Get started

Fundamental-analysis

AUDJPY Long: Buy the Dip into Trendline + Seasonal AUD Surge🔹 Pair: AUD/JPY 🔹 Timeframe: 4H 🔹 Direction: Long 🔹 Status: Retesting Trendline Support 🔹 Entry Zone: 93.20–93.40 (Live Entry Area) ⸻ 📊 Macro & Fundamental Confluence 🇦🇺 AUD – Bullish • Strong Seasonality: Historically bullish May 19 – June 10. • Conditional Score Rise: From 21 → 24 = Positive momentum shift. • Dovish CB, But Risk-On: Supports carry trade flows into AUD. • Macro View: Rebalancing inflation & trend recovery, AUD outperforming. 🇯🇵 JPY – Bearish • BoJ Hawkish Talk, Dovish Action: Delayed inflation targets (to 2027). • Score Flat: Minor rise (11 → 12), showing underperformance. • Risk-On Mood: With VIX under 20, safe-haven demand fading. • Macro Lag: JPY weakest G7 performer year-to-date. 🧠 Confluences Supporting the Trade ✅ Seasonal AUD strength ✅ Fundamental divergence: AUD strong, JPY weak ✅ Risk-on regime (favoring carry trades like AUDJPY) ✅ Trendline respected since April (bullish market structure) ✅ Support zone at 93.00–93.30 area ⸻ 📈 Technical Setup • Entry Zone: 93.20–93.40 • Stop Loss: 92.08 (below structure and ascending trendline) • Take Profit: • TP1: 95.40 (resistance zone) • TP2: 96.00 (supply zone retest) • Risk:Reward: ~1.8 – 2.2 depending on final entry 📌 Execution Notes Watching for candle closure confirmation above 93.50. Break below 92.08 invalidates the bullish bias. This setup combines macro divergence, seasonal strength, and clean 4H market structure. ⸻ 💬 Are you trading AUDJPY this week? Drop your thoughts below ⬇️
Long
by wajahatarif
AUDCAD Long: Riding Aussie Strength vs Weak Loonie 🔹 Pair: AUD/CAD 🔹 Timeframe: 4H 🔹 Direction: Long 🔹 Strategy: Trend Continuation + Macro Confluence 🔹 Trade Active: 📍 0.8945 (CMP) 📊 Fundamental Bias 🇦🇺 AUD – Bullish • Seasonal Surge: Historically strong from May 19 to June 10. • Conditional Score Gain: AUD rose from 21 → 24 (momentum improving). • Macro View: Inflation stabilizing, dovish stance offset by improving sentiment. • VIX < 20: Risk-on conditions favor AUD. 🇨🇦 CAD – Bearish • Flat Conditional Score: No improvement (2 → 2). • Hawkish CB but Weak Data: CPI softening, trade risks persist. • Global Sentiment: Oil stagnation + cautious BoC tone = headwinds for CAD. ⸻ 🧠 Confluence Summary ✅ AUD macro + seasonal strength ✅ CAD remains fundamentally weak ✅ Risk-on supports commodity currencies ✅ 4H trendline support holding ⸻ 🖼️ Technical Setup • Entry: 0.8945 • Stop Loss: 0.8890 (below ascending trendline + support zone) • Take Profit: 0.9036 (prior resistance + TP1) • Risk:Reward: ~1.67 🟠 Optional Target: 0.9045 for extended move. 📌 Outlook I’m bullish on AUDCAD for the week of May 19–23, supported by: • Seasonal patterns • Risk tone • CAD stagnation • Clear trend structure Will look to trail SL as price closes above 0.8975. Clean invalidation below 0.8890. ⸻ 💬 What’s your bias on AUD this week? Drop a comment & let’s discuss 📉📈
Long
by wajahatarif
Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound?Gold Price Volatility: Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound? 💥 Market Outlook: Today’s market is seeing unpredictable movements, with gold making significant drops and then rebounding sharply in the last two days. Are the recent news developments aligning with the price action, or is it just a major coincidence? 🔍 Technical Analysis: Looking at the D1 and H4 charts, you can clearly see the breakdown, but gold quickly bounced back to the 325x area and reacted. The 3254–3256 zone is a key level that holds strong for sellers on both daily and H4 candles. If gold continues to hold below this level, the bearish trend remains strong, and another sharp drop could happen before the weekend. If the 3254–3256 level is broken, the price may push toward the 327x, possibly even the 328x levels. However, this will be dependent on whether this critical support is maintained. Trend Continuation or Reversal? From a technical perspective, gold is still in a downtrend, and the current bounce is likely just a retracement before continuing lower. However, in terms of macro news, the USD is continuously dealing with bad inflation data, affecting the recovery of DXY (USD). The market is very sensitive to trap candles, and there may be false breakouts, so proceed cautiously. There are also some news reports indicating that the US and China have reached a minor détente, but tensions remain around trade restrictions, imports, exports, and the use of rare earth minerals. Things are unpredictable with these two powers. Today, there are updates on tariffs, so keep an eye out! 