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GBP/USD - H1-Triangle Breakout (17.06.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3485 2nd Support – 1.3444 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
47
$FET 4Hr Time frame DUMP before PUMP? $1 Recovery!FET/USDT – 4H Time Frame Analysis Pattern Formation: A rounding top is clearly visible, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and potential trend reversal. Trend Structure: Price is forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish trend. Key Zones: Supply Zone: $0.85 – $0.975 Demand Zone: $0.35 – $0.45 Neckline Support: Price is approaching a critical neckline level. A break below this could trigger strong downside movement. Weekly FVG & Fib Confluence: Below the neckline lies a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG). The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligns with this zone, forming a golden pocket — a key support area. Scenario 1 – Bullish Reversal: If price holds above the golden pocket, a bounce could push it back toward psychological levels (e.g., $0.70 and $0.80) Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation: If price fails to hold the FVG/GP zone, this invalidates bullish setups. Expect a breakdown targeting the $0.35–$0.45 demand zone.
by King_BennyBag
2
Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?USDJPY 17/06 – Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout? The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating just below the key 144.650 resistance, stuck within a tightening triangle structure. As markets await more clarity from both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed, price action is showing signs of indecision — but pressure is building. 🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview BOJ maintains a neutral stance: Despite growing speculation of a hawkish shift, the BOJ held rates steady, providing no strong forward guidance. Markets remain cautious. US Dollar remains resilient amid stable bond yields and expectations that the Fed may delay rate cuts, adding short-term support to USDJPY. Geopolitical risk is on the rise: Ongoing Middle East tensions are fueling safe-haven demand for JPY, capping bullish momentum. 🔍 Technical Setup (M30 Chart) Price is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, tightening between 144.652 resistance and 143.126 support. EMA 13/34/89 are aligned bullishly, but EMA 200 (red) is acting as a dynamic ceiling near 144.300. Key support zones: 144.071: Minor structural level and trendline test. 143.126: Major liquidity zone and untested demand. 🎯 Trade Scenarios 📉 Scenario 1 – Sell on Rejection at 144.652 Entry: 144.650–144.700 Stop Loss: 145.250 Take Profit: 144.071 → 143.600 → 143.126 Ideal if BOJ shifts tone or USD weakens post-Fed comments. 📈 Scenario 2 – Buy on Bullish Reaction at 143.126 Entry: 143.100–143.150 Stop Loss: 142.700 Take Profit: 143.600 → 144.071 → 144.650 → 145.200 Valid only with clear bullish confirmation on M15–M30 structure. 🧠 Final Thoughts USDJPY is coiling tightly ahead of a potential breakout. Macro uncertainty from central banks, geopolitical instability, and upcoming CPI data make this week highly volatile. Instead of chasing, let price come to your zones and react accordingly. 🔔 Focus on structure, confirm with price action, and avoid emotional trades. Patience and discipline are key in this compression phase.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 17, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to experience significant pressure against the US dollar (USD), showing a three-day decline and trading above the key psychological level of 145.000. This weakening is largely due to growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay raising rates until the first quarter of next year. The main reason for this delay is said to be the continuing uncertainty surrounding future US tariff policy, which could have a significant impact on global trade flows and Japan's economic growth. Moderate but steady growth in the US dollar is also contributing to the strengthening of the USD/JPY position, pushing the pair to new highs during the Asian trading session. However, market participants are cautious about aggressive bearish bets against the yen ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. This meeting is seen as a critical event that could provide additional signals about the central bank's long-term policy outlook. Any hints of a change in tone or new assessments of the economic situation will be carefully analyzed by traders. In addition to central bank decisions, growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may help limit deeper losses for the Japanese yen. As a traditional “safe haven,” the yen typically attracts investors during periods of global instability, which may offset some of the negative impact of interest rate differentials. In addition, the outlook for the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the growing recognition that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower borrowing costs in 2025. Expectations of future Fed rate cuts could hinder further strengthening of the US dollar and thus limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. Overall, the market remains in anticipation of key decisions that will determine the future trajectory of one of the world's most actively traded currency pairs. Trading recommendation: SELL 144.550, SL 145.000, TP 143.600
