-wave move within Minor Wave A. With the validation of a five-wave sequence in Minor Wave A, our focus shifts towards confirming a three-wave sequence for Minor Wave B. This sequence commences as price action forms a double Zig Zag pattern, finalizing Minute Wave A at the September 22 low. Minute Wave B unfolds as a Triangle, completing on the September 25 high. Subsequently, Minute Wave C also takes the form of a double Zig Zag, constituting a valid three-wave sequence within Major Wave B, ending on the September 25 low. Major Wave C commenced with an impulse into Minute Wave 1, followed by price action retracing into Minute Wave 2, which completed on the September 27 low. Price action then surged into Minuette Wave 1 on the September 27 high, retracing into Minuette Wave 2, prior to Minuette Wave 3 unfolding with an extension, culminating on the October 3 high. Presently, price action has retraced and currently resides within Minuette Wave 4, of Minute Wave 3, of Major Wave C, of Intermediate Wave 2, of Primary Wave 5, of Cycle Wave C, of Wave 4, of the Super Cycle. Outlook: Until price action surpasses the completion of Minuette Wave 3, our assumption is that it remains within Minuette Wave 4 of Major Wave C. We anticipate this correction taking the form of some complex EWT combination correction, given that Minuette Wave 3 concluded with an extended Wave 3 and 5, culminating in an Expanding Diagonal. While we refrain from attempting to predict the specific nature of the correction currently unfolding within Minuette Wave 4, we can make reasonable predictions about its behavior. Price action is not expected to venture into the price territory of Minuette Wave 1. As such, we've established a Micro Count Invalidation at the completion of Minuette Wave 1. Major Wave C will remain incomplete until both Minuette Wave 5 and Minute Wave 5 have concluded. Consequently, we anticipate two additional local highs on the Daily time frame this month, with the second forming what will be the upper wick of the Monthly candle. Should price action remain above our Micro Count Invalidation point, our expectation is for a climb to the Blue -0.236 FIB level, indicated on the Hourly time frame, which will signify the completion of Minute Wave 3. Subsequently, we anticipate a retracement into Minute Wave 4, followed by the final push to complete Minute Wave 5, Major Wave C, and Intermediate Wave 2 at the Yellow -0.236 FIB level as indicated on the Hourly chart. This event will mark a significant reversal as price action transitions from Intermediate Wave 2 into Intermediate Wave 3. Conclusion: Our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 1, 2023, has offered valuable insights into the current state of BTC price action, and serves as a crucial bridge between our BTC Monthly Thesis, offering traders a more immediate perspective on the evolving Elliott Wave structure of BTC. As always, our aim is to empower traders with objective analysis, enabling them to make confident and well informed trading decisions in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JMSBurton
Crude Oil: Ongoing Elliott Wave Corrective Drop Can Be DeeperCrude oil has been on the rise over the last view weeks, which is the main reason why inflation is still the main global problem, so we have seen some positive correlation between dollar and crude as speculators believe that rates will stay here higher for longer. Well, what’s interesting now is that after that after a lot of crude oil bull calls for 100 dollar and higher, the energy is turning south. Looking at the current intraday drop, we can see some sharp move down now, it looks like an ongoing intraday impulse with room for more weakness after Crude inventory data shows decline of 2.2 million barrels last week. From an Elliott wave perspective that’s going impulse for wave A, so more weakness can be seen after subwave iv rally, or even after wave B bounce. Resistance is at 86.75 and 88.30. In fact, lower energy can also mean that inflation can slow down, and this can then at some point puts limited upside for the USD and yields. Grega
NYMEX:CLZ2023Short
by ew-forecast
AUD/JPY: Bullish Trend Pauses for a Pullback-- 30-Minute Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a narrow range on the 30-minute chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.20 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. -- 4-Hour Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.50 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. -- Daily Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the daily chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 95.00 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. Elliott Wave Analysis Based on Elliott Wave Theory, as marked on my chart, the AUD/JPY pair may be in the process of completing a five-wave upward Elliott wave pattern. If this is the case, the pair could experience a significant