📊 Key Resistance Levels: 3237 3251 3261 3276 3287 📉 Key Support Levels: 3205 3188 3170 3143 🎯 Trading Plan: 🔵 BUY SCALP: Entry: 3172 – 3170 SL: 3166 TP: 3176 → 3180 → 3184 → 3188 → 3192 → 3196 → 3200 🔵 BUY ZONE: Entry: 3142 – 3140 SL: 3136 TP: 3146 → 3150 → 3154 → 3158 → 3162 → 3170 → 3180 → 3190 🔴 SELL SCALP: Entry: 3160 – 3162 SL: 3166 TP: 3156 → 3152 → 3148 → 3144 → 3140 → 3130 → 3120 🔴 SELL ZONE: Entry: 3276 – 3278 SL: 3282 TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3255 → 3250 → 3240 ⚠️ Risk Management: With strong volatility today, manage your risk carefully. It’s essential to adhere to your TP/SL to protect your account. Stay cautious, as there is a lot of unpredictability in the market with the upcoming news. Conclusion: Given the unpredictability of the market and geopolitical tensions, it’s wise to trade with caution today. Watch the critical support and resistance levels closely and stay flexible, adapting your strategy based on how the market evolves. 📣 Stay tuned for more updates and trade smart!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
3
SRx Health (SRXH): Financial Analysis and Merger with BTTRPre-Merger Financial Overview (Better Choice Company) Better Choice Company Inc. – renamed SRx Health Solutions Inc. prior to the merger – focused on pet nutrition and wellness products (Halo brand). In 2024, the company reported net revenues of $34.97 million, down from $38.59 million in 2023. Despite the decline in revenue (-9%), gross profitability improved: gross margin rose to 37% in 2024, with gross profit of ~$12.99 million (compared to 30% in 2023, gross profit ~$11.80 million). The drastic reduction in operating costs ($18.96 million in 2024 vs. $32.98 million in 2023) has significantly reduced operating losses. In fact, the net loss for the 2024 financial year was almost eliminated at $0.17 million (compared to a heavy loss of $22.77 million in 2023). This reversal is partly due to extraordinary items: in 2024, Better Choice recorded a gain of $6.2 million from the extinguishment of debts and liabilities, in addition to avoiding goodwill impairment charges that had weighed on the balance sheet by ~$8.5 million in 2023. On an adjusted basis, 2024 adjusted EBITDA remained negative at approximately $1.9 million, but was a significant improvement (≈78% lower) compared to the EBITDA loss of approximately $8.6 million in the previous year. Earnings per share (EPS) also decreased from $(32.29)$ to $(0.10)$ due to lower liabilities and an increase in the average number of shares (from ~705,000 to ~1.615 million after reverse stock splits and new issuances). As of December 31, 2024, the company had $3.1 million in cash and had used approximately $2.4 million of its revolving credit facility (limited remaining capacity). Working capital was positive (~$7.9 million at the end of 2024, according to management) thanks to the reduction in short-term debt during the year. Overall, Better Choice showed signs of a turnaround in 2024: declining revenue but an improved channel mix (closure of the unprofitable direct-to-consumer channel), growing gross margins, and costs under control, with four consecutive quarters of gross margin improvement and three consecutive quarters of reduced losses. SRx Health Solutions (Canada) Pre-Merger Data SRx Health Solutions Inc. – the company acquired by Better Choice – is an integrated specialty healthcare services provider in Canada with a different but complementary business model. Prior to the merger, SRx operated one of Canada's largest specialty pharmacy networks, with 35 active pharmacies, 40 specialty infusion clinics, 4 clinical trial centers, and 2 pharmaceutical distribution centers. This platform enabled it to generate annual revenues of C$161.5 million in 2023, with adjusted EBITDA of C$11.4 million (IFRS). These volumes correspond to approximately $120 million in revenue and ~$8.5 million in EBITDA on a pro forma basis in US dollars, indicating operating profitability of around 7% on revenue. Better Choice