Gold - DAILY- 21.07.2025Gold held steady near $3,350 an ounce as markets opened Monday, with traders assessing mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on the inflation impact of Trump’s tariff plans. Some Fed governors, like Waller and Bowman, signaled openness to rate cuts, while others remain cautious due to inflation risks. Trump continues pressuring the Fed to lower rates, with speculation about replacing Chair Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, EU officials are preparing for potential trade fallout as Trump’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline approaches. Gold is up over 25% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions and demand for safe-haven assets.
From a technical point of view, the price of gold found sufficient support on the 38.2% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level and is currently testing the resistance on the 50% around $3,355. The moving averages are confirming the overall bullish trend in the market, while at the same time, the Stochastic oscillator is near the extreme overbought level, hinting at a potential bearish correction move in the upcoming sessions. The Bollinger bands are quite expanded, showing that volatility is there to support any short-term move to either side, while the level around $3,380 is the first major technical resistance area consisting of the upper band of the Bollinger bands and the 61.% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
Fundamental-analysis
Crude Oil -DAILY- 21.07.2025Oil prices were steady after their first weekly decline this month, as attention shifted to U.S. trade negotiations and the European Union’s push to tighten restrictions on Russian energy exports. The EU is preparing new sanctions, including a lower price cap on Russian crude, limits on fuel refined from Russian oil, banking restrictions, and bans targeting an Indian refinery and Chinese firms. Despite western sanctions, Russian oil continues flowing to China and India. Meanwhile, diesel margins in Europe remain strong, signaling tight supply.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has failed to break below the major technical support area, which consists of the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic oscillator has been in the neutral level since last week hinting that there is potential for the price to move to either direction in the near short term. On the other hand, the Bollinger bands have contracted rather massively showing that volatility has dried up therefore, the recent sideways movement might extend in the upcoming sessions.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 21, 2025 USDJPYThe pair opened the week near 148.500, clawing back ground after Sunday’s upper‑house election saw Japan’s ruling LDP‑Komeito coalition lose its majority. The outcome clouds the fiscal outlook and raises the probability of additional stimulus, a combination that tends to undermine the yen as investors anticipate higher public borrowing and a looser policy mix.
At the same time, subdued inflation and stagnant real wages have pushed expectations of Bank of Japan tightening into late‑2025 at the earliest. With the 10‑year US‑Japan yield gap hovering near yearly highs, capital continues to flow from low‑yielding JGBs into higher‑yielding US assets, reinforcing dollar demand against the yen.
Dollar strength is also underpinned by persistent tariff worries and a Federal Reserve that maintains a cautious stance rather than rushing to cut rates. Given these fundamentals, USDJPY could retest the psychological 150.000 barrier, while dips below 147.500 are likely to be viewed by the market as opportunities to re‑establish long positions rather than the start of a deeper correction.
Trading recommendation: BUY 148.500, SL 147.500, TP 149.500
VZ: Verizon Earnings tomorrowwith 6% dividend yield and stock price at support level on the lower channel band, this draw attention to the earnings report tomorrow pre-market hours. Focused on future outlook as well.
If all good, I will buy VZ.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
ETH/USDT 4H Chart✅ Market Trend and Structure:
Uptrend: The highlighted orange trend line shows continuous growth since mid-April. The price is trading above the 50- and 200-period moving averages (EMA and SMA), confirming bullish sentiment.
Current price: around 3556 USDT – very close to local highs.
Resistance break in the 3200–3300 USDT area, which now acts as support.
📈 Technical Levels:
Resistance (red horizontal lines):
3600–3650 USDT – local resistance resulting from market reaction.
3888 USDT – next historical resistance level.
4133 USDT – established long-term target (green dashed line at the top).
Support:
3300 USDT – strong support after a previous breakout.
3080 USDT – previous high, now the next support level.
3070 / 2900 USDT – key technical support levels in the event of a larger correction.
📊 Indicators:
MACD:
The MACD is in a strongly bullish zone, but:
The histogram is flattening.
A bearish crossover pattern is possible in the following candles – a signal of weakening momentum.
RSI:
RSI ~74 – is in the overbought zone, which often heralds a correction or at least consolidation.
A value above 70 confirms the bullish trend but may suggest that momentum is overheated.
📌 Conclusions and Scenarios:
🔼 Upside Scenario (trend continuation):
If the price remains above 3300–3350 USDT, it could move towards 3888, and then 4133 USDT.
A break above 3650 USDT on heavy volume will be a strong continuation signal.
