04/08/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $119,809.82
Last weeks low: $111,917.76
Midpoint: $115,863.79
First net outflow for BTC in seven weeks (-$643m) following the FOMC data release and also month end. Yet again no change by the FED but the chances of Septembers FOMC giving us a rate cut has drastically increased, currently at a 78.5% chance of a 25Bps cut.
Month end usually gives us a pullback/sell-off as larger institutions window dress which often includes de-risking somewhat. We saw this last Thursday combined with the weekends typical lower volume has resulted in quite a significant correction for BTC. Altcoins have down the same as many assets reject from HTF resistance areas, the correction has been on the cards and isn't too worrying on the face of it.
What I would say is August seasonality is generally not a bullish month and so expecting price to rebound and extend the rally would go against historical trends. I could see more of a ranging environment taking place for several weeks before any next leg up is possible.
This week I would like to see where altcoins find support and establish a trading range where some rotational setups tend to present themselves.
