Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3691
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3738
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3635
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Forex
EURUSD - SellEntered this earlier on the 1min TF
Target will be the first Order Block which is 21:RR.
The reason I am targeting here is the 4H order flow is still bullish. So if we can hit the target I close 50% of the position and let the rest ride and manage accordingly to price.
Lets see how it plays out
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?GBP/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3590
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.3629
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.3535
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop for the Fiber?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1452
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.1495
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1375
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUD-USD Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD went up and hit
A horizontal resistance level
Of 0.6541 and as the level
Is strong we will be expecting
A local pullback and a
Bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Market next move 🔍 Original Interpretation:
Support Zone: The red rectangle suggests a support level between ~102,800 and ~103,300.
Bullish Bias: The blue arrow anticipates a bounce from this zone, potentially forming a higher low before continuing upward.
Bearish Bias: The red arrow marks a potential resistance, predicting rejection and a move lower if the bullish breakout fails.
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⚠️ Disruptive Analysis:
1. False Support Breakout Risk:
A false breakdown beneath the support zone could trigger panic selling before a rapid recovery (fakeout).
Traders might place stop-losses just below the box — a perfect target for market makers before price reverses.
2. Volume Deception:
Volume increased during the sell-off but did not show strong absorption by buyers (green volume wasn't dominant).
This suggests sellers still dominate and a continuation lower could occur before any bounce.
3. Lower Highs Formation:
The last few green candles failed to break the previous highs, indicating weaker buying strength.
Price may form a lower high, hinting at a short-term bearish trend.
4. Macro Trend Consideration:
If this is just a retracement within a larger downtrend, the bounce could be short-lived.
Broader market sentiment or macro news could push BTC toward 100,000 support or lower.
Market next move Disruptive Bearish Scenarios:
1. Support Area Breakdown
The recent strong bearish candle with high volume shows aggressive selling pressure.
If the price fails to hold above the support area and closes below it, especially on high volume, it could invalidate the bullish recovery.
> Bearish Alternative: Price breaks below 103,000, retests it as resistance (bearish flip), and continues down toward 101,000–100,000.
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2. Lower High Trap
The projected bounce could form a lower high below the 106,000 resistance, creating a classic bearish structure.
> Disruption Path: After a minor recovery toward 104,500–105,000, sellers regain control, and BTC resumes the downtrend.
---
3. Fake Support Bounce
The support area could create a fake-out bounce, tricking long traders before a sharper reversal.
The move up may lack follow-through due to diminishing bullish volume.
EURJPY: Well supported Channel Up aiming for 166.700.EURJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.535, MACD = 0.340, ADX = 24.438) and is staging right now a rebound on the 1D MA50. This comes only days after the 1D MA200 HL rebound tight at the bottom of the Channel Up. This is a great opportunity to buy and aim for the R1 level (TP = 166.700).
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Market next move Disruption Points:
1. Bullish Accumulation Underway
The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing.
> Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620.
---
2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap)
The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction.
> Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward.
---
3. Divergence Risk
If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse.
> Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend.
---
4. Fundamental Wildcard
The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar.
If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
Market next target 🧨 Disruption Points:
1. Bullish Accumulation Underway
The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing.
> Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620.
---
2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap)
The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction.
> Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward.
---
3. Divergence Risk
If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse.
> Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend.
---
4. Fundamental Wildcard
The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar.
If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
Market next target 🧨 Disruption Points:
1. Overbought Condition / RSI Divergence
Even though the price is surging (+3.30%), there could be an overbought condition forming.
If RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) diverge, it might signal weakness in bullish momentum.
> Disruptive idea: Price may fake the breakout (blue arrow) and then sharply reverse, trapping late buyers.
---
2. False Breakout Trap
The red-box area could be a liquidity zone where smart money might induce a fake breakout before dumping.
> Alternative path: Price breaks above temporarily (as in blue path), but then reverses violently back into the range, forming a “bull trap.”
---
3. Volume Anomaly
The volume appears to be decreasing on recent bullish candles after the initial spike.
This suggests that the uptrend may be losing strength, making the yellow arrow scenario less likely.