management highlighted that SRx has shown consistent revenue and cash flow growth in recent years, building its network from 2013 to the present. According to the announcement, SRx has achieved steady growth and positive margins by focusing on high-value segments (specialty drugs and therapies) under the leadership of founder and CEO Adesh Vora, a pharmacist with 24 years of experience in the healthcare industry. It should be noted that SRx's financial statements were prepared in accordance with IFRS and are being converted to US GAAP post-merger; accounting differences may arise, but the pro-forma figures provided give an order of magnitude of SRx's pre-acquisition operations. In summary, prior to the merger, SRx Health was a larger business than Better Choice in terms of revenue (approximately four times larger) and had positive margins, operating in a market—the Canadian specialty pharma market—estimated to be growing strongly (∼11% CAGR through 2030). This context motivated the merger of the two companies, combining SRx's solid recurring revenue base with Better Choice's pet activities. Better Choice – SRx Health Merger: Strategic Motivations and Synergies The merger between Better Choice and SRx Health Solutions, announced in September 2024 and completed in April 2025, was presented as a transformative strategic operation. The stated goal is to create a leading global health and wellness company across multiple sectors, offering products and solutions for pets, people, and families in a single integrated group. In practice, the new SRx Health Solutions Inc. combines the pet health & nutrition sector (pet food and wellness products, Halo brand) with the specialty healthcare sector for human patients (specialty pharmacies, clinics, and advanced healthcare services). This diversification aims to capitalize on converging trends: on the one hand, the growing “humanization” of pets and consumer focus on pet health (Better Choice's core business), and on the other, the increasing demand for specialty therapies, highly complex drugs, and personalized healthcare services in Canada (SRx's core business). Michael Young, Chairman of Better Choice, described the transaction as “a transformative opportunity that positions Better Choice as a global leader in the health and wellness industry.” He praised the SRx team's work in building their healthcare network and highlighted that, once combined, there are immediate operational and growth synergies estimated at over $1.7 million that the group expects to realize quickly. These synergies are expected to come from the integration of infrastructure and distribution networks, as well as the implementation of cross-growth strategies between the two entities. For example, SRx could support the distribution of Halo products in new markets (Canada and pharmaceutical channels) and, conversely, Better Choice could introduce SRx services/solutions in the US market or online, leveraging its digital presence. In addition, the merger strengthens the capital structure: Better Choice, which was a micro-cap with limited resources, gains a larger, more capitalized business, while SRx gains access to the US capital market through its NYSE American listing (without going through a traditional IPO). From an organizational standpoint, SRx founder Adesh A. Vora will assume the role of CEO of the new SRx Health Solutions Inc., bringing his extensive experience in the pharmacy sector, while former Better Choice CEO Kent Cunningham will lead the Halo (pet) business unit within the group. The combined board of directors includes five members from both companies to balance expertise (Vora is also appointed Chairman). In summary, the strategic rationale for the merger lies in the creation of a 360° wellness player with complementary assets and cross-selling opportunities, capable of competing in both the premium pet and specialized healthcare markets. The transaction was approved by a large majority of Better Choice shareholders in March 2025 (over 71% of voting shares, with authorization to issue ~30 million new shares for the acquisition), a sign of confidence in the prospects outlined by management. Synergies and prospects: According to official statements, the new combined group has a significantly strengthened financial profile. On a pro-forma