EURUSD 18-22 Mar 2024 W12 Weekly Analysis – US Rates/FOMCThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 18-22 Mar 2024 W12 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation / INT Pullback
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we are expecting price to target the Weak Swing Low.
Also after iBOS we expected a pullback which we are currently in.
3.
Price didn't reach a HP POI to continue down, but price seems to be reacting from the Liq on the left.
In order for me to consider that the INT Structure Pullback is over, i need to see at least a Bearish CHoCH. So will be watching the Daily Demand Zone for possible continuation up to target he HP POI (Daily/Weekly Supply) or a Bearish CHoCH for me to start looking for Shorts to target the Weak INT Low.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish / Continuation Phase
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback. Price had reached the INT Structure Demand zone and created a Bullish CHoCH which indicates that the INT Pullback maybe over and we are currently targeting the Weak INT High. after which price failed to target the Weak INT High.
Current price indicate that we will have a deep 4H INT Pullback to maybe the 4H/Daily Demand zones before any continuation.
Economic Events for the Week
Eur-usd
EURUSD 15 Mar 2024 W11 - Intraday Analysis - US Ind. ProductionThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish / Continuation Phase
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback. Price had reached the INT Structure Demand zone and created a Bullish CHoCH which indicates that the INT Pullback maybe over and we are currently targeting the Weak INT High. after which price failed to target the Weak INT High.
Current price indicate that we will have a deep 4H INT Pullback to maybe the 4H/Daily Demand zones before any continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
15m Swing turned which indicates that the 4H Internal Structure pullback is not over yet.
After a BOS we expect a pullback. Price didn't reach any HTF POI to initiate the pullback yet.
3.
After the Swing BOS, the pullback phase initiated after the Bullish iBOS.
Expectations is set for price to continue Bullish to Swing EQ / HP POI within the Swing Premium.
EURUSD Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.09300 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and now seems to be attempting to break it out. if we get further dips below the support we will look for a potential retrace of the trend towards more lows.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD 14 Mar 2024 W11 - Intraday Analysis - US PPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish / Continuation Phase
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback. Price had reached the INT Structure Demand zone and created a Bullish CHoCH which indicates that the INT Pullback maybe over and we are currently targeting the Weak INT High. after which price failed to target the Weak INT High.
Current price indicate that we will have a deep 4H INT Pullback to maybe the 4H/Daily Demand zones before any continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
15m Swing turned which indicates that the 4H Internal Structure pullback is not over yet.
After a BOS we expect a pullback. Price didn't reach any HTF POI to initiate the pullback yet.
3.
Price tapped into a previous 15m demand within a previous 4H demand that was partially mitigated.
15m Swing pullback could start at anytime but no yet confirmation as minimum as a bullish CHoCH.
EURUSD Short term sell signalEURUSD is getting rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the 14 month consolidation range for 4 straight sessions.
This is bearish enough on its own, but it is also the symmetrical level where the price got rejected on June 22nd 2023 to marginally under the 0.5 Fib.
The 1day RSI patterns between then and now are very similar.
Sell and target 1.08500 (0.5 Fib).
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EURUSD 13 Mar 2024 W11 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish / Continuation Phase
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback. Price had reached the INT Structure Demand zone and created a Bullish CHoCH which indicates that the INT Pullback maybe over and we are currently targeting the Weak INT High.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Swing Continuation
2.
15m Swing turned Bullish which indicates that the 4H Bullish INT Structure Pullback maybe over.
After BOS we expect a pullback, INT Structure high is formed after the bearish CHoCH.
Expectations is for price to continue bullish to facilitate the 4H Bullish INT Structure continuation phase.
EURUSD: Addressing Temporary WeaknessGreetings Traders,
Bullish Channel: We're currently observing a bullish channel, with the price nearing its ceiling.
Key Levels: Pay attention to the concise of this month's R1, which has been broken, and the VAH of volume profile. These levels are pivotal for longer-term long positions and suggest refraining from short-term shorts.
Temporary Weak Bearish Phase: Despite a temporary weak bearish phase, expectations point to a strong rise by the middle of next week.
LTF Analysis: On lower time frames, watch for deeper corrections, offering opportunities for short trades.
CPI News Impact: Stay updated on CPI News, as surprises here could alter market dynamics significantly.
Wishing you profitable trades ahead!
Warm regards,
Sell EURUSD Price RejectionThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent price rejection at a resistance level. This suggests a potential shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0925, positioned close to the rejected level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following levels:
1.0890: This represents a short-term support level that could see renewed selling pressure.
1.0870: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the recent price movement.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the resistance level at 1.0950. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly breaks above resistance.
Thank you
EURUSD Sell signal on the 0.618 FibEURUSD hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and got rejected.
This rejection can evolve into a short term bearish reversal, in a symmetric way as the November 29th 2023 did.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell if today's candle closes in red.
Targets:
1. 1.08500 (a little under the 0.382 Fib, as it happened on the December 8th 2023 low, which was contained on the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is already forming a peak reversal pattern just before hitting the 70.00 overbought level. A clear sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURUSD 12 Mar 2024 W11 - Intraday Analysis - US CPI Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish / Pullback Phase
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and as expected price reached the supply zone above the Swing EQ, also sweeping the Liq above the Supply zone which could initiate an INT Pullback for the Bullish INT Structure.
4.
Be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Swing Pullback Back Phase
2.
15m Swing continuing bearish after reaching the 4H Swing EQ.
After the Swing BOS we expect a Pullback.
There is a HP that the 4H swing pullback is over and we may continue the bearish Swing continuation. But be mindful that the 4H INT structure still bullish and this is just an Internal Pullback.
Bullish Swing BOS will indicate that we still in the 4H Bearish Swing deep pullback and we will target the Weak 4H INT High.
EURUSD: Short term sell inside the Channel Up.EURUSD has turned bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 62.360, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 55.342) but on the 4H chart it has started the bearish leg of the 1 month Channel Up. There is still time to sell and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level on a -0.85% decline from the top (TP = 1.08870), like the bearish wave after the Feb 22nd top.
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EURUSD 11 Mar 2024 W11 - Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and as expected price reached the supply zone above the Swing EQ, also sweeping the Liq above the Supply zone which could initiate an INT Pullback for the Bullish INT Structure.
CHoCH will be the first sign for the INT Structure Pullback.
4.
Be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Swing Pullback Back Phase
2.
15m Swing turned bearish after reaching the 4H Swing EQ.
After the Swing BOS we expect a Pullback.
There is a HP that the 4H swing pullback is over and we may continue the bearish Swing continuation. But be mindful that the 4H INT structure still bullish and this is just an Internal Pullback.
Bullish Swing BOS will indicate that we still in the 4H Bearish Swing deep pullback.
3.
Price had tapped into the 4H demand and initiated the 15m Swing Pullback Phase.
GBPUSD 10/3/24GU ran major highs on Friday, and we have seen that the markets what higher prices so we of course will follow this rally as we have from the major lows at 1.25400.
The ideal move for us here is the price to pullback into a lower areas and give us a nice long move out of said areas, we have seen a pretty big shift into our highs without pullback so this is what we are looking for, 50% pullback move lower to the demand that broke the highs and caused our HTF BOS and sweep of the same highs.
lets see if we are lucky enough to get this i am also looking for some low risk shorts from the liquid move that we have just seen take out the 4HR highs.
lets watch what price does and then act accordingly!
EURUSD 11-15 Mar 2024 W11 Weekly Analysis – US CPI WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11-15 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
(Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.
3.
With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from which resulted in a Bearish CHoCH.
Price swept the Liq above the Weekly demand and now targeting the Liq below the Weekly Supply for bearish continuation.
Expectation will be after reaching the weekly supply is to see price continuing bearish.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation / INT Pullback
2.
Within the Daily Bearish Swing we reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone and formed a bearish iBOS confirming the Swing Pullback is over and we are Pro Bearish Swing and starting the Continuation Phase targeting the Weak Swing Low.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expected a Pullback.
After mitigating the Daily Demand zone we formed a Bullish CHoCH which confirmed the INT Structure Pullback Phase started.
Expectations is set now for the INT Structure Pullback Phase to continue to the INT EQ up to the Daily/Weekly Supply. But be mindful that the Swing Bearish continuation can continue at any time.
There is no HP POI for Shorts up to the Daily/Weekly Supply Zones.
IMO Price could continue up to sweep LIQ from the INT Momentum Phase that leaded to the iBOS before we continue down.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and as expected price reached the supply zone above the Swing EQ, also sweeping the Liq above the Supply zone which could initiate an INT Pullback for the Bullish INT Structure.
CHoCH will be the first sign for the INT Structure Pullback.
4.
Be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD 8 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and the possible POI to maybe start the Pullback is the 4H Supply above the Swing EQ.
But be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Swing/Internal Pullback Back Phase
2.
Price continuing bullish with Bullish Swing BOS formation.
We had reached the 4H supply and we'd fully mitigated it which could provide bearish pressure to initiate the 15m Swing Pullback.
But be mindful that 15m Swing and 4H Internal Structures are solidly Bullish and we there is a HP we will continue up to mitigate the Daily/Weekly Supply.
Still on my Bullish Bias. Shorts will be in play once we have confirmed 15m Bearish BOS. Risky shorts will be with 15m Bearish iBOS.
3.
Swing Discount Zone and the last 15m/4H demand zone for potential reaction/longs when reached.
EURUSD 7 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - EU Rate / US JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
After iBOS we expect a pullback and the possible POI to maybe start the Pullback is the 4H Supply above the Swing EQ.
But be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
2.
After a Swing BOS we expect a Pullback.
INT structure is bullish and most probably will continue bullish after we broke the range.
Once internal structure turned bearish we will start the Swing Pullback Phase.
Expectation that we will continue bullish till the 4H Supply positioned above the 4H Swing EQ and maybe from there we will start the pullback.
Shorts are not considered until we reach a HP HTF POI.
3.
Swing Discount Zone and the last demand zone for potential reaction/longs when reached and depending on the situation.
EURUSD Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.09000 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area around 1.09000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Sell EUR/USD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a bearish channel pattern. This technical indicator often suggests a trend continuation, potentially leading to further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0850, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following levels:
1.0815: This represents the height of the channel, measured from the top trendline to the breakout point, projected downwards from the breakout point.
1.0796: This is achieved by adding the height of the channel to the breakout point. These targets act as potential support zones that could see selling pressure.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.0865. This helps limit potential losses if the price reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EURUSD 6 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis -US ADP / Powell day 1This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Note: Nothing changed since yesterday except 15m Sub INT turned Bullish aligning with 15m INT and Swing Bullish
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis - Out
15m Chart Analysis - In
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bullish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which turned bullish.
Sub INT structure aligned with INT and Swing to continue bullish. Still i expect price to target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market which means that the market players are waiting for a catalyst today from US ADP and Powell Testifies today and tomorrow.
EURUSD: 1D MA50 rejection, potential pullback to 1.07500EURUSD has turned marginally bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 55.444, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 39.548) but today made the second rejection on the 1D MA20 since February 22nd. Based on the 1D RSI uptrend that has started, the price action seems very much like the October 24th 2023 rejection, which pulled back near the 0.786 Fibonacci level. According to that, we expect a short-term correction at least for the pair (TP = 1.07500).
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EURUSD 5 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMI/PPI - US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 5 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Note: Nothing changed since yesterday except 15m Sub INT turned Bullish aligning with 15m INT and Swing Bullish
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Pullback Phase
2.
After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.
3.
After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
INT INT Bullish
INT Continuation Phase
2.
Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.
3.
As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which is currently bearish.
The Sub Internal Structure failed to continue bearish several times and there is a High Probability that we are currently targeting the Sub Structure High (Green Line) to continue the Bullish INT Structure and target the Weak INT High.
Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market.