> Contrary outlook: Lack of volume confirmation could mean a sideways consolidation or reversal is more probable.
---
4. News/Event Risk (Fundamental Disruption)
The chart shows an upcoming economic event (U.S. flag icon), possibly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), interest rate news, or CPI.
These events could cause extreme volatility and invalidate all technical patterns.
Market next move 🧨 Disruption Points:
1. Overbought Condition / RSI Divergence
Even though the price is surging (+3.30%), there could be an overbought condition forming.
If RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) diverge, it might signal weakness in bullish momentum.
> Disruptive idea: Price may fake the breakout (blue arrow) and then sharply reverse, trapping late buyers.
---
2. False Breakout Trap
The red-box area could be a liquidity zone where smart money might induce a fake breakout before dumping.
> Alternative path: Price breaks above temporarily (as in blue path), but then reverses violently back into the range, forming a “bull trap.”
---
3. Volume Anomaly
The volume appears to be decreasing on recent bullish candles after the initial spike.
This suggests that the uptrend may be losing strength, making the yellow arrow scenario less likely.
> Contrary outlook: Lack of volume confirmation could mean a sideways consolidation or reversal is more probable.
Gold Price Analysis May 6D1 Frame
It is not surprising that the price has increased again. If this momentum continues, the 3408 level can be reached today.
H1 Frame
The uptrend is clear, heading towards the area above 3400.
3363 is a good support zone, suitable for BUY orders in the Asia - Europe session.
3344 is an important level. If broken, the short-term uptrend will be broken and we need to wait for a new wave.
Resistance to watch
3382 is the nearest resistance zone in today's session.
3397 is an area prone to false breaks (old peaks). The price may react slightly here before reaching the 3408 level.
Trading strategy in US sessionGold price in the short term of the US session. The pulling of the h1 candle's wick creates an important liquidity zone of 3373. When h1 closes above this zone, it confirms that the US session will be a bullish session and can reach 3398 at the end of the session. If it closes below 3373, the BUY zone will be noticed at the support reaction in the European session around 3362.
EURUSD short term analysis in US sessionEURUSD is trading in the price range of 1.161 and 1.158. It is unlikely that there will be a breakout through this price range today. If the pair retreats slightly to 1.156, it is considered a good buy signal. Let's wait and see what the next short-term developments of EURUSD are.
I will send you the long term analysis of the pair tomorrow.
UCAD Bears Ready to Break 2 Month Long Falling Support??OANDA:USDCAD has been supported by a Falling Support Trend line since August 14th and here soon Price could potentially give us a Bearish Break to that Trend line!
Once a Breakout is validated, we could look for a Retest Set-Up for some Short Opportunities to take Price down to the Support Zone created by the August and September 2024 Lows.
An interesting fact to point out is if you observe the reaction of Price when it tests the Falling Support, we can see Price arc and the following reactions arc smaller, suggesting Bulls are losing strength on the push off of the Falling Support!
Price Action is being heavily driven by Fundamentals in the markets this week:
-USD-
ADP Non-Farm Employment - Previous 60K / Forecast 111K / Actual 37K
ISM Services PMI - Previous 51.6 / Forecast 52 / Actual 49.9
ISM Manufacturing PMI - Previous 48.7 / Forecast 49.3 / Actual 48.5
ISM Manufacturing Prices - Previous 69.8 / Forecast 70.2 / Actual 48.5
Unemployment Claims - Previous 239K / Forecast 236K / Actual 247K
*Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate are to be released tomorrow
-CAD-
BOC held Interest Rates @ 2.75%
Ivey PMI - Previous 47.9 / Forecast 48.3 / Actual 48.9
*Employment Change and Unemployment are to be released tomorrow
With BOC holding Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve possibly looking to cut rates because of a "softening labor market", this could fuel CAD to overcome the pair and put Bears in control to pull Prices lower!
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Gold Hits All Targets with 500+ Pips – Eyes Now on $3420By examining the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after our previous analysis, the price moved exactly as expected and successfully hit all four targets — $3367, $3380, $3391, and $3400 — reaching as high as $3403 and delivering over 500 pips of return.
