LONG ON EUR/USDEUR/USD is currently at a major demand level after sweeping sell side liquidity.
The Dxy (Dollar) is overall bearish. I expect the dollar to fall and EUR/USD to rise to the previous high / supply level for over 200-300 pips.
News most likely will affect this pair in terms of volatility.
EURUSD
EURUSD The Week AheadKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.1716
Resistance Level 2: 1.1817
Resistance Level 3: 1.1885
Support Level 1: 1.1466
Support Level 2: 1.1390
Support Level 3: 1.1338
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NASDAQ at Key Turning Point 🔍Technical Context
After testing the 23,600–23,800 supply zone, price printed a strong bearish rejection with a weekly engulfing candle.
The RSI broke decisively below the midline, signaling a clear loss of momentum.
Price is now trading back within the weekly demand zone between 22,800 and 22,950.
If a pullback toward 23,200 occurs, it could offer a fresh short opportunity, with downside targets around 22,600.
🪙 COT Report – July 29
Non-Commercials (speculators):
Long: +8,581
Short: +4,355
Commercials (hedging):
Long: +4,955
Short: +8,556
The market remains net long, but commercials are increasingly hedging with shorts.
The current imbalance — 88.6% long vs 11.3% short — suggests excessive bullish positioning, raising the risk of a correction.
🗓️ Seasonality – August
August is historically strong for the NASDAQ:
+222 pts (10Y)
+400 pts (5Y)
+912 pts (2Y)
While the trend is clearly bullish seasonally, caution is warranted:
Tops are often formed during the first half of August, followed by more pronounced corrections in September.
📉 Operational Summary
Primary scenario:
Wait for a retest of the 23,200–23,250 area
Look for rejection signals → enter short
Target 1: 22,800
Target 2: 22,600
Alternatively:
If 22,800 breaks on a strong weekly close, deeper downside scenarios may unfold.
DeGRAM | EURUSD dropped below the support level📊 Technical Analysis
● EURUSD confirmed a double rejection below long-term resistance with two lower highs and broke channel support at 1.1567.
● Price is now trending within a descending channel toward 1.1363, with lower targets pointing into the 1.12–1.11 demand zone.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US Q2 GDP surprised to the upside, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish tone, while Eurozone CPI inflation cooled below forecast.
● Diverging central bank trajectories continue to widen yield differentials in favor of the dollar, sustaining bearish euro flows.
✨ Summary
Short bias confirmed below 1.1567. Break of 1.1450 opens path to 1.1363 ➜ 1.1200 zone. Watch for rallies to fade below trendline.
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EURUSD FORMED BEARISH PENNANT. THE PRICE IS READY TO DROP.EURUSD FORMED BEARISH PENNANT. THE PRICE IS READY TO DROP.
EURUSD has been trading sideways within the last day, showing lower highs and higher lows. Eventually, the price has formed the pennant chart pattern.
What is a pennant?
A pennant chart pattern is a short-term continuation pattern in technical analysis, resembling a small symmetrical triangle, formed after a strong price movement (flagpole). It consists of converging trendlines, indicating a brief consolidation before the trend resumes. Bullish pennants form after an uptrend, bearish pennants after a downtrend.
The price is expected to decline towards 1.14500 support level
The Fed aftermath. US dollar bulls enjoy the moment.The US dollar bulls went in hard after during and after the Fed's press conference. Can the momentum stay? Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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EURUSD REACHED THE TARGET.EURUSD REACHED THE TARGET.
EURUSD has reached the 1.14500 level and even broke it down. Currently the price consolidates slightly below this level. If the price forms a false breakout of 1.14500 level, this will mean the end of short-term decline in the pair. Stay cautious.
EURUSD breakdown alert – Will the drop accelerate?Hello traders, let’s take a look at how EURUSD is performing today!
Yesterday, EURUSD extended its downward slide after failing to sustain bullish momentum from the 1.1600 zone. The pair is now hovering around 1.1426.