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD 16 June – Liquidity Trap or Smart Money Rotation? XAUUSD 16 June – Liquidity Trap or Smart Money Rotation? Gold surprised many traders with a sharp spike during the Asian session, only to reverse aggressively hours later. While headlines screamed “war” and panic, the price behavior told a different story—one of strategic distribution and smart money rotation... 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Context Geopolitical triggers: Rising tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran) and political assassinations triggered emotional buying across safe-haven assets like gold and oil. Institutional rotation: Major funds appear to be offloading gold positions to rebalance into equities (in correction) and oil (strong upside potential). Market narrative: News-induced FOMO drives retail into overbought zones, allowing larger players to exit at premium prices. 📈 Technical Overview (M30 Structure) Price Action: Gold tapped into major resistance at 3456–3458, showing an aggressive rejection shortly after. EMA Behavior: EMAs (13/34/89/200) are flattening across M15 and M30—early signs of a possible bearish crossover. Volume Drop: Declining volume after the spike suggests buyer exhaustion, reinforcing the idea of a bull trap. Fair Value Gap (FVG): A visible liquidity void remains below the 3390 area. Price often returns to fill these zones. 🎯 Trading Plan for Today ✅ Scenario A: Buy from Demand Zone (Liquidity Fill) Entry: 3383 – 3385 Stop Loss: 3377 Targets: 3386 → 3390 → 3394 → 3398 → 3402 → 3406 → 3410+ 📌 Best executed during London or NY session if price shows absorption or reversal confirmation. ❌ Scenario B: Sell from Resistance Only on Clear Rejection Entry: 3456 – 3458 Stop Loss: 3462 Targets: 3452 → 3448 → 3444 → 3440 → 3435 → 3430 ⚠️ Only enter shorts if clear bearish engulfing or pin-bar setup forms near resistance zone. 🧠 Market Psychology Retail FOMO is being exploited by larger players to exit risk positions. Liquidity engineering is likely in play—smart money drives price up on headlines, then exits into buyer momentum. Equity & Oil rotation signals a shift in institutional preference short-term. 📌 Final Thoughts This isn’t a time to chase breakouts. Gold is entering a volatile re-accumulation phase where news is being weaponized to induce emotional trading. The real edge lies in waiting for price to come to your level and only executing with confirmation. 🎯 Zone to Watch: 3383 – 3385 📉 Avoid chasing moves 📊 Respect your SL & manage risk like a pro — 🧭 Stay patient. The next big move will reward those with discipline and timing.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
The Calm Before the Storm: All Eyes on UK CPI & Central BanksGBPUSD 17/06 – The Calm Before the Storm: All Eyes on UK CPI & Central Banks The GBPUSD pair is coiling in a tight range near the mid-1.3500s as traders brace for two high-impact events: UK CPI data on Wednesday and interest rate decisions from both the Fed and BoE this week. Price remains supported above the 200 EMA and is compressing within a symmetrical triangle – typically a precursor to a major breakout. 📊 Macro & Fundamental Outlook 🔹 Federal Reserve (FOMC): Expected to hold rates steady, but growing anticipation of a dovish tilt toward September is weighing slightly on the USD. 🔹 Bank of England (BoE): Markets are pricing in deeper rate cuts following recent UK GDP weakness, pressuring the GBP in the short term. 🔹 Geopolitical Risks: Rising Middle East tensions are fuelling demand for USD as a safe haven, reinforcing its strength ahead of data events. 📝 Bottom Line: The CPI release could be the first trigger to shift GBPUSD’s current consolidation. A hot inflation print might push GBP higher; a miss could fuel further downside. 🔧 Technical Analysis (H1 Chart) Price is ranging between 1.3535 (support) and 1.3609 (resistance) EMAs 13/34 crossing below EMA 89 → signal of potential bearish continuation Uptrend line from 1.3467 is still intact and acting as dynamic support Break below 1.3559 may lead to a move toward 1.3495 and 1.3467 A confirmed breakout above 1.3609 opens the door to 1.3630+ 🎯 Trade Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy from Trendline Support Buy Zone: 1.3495 – 1.3467 Stop Loss: 1.3440 Targets: 1.3535 → 1.3559 → 1.3596 → 1.3630 🟢 Best setup if price prints a bullish engulfing or hammer candle on key support + UK CPI surprise. Scenario 2 – Sell on Resistance Rejection Sell Zone: 1.3609 – 1.3630 Stop Loss: 1.3660 Targets: 1.3590 → 1.3559 → 1.3535 → 1.3495 🔴 Only valid with strong rejection signals + softer UK data or hawkish Fed tone. 💡 Market Sentiment Retail traders are trapped in a waiting zone – expecting a breakout Institutions may push price into one direction pre-data to collect liquidity Risk appetite is fragile, and traders are cautious ahead of back-to-back central bank announcements 📌 Final Thoughts GBPUSD is preparing for volatility. Instead of chasing moves, let the market come to your key zones and react with discipline. The 1.3467–1.3495 support area could be crucial for the next directional move. Stay patient. Wait for confirmation. Respect your risk.