pullback in the near future. AUD/JPY Fundamental and Technical Analysis for 4 October 2023 (30-min, 4-h, and Daily Charts) Fundamental Analysis The Australian dollar (AUD) is a commodity currency, meaning that its value is closely linked to the prices of commodities such as iron ore and coal. The Japanese yen (JPY) is a safe-haven currency, meaning that it tends to appreciate in value during times of market turmoil. The AUD/JPY currency pair is often seen as a proxy for risk appetite. When investors are feeling optimistic about the global economy, they tend to buy the AUD/JPY pair. When investors are feeling cautious, they tend to sell the AUD/JPY pair. Technical Analysis 30-Minute Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a narrow range on the 30-minute chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.20 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. 4-Hour Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the 4-hour chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 94.50 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. Daily Chart The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading in a bullish trend on the daily chart. The pair is facing resistance at the 95.00 level and support at the 94.00 level. The RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. However, the MACD indicator is still generating bullish signals. Elliott Wave Analysis Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the AUD/JPY pair may be in the process of completing a five-wave upward Elliott wave pattern. If this is the case, the pair could experience a significant pullback in the near future. Conclusion Overall, the AUD/JPY pair is in a bullish trend on all three timeframes. However, the RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory on all three timeframes, suggesting that the pair may be due for a pullback. Traders should watch the key support and resistance levels mentioned above carefully. A break above the 94.50 level on the 4-hour chart would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. A break below the 94.00 level on the 4-hour chart would suggest a pullback is underway.
Short
by YExplore
EUR/USD: Oversold, But Still BearishThe EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a downtrend on all three timeframes (30-min, 4-hour, and daily). On the 30-minute chart, the pair is trading below its 200-period moving average, which is a bearish signal. The pair is also trading below a descending trendline, which provides further resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD currency pair is also trading below its 200-period moving average. The pair is also trading within a descending triangle pattern, which is a bearish pattern. On the daily chart, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading below its 50-period moving average, which is a bearish signal. The pair is also trading within a descending channel pattern, which is another bearish pattern. Overall, the technical analysis on all three timeframes is bearish for the EUR/USD currency pair. Elliot Wave Analysis Based on Elliot Wave Theory, the EUR/USD currency pair is likely in a corrective wave C of a larger degree wave down. This means that the pair is likely to continue lower in the near term. RSI and MACD The RSI indicator on all three timeframes (30-min, 4-hour, and daily) is in oversold territory. This means that the pair is technically oversold and may be due for a bounce. However, the oversold condition does not necessarily mean that the pair will reverse its downtrend. The MACD indicator on all three timeframes (30-min, 4-hour, and daily) is bearish. This means that the selling pressure in the market is stronger than the buying pressure. Conclusion The EUR/USD currency pair is in a downtrend on all three timeframes (30-min, 4-hour, and daily). The technical analysis, Elliot Wave Theory, and MACD indicator are all bearish for the pair. The RSI indicator is oversold, but this does not necessarily mean that the pair will reverse its downtrend. Trading Strategy Based on the technical analysis, traders may want to consider shorting the EUR/USD currency pair at current levels. However, traders should be aware that the pair is oversold and may be due for a bounce. Traders should also be aware of the geopolitical tensions and the weakening economic outlook in Europe, which could weigh on the euro in the medium to long term.
Short
by YExplore
4
Japanese Yen Is Trading At The SupportJapanese Yen has been one of the weakest currency in the last couple of months. But, looking at the JPY Futures chart, we can see it finishing a larger A-B-C corrective decline, while it's trading at the support, which can cause reversal and recovery for the Japanese Yen. Even COT data of the japanese Yen shows extreme levels for Large speculators (green). It means that we may see some slow down of a current bear move, or even rally in the months ahead.