After sweeping the liquidity above $3400, the price corrected back to around $3370. Currently, gold is trading around $3380. If the price can hold above the $3370 level, we can expect a continuation of the bullish move toward the $3420 area.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EURUSD Long Setup Above 1.14544 – Trendline in FocusFX:EURUSD is showing a potential long setup if price breaks above the 1.14544 level . The trade's potential is influenced by an ascending trendline around 1.14710 . If the market hesitates at this level, it may be wise to close the position or move the stop loss to breakeven .
XAU/USD..4h chart Pattern.Here’s a summary of My Gold (XAU/USD or XAU/INR?) trade setup:
📈 Trade Idea (Long Position in Gold)
Entry: 3394
Target: 3500
Stop Loss: Not specified (⚠️ Risk undefined)
Potential Gain: +106 points
Percentage Gain: +3.12%
🧮 Trade Considerations:
Reward: 3500 − 3394 = +106
Risk: ⚠️ Not defined → Add a stop loss to calculate risk/reward properly.
If you add a stop loss, I can calculate the exact risk/reward ratio.
Would you like help setting an appropriate stop loss based on technical levels (e.g., recent support, moving average)? Or should I assume one for analysis?
Market next move 🔍 Bearish Disruption Perspective
1. Supply Zone Rejection
The red box marks a strong resistance zone. Current price action shows rejection at that level (long upper wicks).
This signals that sellers are defending this zone, increasing the likelihood of a false breakout.
2. Exhaustion After Strong Rally
The massive green candle just before the resistance may have exhausted short-term buying power.
Without a clear consolidation or volume surge, the price could reverse or retrace to gather strength.
3. Volume Discrepancy
Volume spikes with price often suggest conviction. However, this chart shows moderate volume on the test of resistance—not enough to confirm breakout strength.
4. Bearish Candlestick Pattern
The small red candle following the green surge could be forming a bearish engulfing or rejection candle, depending on the close.
Market next move 🔍 Disruptive Technical Perspective
1. Overextension After Rally
The current sharp upward move may be overextended.
Lack of consolidation suggests the rally may be unsustainable without a pullback to test support.
2. Volume Divergence
While price is rising, the volume bar at the most recent candle is not increasing proportionally.
This signals weakening momentum, which often precedes a reversal or consolidation.
3. Unconfirmed Breakout
The chart doesn't clearly show a confirmed breakout above a significant resistance zone.
This could indicate a potential fakeout rather than a true breakout.
4. Potential Double Top Formation Risk
If price stalls near current levels and pulls back, a double top pattern might form—often a bearish reversal signal.
A drop back below $3,380 could trigger heavy selling.
Market next move 🔍 Disruptive Counter-Analysis
1. False Breakout Risk
The current breakout could be a bull trap. Price may break above the resistance level temporarily before reversing sharply.
Volume Analysis: The volume isn't significantly higher at the breakout candle, which may suggest a lack of strong momentum or institutional participation.
2. Resistance Zone Ahead
The 1.14500 to 1.15000 range is historically a supply zone, where sellers may aggressively enter the market.
This makes any upside move vulnerable to a reversal near that zone.
3. Macroeconomic Risk
A red-circled economic event icon appears on the chart (likely an ECB or Fed-related release). This adds uncertainty—news can invalidate technical patterns.
If the event is bearish for the euro (e.g., weak data or dovish ECB comments), the pair could reverse sharply.
4. Overbought Short-Term
A series of green candles without significant pullback suggests short-term overbought conditions.
RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) may confirm this. A correction to the previous base is possible.
XAU/USD.2h chart pattern..From your XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) 2-hour chart, im showing a bullish channel breakout with a clearly marked target level.
📊 Observations:
The chart displays an ascending channel with price breaking above a key resistance zone (~3412).
The projected target is explicitly marked at:
🎯 3,500.641
This is likely derived from a measured move using the height of the previous consolidation range added to the breakout point.
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🔍 Summary:
Breakout Zone: ~3,412
Target Zone: 3,500.641
Support Zones:
Near-term: 3,370 – 3,390
Channel bottom: ~3,337
Key invalidation: Below 3,320
Would you like help with setting a stop-loss or trailing exit plan to lock in profits as price moves?