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound?USDCAD 17/06 – Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound? After a significant drop to the 1.355x area, USD/CAD is showing early signs of recovery. However, the pair remains influenced by strong macro headwinds—particularly oil prices and Canadian monetary policy signals. 🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview WTI crude oil is rising due to ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, which increase the risk of global supply disruptions. This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a commodity-linked currency. Canada’s 10-year bond yields have reached their highest levels in 5 months (~3.4%), reinforcing expectations that the BoC may remain hawkish in the near term. USD weakens slightly as traders await more clarity from the Federal Reserve about the next rate cut timeline, potentially in Q3. 📊 Technical Analysis (M30 Chart) Price is printing higher lows above the key trendline. EMAs 13–34–89 are tightening → sign of sideways pressure before breakout. Short-term bullish channel still intact. Key resistance zones: 1.3581 and 1.3605. 🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios 📈 Long Scenario Entry: 1.3556 – 1.3560 (trendline bounce) Stop Loss: 1.3535 Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3605 ✅ Wait for M30/H1 confirmation like bullish engulfing or price-action breakout. 📉 Short Scenario Entry: 1.3605 (if price rejects resistance) Stop Loss: 1.3630 Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3556 ⚠️ Trigger only on bearish rejection with strong candle and volume at resistance. 📌 Strategic Outlook USD/CAD is caught in a tug-of-war: stronger Canadian fundamentals (oil + yields) vs. cautious USD movement post-FOMC. If oil prices and Canadian yields continue to climb, CAD may remain in favor. However, short-term technical rebounds toward 1.3600 remain valid if price structure holds.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
EURUSD 16 June – Technical Rebound or Liquidity Trap? EURUSD 16 June – Technical Rebound or Liquidity Trap? The EURUSD pair has shown sharp movements after testing key resistance near 1.1607. While the price action may appear bullish at first glance, deeper analysis suggests we might be facing either a continuation of the uptrend or a strategic liquidity hunt. 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Overview The ECB remains hawkish with rates still high, but recent commentary hints at a more dovish tone possibly leading to rate cuts in late Q3 2025. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance, holding off on rate cuts due to sticky core inflation. This divergence in policy expectations creates a neutral to slightly USD-favorable bias, depending on upcoming economic data. ⏳ Bottom line: EURUSD remains in a choppy environment with compression–expansion cycles, and no confirmed macro-driven trend yet. 📉 Technical Outlook (H1 Chart) Price Structure: The pair is moving within a short-term ascending channel, but current price is testing the upper boundary. EMA Analysis (13/34/89/200): Still supports an uptrend, but flattening out — potential bearish crossover if price fails to hold. Key Resistance: 1.1607: Major resistance and local top (double rejection zone). Critical Support Zones: 1.15540: Minor structural support — a decisive level for intraday direction. 1.15261 & 1.14807: Unfilled FVG zones and liquidity pools that may get targeted if the price breaks lower. 🎯 Trade Setup Ideas 📘 Scenario A – BUY from 1.15540 support (bullish continuation) Entry: 1.15540 (upon bullish candle confirmation or strong bounce) Stop Loss: 1.15200 Take Profits: 1.15850 → 1.16070 → 1.16300+ ✅ Ideal if European sentiment remains positive or if USD weakens across the board. 📕 Scenario B – SELL if price breaks and retests 1.15540 Entry: 1.15540 (after a breakdown + rejection retest) Stop Loss: 1.15720 Take Profits: 1.15261 → 1.14807 → possibly 1.1450 ✅ Best used if USD gains strength or EUR shows weakness after economic releases. 🧠 Market Psychology The market is currently reactive to any shift in tone from ECB and Fed, causing price whipsaws near key zones. Smart traders will avoid chasing breakouts and instead focus on reaction zones like 1.15540 for confirmation-based trades. Watch for fakeouts, as institutional players may be hunting liquidity before choosing direction. 📌 Final Thoughts EURUSD is in a sensitive zone, and 1.15540 is the intraday pivot. Holding above could trigger a push toward 1.1607 and higher. But failure to hold would likely attract sellers toward the 1.1480–1.1450 liquidity range. 🎯 Discipline is key. Avoid emotional entries. Let the market come to your level — and execute only with confirmation.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