CME:6J1!Long
by ew-forecast
USD/CAD: Short Term "Buy the Dip" strategy!From a technical point of view,, the FX:USDCAD pair is bearish in short term, but at the same time, we think a corrective structure "must" be triggered. With this in mind, the strategy is simple: "Buy the Dip" on the intraday chart (1H time frame). On chart I have shown some potential targets that could be reached, but to understand which of these to look at, we need to follow the swing that will form (3 or 5 waves), so it will be necessary to follow and update this analysis (levels) along the way. Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
Long
by TheAnonymousBanker
13
Bitcoin possible correction end When & WhereAccording to socionomics, Elliot waves can help in projecting the possible social mood of traders reflected by the price movement. We can see the possible area for the end of wave C as the potential end of wave 2 and the start of bigger wave 3. Time wise, if the 12345 wave take 61.8% of the movement and ABC correction the remaining 38.2% time, we can project the end of correction as you can see on the chart. Fun fact is that also wave 3 ended near 38.2% of the time passed from the considered time projection. We have a lot of bids on the order book of Binance (about 650 at the time of writing) around 25K, the highest since the local top. It gives a possible area for wave C to finish around 61.8% of wave A. But if it goes as much as wave A it can finish around 23K area which has the highest trading volume in case of volume profile. *** The most important point is, according to the fractal principle of Elliot wave theory, 5 waves can be considered as a bigger wave 1 and then the ABC correction as a bigger wave 2, then it can be the start of the wave 3 which is usually the strongest wave among all 5. If the new bigger wave 3 just moves as much as the wave 1 (what we saw since 15K - 30K) it can go up 100%. If you want to know more about the Elliot's wave C: Wave C is the final wave in a typical A-B-C corrective pattern according to Elliott Wave Theory. It's the wave where the price usually experiences a strong movement in the opposite direction of the primary trend. Here are some key points about Wave C: Structure: Wave C usually unfolds as a five-wave impulse sequence (1-2-3-4-5), similar to the pattern seen in the main motive phase. However, in certain cases, it can also unfold as an ending diagonal, a type of structure that is characterized by overlapping waves and tends to appear in the final move of larger patterns. Relationship to Wave A: Wave C is often related to Wave A in terms of their lengths. The most common relationship is equality, meaning Wave C is often the same length as Wave A. Other common ratios based on Fibonacci numbers include 1.618 or 0.618 times the length of Wave A. Finality: Completion of Wave C typically marks the end of the correction and a potential resumption of the primary trend. If the trend was up before the correction started, then the end of Wave C would often be a good buying opportunity and vice versa. Wave C in Expanded Flats: In the case of expanded flat corrections, Wave C moves beyond the end of Wave A. This is a situation where Wave C is an impulse wave and it extends beyond the ending point of Wave A. Characteristics: Wave C tends to be quite powerful and swift, as it represents the final move in the corrective phase and is where the previous trend's participants are finally squeezed out before the main trend resumes. Remember that the Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis based on crowd psychology and pattern recognition. As such, it's not a guaranteed prediction tool, but rather a way of understanding the structure of market movements. The actual market behavior may not always perfectly align with the principles, and it's always recommended to use it in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management techniques.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by NoaTrader
Apple ready to resume higher after pullback. In this article, I want to bring attention to the failure break on Apple yesterday. It's true, good news occurs in an uptrend, but should be careful when good news pushes sentiment to extremes. Must be an over-crowded reaction after the new product announcements. As you know the big announcement was the debut of the Apple Vision Pro. However, maybe there was a bit of too much optimism from the buyers, so the market normally does the opposite... when least expected. From an Elliott wave principle looks like we can see some retracement before uptrend may resume which is in full progress now. We talked about this bull run already back in January. Well, before bull run can be done, we need five waves up. But notice that's not the case yet. In fact, there can be wave four pullback ahead, so its worth wait for a retracement first and then maybe look for longs from 165-170 area, where we also see a gap from May 04 earnings. I also talked about this chart in our webinar today here on TV, check the link to the recording below. Grega
NASDAQ:AAPL
by ew-forecast
