USOIL Is Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 69.178.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 66.684 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Energy Commodities
Crude Oil setting up for a Long Trade to $78.40In the long term, Crude Oil is in a short position.
We can see this from the red pendulum fork, which projects the price movement downward.
However, in the short- to medium-term, we're long, as clearly illustrated by the white fork. Supporting the case for higher prices is the Hagopian signal that occurred on June 24, 2025.
This essentially means that the market is expected to rise beyond the point it came from—specifically, the C-point of the red fork. The target would therefore be around $78.40 in the coming weeks or months, which does seem quite ambitious.
But as long as price remains within the boundaries of the white fork, we're in an upward mode, and the potential profit target of $78.40 remains valid.
Also, the fact that Crude Oil is finding support exactly at the L-MLH (Lower Median Line Parallel) of the white fork gives me further confidence in a long trade.
Crude: Long and: Don't forget to watch the follow-up Video.
USOIL declines for the 3 days in a row. What's next?USOIL declines for the 3 days in a row. What's next?
Since the last post the USOIL has already declined on 2.5%, currently rebounding from SMA50 on 4-h chart. 2 main reasons are behind this.
On August 3, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their partners, collectively known as OPEC+, decided to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the latest in a series of swift production boosts aimed at regaining market share. They cited a robust economic outlook and low inventories as the reasons for their decision. However, Friday NFP report may signal of a potential recession risk in the United States, the biggest oil consumer in the world. Here is what the Goldman Sachs writes down in x.com: "The decline in employment growth over the previous two months in the July report was one of the largest since 1960 and was accompanied by several months of similar revisions earlier. Corrections of this magnitude are extremely rare outside of the recession period."
So, fundamentals don't favor oil and despite the current rebound from SMA50, there are low chances of developing some bullish momentum here. The pullback from 6,800.00 is expected with the following decline towards 6,500.00
WTI: downside potentialHi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Weekly timeframe
A buyer initiative is tentatively developing, yet the strongest buyer candle (highest volume) produced no follow-through. It was followed by two buyer candles on weak volume. Last week volume expanded again and clustered around 69.975, showing that sellers are still defending this level. Weekly seller targets: 65.628 and 64.378.
Daily timeframe
Sellers remain in control. The chart clearly shows volume manipulation around 69.975. Daily seller targets: 65.628 and 64.736.
Wishing you profitable trades!
Crude Oil Price Action & Pattern Analysis
Bearish Wedge Breakdown:
The price was consolidating in a descending triangle / wedge pattern.
It has now broken below the wedge, suggesting potential bearish continuation.
Key Support Zones:
Immediate support near 68.60 - 68.80 (highlighted in blue).
FOREXCOM:USOIL
The break of the 68.60 level with a strong bearish candle would serve as confirmation of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern , with solid bearish implications.
Stronger support around 66.20 - 66.50 , which is a previous demand zone.
Resistance Zone:
The red zone around 69.40 - 69.50 represents a rejection area , and the price failed to break above it.
USOIL: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
USOIL
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy USOIL
Entry - 67.25
Stop - 66.67
Take - 68.53
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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BRIEFING Week #31 : S&P ATH may have been a TrapHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Sell NATGAS into OCT/NOVNatalie has fromed a H&S and has broke through all of the supporting EMAs leading to most of the indicators turning bearish.
My approach for the forseeable is seeling bounces until the winter season approaches.
Of course Natalie is extremely susceptible to trend changes due to economical data and has to be monitored closely. Currenlty I'm a bear.
Only selling once it breaks and retests, where I will once again reasses based on economics such as storage, production, imports and demand.
Target around $2.5 where interestingly a gap (red rectangle) sits from Nov - 24.
Elliot Wave (although not a great fan) kind of aligns as well as the 0.786 fib level which began forming at the beginning of 2024.
Storage | Volatility | Price Outlook
U.S. natural gas markets are stabilizing as volatility trends back toward seasonal norms.