EUR/CAD Long Bias🚀 EUR/CAD – Strong Long Opportunity Based on Multi-Factor Confluence Over the past week, I conducted a comprehensive macro and sentiment-driven analysis across G10 FX pairs. Among several potential setups, EUR/CAD emerged as the most fundamentally and technically aligned long opportunity, supported by a confluence of high-probability signals across positioning, macro divergence, and capital flow sentiment. 🔍 Key Drivers Behind the EUR/CAD Long Bias: 1️⃣ Macroeconomic Divergence (ENDO View) 🇪🇺 Eurozone has shown relative stability in core macro indicators: Inflation continues to cool, providing flexibility for ECB rate guidance. GDP growth remains structurally flat but not contracting — suggesting resilience. 🇨🇦 Canada, on the other hand: Shows a deteriorating inflation-growth mix. Retail Sales and Industrial Production trends are softening. ENDO analysis flags CAD as one of the weakest among G10 currencies. 2️⃣ Positioning – COT Report & Z-Scores Speculative traders are increasing their long exposure to EUR (COT net longs rising +13,887 last week). Z-Score on EUR long positions: +1.33 → statistically elevated interest in long EUR exposure. CAD positioning is flat-to-negative, with no bullish buildup in speculative flows. This gives EUR a clear relative edge in terms of speculative conviction. 3️⃣ Score & EXO Sentiment Framework EUR/CAD is one of few pairs showing clear directional consensus across: ✅ EXO Score Sheet: Long Bias confirmed. ✅ RR_w Sheet: Strong risk/reward rating supports further upside. ✅ IR Forecast Sheet: ECB-CAD policy spread favors EUR strength in medium term. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment – Risk Regime We are currently in a “Risk-On” sentiment regime, which generally favors currencies like EUR over defensive, commodity-linked currencies like CAD. CAD tends to underperform in reflationary sentiment waves — especially when Oil fails to support the currency. 5️⃣ Cluster & Trend Confirmation While not a primary factor, cluster analysis shows that EUR/CAD is not in a weak trend regime. Trend alignment over 30 and 14 days remains favorable. 🔚 Conclusion: EUR/CAD is one of the few pairs this week that aligns across all analytical fronts: macro, positioning, sentiment, and structure. In a crowded FX environment, such confluence is rare and valuable.
Long
by Idealadvantage
Gold’s Game of Traps: Is the Dip a Setup for a Bigger Move? Gold’s Game of Traps: Is the Dip a Setup for a Bigger Move? After an aggressive rally fueled by geopolitical FOMO headlines, gold (XAUUSD) saw a sudden pullback — but what looked like weakness might actually be a setup for smart accumulation. The market narrative is shifting, and price action is sending important signals... 🌍 Global Drivers Behind the Volatility Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, prompting global safe haven flows. Evacuation warnings and nuclear deal pressure add more uncertainty to the mix. Despite bullish news, gold failed to hold its highs — a potential bull trap as institutional players took advantage of retail FOMO to offload. Big capital may now be rotating from gold into other sectors like energy (oil) and discounted equity assets. 📉 Price Action & Technical Outlook (M30–H1) After topping around 3442–3440, price snapped back into the mid-range — a sign of liquidity hunting rather than a full reversal. The EMAs (13/34/89/200) on the M15–M30 timeframes are showing early signs of bearish crossover, hinting at further short-term weakness. Below current price sits a clean Fair Value Gap (FVG) that could act as a magnet — aligning with a high-probability buy zone. 🎯 Trading Playbook ✅ BUY Setup – "Smart Money Entry Zone" Buy Zone: 3342 – 3344 Stop Loss: 3338 Take Profit Targets: → 3348 → 3352 → 3356 → 3360 → 3364 → 3368 → 3372 → 3380+ 💡 Look for price to tap into the FVG and form a base with bullish confirmation (engulfing candle, divergence, or rising volume) before entering. ❌ SELL Setup – "Fade the Overhead Resistance" Sell Zone: 3440 – 3442 Stop Loss: 3446 Take Profit Targets: → 3436 → 3432 → 3428 → 3424 → 3420 → 3415 → 3410 ⚠️ Only short on a strong rejection or bearish engulfing candle near the resistance — do not short blindly. 🧠 Market Psychology Insight The initial Asian-session rally was likely a news-driven liquidity event. Institutions appear to be rotating capital, using emotional retail entries as exit liquidity. Current market conditions suggest a shakeout before a longer-term bullish move. 📌 Final Note Don’t chase price. Let it come to your zones. This market is being driven by geopolitical narrative and smart money behavior, not just technicals alone. ✅ Stay patient. 📊 Trade with logic. 🧘‍♂️ Let others FOMO — you focus on levels and confirmation. 👉 Follow for real-time London session updates and reaction-based entries.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
GOLD- XAU-USD Hello Traders! The GOLD MARKET is on fire! 🚨🔥 XAUUSD has officially broken above the key resistance zone — this is not just a move, this could be the start of something BIG! 💥📈 Is this the golden breakout we’ve been waiting for, or just a short-lived spike? Are we heading toward the next major target, or is a pullback on the horizon? 🎯🔍 Your insights matter — comment below with your analysis and let’s decode this golden move together! Stay sharp, stay golden! ⚔️💰 #XAUUSD #GoldBreakout #ForexTraders #MarketMomentum #GoldAnalysis #TradeSmart