🔽 Corrective scenario (short-term pullback):
The RSI and MACD suggest a possible correction.
Potential pullback to:
3300 USDT (retest of previous resistance as support).
SMA 200 (~2600 USDT) with a deeper downward move.
EUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless DataEUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless Data
🌐 Macro View: Dollar Regains Strength Amid Uncertainty
EUR/USD remains under selling pressure as the greenback finds renewed strength following midweek weakness. The market is bracing for fresh U.S. jobless claims data, expected to show a slight rise to 235K. A print below 220K could reignite USD demand, while a surprise above 240K may offer a temporary lifeline for the euro.
Amid geopolitical and economic turbulence, the euro continues to underperform as investors shift to the dollar for safety and yield advantage.
📉 Technical Outlook – MMF & Smart Money Perspective
The recent breakdown below 1.1600 confirms the bearish momentum. Based on the MMF (Market Momentum Flow) methodology, price action is currently moving within a controlled distribution structure, suggesting further downside potential.
Key zones identified from H1 structure:
OBS + FVG High Zone (1.1662 – 1.1687): Strong supply zone + volume imbalance.
1.1637: Mid-key level and possible liquidity magnet.
1.1616 – 1.1573: Ideal area for sweeping sell-side liquidity before any sustainable bounce.
If price reclaims 1.1662, intraday bullish correction may be in play. However, as long as 1.1687 holds, bears remain in control.
🧭 Trade Plan for Today
🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.1662 – 1.1687 (FVG + OBS Volume Zone)
SL: 1.1710
TP: 1.1637 → 1.1616 → 1.1590 → 1.1573
✅ Preferred entry zone aligned with high-volume imbalance & MMF rejection pattern.
🟢 BUY ZONE (Scalp Only): 1.1575 – 1.1580 (Sell-side Liquidity Zone)
SL: 1.1550
TP: 1.1612 → 1.1630 → 1.1645
⚠️ Use with caution — only upon clear price reaction at lower liquidity sweep area.
🔍 Strategy Insight
This is a classic scenario of a controlled pullback within a larger bearish structure. Patience is key — let price tap into imbalanced zones before executing. Given today's U.S. data, volatility may spike during the New York session, so risk management is crucial.
💬 What’s Your Take?
Do you expect EUR/USD to retest the 1.1550s zone, or could a surprise from U.S. job data flip the narrative?
👇 Drop your analysis below & follow for more MMF-based setups.
USD/JPY - Triangle Pattern (18.07.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 149.93
2nd Resistance – 150.65
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 17, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is edging back toward the 1.16 – 1.17 range highs after headlines suggesting former U.S. president Donald Trump might try to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print pressured the dollar. Political noise around the Fed’s independence, coupled with a cooling inflation pulse, has pushed market pricing toward a longer policy pause; the pair is hovering near 1.16250 at the time of writing.
Fundamental support also stems from the upcoming 24 July ECB meeting. Governing-Council commentary reveals a split between hawks and would-be doves, yet consensus that euro-area inflation remains above target makes an aggressive rate cut unlikely for now. Meanwhile, subdued U.S. Treasury yields—futures price a 95 % probability of no change this month and only 50 bp of total easing over 12 months—help narrow the U.S.–German 10-year spread to about 150 bp.
Against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. trade tensions and steady inflows into euro-area assets, that narrower spread leaves room for EURUSD to grind toward the 1.1680 target if sentiment stays risk-positive.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16250, SL 1.15950, TP 1.16800
Tata Motors: From Profit Pressure to Growth Potential... Company Overview
* Name: Tata Motors Ltd.
