Market Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tensions & Fed Rumors Gold 17/07 – Market Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tensions & Fed Rumors
🌍 Macro Sentiment: Uncertainty Continues
The global gold market opened Thursday with high volatility following headlines that former U.S. President Donald Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Though Trump later denied the claim, the initial rumor spiked fear in financial markets.
At the same time:
🇮🇱 Israel launched airstrikes on Syria, escalating regional tensions.
🇪🇺 The EU proposed new tariffs on U.S. imports, increasing global economic friction.
🏦 Inflation concerns persist as BlackRock warns about delayed price pressures from earlier tariff hikes.
📉 These factors have turned gold into a temporary safe haven, but investors should remain cautious as the market is still undecided about direction.
🔎 Technical Outlook – Key Patterns to Watch
The H1 chart reveals price action respecting a wide consolidation range with visible liquidity sweeps on both ends. The market is forming a clean structure of lower highs, hinting at bearish bias unless bulls reclaim upper resistance zones.
Sell-side liquidity has been swept around the 3,320 level.
Order Block Sell Zone remains active at 3,342 – 3,344, potentially leading to a short-term drop.
If price breaks above 3,357 – 3,363 (VPOC & OB zone), a new bullish leg may form.
🎯 Trade Plan for Today
🟩 Buy Opportunity Zone
Entry: 3,312 – 3,310
Stop Loss: 3,306
Take Profits:
→ 3,316 → 3,320 → 3,324 → 3,328 → 3,335 → 3,340 → 3,350
📌 This zone has shown strong demand historically. Look for bullish candle confirmation on the lower timeframe (M15–H1).
🟥 Sell Opportunity Zone
Entry: 3,362 – 3,364
Stop Loss: 3,368
Take Profits:
→ 3,358 → 3,354 → 3,350 → 3,345 → 3,340
📌 This area overlaps with a VPOC level and prior order block – watch for price rejection patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, fake breakouts).
⚠️ Risk Note
With geopolitical and monetary policy headlines dominating sentiment, price may spike erratically. Avoid overleveraging and always respect your SL/TP.
💬 What’s Your Take?
Do you think gold will break below 3,300 and head toward deeper FVG zones?
Or will bulls regain control and aim for 3,377 liquidity?
👇 Drop your analysis and let’s build the best gold trading community together!
Forex
NZDUSD Excellent buy opportunity on the Channel Up bottom.Last time we looked at the NDUSD pair (May 27, see chart below), we gave a buy signal that in a few days hit our 0.60900 Target:
This time the price is trading exactly at the bottom of a 3-month Channel Up, with the 1D RSI entering its Support Zone. The true Support might be a little lower on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and as long as it holds, the trend will remain bullish, but this is the first strong buy signal of the chart.
Our Target is 0.61450, which will be a +4.10% rise, exactly the same as both previous Bullish Legs.
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EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my fresh support & resistance analysis for EURUSD.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Vertical Support 2: Falling trend line
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 1.1577 - 1.1600 area
Support 2: 1.1445 - 1.1458 area
Support 3: 1.1356 - 1.1373 area
Support 4: 1.1190 - 1.1280 area
Resistance 1: 1.1682 - 1.1766 area
Resistance 2: 1.1807 - 1.1830 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD LONG 7/7/25Looking to target 3,450 price level. This is based on:
1. Price has been on a range since April 22 when the high was formed, the low of the move
that formed the high was taken out. Looking to aim to taking out the high.
2. On the weekly timeframe, last week took out the low of the week before and closed bullish
within the candle of the prior week. This provides a signal for a potential sweep of the high
of that week. Minimum 3,365 price level.
USDCAD is breaking the trendline againOnce again, FX_IDC:USDCAD is breaking its medium-term downside resistance line, drawn from the current highest point of this year. If the rate remains above it, we may see a few more bulls stepping in. Let's take a look.
MARKETSCOM:USDCAD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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"Three Drives" And EURJPY Bulls Could Be Out!!OANDA:EURJPY has potentially been forming quite a rare Reversal Pattern, the Three Drives Pattern, after making a Bullish Breakout of the Triangle, lets break it down!
Three Drive Patterns are very similar to ABCD patterns except for one thing, a Retracement instead of a Reversal after the CD Leg is finished!
In the CD Leg, Price creates quite a Trading Volume Gap between 172.1 - 171.8 and after Price declines from Point D (normally a Short Opportunity on an ABCD Pattern), Price actually makes a 61.8% Retracement of CD, creating Point E in that very Price Range and moves up, which "drives" a strong case that we potentially could be looking at a Three Drive Pattern!
Now that we have Point E, we can use the Fibonacci Retracement Tool to help give us an idea on where the Extension of the EF Leg could potentially end and the Fibonacci Levels suspected are:
123.6% --> 173.585
138.2% --> 173.795
161.8% --> 174.134
Once Price has made an Extension, shows Reaction, and moves Down from these levels; this could generate a great Short Opportunity!
EURUSD BUYThe EUR/USD pair edged lower in the past week, settling a handful of pips below the 1.1700 mark, further retreating from the multi-year peak posted early in July at 1.1830. Financial markets kept revolving around the United States (US) President Donald Trump's targets. With geopolitical woes cooling down, Trump’s focus returned to tariffs, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) wait-and-see stance on monetary policy.
Trump fixated on tariffs and Powell
Since the week started, speculative interest kept their eyes on the July 9 tariffs deadline. Trump announced massive retaliatory levies on over 180 trading partners in May, quickly establishing a 90-day grace period afterwards. His goal was to clinch better trade deals with all these nations. But as the date loomed, deals were scarce. The US made some trade arrangements with some minor economies, such as Vietnam, but there were none with major counterparts, nor, of course, with China
TP 1 1.162
TP 2 1.165
TP 3 1.168
RESISTANCE 1.154
AUDNZD - Short-Term Pullback Expected from Key ResistanceAUDNZD - Short-Term Pullback Expected from Key Resistance
📈 Setup Overview:
AUDNZD has been trending bullish but has now reached a critical resistance level that aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending trendline. This confluence suggests a potential short-term pullback opportunity.
🔍 Analysis:
Strong bullish wave structure intact
Price testing key resistance + ascending trendline upper boundary
Expecting retracement toward trendline support
Overall bullish structure remains favorable for continuation after pullback
📊 Trade Details:
Entry: Sell Stop at 1.091745
Risk Management: 1:2 Risk-to-Reward Ratio
Bias: Short-term bearish pullback within larger bullish trend
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always use proper position sizing.
GOLD Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,328.03.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,388.97.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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EURJPY Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURJPY.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 172.355.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 174.222 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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AUDCHF Will Grow! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDCHF.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 0.519.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 0.534 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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GBPAUD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPAUD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 2.071.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 2.058 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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AUDNZD 4H TIME FRAME ANALYSISAUDNZD is currently in a short-term downtrend on the 4-hour chart. Price has been forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish pressure. Recent candles show rejection at higher levels, supporting downside continuation.
1.09400 – 1.09550: Strong resistance zone where price was previously rejected multiple times.
1.09380 (your entry) aligns with a minor lower high, reinforcing this level as a valid sell area.
Yen Weakness Deepens as Dollar Strength ResurfacesThe Japanese Yen continues to struggle, extending its multi-session decline against the U.S. Dollar. This morning’s weakness followed disappointing Japanese trade data, with June’s surplus falling well short of expectations due to another sharp contraction in exports, particularly to China. This trend has renewed fears that Japan may be slipping into a technical recession, which has further undermined confidence in the Yen.
Beyond trade numbers, Japan’s macro landscape is becoming increasingly fragile. Real wages have declined, inflation is cooling, and the Bank of Japan’s path to normalizing policy now appears more uncertain. Adding to the pressure, political risk is also rising ahead of the upcoming Upper House election, leaving markets without a clear direction from fiscal leadership.
In contrast, the U.S. Dollar is enjoying a resurgence. Federal Reserve members, including Williams and Logan, hinted this week that rates could remain higher for longer, particularly as President Trump’s latest wave of tariffs adds to inflation concerns. The administration’s recent clarification that there are no plans to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also calmed investor nerves, restoring faith in policy stability. The result: increased demand for the dollar at the Yen’s expense.
Technical Outlook:
• Current price: Just below 148.60 resistance
• Support: 147.90 and 147.50
• Breakout potential: A decisive move above 148.60 could open the door toward 149.60 and even test the psychological 150.00 mark—last seen in March.
• Indicators: Price is supported by the 100-hour EMA with positive oscillator alignment.
Momentum remains bullish unless support at 147.90 is breached.
Takeaway: Expect continued volatility as the Yen reacts to domestic data while USD remains supported by Fed hawkishness and trade tensions.
GBPNZD Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPNZD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 2.254.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 2.262 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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AUDNZD Breakout: Long Opportunity in Ascending ChannelToday I want to share with you a Long position opportunity in AUDNZD ( OANDA:AUDNZD ).
Let's first take a brief look at the AUDNZD fundamentals .
RBNZ kept rates at 3.25% , signaling likely further cuts in August.
RBA paused at 3.60% , but dovish bias remains; markets expect more easing ahead.
As NZD is more pressured by immediate rate cuts than AUD, the fundamental setup favors a bullish AUDNZD.
Now let's find a long position for AUDNZD using technical analysis .
AUDNZD seems to have managed to break through the Heavy Resistance zone(1.0963 NZD-1.0870 NZD) and is moving near the Support zone(1.0964 NZD-1.0954 NZD) on the 1-hour time frame .
AUDNNZD is also moving in an Ascending Channel .
I expect AUDNZD to rise at least to the Resistance lines , the second target is the Resistance zone(1.103 NZD-1.0993 NZD).
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.0944 NZD
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Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Analyze (AUDNZD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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BITCOIN SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 118,311.95
Target Level: 111,141.79
Stop Loss: 123,054.98
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
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CAD/JPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
CAD/JPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 108.259
Target Level: 106.600
Stop Loss: 109.355
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
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AUD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the AUD/JPY with the target of 92.517 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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July 13, Forex Outlook : This Week’s Blueprint to Profit!Welcome back, traders!
In today’s video, we’ll be conducting a Forex Weekly Outlook, analyzing multiple currency pairs from a top-down perspective—starting from the higher timeframes and working our way down to the lower timeframes.
Currency Pairs:
EURUSD
USDCAD
AUDUSD
EURGBP
EURJPY
GBPCHF
USDCHF
NZDCHF
NZDUSD
EURNZD
Our focus will be on identifying high-probability price action scenarios using clear market structure, institutional order flow, and key confirmation levels. This detailed breakdown is designed to give you a strategic edge and help you navigate this week’s trading opportunities with confidence.
📊 What to Expect in This Video:
1. Higher timeframe trend analysis
2. Key zones of interest and potential setups
3. High-precision confirmations on lower timeframes
4. Institutional insight into where price is likely to go next
Stay tuned, take notes, and be sure to like, comment, and subscribe so you don’t miss future trading insights!
Have a great week ahead, God bless you!
The Architect 🏛️📉
GBP/CAD BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the GBP/CAD pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 1.873 level.
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GBP/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
GBP/JPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 199.409
Target Level: 198.698
Stop Loss: 199.884
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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