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials NarrowUSDCAD – Bearish Bias Holds as Oil Rises & Rate Differentials Narrow 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to gain ground this week, supported by two key drivers: Crude oil prices surged due to Middle East tensions and renewed demand optimism — boosting CAD as a commodity-linked currency. US-Canada yield spreads narrowed, following revised expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may keep rates higher for longer, while the Fed is seen pausing. Short-term event risks to watch: 🇨🇦 Canadian Manufacturing Sales data today at 13:30 GMT 🇨🇦 G7 Summit in Alberta from June 15–17, which may influence oil and energy policy sentiment Our latest fair value estimate for USDCAD has shifted lower to 1.3613, reflecting tighter rate spreads and stronger oil. Technical structure remains tilted to the downside. 📉 Technical Outlook – M30 Chart 🔹 Structure: Price remains in a short-term downtrend, with a well-defined descending trendline capping upside attempts. The pair recently tested the EMA 89–200 zone and failed, suggesting continued bearish pressure. 🔹 Key Zones: Dynamic Resistance: 1.3638 – 1.3660 (trendline + EMA cluster) Support Area: 1.3592 → 1.3578 A break below 1.3578 could expose deeper downside toward 1.3420 (September lows) 🔹 Momentum Indicators: RSI has bounced from oversold (30) but remains in bearish territory. The current rebound looks corrective — potentially a dead cat bounce. 🧠 Market Sentiment Flows favour commodity-backed currencies like CAD, especially with energy prices rising. USD has weakened slightly as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week. Sentiment is leaning toward "sell the rallies" on USDCAD for now. 🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios 🔻 SELL SCENARIO – If price retests and rejects 1.3638 – 1.3660 Entry: 1.3640 – 1.3655 Stop-Loss: 1.3685 Targets: 1.3592 → 1.3578 → 1.3510 🔺 BUY SCENARIO – If strong bullish reaction occurs at 1.3592 – 1.3578 Entry: 1.3580 Stop-Loss: 1.3545 Targets: 1.3620 → 1.3640 ⚠️ Focus on trend continuation. Only consider buys if clear rejection or bullish confirmation appears at support. ✅ Conclusion The current trend in USDCAD favours sellers, with fundamental momentum supporting CAD via higher oil and narrowing yield differentials. Key resistance at 1.3638–1.3660 remains the pivot zone to monitor. With Canadian data and the G7 Summit ahead, volatility could increase.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
Dollar Momentum Fades | Can 143.07 Hold as Support?USDJPY – Dollar Momentum Fades | Can 143.07 Hold as Support? 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Outlook USDJPY has faced strong downside pressure recently as risk-off sentiment boosts demand for the Japanese Yen, following escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied on geopolitical concerns but is struggling to sustain momentum near the 98.30 resistance zone. Despite the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, JPY is acting as a safe haven in current global risk conditions. Traders are awaiting next week’s monetary policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Both central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged, but forward guidance could spark major volatility. According to UOB Group, the dollar's recovery potential is weakening, and further downside toward 142.20 is possible, unless price reclaims the 144.60–144.95 resistance zone. 📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart 🔸 Trend Structure USDJPY remains in a mild downtrend, but price has bounced from the 143.074 key support zone. A recovery towards 144.624 is in play, but that zone must be cleared for bullish continuation. 🔸 EMA Outlook Price is currently testing the EMA 89 and 200 — a rejection from this area could trigger another move down. EMA 13 & 34 are now acting as short-term dynamic support. 🔸 Key Price Zones Resistance: 144.60 – 145.26 Support: 143.07 – 142.20 🧠 Market Sentiment Risk aversion continues to dominate as geopolitical headlines drive sentiment. The Yen is benefitting from capital protection flows despite Japan’s dovish stance. Large funds may be starting to hedge by rotating into JPY from elevated USD levels. 🎯 Trading Scenarios for June 13 📌 Scenario 1 – Short Setup (Rejection at Resistance) Entry: 144.60 – 144.90 Stop-Loss: 145.30 Take-Profit: 143.60 → 143.07 → 142.50 📌 Scenario 2 – Long Setup (Rebound from Support) Entry: 143.10 – 143.20 Stop-Loss: 142.70 Take-Profit: 144.00 → 144.60 ✅ Wait for confirmation at key levels — avoid trading in the middle of the range when volatility is headline-driven. ✅ Conclusion USDJPY remains trapped between strong resistance at 145.26 and buying interest at 143.07. If risk sentiment persists, the Yen may continue to strengthen. However, central bank decisions next week (Fed & BoJ) will be the major catalysts for any medium-term breakout.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