Gold looking BEARISHGold has had a fantastic bull run since December 2015, however this trend may be due for a reversal ahead. The Green wave 5 seems to have completed, so an entry on a short position can be taken at the current price of 1960.39 Further size can be added to the short if the price reaches 2068.32 as this could be the final push upwards before the reversal. The weekly RSI is "bearishly diverging" meaning we are seeing higher highs in price with lower highs in the RSI, although in this case the highs in price are at the same level. A conservative target that will commonly be reached is the 0.382 retracement of all 5 green waves at the 1641 level. Given that this is on the weekly chart, this could take between 6-12 months to play out. Entry 1 = 1960.39 Entry 2 = 2068.32 Take profit = 1641.51 Stop loss = 2185.85
TVC:GOLDShort
by TradewithLu
Render's Rally ending? Trading Insights & Retrace AspectsThe rally in Render appears to be reaching its conclusion. Over the past few months, Render has been an intriguing trading token, outperforming BTC by surging from 0.9 to its monthly resistance level of 2.93 (Bybit). Based on my wave count analysis, it seems that we are approaching the end of the rally at this resistance point. I observe a potential ending diagonal pattern, consisting of a fifth wave within a fifth wave within a fifth wave, characterized by declining volume. A final upward push towards the monthly resistance, accompanied by RSI divergence, could serve as a short trigger. Alternatively, a more cautious approach would be to wait for the breach of the extreme point of wave 3 within the ending diagonal. If a retracement occurs, the target could be a return to the previous fourth wave of a lower degree. This area coincides with a monthly resistance level, Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level, and the fixed range point of control for wave 4 according to my highest count degree. In conclusion, the success of this swing trade will depend on the extent of the upward movement before encountering divergences or a reversal. If realized, this trade has the potential for a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 3.85. I will closely monitor Render for further signs of weakness, which could present a short-selling opportunity, or to observe if it breaks through the monthly support level accompanied by notable volume
RShort
by Ingvar77
Gold Elliot 5th Wave Swing LongHere you can see the possible start of Elliot's 5th Wave (The Green). The end of wave 4 is also matched with Bollinger's Lower Band and Top of Ichimoku cloud. It's A price where a lot of indicators and stuff may give the same signal. Here is the bigger picture wave counting: It is all just a technical analysis and a new ATH for gold is a huge deal which should be aligned with other economic factors. All I can say about them is that DXY is again back to the red Ichimoku cloud but ZN1 is still bearish and bellow the red Ichimoku cloud. We set the high of last candle as the entry, low of the previous candle as the stop loss and the ATH as the Take profit target. Good Risk to Reward ratio and possible higher targets if breakout happens. Entry 1985 Stop Loss 1950 Take Profit 2050 I would be glad to hear your opinion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NoaTrader
BNBUSDT BEARISH, Bulls be careful!This analysis is on BNBUSDT however, it relates to the market as a whole as all major crypto coins usually trend in the same direction. This (A)(B)(C) Elliott Wave pattern indicates weakness from the bulls. Wave (C) formed an "ending wave diagonal" where wave 3 is shorter than 1 and 5 is shorted than 3. This usually indicates exhaustion from the bulls and a reversal to the downside. The red box indicates an area that would be good to enter a short position. The green box is where previous support was found due to high levels of volume being recorded. The green box is also where (D) would equal 0.618 (the golden ratio) of (B). This is a common ratio for wave (D) if an ABCDE triangle was to form. In order to reach this level, the price would need to break below the upward sloping trend line. I hope this helps you with your trading and as always, good luck! Disclaimer: Not financial advice, intended for educational purposes only
Short
by TradewithLu
ABFRL POSSIBLE WAVE COUNTS - ADITYA BIRLA FASHION AND RETAILHello Friends, Today I am sharing my view on Aditya Birla Fashion And Retail Limited. ABFRL is now ready for new long positions as per Elliot Wave structure. It is suppose to complete WAVE ABC as Expanded Flat Correction which usually comes in 3-3-5 waves. Now price is in 5th wave of corrective wave ABC which any time get reversal from downtrend to uptrend. MACD showing strength as price is making lower low but macd makiing higher low similar Scenario with RSI confirmation of reversal One can make new long positions in ABFRL after the breakout of wedge pattern. Disclaimer I am not SEBI registered analyst. all the studies are for educational purposes. I am not responsible for any kind of your profits and losses.
NSE:ABFRLLong
by KARANN_DINGRA
6