𝗘-𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $ES_F Daily. Bear Attempt #23337.5 ended up being exact fib level, but stimulus from #PBOC prevented big drop end of Jan. Attempt #2 looks set to begin
Es_f
SPX index and Fed Funds below Core CPI index analysisSPX index and Fed Funds below Core CPI index analysis
SPX500 make or Break zoneThe pullback here presents a nice low risk opportunity for shorts with stops above the spike highs. confluence of previous reference zones
SPX Year forward earnings divided by average Moody bonds yieldsSPX Year-ahead forward consensus expected earnings divided by average of Moody’s Aaa and Baa bond yields comparison with SPX index, SPX based on this metric is at present time not expensive, but relatively cheap. Same chart as but different source of data.
Financial Liquidity - US Real M2 Y/Grow minus US GDP Y/GrowFinancial Liquidity -> US Real M2 Y/Grow minus US GDP Y/Grow
SPX Year-ahead forward earnings divided by average Moody bonds SPX Year-ahead forward consensus expected earnings divided by average of Moody’s Aaa and Baa bond yields comparison with SPX index, SPX based on this metric is at present time not expensive, but relatively cheap.
S&P 500 PE and US 10 Year note PE for comparison... 1.2S&P 500 PE and US 10 Year note PE for comparison... 1.2 updated version minor improvements
The last two cycles, bonds were most of the time more expensive than stocks... the same thing happened in the 1940s in the US interested rate history, unfortunately, there is not historical data to be showed here about that particular time....
SP500 earnings yield greater than 10 Year US Bond Yield ... SP500 earnings yield greater than 10 Year US Bond Yield ...
Sum of overnight vs Intraday price movements in SPX indexAnalysis of the sum of overnight price variation vs Intraday price movements in SPX index
SPX index and US treasury yields below Core CPI index analysisSPX index and US treasury yields below Core CPI index analysis
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁: $SSEC Daily (or $SHCOMP). Hitting resistanceConfluence of resistance here. Worth watching to see if straight-line DCB continues and #PBOC liquidity pumps remain effective
Feb 10 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about tonight.
Points of Interest: Yesterday's value area.
Technical: Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Monday's overnight. Multiple tests of the $3340 level followed by a break to the upside. Now we are gapping substantially and market may be ahead of itself. Could we see a quick move down (to yesterday's value area or POC) in the morning to correct this? Then continuation?
Fundamental: Earnings continue to improve; Fed really supportive; jobs data positive; ISM manufacturing higher; market participants equally split between bullish and bearish; virus data (if correct) shows the growth in virus cases slowing; trade going in a positive direction; world economy growth has persisted; and so on.
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
Feb 9 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about tonight.
Points of Interest: $3340
Technical: Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Sunday's open. Multiple tests of the $3340 level with breaks potentially shaking off sellers.
Fundamental: Earnings continue to improve; Fed really supportive; jobs data positive; ISM manufacturing higher; market participants equally split between bullish and bearish; virus data (if correct) shows the growth in virus cases slowing; trade going in a positive direction; and so on.
Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
Diary | 3/7/20 | /ES SpreadDescription:
Justification:
- Directional Play: No, adds long delta to portfolio.
- Technical: Less than 20, 50 Moving Averages, VIX @ 16
- Fundamental: Long-term bullish; using every dip to neutralize delta's in portfolio.
If/Then:
- Take profit: @ 50% Max Profit
- Where will you hedge: $3050
Strategy Details
- Short and Long legs? $3040, $3000
- Short Leg Delta: 0.10
- Duration: 41 DTE
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TSLA Daily. Parabolic StillAssisting $NQ_F a bit today. Hit 300% fib extension in what remains an epic short squeeze. Safest to wait for parabola break to try short
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵: $SPY Monthly Rare to see a shooting star at upper bolli with divergence in play ... only 3 in the past 25 years 👀
emini SP500 #ES_F could be headed to 3200Here's a Fib analysis of a possible 'h' breakdown with a 127% extension move to 3200 if it can't get back into the channel.
𝗘-𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $ES_F Daily. Top looks to be in3337.50 (261.8% fib) clipped exactly on 1/22/2020. Possible fakeout following FOMC tomorrow with real move starting Friday and / or next week
ES_F emini SP500 bounces off FibIs there Fib trader in the house? #ES_F is bouncing of the 61.8 after it has broke below the price channel support.
Watching for new HOD for the Emini SP500 Futures - ES_FPoor high from market profile & volume profile need to be resolved, therefore, will be watching for new HOD.
S&P Futures (E-Mini) Key Fibonacci LevelsDrew up a series of key fib levels on multiple tf's.
Short-term, we are against the .618 and could see a small backtest Sun night. Mid-term, 3369 seems likely. Long-term, 3483 possible.
Potential S&P 500 ScenarioIt's been a while since I shared anything like this... most of the last few things were experimental historical models...
This is all based in Fibonacci, both price and time... this would have us peaking at about 3450 around late September 2020...
Though I don't have the count posted with it, it is based in Elliott Wave as well...
The EW concept here is an extended wave 1, with 3 being 0.786 of 1 and 5 being 0.786 of 3 - which leads to waves 3+5 equaling wave 1 (typical when 1 is extended)...
Just thought I'd share what I was looking at
