EURAUD – Rejection From Resistance: Bearish Momentum BuildingThe recent rally on EURAUD has met strong rejection near the 1.7980–1.8000 supply zone, signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum. With price forming a clear lower high and pushing away from the upper range, traders may be eyeing short setups targeting deeper fib retracements. Here's how the fundamentals align with the technical picture:
🔻 Bias: Bearish
🔑 Key Fundamentals
Eurozone: While the German Ifo business sentiment has improved, hard data (like industrial output) remains weak. ECB speakers such as Panetta and Knot continue to lean dovish, signaling no urgency for further tightening.
Australia: The AUD is finding strength from a risk-on global environment, falling oil prices (positive for AUD importers), and stability in China-sensitive commodities. The RBA remains relatively hawkish versus the ECB.
Yield Spread: Euro-Australia rate differentials are narrowing, reducing EUR’s relative appeal.
⚠️ Risks to Bias
Unexpected Hawkish ECB Commentary
Risk-Off Event (e.g., equity sell-off or new geopolitical tensions) that could weaken AUD
China PMI Miss dragging AUD if demand outlook sours
📅 News/Events to Watch
June 28: U.S. Core PCE (Fed impact → EURUSD spillover)
June 30: China PMIs (key for AUD demand outlook)
Ongoing: ECB member speeches, Eurozone CPI prelims
🔄 Potential Leader
AUD Crosses (e.g., AUDJPY, AUDUSD) may lead broader moves if China PMI surprises or if commodities rebound further.
This technical rejection from the key resistance zone aligns with the macro shift favoring AUD strength over EUR. As long as price stays below the 1.7980–1.8000 zone, EURAUD may slide toward 1.7730, 1.7595, and even 1.7460 in extension.
🔔 Trade idea: Watch for bearish confirmation on the H4 close below 1.7830 to validate momentum continuation.
