Market next move Original Analysis Summary:
Price has entered a support area and is expected to bounce.
Two possible bullish paths (blue & yellow arrows) suggest a continuation toward the marked target zone.
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Disruption Thesis: Bearish Reversal Setup
1. Overextended Rally Into Resistance
The move up into the “support area” is sharp and fast, suggesting it's a liquidity grab.
This zone might actually be a supply zone, where smart money is offloading.
Disruption Call: Price could stall or reverse sharply from this area due to lack of follow-through volume.
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2. Volume Profile Weakness
Volume peaked earlier in the rally and is now diminishing, which often signals buyer exhaustion.
Disruption Call: Fading bullish momentum implies a fakeout, not a breakout.
---
3. False Breakout / Bull Trap
The green arrow assumes a bounce, but price may just be hovering to bait longs before dropping.
Previous swing highs near 1.1320 may act as a strong rejection point.
Disruption Call: A sudden drop below 1.1300, with a new bearish wave back to 1.1250 or lower.
Forexsignals
Market next move Original Analysis Recap:
Support Zone marked just below the current price.
Bearish Move Expected (red arrow) from current resistance.
Bullish Bounce Expected after initial drop (blue and yellow arrows).
Target is placed lower than current price, implying expected downward movement.
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Disruption / Contrarian Thesis:
1. Fakeout to the Downside (Bear Trap)
The analysis assumes a rejection at resistance and a drop, but:
After the large red candle previously, the market may have absorbed all selling pressure.
Current consolidation shows higher lows—suggesting hidden buying.
Disruption Call: A quick dip below support (triggering stops), followed by a strong bullish reversal breaking through the resistance zone.
---
2. Volume Insight Ignored
Note that recent volume spiked on green candles during recovery.
Current retracement has lower volume, suggesting it may be a pause in uptrend (not a reversal).
Disruption Call: This is accumulation, not distribution. A breakout above 33.20 could happen, aiming for 33.40 or higher.
---
3. Structural Misinterpretation
The “support” identified may not be valid—it’s part of the consolidation range.
True demand zone could be deeper, around 32.90–33.00.
Market rising up Original Analysis Overview:
Support Zone: Clearly marked.
"Flying" Point: Suggests a bullish breakout.
Target: Indicates price will rise significantly.
Arrows: Imply breakout is likely to follow bullish momentum.
---
Disruption / Contrarian Viewpoint:
1. False Breakout Risk
The tight consolidation just above the support line might indicate a bull trap—a false breakout intended to lure in long positions before a sharp reversal. The “flying” point might instead be a liquidity hunt.
Disruption Call: Expect price to briefly break above resistance and then drop below support, invalidating the bullish thesis.
2. Volume Divergence
Volume is not significantly increasing at the breakout point. True breakouts typically come with a volume surge.
Disruption Call: Weak volume suggests lack of conviction. Price may revert back into the range or breakdown.
3. Macro Sentiment Shift
If macroeconomic news (e.g., Fed policy, USD strength) flips bearish for gold, technical setups may get invalidated.
Market next move
1. Support Zone Validation
Observation: Price is reacting from a labeled “Support area.”
Disruption: The support zone is based on very recent price action with limited prior structure. No confirmed double bottom, bullish engulfing, or strong rejection candle is present to confirm it as strong support yet.
---
2. Volume Context Ignored
Observation: Volume has declined during recent candles.
Disruption: A genuine reversal from support typically comes with a volume spike. The current volume profile shows weakening participation, which questions the strength of the bounce.
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3. Premature Long Target Projection
Observation: A bullish arrow targets the 1.134–1.135 zone.
Disruption: This target is overly optimistic given the lack of a trend change signal. Price is still in a clear lower-high and lower-low structure, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact unless a breakout above 1.1300 occurs.
---
4. Bearish Scenario Underdeveloped
Observation: Only a single red arrow shows bearish rejection.
Disruption: There is no defined breakdown zone or bearish continuation pattern shown (e.g., flag or wedge). If support breaks, price could rapidly move to 1.1200, but this scenario is underrepresented.
---
5. No Confirmation Candlestick for Bullish Entry
Observation: A bullish move is anticipated from current levels.
Disruption: The current candle structure does not confirm bullish control—no hammer, engulfing, or clear reversal pattern. Entering long here could be premature without that confirmation.