* Industry: Automotive
* Key Segments: Passenger Vehicles (PV), Commercial Vehicles (CV), Electric Vehicles (EV), Jaguar Land Rover (JLR)
* FY25 Milestone: The Automotive business became debt-free
Q4 FY25 Performance Overview
* Net Profit: ₹8,556 crore (Down 51% YoY)
* Reason for Decline:
* High base due to deferred tax benefit in Q4 FY24
* Lower domestic volumes in PV and CV segments
* Reduced operating leverage amid falling demand
* Revenue: Marginal YoY increase (Consolidated revenue at record level for FY25)
* Positive Developments Despite Profit Decline :
* JLR Profitability Improvement
* Profit rose despite slightly lower revenue
* Supported by higher volumes and reduced depreciation
* Debt-Free Automotive Division:
* Major financial milestone for FY25 :
* Record Annual Revenue:
* Highest consolidated revenue in Tata Motors' history
* Future-Focused Investments:
* Capital allocation towards EVs, new product development, and manufacturing capacity
Strategic Growth Drivers – Reasons for Optimism
1. Electric Vehicle (EV) Leadership
* Tata Motors holds a dominant position in India’s EV market
* Plans to launch 10 EV models by 2026
* Battery Gigafactory is expected to begin production in 2026
* Strong alignment with India’s clean mobility goals
2. Expanding Product Portfolio
* Focused on SUV and ₹10–20 lakh price segments
* Upcoming launches:
* Curvv EV
* Harrier EV
* Sierra EV
* Strategy to cater to diverse customer preferences
3. Improving Financial Health
* Targeting 10% EBITDA across PV and EV divisions
* Demerger of CV and PV businesses to streamline operations and unlock value
4. Strong Base in Commercial Vehicles
* Market leader with 37.83% share in EV segment
* CV recovery is expected with infrastructure and rural demand growth
5. Supportive Macroeconomic and Policy Environment
* Government incentives: FAME II, PLI scheme
* EV-friendly policies encouraging domestic manufacturing
* Economic tailwinds: rising disposable income, urbanization, rural penetration
Risks and Challenges Ahead
* Intensifying Competition:
* Pressure from Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, and new players
* Global Geopolitical and Trade Risks:
* US tariffs, material shortages (e.g., rare earths for EVs)
* Domestic Demand Slowdown:
* Inflation and high interest rates are affecting affordability
* Jaguar Land Rover’s Transition Challenges:
* EV transformation complexity
* Global demand volatility
* Production ramp-up hurdles
Conclusion
Tata Motors is at a pivotal juncture. While short-term profitability has taken a hit due to exceptional prior-year gains and cyclical volume pressures, the company’s fundamentals remain strong. Its leadership in EVs, ambitious expansion plans, and a now debt-free automotive business position it for long-term success.
However, realizing this potential depends on:
* Execution of its EV roadmap
* Sustained domestic demand
* Managing global uncertainties
* Staying competitive in an evolving auto landscape
Strategic Verdict:
Short-term caution, long-term confidence.
Tata Motors appears well-poised for a resilient comeback, driven by structural transformation and market-aligned growth strategies.
EUR/USD - Daily Chart (Wedge Breakout) (16.07.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the D1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0956
2nd Support – 1.0625
💡 Fundamental & Sentiment Context
Euro under pressure amid renewed concerns over EU‑US trade friction .
The USD is strengthening, supported by safe‑haven flows amid tariff uncertainties.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 16, 2025 USDJPYEvent to Watch Today:
15:30 EET. USD – Producer Price Index
USDJPY:
USD/JPY has stabilized around 148.900, maintaining upside potential due to:
Interest Rates: The Fed keeps yields elevated (10-year bonds at 4.46%), while the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose policy, keeping real yields negative.
Political Uncertainty: Upcoming elections in Japan and possible fiscal tightening reduce the yen’s appeal.
Dollar Demand: Trade frictions and geopolitical risks drive safe-haven flows into the dollar.
A break above 149.000 could open the path to 149.500. Support at 148.600 remains a critical barrier for the bullish scenario.
Trade Recommendation: BUY 149.000, SL 148.700, TP 149.900
EUR/USD - Wedge Breakout (CPI- Today) 15.07.2025 The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.1741
2nd Resistance – 1.1766
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AVAX/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The AVAX/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 21.77
2nd Resistance – 24.35
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TURBO/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The TURBO/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.005173
2nd Resistance – 0.005994
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Early Week Pullback Ahead of Key Economic ReleasesGold Outlook – 14 July | Early Week Pullback Ahead of Key Economic Releases
🌍 Market Sentiment & Macro Overview
Gold has started the week with a sharp retracement after filling prior liquidity gaps (FVG) from the past two weeks.
This early weakness signals a risk-off tone as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar and geopolitical trade discussions.
This week’s high-impact events include:
📌 US CPI (Inflation Data)
📌 US PPI (Producer Prices)
📌 Unemployment Claims
📌 Retail Sales Figures
These data points will likely set the tone for price action through the second half of the week, with potential for sharp moves in gold.