The recent decline is largely attributed to the strength of the US dollar, which continues to benefit from a series of upbeat economic data – including robust job reports, strong consumer spending, and improving sentiment. All of these came in above expectations, pushing the dollar higher. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious stance, with no clear signals of policy changes – leaving the euro under persistent pressure.
From a technical standpoint, the short-term outlook suggests the beginning of a new bearish wave. Notably, price action is reacting to resistance from the nearby EMA 34 and EMA 89 levels. The break below the recent support zone has added fuel to the ongoing bearish momentum.
If the current support fails to hold, EURUSD could slip further toward the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 1.1305, and potentially as low as 1.1178 – the 1.618 extension level.
Looking ahead, traders should focus on potential pullback opportunities, targeting SELL entries around 1.1540–1.1580 – a confluence zone of technical interest. However, if price breaks above the 1.1600 threshold and holds, this bearish scenario may be invalidated.
What’s your outlook for EURUSD in the coming days? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Closed Longs, Now Selling Rallies on EURUSD ReversalAs mentioned in my previous posts, I’m been bullish on EURUSD in the medium term, targeting 1.20 and even beyond.
But no pair—especially not EURUSD, which tends to move more steadily and rationally—goes up in a straight line.
________________________________________
🔹 Last week, the pair stalled just below 1.18, and I decided to close my long trade with a +150 pip gain. That proved to be a wise call, as price dropped hard shortly after.
________________________________________
📉 What’s happening now?
• EURUSD has broken below the rising trendline
• More importantly, it’s broken below the neckline of a double top pattern
• Now trading around 1.1535
This opens the door for a deeper correction, and I expect we could see a test of the 1.1150–1.1100 zone by the end of summer.
________________________________________
📌 Trading Plan:
• I’m now in sell-the-rally mode
• Ideal short entry: around 1.1650, where we also get a favorable 1:3+ risk-reward
• Watch also for interim support around 1.1400
________________________________________
Conclusion:
The bigger picture remains bullish— but this correction looks healthy and isn’t done yet.
Selling rallies makes more sense now, until the structure tells us otherwise.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
EURUSD H4 | Bearish reversal off overlap resistanceThe Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the sell entry, which is an overlap resistance and could drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1452, which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.1536, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.1323, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD – German GDP boosts EUR, but USD still holds the reins Germany’s recently released GDP data exceeded expectations, acting as a catalyst for EURUSD to rebound after a steep decline. However, this upward move remains fragile, as the USD continues to dominate the market—especially with several key U.S. economic reports set to be released later this week.
On the chart, EURUSD has just bounced from the 1.15000 support zone, which has historically served as a strong floor. If the price holds above this level and breaks the downtrend line, the short-term target could move toward the 1.15700 resistance zone.
Still, the path ahead won’t be easy. The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. data, such as the jobs report and the Core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. If these figures come in strong, the USD could regain strength and put pressure back on EURUSD.
EUR/USD: A Fragile Rebound Within a Broader Bearish TrapEUR/USD has managed to stage a slight recovery after plunging through the key 1.1680 support — a level that had held firm for two weeks. The pair is now hovering just above 1.1500, but the bounce appears shallow and unconvincing. Volume remains low, momentum indicators offer little confirmation, and the broader structure still points to a prevailing downtrend.
On the H2 chart, price has rebounded from the 1.1505 area — a minor support formed during July's short-term consolidation. Yet, the EMA slope remains strongly negative, and RSI is struggling below the neutral 50 mark after exiting oversold territory. The structure continues to display classic lower highs and lower lows, with the 1.1585–1.1600 zone emerging as a potential resistance area for bears to re-enter.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar remains supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance, fueled by solid GDP, durable goods, and PCE data. In contrast, the Eurozone struggles with signs of stagnation, with both services and manufacturing PMIs deteriorating — most notably in Germany. This policy divergence continues to favor the greenback.
