EURUSD at Make-or-Break Zone: Time to Short?EURUSD – Key Data Out Today, Short Setup Confirmed?
Today, several important economic indexes were released for both the Euro(EUR) and the Dollar(USD) . Let’s break them down in a simple way:
Eurozone PMI Data: Mixed to Weak
France:
Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 (slightly lower than forecast)
Services PMI : 49.7 (flat, but below 50 = contraction)
Germany:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 (weaker than expected)
Services PMI : 50.1(slightly expansionary)
Eurozone Overall:
Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (still below 50)
Services PMI : 51.2 (slightly stronger than forecast)
ECB left the Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 2.15% , which was widely expected.
U.S. Data( TVC:DXY ): Strong and Surprising
Unemployment Claims: 217K (better than expected 227K)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (below forecast of 52.7 – a negative surprise)
Services PMI: 55.2 (well above forecast and previous – bullish for USD)
Interpretation :
The Eurozone's growth remains sluggish, especially in France and Germany.
Despite a drop in U.S. manufacturing, the services sector remains strong, and unemployment data confirms labor market resilience.
This mixed picture slightly tilts the balance in favor of the U.S. dollar, especially as the ECB remains on hold while the Fed may still consider being restrictive.
Bias: Short EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD )
Fundamentals support a Short position in EURUSD, in line with the current technical setup.
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 4-hour time frame to find the best Short position .
EURUSD is currently trading in an Ascending Channel and at a Heavy Resistance zone($1.1845-$1.1602) .
Also, in terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD is completing a microwave 5 of the main wave 5 .
One of the most important supports ahead for EURUSD could be the 100_SMA(4-hour TF) .
If the currently 4-hour candlestick forms a Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern , it is a better sign for EURUSD to fall .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect EURUSD to decline to at least $1.169 AFTER breaking the lower line of the ascending channel .
Second Target: Support zone($1.1642-$1.158) and Monthly Pivot Point.
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $1.1850
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Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
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