📉 Technical Snapshot – M30 Chart Structure
Price swept minor liquidity above recent highs
Pulled back by more than $15 from the short-term top
Currently trading below the intraday VPOC (~3358), suggesting short-term bearish momentum
If the selling pressure holds, we may see a move toward:
⚠️ 333x zone — initial liquidity pool
❗ 332x zone — deeper liquidity grab before any bullish reversal
🧭 Trading Plan – Key Zones and Setup
📥 Buy Setup: 3331 – 3329 (Zone of Interest)
Stop Loss: 3325
Target Levels:
TP1: 3335
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3344
TP4: 3350
TP5: 3360 – 3370
✅ A highly reactive zone — ideal for intraday long setups if price sweeps into this area and shows bullish confirmation (e.g., volume spike or rejection wick).
📤 Sell Setup: 3393 – 3395 (Resistance Re-Test)
Stop Loss: 3399
Target Levels:
TP1: 3390
TP2: 3386
TP3: 3382
TP4: 3378
TP5: 3374 – 3370 – 3360
📉 Potential scalp zone if price retests resistance with signs of exhaustion. Monitor closely for bearish structure confirmation.
📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
3358
3368
3374
3394
Support Zones:
3349
3340
3331
3318
These zones remain relevant for both momentum trades and reversion setups.
⚠️ Strategy Considerations
At the time of writing, gold is trading indecisively around the M30 VPOC. No clear breakout has occurred yet.
⏳ Wait for volume confirmation during the London session
🚫 Avoid impulsive entries based on emotions or FOMO
✅ Stick to your risk parameters and let price come to your level
🧠 Summary & Bias
Gold is experiencing an early-week technical correction after recent strength.
The market is in "wait-and-see" mode, with macro drivers likely to dictate direction from mid-week onwards.
📍 Watch the 3331–3329 zone closely — it remains the most attractive level for long setups.
📍 The 3393–3395 zone is a key area to fade strength if price struggles at resistance.
Patience and precision are key this week. Let the market reveal its intention, and trade accordingly.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 14, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure: on Monday the pair slipped to 1.16750 after the European Commission extended its pause on retaliatory tariffs against the United States until 1 August. With no resolution in sight, the trade dispute keeps European exporters on edge and turns the dollar into a safe-haven choice for investors looking to limit risk.
Additional support for the greenback comes from rising real yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate is holding above 4.40 %, locking in a wide spread over German Bunds. That has led futures traders to price in just one 25 bp Federal Reserve rate cut for the rest of the year, reducing the euro’s relative appeal.
Macro data from the euro area offer little relief. German industrial production rose only 0.2 % m/m in May, while the July ZEW expectations index slid back into negative territory. With the ECB having already delivered a June cut and projecting lower inflation ahead, inward capital flows to the eurozone remain subdued.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16750, SL 1.17050, TP 1.16200
GBP/JPY -H1- Channel Breakout (14.07.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 196.70
2nd Support – 195.53
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USD/JPY - H1- Wedge Breakout (07.07.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 148.00
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GBP/USD - H1- Bearish Flag (07.07.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3520
2nd Support – 1.3460
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 11, 2025 USDJPYThe dollar is holding steady at 146.500 against the yen: another rise in US yields and stable demand for safe US assets following comments from the Fed are fueling appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish.
The tariff front exacerbates the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas for “umbrella” tariffs are heightening fears of a trade war, forcing investors to flow into financing currencies. Reuters notes that the yen weakened to 146.400, recording a weekly decline of more than 1%.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: a decline in inflation to 1.8% y/y and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. The divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machine tool orders, industrial production) until July 14 form the fundamental basis for the pair's growth to 147.500 and above, while the risks of correction are limited to the 145.900 zone.
Trading recommendation: BUY 146.500, SL 145.900, TP 147.500
XAG/USD (Silver) - Triangle Breakout (09.07.2025)The XAG/USD (Silver) pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3749
2nd Resistance – 3781
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GBP/AUD - Bearish Flag (10.07.2025)The GBP/AUD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2.0671
2nd Support – 2.0607
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 10, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
GBPUSD:
The British pound remains under pressure amid increased risk-off sentiment linked to new White House statements about additional tariffs from August 1. This is boosting demand for the US dollar as a safe haven and prompts investors to take profits on long GBP positions.
Domestic factors in the UK also have a negative impact: revisions to social spending programs and weak manufacturing PMI and retail sales data signal a slowdown in economic activity. The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at 5.50% until year-end, which limits the pound’s attractiveness for investors.
The current GBP/USD rate is 1.35900. In the absence of positive drivers from the UK economy and persistent demand for the dollar, the pair remains vulnerable to further declines toward 1.3520.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.36000, SL 1.36300, TP 1.35200