---
6. Lack of EMA or RSI Confluence
Observation: Analysis is purely price-action based.
Disruption: No exponential moving averages (EMAs) or RSI are shown to validate trend change. These tools could help confirm divergence or trend reversal.
Flying upward 1. Assumption of Support
Observation: The "Support" zone is marked around the 3,285–3,290 level.
Disruption: This area has only a few touches and lacks clear validation. Support should be confirmed with multiple bounces and strong volume reactions. Here, volume is present but inconclusive.
2. Overly Optimistic Target
Observation: The target area is set around 3,350, which assumes a clean breakout.
Disruption: This ignores potential resistance levels between 3,310–3,330 that could act as hurdles. The price might stall or reverse before reaching that far.
3. Breakout Path Assumptions
Observation: The blue arrows suggest a bullish breakout, possibly after a retest.
Disruption: There's a strong red rejection candle marked by a red arrow—suggesting bearish momentum. Without strong bullish confirmation (like a bullish engulfing or volume spike), this breakout path is speculative.
4. Lack of Broader Context
Observation: The chart is isolated to a 1-hour timeframe.
Disruption: No higher timeframe trend is considered. If the 4H or Daily chart shows a downtrend, this small support could be insignificant and might break.
5. Volume Analysis Gaps
Observation: Volume bars are visible but not integrated into the analysis.
Disruption: No divergence or volume support is identified. Rising prices without rising volume can indicate a weak move, increasing failure chances.
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 143.84
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 142.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 145.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8334
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8420
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8202
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?GBP/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3442
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3505
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.3318
Why we like it:
There is a support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
UPDATE ON USDJPY Buy Bias Analysis – May 2025Earlier this week, I maintained a bullish bias on USDJPY after the price reversed from the weekly demand zone at 139.901 on April 21, 2025, supported by bullish seasonality and strong institutional positioning.
However, during the first three days of this week, USDJPY pulled back to around 142.814, moving below the initial point of interest. This short-term bearish move tested sentiment, but price has now reached a daily demand zone, where a bullish indecision candle is currently forming.
This candle signals a potential shift in momentum, suggesting that the bulls may be regaining control. With the seasonal trend, institutional long positions, and a technical support zone aligning, the setup remains valid — only delayed.
The Yen's recent strength, driven by its safe-haven appeal, is likely to fade as the USD begins to assert dominance once again. This sets the stage for a possible continuation of the broader bullish move.
I maintain my buy bias on USDJPY, with a focus on price action confirmation at current levels.
FOLLOW ME FOR WEEKLY BIAS.
GBPUSD Short-Term Top Forming Target 1.3360GBPUSD has bounced slightly, but the structure remains heavy and indecisive. However, EURUSD and Gold 4H charts are starting to break down clearly.
EURUSD is dragging lower step by step.
Gold broke a key support zone.
Both are signaling that USD strength is returning — and GBPUSD is likely to follow.
🔍 Technical View
Price rejected from the 1.3465–1.3470 zone (FOMC CPI high)
Lower highs building on the 1H and 4H timeframes
Trading below the 50% retracement of the recent CPI rally
🧠 Key Observation
“A sharp drop on EURUSD from current price will confirm a top is in place on GBPUSD.”
If EURUSD breaks 1.1270 decisively, expect GBPUSD to follow with increased momentum.
🔽 Trade Bias
Bearish below 1.3435
Targets:
1.3360 (first fib cluster + liquidity pocket)
1.3330 (full wave completion)
Invalidation: Clear close above 1.3470
⚠️ Watch for:
U.S. PMI revisions or FOMC speakers to fuel USD move
GBP Retail Sales data tomorrow — potential catalyst
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY AND SELL S FOR TODAYETUP Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading in a tight **rising wedge pattern** 📈 on the 30-minute chart, just below a key **resistance level at 3,325** 🔼. The price action shows signs of consolidation, indicating that a breakout could be imminent. If the bulls manage to push the price above this resistance 🚀, we may see a strong upward continuation toward higher targets. However, if the wedge fails and price breaks downward 📉, there is potential for a retracement toward the **support levels at 3,304** and further down to **3,274** 🛑. This is a crucial decision point — traders should watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before taking positions ⚠️.