GBPUSD – Sterling Slips Amid Geopolitical Risk |GBPUSD – Sterling Slips Amid Geopolitical Risk | Will Support Hold for a Bounce? 🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Overview The British Pound (GBP) is under pressure as risk sentiment deteriorates following a sharp escalation between Israel and Iran. Israel launched a major military campaign, striking dozens of nuclear and military facilities in northeastern Tehran. PM Netanyahu announced the start of "Operation Rising Lion", aimed at eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat. US President Donald Trump voiced support, stating that Iran “must never have a nuclear bomb.” Investors reacted by fleeing to safe-haven assets, pushing the US Dollar (DXY) from 97.60 to nearly 98.30. Meanwhile, next week’s Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve meetings are in focus. Both are expected to hold rates steady, but weak UK economic data may pressure the BoE to adopt a more cautious or dovish tone. 📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart 🔸 Trend Structure GBPUSD broke down from its recent high at 1.36288 and is now approaching key support between 1.35350 and 1.34957. As long as 1.3495 holds, the move appears to be a technical correction, not a reversal. 🔸 Fibonacci & Moving Averages Current price sits near Fibonacci 0.236 retracement of the recent swing. Price is trading below the EMA 13 & 34, but EMA 200 near 1.353x still acts as potential support. 🔸 Resistance to Watch The next upside target sits at 1.3588, followed by the previous high at 1.3628. 🧠 Market Sentiment Risk aversion is dominating due to geopolitical headlines. GBP is vulnerable as a risk-sensitive currency. However, if tensions ease and central bank decisions next week come in line with expectations, GBP could rebound from its currently discounted levels. 🎯 Trade Setup Suggestion ✅ BUY ZONE: 1.35350 – 1.34957 Stop-Loss: 1.3460 Take-Profit Targets: 1.3588 → 1.3628 Enter only on bullish price action confirmation around the support zone. ✅ Conclusion GBPUSD is trading under geopolitical stress, but the technical setup around 1.3495 – 1.3535 offers a potential bounce zone. A short-term recovery could unfold if sentiment stabilizes and central banks maintain the expected policy stance.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Surges on Middle East Conflict: What's the Next Move?XAUUSD – Gold Surges on Middle East Conflict: What's the Next Move? 🌍 Geopolitical Shock Fuels Market Volatility The gold market responded sharply after Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the Natanz uranium site. These actions triggered global concern: Gold jumped to $3,430/oz, hitting a new weekly high WTI crude surged by over 8% US equity indices dipped significantly The US remains officially neutral but confirmed it will defend its troops if provoked Investors are now moving rapidly into safe-haven assets, especially gold. 📊 Technical Breakdown (H1/M30) Trend Structure: Bullish momentum continues following the breakout above $3,392 Key Support Zone: $3,412–$3,426, with price holding above this region Fair Value Gap (FVG): Identified between $3,405–$3,412, could act as re-entry zone EMA Alignment: Price is above the 13, 34, 89, and 200 EMAs — signalling strength across short and long-term moving averages Psychological Resistance: Eyes now on the $3,454–$3,456 zone for potential selling pressure 🧠 Market Sentiment & Risk Behaviour Risk-off mood dominates: Capital is rotating into gold, CHF, and JPY Traders are reacting to news headlines over economic data Institutional flows are entering strongly on dips, building positions in defensive assets 🎯 Trade Setup for 13th June ✅ Buy Zone: 3384 – 3382 Stop-Loss: 3378 Targets: 3388 – 3392 – 3396 – 3400 – 3405 – 3410 ❌ Sell Zone: 3454 – 3456 Stop-Loss: 3460 Targets: 3450 – 3446 – 3442 – 3438 – 3434 – 3430 📌 Tactical Summary Gold remains a go-to asset amid geopolitical uncertainty. While the technicals support further upside, caution is warranted near resistance. Any easing in military headlines could trigger a fast retracement. 🔍 Pro tip: Avoid chasing. Let price confirm near key levels before entering. Manage risk diligently in high-volatility environments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 13, 2025 EURUSDEvents to pay attention today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Foreign trade balance 17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index EURUSD : EUR/USD interrupted its four-day winning streak, retreating from 1.16310, its highest level since October 2021, and is currently trading around 1.15300 in Asian hours on Friday. The pair is depreciating as the US dollar (USD) gains support as traders shift to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to rising tensions in the Middle East. Israel has attacked dozens of targets across Iran to eliminate its nuclear programme. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel could face a missile and drone strike after Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, Axios reports. In addition, White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement: ‘Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not participating in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is to protect American troops in the region.’ ‘President Trump and the administration have taken all necessary measures to protect our troops and are in close contact with our regional partners.’ ‘Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,’ Rubio added. However, the decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited, as the US dollar (USD) may face difficulties after US President Donald Trump's new threat to extend steel tariffs from 23 June to imported ‘steel-derived products’ such as household appliances, e.g. dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially introduced in March at 25% and then doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time that the scope of the duties has been expanded. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.15300, SL 1.15500, TP 1.14400
