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Fibonacci

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025 Chart Context: Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools: 1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom) 2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions** * Key Levels and Zones: * **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100 * **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600 * **Resistance & TP Zones:** * TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%) * TP2: **6,840** (-27%) * TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence) Technical Observations: * SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory. * The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits. * The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally. * The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels. Fundamental Context: * US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky. * The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations. * Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**. * However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks). Narrative Bias & Scenarios: **Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)** * If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to: * 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone * 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone * These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond. * **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move. * **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins. **Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)** * If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft: * SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128) * Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840) * Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)** * **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities. * **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation. Indicators Used: * 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions) * Trendlines (macro and local) * Confluence mapping Philosophical/Narrative Layer: This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing? Bias & Strategy Implication: Bias: Bullish with caution * Strategy: * Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries * Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds * Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits Related Reference Charts: * BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias: * TOTAL:Bullish Bias *TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias: * US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
TVC:SPXLong
by BitonGroup
Pinex-Capital Trade IdeaThe chart shows a bullish daily structure with a higher volume range and positive momentum. The first long idea is based on a pullback to the value area high or the 0.5 Fibonacci zone around 0.6498. Should the market test this area and show buyers there, this would be an opportunity for a long entry with a target in the area of the recent high at 0.6538. The stop can be placed slightly below the 0.618 level at 0.6484. A second long opportunity arises on a breakout above the recent high at 0.6538. If the price breaks above this zone with volume and stabilizes there, a procyclical long can be entered with a target towards 0.6560+ (next psychological level). The stop should be placed just below the breakout level.
Long
by jakubNQ
Pinex-Capital Trade IdeaThe second chart shows a bullish daily structure with a higher volume range and positive momentum. The first long idea is based on a pullback to the value area high or the 0.5 Fibonacci zone around 0.6498. Should the market test this area and show buyers there, this would be an opportunity for a long entry with a target in the area of the recent high at 0.6538. The stop can be placed slightly below the 0.618 level at 0.6484. A second long opportunity arises on a breakout above the recent high at 0.6538. If the price breaks above this zone with volume and stabilizes there, a procyclical long can be entered with a target towards 0.6560+ (next psychological level). The stop should be placed just below the breakout level.
Long
by jakubNQ
Pines-Capital Trade IdeaThe second chart shows a bullish daily structure with a higher volume range and positive momentum. The first long idea is based on a pullback to the value area high or the 0.5 Fibonacci zone around 0.6498. Should the market test this area and show buyers there, this would be an opportunity for a long entry with a target in the area of the recent high at 0.6538. The stop can be placed slightly below the 0.618 level at 0.6484. A second long opportunity arises on a breakout above the recent high at 0.6538. If the price breaks above this zone with volume and stabilizes there, a procyclical long can be entered with a target towards 0.6560+ (next psychological level). The stop should be placed just below the breakout level.
Long
by jakubNQ
Pines-Capital Trade IdeaThe chart shows a bullish daily structure with a higher volume range and positive momentum. The first long idea is based on a pullback to the value area high or the 0.5 Fibonacci zone around 0.6498. Should the market test this area and show buyers there, this would be an opportunity for a long entry with a target in the area of the recent high at 0.6538. The stop can be placed slightly below the 0.618 level at 0.6484. A second long opportunity arises on a breakout above the recent high at 0.6538. If the price breaks above this zone with volume and stabilizes there, a procyclical long can be entered with a target towards 0.6560+ (next psychological level). The stop should be placed just below the breakout level.
Long
by jakubNQ
EUR/USD | Distribution in Play – Short Bias Active After completing a textbook Wave 5, price entered a premium supply zone and executed a clean liquidity sweep. 🔹 Confirmed Change of Character (ChoCh) signals the shift from bullish to bearish order flow. 🔹 Price is respecting the SMC structure:   📍 Liquidity grab   📍 Mitigation of bearish order block   📍 Distribution phase after impulsive rally 📉 Short-Term Bias: Bearish 🎯 Targeting the demand zone below near 1.1275–1.1292, where we may expect accumulation to begin again. 📌 Plan: 1. Short entries valid below 1.1439 supply. 2. Monitoring reaction at the blue zone for possible reversal next week. ⚙️ Strategy used: SMC + Wyckoff Distribution + Elliott Wave (Top-down)
Short
by Greenfireforex
Gold to the top📊Technical Analysis for: 🕒 Timeframe: 📈 General Trend: 🔍 Analysis Summary: We are currently observing a rebound from the 3390 - 3400 levels. • Major Support Level: • Resistance Level: • Technical Indicators: We note that this correction is due to divergence. 🎯 Suggested Entry and Exit Points: ✅ Entry: On a breakout/rebound from ⛔ Stop Loss: 🎯 Targets: • First Target: • Second Target: 📌 Recommendation: – It is recommended to wait for confirmation of the technical signal before making a decision. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is not considered financial advice or a direct buy or sell recommendation. Do your own research and carefully consider risk management before making any decisions. 📥 Do you agree with this analysis? Share your opinion in the comments! 🔁 Follow me for daily analysis.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Hussein_Abd-Alamer
Is the dollar's a trend or temporary?📊Technical Analysis for: 🕒 Timeframe: 📈 General Trend: 🔍 Analysis Summary: We are currently observing a rebound from the 98.400 level. • Major Support Level: • Resistance Level: • Technical Indicators: We note that this correction is due to divergence. 🎯 Suggested Entry and Exit Points: ✅ Entry: Upon a breakout/rebound from ⛔ Stop Loss: 🎯 Targets: • First Target: • Second Target: 📌 Recommendation: – It is recommended to wait for confirmation of the technical signal before making a decision. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is not considered financial advice or a direct buy or sell recommendation. Do your own research and carefully consider risk management before making any decisions. 📥 Do you agree with this analysis? Share your opinion in the comments! 🔁 Follow me for daily analysis. ICEUS:DX1! ICEUS:DX1!
TVC:DXYShort
by Hussein_Abd-Alamer
Delta Air Lines: Potential BreakoutDelta Air Lines has squeezed into a tight range, and some traders may think it’s breaking out. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since May 13. DAL closed above that falling trend line last Friday, which could mean the resistance has been overcome. The move resulted in a bullish outside week, immediately after a bullish inside week. That’s potentially consistent with prices consolidating before moving again. Bollinger Band Width compression in the lower study may substantiate that view. (Notice the potential volatility squeeze taking shape.) Next, the airline held a 50 percent retracement of its surge between April 30 and May 12. Does that suggest movement is pointing higher? Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has stayed above the 21-day EMA. That may also be consistent with a short-term uptrend. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:DAL
by TradeStation
US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025 📊 Chart Context Current Yield: \~4.50% Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones. 📉 Key Technical Observations Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise) TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance. TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone. TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection) Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession) Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand. Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6% Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8% Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6% Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways): Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation. Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone. Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone. These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events. Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases: Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence. Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones. After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure. These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent. Macro & Fundamental Context: 1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025. 2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower. 3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets. 4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up. Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out): ↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3) * Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens. * Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity. * Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto. * Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts. ↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4): * Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal. * Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles. * DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins. * Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities. Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone): * Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges. * Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3. * Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation. Related Reference Charts TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly
TVC:US10YLong
by BitonGroup