📉 Volatility has dropped from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% in mid-2025
🏪 Storage is currently at 3,075 Bcf,
🔻 4.7% lower YoY
🔺 5.9% higher than the 5-year average
🚢 LNG exports remain strong—up 22% YoY and 74% above the 5-year average
🔌 Domestic demand is seasonally weaker but steady
➡️ Despite being below last year’s levels, storage surplus vs. the 5-year average acts as a soft ceiling on price.
➡️ Historical analogs suggest a fair value range between $2.50–$3.20/MMBtu in the short term.
📊 Current price action around $3.00–$3.40 looks slightly overheated unless a fresh catalyst emerges (heatwave, export spike, etc.).
🧭 Watching for:
Injection trends over the next few weeks
Cooling demand in power sector
Resistance around $3.40
Support near $2.80
USOIL Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 67.25 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 68.74
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL Technical Analysis – Black Mind Curve Breakout & Reversal🔍 Overall Market Context:
The current USOIL structure is a great example of market shift from compression to expansion, characterized by a breakout of the Black Mind Curve followed by a measured impulse move. This chart is not just reacting technically, but it reflects how institutional smart money manipulates curves, breaks minor structures, and then retests zones to refill orders before continuing directionally.
Let’s break the market psychology and price action phase by phase:
🔄 Phase 1: Black Mind Curve Breakout ✅
The Black Mind Curve represents long-standing supply pressure that had been capping price.
Its breakout marks a shift in market intention, often signaling the end of a distribution phase and beginning of a possible accumulation or re-accumulation.
Price broke above this curve cleanly with strong bullish candles, which also broke minor structure levels, confirming short-term bullish sentiment.
The breakout was also backed by momentum and volume as the market pushed 130+ pips upward—an aggressive impulse that trapped late sellers below.
📉 Phase 2: Retracement to Interchange Zones
Now, we’re in the retracement phase, where price is pulling back toward:
🔹 SR Interchange Zone ($66.80 - $67.30)
This zone was previous resistance, now flipping to support.
In MMC terms, this area is expected to serve as a refill zone where smart money will look to accumulate again after the breakout.
We are watching for confirmation candles or MMC-style reversal patterns here (e.g., inside bar breakouts, demand imbalances).
🔹 Main Zone ($65.80 - $66.50)
If the first zone fails, this is the next key demand base.
It holds historical value from previous accumulation phases (see July 10–25) and aligns with the origin of the last impulse.
Expect a sharper wick or deeper liquidity grab if price moves into this area.
📉 Phase 3: Final Defensive Zone – Major Support ($63.70 - $65.20)
This zone marks the last line of bullish defense.
A move here would mean the bullish structure is being reevaluated or absorbed by sellers.
However, if price hits this level, it could also attract significant institutional demand, setting up for a more powerful long-term leg up.
Reactions here are typically large and volatile, with a risk of fakeouts and fast reversals.
📈 Possible Scenarios (MMC Based Forecasting):
✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Primary Path)
Price finds support inside SR Interchange Zone.
Forms a base (MMC reversal structure) and pushes back to recent highs near $71.
Breakout above $71 opens room for next supply zones between $72.50 - $74.00.
⚠️ Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Grab
Price breaks below SR Interchange and tests Main Zone for a deeper accumulation.
A wick or shakeout may happen before bullish continuation.
This trap zone could give the best R:R entry.
❌ Scenario 3 – Breakdown to Major Support
If both zones fail and bearish pressure sustains, price may revisit Major Support.
That would reset the bullish structure and require fresh MMC assessment.
🧠 MMC Logic at Work:
The curve break symbolizes the shift from supply dominance to a possible demand-led phase.
Minor structure breaks add fuel to trend shift and indicate participation from larger players.
Retracements are not weaknesses—they are refills for those who missed the move.
Smart money uses these zones and flips (SR interchanges) to hide in plain sight.
