#011: Long Investment Opportunity on GBP/CAD
After weeks of compression, GBP/CAD is showing clear signs of institutional accumulation. The price recently released a false bearish breakout below 1.8400, followed by a reabsorption and spike with decreasing volumes: a typical "retail flush" structure.
Added to this are clear macro elements:
The pound is supported by a still-tight monetary policy, with the BoE maintaining a hawkish tone.
The Canadian dollar is suffering from declining oil expectations and the risk of a more rapid rate cut by the BoE.
📉 What happened?
The market attempted to "clear" the 1.838–1.840 zone with a rapid, unfollow-through bearish move. This behavior, combined with the Open Interest reading and retail positioning, suggests an institutional entry intention in the area between 1.8375 and 1.8365.
📈 Positioning
A Buy Limit was placed at 1.83740, with a wide Stop Loss at 1.82890, outside any visible hunting zone, and a Take Profit at 1.86280, where profit-taking has historically occurred on similar patterns.
🎯 Main motivations for long
Accumulation visible with stop-hunt below support at 1.8400
Net long GBP futures position
Retail short above 70%, a typical reversal signal
No significant volume obstacles until 1.8620
Psychological resistance already tested (1.846, 1.850)
⏳ Estimated timeframe
The setup could develop over several days, with the first movement as early as today (Friday) and completion by mid-next week. The intention is to follow the banking flow, without anticipating or reacting to emotional price movements.