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/JPY - Triangle Breakout (12.06.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 194.34 2nd Support – 193.76 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
71
DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release | Is the Market Pricing in a Fed Pivot? 🌐 Macro & Fundamental Context As we head into the New York session on June 12, the market’s attention shifts to one critical data point: the US PPI (Producer Price Index). Following the softer-than-expected CPI reading of 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.5% forecast), the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply—signaling fading inflation pressure and reigniting rate cut expectations. ✅ Bearish Fundamentals Building for the USD: CPI miss fuels Fed rate cut bets (currently ~65% chance for September per FedWatch Tool). US Treasury yields are easing, reflecting the market’s pricing of a less aggressive Fed. Risk assets rallying as capital flows rotate away from USD into gold, equities, and long-duration bonds. If today’s PPI also comes in below forecast, it could confirm a deeper correction in DXY. Conversely, a surprise PPI upside might trigger a short-term pullback. 📉 Technical Analysis – H4 Timeframe 🔹 Overall Trend: DXY is locked within a clearly defined descending channel, with a consistent Lower High – Lower Low structure holding since late May. 🔹 Key Technical Zones: Short-term resistance: 98.548 – likely to act as a ceiling unless PPI surprises to the upside. Immediate support: 97.966 – a break below opens the door toward the key support zone at 97.191, which aligns with previous FVG imbalance and multi-timeframe demand. 🔹 EMA Structure: Price remains below all major EMAs (13 – 34 – 89 – 200), confirming persistent bearish pressure. EMA13 is currently acting as dynamic resistance on H4, pressing down on price. 🧠 Market Sentiment & Flow Insight Investors are rotating out of USD as inflation fears fade and Fed easing expectations increase. Risk-on sentiment is returning, benefiting gold and stocks while weighing on DXY. However, a hot PPI print could spook the market briefly, leading to a corrective bounce in the Dollar before the trend resumes. 🔍 Scenarios to Watch: PPI comes in lower than expected: DXY may retest 98.548 resistance and reject lower. Next targets: 97.966 → 97.191 PPI surprises to the upside: Technical bounce toward 98.5–98.8 possible. But trend remains bearish unless price reclaims 99.2+ zone. ✅ Conclusion DXY remains under pressure from both macro and technical angles. The PPI report will be the next catalyst that determines whether this is a short-term dip or the continuation of a broader USD downtrend. 🎯 Tactical view: Favour short positions on DXY if price bounces into resistance and PPI supports the disinflation narrative. Target: 97.1 and below.
TVC:DXYShort
by MMFlowTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 12, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening for the second day in a row against a weakened US Dollar (USD) and is moving further away from the two-week low reached the day before. The market's initial reaction to news of trade talks between the US and China faded rather quickly after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, curbs investors' appetite for risky assets and maintains the yen's status as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the yen is further supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may tighten monetary conditions amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. On the other hand, the US Dollar looks vulnerable near one-month lows as weaker US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, led the USD/JPY pair to fall below 143.50 in the last hour. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.30, SL 144.30, TP 141.30
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
CORN.c CORN.c Short Trade Plan (Daily Timeframe) 📍 Trade Setup Direction: Short Entry: Instant / Current Market Price (CMP) Stop Loss (SL): 465.97 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 403.36 (≈ 1:1 Risk-Reward) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 387.00 (≈ 1:1.5 Risk-Reward) 📊 Technical Justification Trend: Downtrend confirmed – price forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Candle Pattern: Bearish shooting star near resistance – strong rejection signal. 🌽 Top 3 Bearish Fundamental Reasons Favorable U.S. Weather Conditions → Ideal for crop growth → higher yield expectations → bearish pressure. Weak Global Export Demand → Sluggish corn exports (e.g., China slowdown) → less global demand for U.S. corn. Strong U.S. Dollar → Makes U.S. corn more expensive internationally → lowers export competitiveness. 🎯 Risk Management & Execution Plan Risk-Reward (TP1): ~1:1 Risk-Reward (TP2): ~1:1.5 📌 Once TP1 is hit: ✅ Move SL to Entry (Breakeven) to protect capital and ride remaining position to TP2.