🎯 Key Takeaway for Traders:
This is a textbook MMC setup that combines:
Curve Breakout + Impulse
Zone Retest + Interchange Logic
Liquidity Engineering before Continuation
Traders should remain patient and observe reactions at each zone. Don’t chase—wait for the market to reveal its hand via MMC entry signals (break-of-structure, bullish engulfings, imbalance fills, etc.)
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 67.26
Target Level: 68.46
Stop Loss: 66.46
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL REACHED THE 6,900.00 SUPPORT LEVEL. WHAT'S NEXT?USOIL REACHED THE 6,900.00 SUPPORT LEVEL. WHAT'S NEXT?
As we told July 31, the price got reversed towards first support level of 6,900.00. Market participants are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting this week, expecting a significant output hike. Currently, the price sits slightly above the support level. Although, the asset trades above this level, considering the current weakness of the asset, further decline is expected. The 6,800.00 support level is the next target here.
U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.
Yesterday the natural gas storage report came out higher than expected. U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average to 195 Bcf from 171 Bcf the week before, the EIA reports. The storage increase was bigger than the 24 Bcf average for the week, and above the 36 Bcf estimate. However, the price rised on 2.35% afterwards, supported by increased volume, which indicates the strength of the level. The upward movement towards the 3.3000 level is highly expected.
Additionally, seasonals suggest us that current prices may become the lowest till the end of the year. Historically, since August the natural gas prices increase in anticipation of a new heating season and higher energy demand (pic2).
Oil prices rebound, maintain bullish attitude
💡Message Strategy
International oil prices continued their upward trend on Thursday, closing higher for the fourth consecutive day, as concerns about growing global supply tightness abounded. Brent crude for September delivery rose 0.4% to $73.51 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for September delivery rose 0.5% to $70.37 a barrel, while the more active Brent October contract rose 0.4% to $72.76 a barrel.
Recently, the market has focused on the statement of US President Trump, who demanded that Russia make "substantial progress" on the situation in Ukraine within 10-12 days, otherwise he would impose 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners, significantly bringing forward the previous 50-day deadline.
Inventory data suggests a continued struggle between supply and demand. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels in the week ending July 25, far exceeding expectations for a 1.3 million barrel drop. However, gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations for a 600,000 barrel drop.
📊Technical aspects
From a daily perspective, WTI crude oil prices have closed higher for four consecutive days since rebounding from the $66 level. It is currently running stably above the integer mark of $70 per barrel. The short-term moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD indicator remains above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is still strong.
From an hourly perspective, if the price breaks through the previous high of $70.50, it is expected to further rise to the $73.50-$75 range. Conversely, if it continues to fall below the $70 mark, it may trigger short-term profit-taking, and further support will focus on the $68.50 level. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:68.00-68.50,SL:67.50,Target:70.50-73.00
Natural Gas Bullish Reversal...Are the Lows in?U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average.
Consensus / forecast was 37Billion Cubic feet.
Despite a much higher build than expected Nat gas saw positive price action.
This appears to simply be a dead cat bounce before we go lower.
A death cross on the daily chart has occurred. This signal often results in a small bounce before going lower.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?USOUSD is falling towards the support levle which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 68.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 65.68
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support.
Take profit: 71.06
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
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PROP - Riding the Cycle? The Next Wave May Just Be Starting!Markets move in cycles; and PROP is no exception.
If you’ve been following our previous analyses, you’ll recognize the accumulation zone we highlighted earlier. Well, this updated chart adds another layer: the cyclical rhythm of price action.
🔁As shown, PROP has been moving in clearly defined waves, bouncing between key zones with consistency. The current cycle appears to have bottomed — once again — inside the lower bound, where strong demand continues to hold.
We’re now in the early phase of what could be a fresh bullish cycle. If the rhythm plays out as before, the path of least resistance could take us toward the median zone ($6.5 - $7.5) and possibly all the way back to the upper bound ($15 - $17) by late 2025 or early 2026.