EURUSD Pullback in Play – Next Stop: $1.1337EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is moving in the Resistance zone($1.1310-$1.1162) while the upper line of the descending channel has been broken.
According to Elliott Wave theory , a breakout of the descending channel can at least confirm the end of a corrective wave . The corrective wave structure was a Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect EURUSD to rise to at least $1.1337 after completing a pullback to the upper line of the descending channel .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.11590, we can expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NZD/JPY Breaks Wedge Structure – Bearish Setup Targets 82.42NZD/JPY has broken down from a rising wedge and failed to reclaim upper support, now acting as resistance. The structure is cleanly bearish on the 4H chart, with rejection near 85.60 and a confirmed lower high. Weak New Zealand data and rising safe-haven demand for JPY add weight to this technical setup. Price looks poised to extend toward 82.42 and possibly 80.99 if momentum builds. Bearish bias is valid unless price closes above 87.17.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Pattern: Rising wedge → broken → retest failed
Bear Flag: Forming below wedge base, suggesting further downside
Resistance Area: 85.60–87.17
Bearish Structure:
Lower highs and bearish candle formations
Price unable to reclaim former support trendline
Support Targets:
First TP: 84.00 – minor support, fib confluence
Second TP: 82.42 – March swing low
Final TP: 81.00 zone – next fib cluster
🌍 Macro Fundamentals
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Retail Sales missed: 0.0% vs 0.9% forecast → consumer sector is slowing
Core Retail Sales weak: 0.7% vs 1.4%
Dairy auction (GDT Index) down -0.9% → key export underperforming
Implication: Risk of slower growth → RBNZ may shift toward neutral/dovish stance
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY)
JPY supported by risk-off flows due to:
U.S. credit downgrade
Iran-US nuclear tension
Declining global PMI forecasts
Yen strengthens as traders seek safe havens despite BoJ’s dovish baseline
🎯 Trade Plan
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: 85.50–85.60 (confirmation area)
Targets:
TP1: 84.00
TP2: 82.42
TP3: 81.00
Stop Loss: Above 87.17 (invalidates wedge breakdown)
⚠️ What to Watch
China sentiment or surprise stimulus (may support NZD)
Sharp equity rallies (could reduce JPY demand short-term)
If NZD/JPY closes above 86.00, reduce position or stay out
🧭 Conclusion
NZD/JPY has rolled over from a broken rising wedge, now forming a clean bearish continuation structure. Weak NZ data and macro risk flows into JPY favor downside extension. This setup offers clear levels, defined risk, and macro alignment — ideal for disciplined short entries.
Market fall down 1. Weak Bearish Confirmation
Issue: The red arrow implies a confirmed downtrend, but the price action doesn’t show a strong breakdown—just a slight dip through a thin support zone.
Disruption: Without strong bearish candles or volume spikes, the breakdown could be a false move or liquidity grab before a reversal.
---
2. Overconfidence in Double Bottom Reversal
Issue: The blue “W” pattern and green arrow suggest a possible double bottom, but no clear second bottom has formed yet.
Disruption: Assuming a reversal prematurely is risky. The price may continue dropping, invalidating the bullish reversal scenario.
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3. Target Placement Is Vague
Issue: The "Target" is placed arbitrarily along a horizontal line without referencing key resistance levels or technical confluences.
Disruption: Without support from Fibonacci, previous highs, or indicators, the target lacks reliability and could mislead trade planning.
---
4. Lack of Volume Context
Issue: The volume histogram shows a spike during a previous down move, but no current volume analysis is integrated into the decision.
Disruption: Price action alone, especially on lower timeframes, is insufficient without volume confirmation to validate breakouts or breakdowns.
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5. No Risk Management Displayed
Issue: The analysis includes bullish and bearish paths but omits stop-loss levels or invalidation zones.
Disruption: Without clear invalidation, the trade becomes ambiguous and exposes the trader to unnecessary risk if price deviates unexpectedly.
xauusd stron down next movePrice is in a resistance/selling zone near 3,310–3,340.
Expected to reject and drop to the target/support near 3,260.
Strong bearish bias based on resistance zone.
Disruptive Bullish Scenario:
Breakout Confirmation:
If the price breaks and closes above 3,340, this invalidates the resistance zone.
This would trigger stop-losses from sellers and initiate buy momentum.
