HTF - GOLD - HAS LOST ITS SHINE?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular precious metal "GOLD / XAU" could look like.
For this I have carried out a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month - week - day) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally, all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that nobody can predict the future, and that's exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> I have explained in detail which levels are RELEVANT in the following pages. .
table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
= Dayly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "XAU/USD" formed a double top between 2020-2022, a strong sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off paused in October this year to test the strength of it.
> With a subsequent bullish monthly candle, many retail investors now feel on the safe side that new highs will be reached.
> Here I do not want to take away the joy, but the big picture does not suggest anything like that.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) on the higher timeframes, the following sell-off in gold is "indirectly" confirmed.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.)
GOLD SAFE HARBOUR .
If you follow popular wisdom, GOLD is classified as a safe and reliable haven.
SPEAKING LIKE ...
> "All that glitters is not gold."
> "Talk is silver, silence is gold."
> "Much gold, much future."
That, the precious metal gold got such a high value awarded - HAD - its reasons.
> Inflation protection and security - are definitely the two most associated words with this precious metal.
Unfortunately, at the latest, since the year 2021, this no longer seems to apply.
> If one compares the loss of inflation and the gain in value of gold, a significant gap can be seen, at which there can no longer be any talk of "inflation compensation".
> Gold will therefore no longer live up to its reputation and a rethinking of its value will have to take place in the future.
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel plotted on the chart formed in March|2007 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> Price is in the area below the mean line and had last touched the channel in 2018.
> September|2020 the price ran into the mid-line but was not strong enough. This becomes very clear when looking at the moving away middle line despite the "double top".
> The trend arc is another resistance, which should be taken into account for a future downward movement.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at two zones in the chart.
> The "SUPPLY" zone is VERY STRONG because it is a RBD (Rally Base Drop).
> The "DEMAND" zone is VERY WEAK, as it is a DBD (Drop-Base-Drop).
> If we get another rise in the DXY, the drawn "DEMAND" zone will break and the sell-off will continue.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been proved in past moves (last decades) .
> Should the price rise even further, FIB (1) will serve as a Strong Resistance Zone, although the "FIB Zone = 0.75-0.88 - is the Strongest Resistance. (1)
> If the sell-off continues, FIB (2) cannot do much in the monthly chart, but if necessary there will be a reaction on the "smaller" time levels.
> The FIB (3) = 1.618 level, will resemble a large magnet and in combination with the FIB (4), will trigger a large resistance reaction in the market.
Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance / support, of which we have three.
> HIGH | 08/20 - Already showed a reaction (double top).
> HIGH | 09/11 - Point of Control
> LOW | 03/21 - Broken and recaptured
Points and levels of interest are in front of us, which have played a strong role for the market since 2011 .
> The most significant resistance, represents the plotted - POI (1800 USD), which is still contested at the time of this analysis.
> The other POIs have non-negligible resistance and support characteristics and should be kept in mind.
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture
XAU - Trend lines
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Market Structure Break
XAU - Fibonacci
XAU - POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
In addition to the already mentioned trend channel, now three more become visible, which may have escaped the one or the other.
> The "Purple" trend channel formed at the same time as its big brother (monthly channel) and thus represents a major significance for the market.
We are at the middle line of the channel and the market seems to have used it as support.
> The "Turquoise" trend channel accompanies us since the last high and has a big say with its many interactions.
My guess is that its resistance line will decide whether the sell-off will continue or be broken with confirmation.
> The "Earth-colored" trend channel is a small sideways accumulation and accompanies us in this area.
Currently, the price has fought its way back into the channel, confirmed it and is now targeting the top of the sideways channel.
> The "Orange colored" trend line , has been respected since 2018, 07|2022 broken.
The price suggests that the trend line is approaching for a final retest.
The additional "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched.
As additional Fibonacci additions, we have:
> The 0.88 FIB (1), combined with the levels from the FIB (2). This represents with the 0.88 levels from FIB (2) - two very relevant resistance ranges.
> FIB (3) is only valid if the price does not rise further and therefore the input values do not change. Should this be the case, the 0.786 + 0.88 area is the most important to watch out for.
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture
XAU - Overall picture + Month
XAU - Trend Channels + Trend Lines
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES
XAU - Fibonacci
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
3rd DAY – Time frame
SUMMARY
The chart shows a falling triangle which has been broken .
> As a result, the price has confirmed this break, with a close at the break point.
> At this time level, there will be a sell-off, especially if the DXY rises.
To give a little comment on the "Supply & Demand" zones:
> The upper two "SUPPLY" zones are definitely very strong. 1800 + 1980.
> The bottom "DEMAND" zone is very strong, as it is a DBR (Drop-Base-Rally) zone. (ca. 1640 - ca. 1615)
> The "DEMAND" zones in between are incidental, will trigger small reactions on the lower time frames, but nothing significant. (ca. 1760 - ca. 1660)
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture + Month + Week
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Trend Lines
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The central banks, themselves, are behind the gold price manipulation. What should you get out of it?"
Run this question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely.
> Another sell-off or a positive gold price for now?
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a weak GOLD price .
> If you look at the area between 1,950 USD - 1,840 USD, it almost seems like an arm guarding the upper levels.
> To bring down this defense, I think, needs more momentum than what we have and are getting right now. (Christmas, New Year, Chinese New Year)
For this reason, I expect a weak gold rate and a strong USD, and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT .
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