ACTIVTRADES:CORNN2025Short
by SmartMoney-AR
XAG/USD - Channel Breakout (11.06.2025) The XAG/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a CHannel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 3587 2nd Support – 3555 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
42
Gold Extends Gains Post-CPI | All Eyes on PPI for the Next Move XAUUSD – Gold Extends Gains Post-CPI | All Eyes on PPI for the Next Move 🌍 Macro Pulse: CPI Sparks Momentum, But Will PPI Sustain It? Gold surged following softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday, with the CPI rising just 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY—both below forecasts. This triggered a broad sell-off in the USD, a pullback in Treasury yields, and a renewed appetite for non-yielding safe havens like gold. Markets are now increasingly pricing in a rate cut by the Fed in September, adding further fuel to the rally. However, Wednesday’s US PPI data could either reinforce this bullish sentiment or reverse it sharply. 📉 Technical Landscape – H1 & H4 View 🔹 Trend Bias The bullish structure remains intact, with price carving out higher highs and higher lows since the 3312 level. The recent breakout above 3370 confirms bullish momentum. 🔹 Price Channels Gold continues to track within a defined ascending channel. A potential retest of the lower trendline near 3345–3350 could provide a dip-buying opportunity. 🔹 EMA Structure The price trades comfortably above the 13, 34, 89, and 200 EMAs. Short-term EMA crossovers are supportive of continued upside. 🔹 Critical Resistance Ahead: 3392 – 3395 A key technical zone combining Fibonacci extension levels and recent rejection wicks. A decisive break or rejection here will set the tone for the next 48 hours. 🧠 Market Psychology & PPI Scenarios The market is currently optimistic, but still cautious. The PPI report due later today will likely serve as the next directional trigger: If PPI prints below estimates → reinforces disinflation narrative → potential breakout above 3,400 with upside targets towards 3,420+. If PPI comes in hot → raises concerns about sticky input costs → possible short-term reversal or consolidation. Expect volatility to spike during the New York session. 🎯 Today’s Tactical Trade Setups – 12 June 🟢 Buy Zone: 3324 – 3322 Stop Loss: 3318 Take Profit Targets: 3330 – 3334 – 3338 – 3342 – 3346 – 3350 🟢 Buy Scalp Zone: 3337 – 3335 SL: 3330 TPs: 3341 – 3345 – 3350 – 3354 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380 🔴 Sell Zone: 3392 – 3394 Stop Loss: 3398 Take Profit Targets: 3388 – 3384 – 3380 – 3375 – 3370 – 3360 – 3350 ✅ Final Take Gold bulls are in control, but the PPI data will likely dictate whether momentum continues or stalls. With key resistance just ahead and macro risk on the table, this is not the time to trade blindly. 🧭 Strategy Tip: Let price confirm the reaction to PPI. Don’t pre-position into volatility. Play the breakout or the fade—but wait for clarity.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Coiling in Rising Wedge Ahead of CPI: Breakout Imminent?XAUUSD – Gold Coiling in Rising Wedge Ahead of CPI: Breakout Imminent? Gold (XAUUSD) is compressing within a well-defined rising wedge pattern on the 1H chart, signaling that a decisive move is near. With the U.S. CPI report due on June 12th, traders should prepare for volatility driven by macroeconomic catalysts. Whether gold breaks higher or reverses depends on how the market digests inflation data. 🌍 Macro Backdrop: All Eyes on Inflation 📌 U.S. CPI (June 12): A softer-than-expected reading could revive Fed rate cut expectations and send gold higher. A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold. 📌 U.S.–China Trade Sentiment: Diplomatic progress in trade talks reduces safe-haven demand in the short term, weakening gold's defensive appeal. 📌 DXY & Bond Yields: A breakout in DXY or a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields post-CPI may lead to a corrective leg lower in XAUUSD. 📈 Technical Overview – Multi-Layered Structure Pattern: Gold is forming a rising wedge between higher lows and converging highs, typical of breakout scenarios. Fibonacci Levels (retracement from 3,400 to 3,296): 0.382: 3,336 – intermediate support 0.618: 3,360 – significant resistance, near current swing highs Moving Averages: Price is currently above EMA34 and EMA89 Struggling below EMA200 (red), which acts as dynamic resistance FVG Liquidity Zone: An open Fair Value Gap between 3,360 – 3,374 could act as a magnet before any reversal. 🎯 Trade Strategy Scenarios 🟢 Buy Scenario – Bounce from Support Zone Entry: 3314 – 3312 | Stop-Loss: 3308 | Take-Profit: 3318, 3322, 3326, 3330, 3335, 3340 Ideal if CPI comes in lower than expected or aligns with a bullish technical rejection from wedge support. 🔴 Sell Scenario – Rejection from Resistance Zone Entry: 3374 – 3376 | Stop-Loss: 3380 | Take-Profit: 3370, 3366, 3362, 3358, 3352, 3348, 3340 Valid if price taps into the upper liquidity zone (3,374–3,394) and fails to break, especially on CPI surprise to the upside. 🧠 Tactical Conclusion A dovish CPI → favors BUY setup off lower wedge support A hawkish CPI → favors SELL near upper resistance and liquidity zones 📌 The market is compressing and gearing up for a breakout. Patience is key — wait for confirmation at key zones and manage risk precisely.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1