Volume Spike & Momentum:
Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?GBP/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st, pullback resistance.
Pivot: 191.56
1st Support: 190.35
1st Resistance: 193.65
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Epic EUR/NZD Forex Heist Plan - Join the Thief Trading Crew!Greetings, wealth chasers and market bandits! 🌍👋
Welcome to the ultimate EUR/NZD "Euro vs Kiwi" Forex Bank Heist, crafted with the slick Thief Trading Style, blending razor-sharp technicals with game-changing fundamentals. 📊💸 Follow the strategy mapped out on the chart for a long entry, aiming to cash out near the high-stakes Red Zone—a risky, overbought area with potential consolidation, trend reversals, or traps where bearish bandits lurk. 🏴☠️💪 Score big, take your profits, and treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 🎉
Entry Plan 📈: The heist is live! Wait for the price to break past the previous high (1.91600) to jump in for bullish gains. For precision, set buy stop orders above the moving average or place buy limit orders within a 15- or 30-minute timeframe near recent swing lows/highs for pullback entries.
📌 Pro Tip: Set an alert on your chart to catch the breakout moment!
Stop Loss 🛑: Listen up, crew! If using a buy stop order, hold off on setting your stop loss until the breakout confirms. Place it at the nearest swing low on the 4H timeframe (1.89300) for day trades, adjusting based on your risk, lot size, and number of orders. Play it smart, or you’re gambling with fire! 🔥
Target 🎯: Aim for 1.95700—let’s hit the jackpot!
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Why EUR/NZD is Hot 🔥: The "Euro vs Kiwi" pair is riding a bullish wave, fueled by key market drivers. Dive into fundamentals, macroeconomics, COT reports, sentiment, intermarket analysis, and future trends for the full scoop. Check the linkkss for details! 🔗🌎
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Skip new trades during news events.
Use trailing stop-loss orders to secure profits.
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Market next target
Disruption: Bearish Counter-Analysis
1. Rising Wedge Pattern:
The price action resembles a rising wedge, not a bullish channel.
Rising wedges are typically bearish reversal patterns, especially after strong prior bullish moves.
2. Decreasing Volume:
Volume is tapering off as price climbs, which often signals weakening buying pressure.
Lack of strong volume near resistance suggests potential fake-out risk.
3. Bearish Divergence Risk:
Not visible here, but on RSI or MACD, rising price with slowing momentum often triggers bearish divergence.
This could suggest an imminent drop.
4. False Breakout Trap:
The highlighted resistance zone could trap late buyers.
A fake breakout followed by a strong red candle could trigger stop-loss hunts, dragging price sharply lower.
5. Macro Event Warning:
The U.S. flag at the bottom suggests high-impact news is due.
If USD strengthens, GBP/USD may reject the resistance and drop fast, invalidating the long setup.
Market next move Disruption (Bearish/Contrarian Outlook):
1. Bearish Divergence:
If RSI or MACD (not shown) is diverging (price making higher highs, indicator making lower highs), this could signal weakness in the uptrend.
2. Rising Wedge Pattern:
The channel might be interpreted as a rising wedge, which is often a bearish reversal pattern, especially if volume declines as price rises.
3. Strong Resistance Zone:
The red rectangular zone could act as major resistance, potentially causing a false breakout or rejection rather than continuation.
4. Volume Discrepancy:
Despite the bullish move, if volume is not increasing proportionally, it might indicate a lack of conviction.
5. Potential Breakdown Path:
Price breaks below the support zone (blue trendline).
Falls to test the previous consolidation zone around $3,300 or lower.
Bearish Scenario Path (Disrupted View):
Red arrow moves sharply down through support.
New target: $3,300 or lower (next visible support).
USDJPY- IS it a beginning of major bulish trend nowthe USD/JPY pair is currently in a major bullish trend, driven by several key factors:
1. Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates compared to the Bank of Japan, attracting capital flows into the U.S. dollar and away from the yen.
2. Dovish Bank of Japan: Despite global tightening, the BOJ remains cautious about raising rates or ending yield curve control, weakening the yen further.
3. Robust U.S. Economic Data: Strong economic indicators from the U.S. (such as inflation, jobs, and GDP growth) continue to support expectations of prolonged higher rates, boosting the dollar.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance>The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3904
1st Support: 1.3781
1st Resistance: 1.3988
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.