Unless bulls manage to decisively reclaim the 1.1600 zone with strong follow-through buying, any rebound risks being nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The downside target remains near 1.1460 – 1.1440 in the near term.
EURUSD: Buy or Sell?Dear friends!
On our 1D chart, after careful observation, we can see that a wedge pattern is forming. After EURUSD breaks out of the previous trend and completes the correction phase, a new downtrend is likely to be established.
Adam's target is to break above the 1.16000 support level and head towards the lower support level of 1.140000, which is where the pine attracts a large amount of buyers.
And you, do you think the price will go up or down? What is the target for your thinking?
EUR/USD Latest Update TodayHello everyone, what do you think about FX:EURUSD ?
EUR/USD previously broke the downward price channel, but failed to maintain the momentum, leading to a strong correction phase. Currently, the price is trading around 1.156 and testing key Fibonacci levels, with the 0.5 - 0.618 levels marked as potential reversal zones, as highlighted in the analysis.
With the current market sentiment, the strong recovery of the USD has been the main factor driving the EUR/USD movement in recent days. Positive economic data from the US has strengthened the US dollar, decreasing the appeal of gold and safe-haven assets like the EUR. Furthermore, expectations surrounding Fed policy decisions continue to add pressure on EUR/USD, with investors bracing for the possibility of the Fed maintaining high interest rates for a longer period.
For traders, it's clear that the bearish trend is in favor, as indicated by the EMA reversal. The Fibonacci levels 0.5 (1.164) and 0.618 (1.161) will be crucial zones, where reaction signals could open opportunities for SELL positions. The next target will be at Fib 1 and Fib 1.618.
That's my perspective and share, but what do you think about the current trend of EUR/USD? Leave your comments below this post!
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has broken out of the support level, which is an overlap support. A potential pullback to the sell entry followed by a reversal could lead the price to drop from this level to our take-profit.
Entry: 1.1449
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resitance level.
Stop loss: 1.1532
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resitance level.
Take profit: 1.1325
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support that is slghtly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD | Faces Continued Downside, Reversal Above 1.1745EURUSD | Faces Continued Downside Risk; Reversal Only Confirmed Above 1.1747
The price initiated a bearish trend from the resistance level at 1.1747 and continues to decline. As long as it remains below the pivot level at 1.1685, further downside pressure is expected, with potential targets at 1.1632 and 1.1559. A confirmed break below this zone would reinforce the more bearish momentum.
However, if the price reverses and moves back above the pivot line, it may first reach 1.1747 before resuming the downward trend again.
The bullish trend confirmation will start above 1.1747.
Key Levels:
• Pivot line: 1.1685
• Resistance: 1.1747, 1.1894.
• Support: 1.1632, 1.15993, 1.1559.
Pattern: Wedge Structure | Elliott Wave | Order Block PlayHere’s a powerful and professional description you can use when publishing this chart on TradingView:
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🔻 Day 4 | EUR/USD Analysis 🔻
Chart Type: 3H Timeframe
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📌 Chart Breakdown:
EUR/USD is respecting a textbook XABCD wedge pattern with clean Elliott Wave structure forming inside.
We’ve marked 5 key waves (1–5) completing within a falling wedge, aligning with a 50–60% retracement (Golden Zone) between point A and D.
🧠 Most traders miss the Golden Zone, but it’s often the clearest sign of upcoming trend continuation. Here, that continuation is bearish.
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✅ 3H Confluence Factors:
Wedge forming within a larger downtrend
Multiple Break of Structures (BOS) confirming bearish momentum
Price targeting 1.12956 zone (mapped order block)
Elliott Wave fractals confirmed within structure
Hidden supply zone respected at Wave 4
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📉 Expecting:
Retracement to supply → drop toward demand zone near 1.12956
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📎 Strategy Insight:
SMC + Elliott Wave + Multi-timeframe path tool mapping gives us high confluence to expect continuation into the demand area.
💬 Comment below your views —
Do you also trade Wedges with Elliott Wave confirmation?