🔍 Supporting Fundamentals
While the chart speaks volumes, the fundamentals back it up:
Energy demand is surging globally, fueled by AI, data centers, and electric infrastructure — all of which require massive power capacity.
Oil and gas remain essential in this transition phase, especially with renewable infrastructure still years away from matching base-load demand.
PROP (Prairie Operating Co.) controls 65,000 acres in the DJ Basin — one of the most productive oil regions in the U.S. With advanced drilling tech and low-cost operations, PROP is well-positioned to ride out volatility and capitalize on rising demand.
🎯 Key Zones to Watch
- Support: $2.5–$3
- Median target: $6.5–$7.5
- Macro resistance: $15–$17
📌 We’re not just seeing structure — we’re seeing rhythm, confluence, and timing align.
If this cycle continues to play out, PROP might just be preparing for its next major wave.
Are you ready to catch it?
🧠 Previous posts and technical breakdowns are attached for full context.
➡️ As always, speak with your financial advisor and do your own research before making any investment decisions.
📚 Always follow your trading plan => including entry, risk management, and trade execution.
Good luck!
All strategies are good, if managed properly.
~ Richard Nasr
Is the surge in crude oil bulls here a comeback?The news-driven support for crude oil's recent rally is almost exhausted, so we'll continue to adopt a buy-low-sell-high strategy today, using a small stop-loss to maximize profits.
Short at $71.20, with a stop-loss at $71.70 and a take-profit at $69.20. (For aggressive shorting, try shorting at $70.95).
The above strategy is Charlie's personal opinion and is for reference only. If you follow suit, please be cautious and use a stop-loss to protect your position. TVC:USOIL FOREXCOM:USOIL TRADU:USOIL TRADU:USOIL
USOIL IS GOING BULLISH. FOR HOW LONG?USOIL IS GOING BULLISH. FOR HOW LONG?
Brent has started this week with a strong bullish momentum and holds near 6-week high on supply fears. President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on Indian exports and penalize its Russian oil imports. In a parallel move, the US introduced its most extensive sanctions on Iran in seven years. The United States has even offered its oil to the world in exchange for Iranian and Russian oil, but there is evidence that the US production capacity is now at historic highs and is unlikely to grow in the near future.
However, technically oil shows us bearish divergence on RSI and bearish wedge here. The price may reverse towards 6,900.00 as a first target. EIA data showed US crude inventories jumped by 7.7 million barrels last week—the largest increase in six months and defying forecasts for a decline. Market participants are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting this week, expecting a significant output hike.
XNGUSD CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD TREND. FOR HOW LONG?XNGUSD CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD TREND. FOR HOW LONG?
Recent bearish impulse started at the beginning of this week may come to an end soon. Yesterday the U.S. Natural Gas Storage report came out. Numbers appeared to be lower than expected and lower than previous. (23b vs 28b vs 46b). This is bullish signal for the market participants. Minutes after the report came out, market reacted bullish, however, soon price went sideways.
Right now gas prices continue to decline. Still, the opportunity for short-sellers here is quite limited. Not so far below there is a level of 3.0000, form where I expect the price to rebound, supposedly to a 3.3000.
Crude Oil’s $70 Surge Still Faces 3-Year Channel ResistanceAlthough news points to a crude oil price surge, technical analysis indicates price cap risks remain within the borders of a 3-year descending channel.
Should a clear hold emerge above the $70 barrier, the bullish rebound in price action from the $64.40 zone, in line with the weekly RSI’s rebound off the neutral 50 zone, may extend toward the channel’s upper boundary at $72.40, $74.40, and $77 in more extreme scenarios.
A confirmed hold above the $77–78 zone may shift the primary trend away from bearish dominance and pave the way for longer-term bullish forecasts.
On the downside, if a price drop results in a clean break below the $64 barrier, downside risks may extend toward the mid-zone of the long-standing channel, with potential support levels at $63.20, $61.80, and $59.70, respectively.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT