USD/CAD - 6C1! : Trade update FundamentalThe US dollar index (DXY) gained strength against major currencies on Monday following a landmark trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. During the meeting in Scotland on Sunday, President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new trade framework, which includes a 15% import tariff on EU goods—half of the 30% rate Trump had initially threatened to impose starting August 1.
The DXY opened higher at the start of the week, and it’s clear that most currencies are likely to see a decline in response. This trend also extends to pairs like the 6C1! (USDCAD), where the USD has been increasing its long positions. Last week, non-commercial traders added to their holdings, while commercial traders remain at their highest levels since 2021. Based on this setup, we are maintaining a bullish outlook and expect the continuation of our long position strategy.
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Forex
GBPUSD: Strong Trend-Following Pattern 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD is going to drop lower.
The market has completed a correctional movement within
a bearish flag.
Its support violation provides a strong bearish confirmation.
I expect a drop to 1.3202 level.
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AUDJPY; Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaIn this post, I’ll be sharing my analysis of AUDJPY with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy.Picture tells more than 1000 words, no BS. I highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
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AUDJPY: goodbye uptrend?On the 4H chart, AUDJPY has printed a textbook double top pattern, breaking the rising trendline and diving below the 95.6–95.78 support zone - now acting as resistance. The pair is currently retesting this zone from below, which often provides a clean re-entry point for bears.
This area also aligns with the 0.705–0.79 Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing it as a key resistance. If the price rejects this zone, the next target is 93.85 (1.618 Fibo projection), followed by 93.25 and potentially 91.71 if momentum strengthens.
Fundamentally, the yen gains strength on risk-off flows and diverging rate expectations, while the Australian dollar is pressured by falling commodity prices and a likely pause from the RBA. This widens the rate differential and weakens AUD.
As long as price remains below 95.78, sellers are in control. Watch for a rejection from this retest zone.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 1, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading session, the Euro experienced a significant drop, reaching the 1.139 level, and completing what is referred to as the Inner Currency Dip. As a result of the completion, the currency reversed direction and made a strong rebound, hitting the Mean Resistance level at 1.160. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to enter a sustained downward move after retesting the Mean Resistance at 1.160, with the target set to revisit the completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.139. However, it is essential to consider the possibility of continued upward momentum towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.177. Such a movement could trigger a significant rebound and lead to the completion of the Outer Currency Rally at 1.187.
NZDJPY Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 87.264.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 88.444 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPJPY Will Move Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 195.702.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 197.050.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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NASDAQ at Key Turning Point 🔍Technical Context
After testing the 23,600–23,800 supply zone, price printed a strong bearish rejection with a weekly engulfing candle.
The RSI broke decisively below the midline, signaling a clear loss of momentum.
Price is now trading back within the weekly demand zone between 22,800 and 22,950.
If a pullback toward 23,200 occurs, it could offer a fresh short opportunity, with downside targets around 22,600.
🪙 COT Report – July 29
Non-Commercials (speculators):
Long: +8,581
Short: +4,355
Commercials (hedging):
Long: +4,955
Short: +8,556
The market remains net long, but commercials are increasingly hedging with shorts.
The current imbalance — 88.6% long vs 11.3% short — suggests excessive bullish positioning, raising the risk of a correction.
🗓️ Seasonality – August
August is historically strong for the NASDAQ:
+222 pts (10Y)
+400 pts (5Y)
+912 pts (2Y)
While the trend is clearly bullish seasonally, caution is warranted:
Tops are often formed during the first half of August, followed by more pronounced corrections in September.
📉 Operational Summary
Primary scenario:
Wait for a retest of the 23,200–23,250 area
Look for rejection signals → enter short
Target 1: 22,800
Target 2: 22,600
Alternatively:
If 22,800 breaks on a strong weekly close, deeper downside scenarios may unfold.
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 67.26
Target Level: 68.46
Stop Loss: 66.46
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
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EUR/CHF SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
EUR/CHF pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously rising on the 5H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.926 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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EUR/NZD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR/NZD pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 12H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.929 area.
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CAD_JPY BEARISH BREKAOUT|SHORT|
✅CAD_JPY broke the key structure level of 107.400
While trading in an local downtrend
Which makes me bearish
And I think that after the retest of the broken level is complete
A rebound and bearish continuation will follow
SHORT🔥
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GBP-AUD Growth Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-AUD made a retest
Of the horizontal support
Of 2.0420 and we are
Already seeing a bullish
Rebound so we will be
Expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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CHF_JPY RISKY LONG|
✅CHF_JPY has retested a key support level of 182.800
And as the pair is already making a bullish rebound
A move up to retest the supply level above at 183.700 is likely
LONG🚀
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EUR-AUD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD made a bullish
Breakout of the falling resistance
And the breakout is confirmed
So we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
On Monday!
Buy!
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GBPNZD: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the GBPNZD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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GBPUSD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GBPUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GBPUSD
Entry Point - 1.3264
Stop Loss - 1.3287
Take Profit -1.3218
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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CADJPY Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
CADJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 107.35 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 107.90
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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NZDJPY: Bullish Continuation
The recent price action on the NZDJPY pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
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EURNZD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURNZD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.9459
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.9390
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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Nonfarm Pay Attention Zone✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD is recovering and increasing towards the resistance zone of yesterday's US session. The 3315 zone is considered a strategic zone for Nonfarm today. A sweep up and then collapse to the liquidity zone of 3250 will be scenario 1 for Nonfarm today. If this important price zone is broken, we will not implement SELL strategies but wait for retests to BUY. It is very possible that when breaking 3315, it will create a DOW wave with the continuation of wave 3 when breaking the peak of wave 1.
📉 Key Levels
SELL trigger: Reject resistance 3315.
Target 3250
BUY Trigger: Break out and retest resistance 3315
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
XAUUSD prices current scenario This chart presents a range-bound price action within an ascending channel and offers two potential breakout trade opportunities depending on price direction.
🔍 Chart Summary:
> Current Price: Around 3326-3328
> Pattern: Ascending channel
> Bias: Neutral (waiting for breakout)
📊 Channel Analysis:
> Price is moving inside an ascending channel, marked by two parallel trendlines (support and resistance).
> This suggests gradual bullish pressure, but the price is still within a consolidation/ranging structure.
> Buyers and sellers are currently indecisive, waiting for a clear breakout direction.
🧠 Trade Scenarios:
✅ Buy Setup:
: Condition: Breakout above the upper channel resistance
: Confirmation: Break and close above channel, ideally with strong bullish candles and volume
: Target: 3370 (marked as TP1 for buy trade)
> Reasoning: Breakout confirms buyer dominance and momentum continuation
❌ Sell Setup:
: Condition: Breakdown below the lower channel support
: Confirmation: Break and close below the channel with a bearish engulfing or volume spike
: Target: 3300 (marked as TP for sell trade)
> Reasoning: Break below structure indicates loss of buyer control and return of bearish trend
⚠️ Key Notes:
: The ascending channel suggests short-term bullish strength, but no strong trend has been confirmed yet.
: Avoid entering within the channel—this is a no-trade zone due to market indecision.
: Wait for confirmation of breakout/breakdown before entering trades.
✅ Conclusion:
> The price is currently in a rising consolidation channel.
> Breakout above = buy opportunity toward 3370
> Breakdown below = sell opportunity toward 3300
This is a classic wait-for-breakout setup—ideal for breakout traders looking for defined risk and reward zones.
GBPUSD BUYGBP/USD rebounds from lows, back above 1.3200
GBP/USD now alternates gains with losses in the low-1.3200s, reversing an early pullback to the 1.3180 zone. Meanwhile, Cable's inconclusive tone is accompanied by some renewed selling pressuron on the the US Dollar in the wake of US data releases.
Robust macroeconomic data releases from the United States (US) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious tone on policy-easing fuelled a bullish rally in the US Dollar (USD) midweek, causing GBP/USD to decline sharply.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate showed that the United States' (US) economy staged an impressive comeback following the 0.5% contraction seen in the first quarter. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%. Additionally, ADP Employment Change came in at 104,000 in July, beating analysts' estimate of 78,000 by a wide margin.
Later in the day, the Fed announced that it maintained the policy rate at the range of 4.25%-4.5% in a widely expected decision. The policy statement showed that Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, preferring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, which was also anticipated.
In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from confirming a rate cut at the next meeting in September, citing heathy conditions in the labor market and explaining that the current policy stance as being appropriate to guard against inflation risks. Moreover, Powell said that the policy was not holding back the economy despite being still modestly restrictive.
According go the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in September dropped toward 40% from above-60% before the Fed event. In turn, US Treasury bond yields pushed higher and the USD outperformed its rivals during the American trading hours.
The BEA will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June on Thursday. Powell said that they expect the annual PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation to come in at 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be featured in the US economic calendar. Ahead of Friday's critical July employment report, investors could remain hesitant to take large positions based on this data.
It's important to note that month-end flows on the last day of July could ramp up volatility toward the end of the European session and trigger irregular movements in the pair.
SUPPORT 1.33727
SUPPORT 1.33128
SUPPORT 1.32590
RESISTANCE 1.3052
RESISTANCE 1.31567