#EURUSD #WedgePattern #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #OrderBlock #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #ForexIndia
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EURUSD Tests Key Support Ahead of FOMCFollowing the strong U.S. GDP data, EURUSD dropped to the 1.1450 support level. This area is significant, as it marks the convergence of the 23.6% retracement from the January–July move and the 50% retracement from the May–July move.
While the FOMC decision will ultimately shape the direction, from a technical perspective, a long position may offer a favorable risk/reward setup at current levels. A stop just below the key support would help manage downside risk.
EURUSD - 4-Hour Chart with Order Block Reversal StrategyThe EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows a significant bearish retracement approaching a well-defined order block zone, which represents a potential strong support area where major buyers may step in.
Price has experienced a clear downtrend following a break of structure (BOS) from the recent high near 1.18000 into the order block area around 1.13900 - 1.14150. This order block acts as a demand zone where smart money is anticipated to accumulate buy orders, making it a critical level to watch for potential market reversal.
The trading plan anticipates price will test this order block support and generate bullish reversal signals such as price rejection candlesticks or increased buying volume. Confirmation at this zone sets up a potential long trade aiming for a significant retracement to the previous weak high near 1.19200, targeting a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
Risk management is vital, placing stop losses just below the lower boundary of the order block to protect against false breakouts or further downside continuation.
This plan combines market structure analysis, smart money concepts of order blocks, and technical confirmation to capture a high-probability reversal trade. Traders should patiently wait for clear reversal signals before entry and monitor price action closely within the order block for optimal trade timing.
EUR-USD Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD keeps falling and
The pair is locally oversold so
As the pair is retesting the
Horizontal support level
Of 1.1468 we can enter a
Long trade with Take Profit
Of 1.1510 and Stop Loss
Of 1.1443
Buy!
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Ursulization = Bureaucracy > Democracy (a.k.a. The Glasgow Kiss)🤝💥 Ursulization – Bureaucracy Replaces Democracy (a.k.a. The Glasgow Kiss) 🇺🇸🇪🇺
📍Background:
The media spun it as a "15% tariff agreement"…
But in reality, this wasn’t diplomacy — it was a disguised capitulation.
And the stage? None other than Scotland, ancestral ground of Donald J. Trump.
So when Ursula von der Leyen came seeking a gentle diplomatic handshake…
What she received instead was the infamous Glasgow Kiss — sudden, sharp, and unmissable.
💥 What’s a Glasgow Kiss?
A British slang term for a violent headbutt to the face —
No grace. No warning. Just raw force.
💬 The Real Story:
Ursula von der Leyen — unelected, unaccountable —
signed off on $1.4 trillion in U.S.-bound capital flows:
💸 $750B to buy American energy
🛠 $600B in U.S. infrastructure, defense & industry
All to sidestep 50% tariffs the Trump team had ready to roll.
But here's the kicker:
She wasn’t acting on behalf of European citizens.
She was speaking for the bureaucracy, not the people.
🔥 Welcome to Ursulization:
Where democracy is sidelined by unelected power.
Where negotiations happen in silence.
Where scandals like PfizerGate get buried while the euro breaks down.
📉 EUR/USD just lost key support at 1.14776 —
The chart shows t he cost of surrender.
💉 PfizerGate Reminder:
Ursula already faced heat for secretive vaccine contracts with Pfizer.
Now, she’s handing over Europe’s industrial backbone —
To Trump. In Scotland. With no public mandate.
📌 Conclusion:
Trump didn’t compromise — he collided.
Europe didn’t resist — it surrendered.
This wasn’t diplomacy.
It was a Glasgow Kiss — a collision between legitimacy and bureaucratic power.
👑 One elected by the people (Trump). One not elected at all (Woke agenda style Ursula).
💰 One walks away with trillions (Trump). The other, with silence (Ursula 'Von der Pfizinen never electenen'').
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
ps. Till we can bring Democracy and Europe back.
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