basis, in the first six months of 2024, the two companies would have totaled ~$95 million in combined revenues. Projections for 2025 indicate combined revenues of over $270 million and EBITDA of over $10 million, a significant jump from Better Choice's historical standalone figures. If achieved, these targets would imply significant growth driven by the contribution of SRx (which alone would account for the majority of revenues) and the launch of joint initiatives. The prospective EBITDA margin would still be around 4% of revenues, indicating that management is primarily focused on expanding business volume while maintaining modest margins, likely due to growing investments and integration. Initial cost synergies ($1.7 million) could slightly improve profitability in the short term, while further growth synergies (e.g., pet/pharma cross-selling, geographic expansion) could impact sales and margins in the medium term. On the operational side, SRx brings expertise in the regulated healthcare sector, relationships with public authorities (e.g., healthcare reimbursements in Canada), and a technology and logistics-distribution platform for specialty drugs. Better Choice contributes an established consumer brand in holistic pet food and developed international e-commerce and retail channels (Amazon, Chewy, distribution in Asia, etc., as evidenced by APAC growth of +9% in 2024). SRx Health Solutions' new stated mission is to “become the most innovative wellness company” by investing in product innovation and digital initiatives to simplify access to care (as per the May 2025 investor presentation). The merger also involves a corporate name change: as of April 30, 2025, Better Choice officially assumed the name SRx Health Solutions Inc. and its stock ticker changed from “BTTR” to “SRXH,” reflecting its new multi-sector focus. In parallel, the company has taken steps to strengthen its financial structure: concurrently with the closing, a $8.8 million private placement was completed with an institutional investor at a price of $2.18 per share (above the last previous market price). This investment provided immediate liquidity of approximately $8 million (before expenses) and signals of confidence from new shareholders. In addition, SRx Health (the Canadian part) had improved its financial standing by previously converting $4 million of debt into equity (a transaction announced in early 2024) in order to enter the merger with strengthened working capital. Overall, therefore, the transaction was motivated by industrial logic of diversification and scale, supported by financial considerations (capital strengthening and access to capital) and well received at the shareholders' meeting. The effective integration of the businesses and the realization of the promised synergies now remain to be accomplished, in a market environment that presents growth opportunities (expanding pet and specialty pharma sectors) but also significant competitive challenges. Competitive Comparison and Industry Benchmark From an industry perspective, SRx Health Solutions Inc. is an atypical entity in that it operates in both the Healthcare sector (pharmacies, clinics, healthcare services) and the Consumer Pet Care sector. Officially, the company is classified in the healthcare sector (under “Drug Manufacturers/General,” although distribution and services are its main activities). It is therefore useful to assess SRXH's position in relation to two competitive areas: competitors in the human health market (specialty pharma/health services) and players in the pet food/wellness market. Specialty pharmacy/healthcare services sector: In Canada, the specialty pharmacy market is fragmented but has large players such as the specialty divisions of Shoppers Drug Mart (Loblaw) and the McKesson Canada network, as well as independent operators. With ~$120 million in revenues (pro-forma 2023), SRx is a small-to-medium-sized operator compared to national leaders, but is one of the few with a widespread presence in all 10 Canadian provinces. Its focus on highly complex drugs and infusions places it in a niche with relatively high barriers to entry (given the need for clinical expertise, special licenses, and cold chain logistics management for biological drugs, etc.). The Canadian specialty drug market is rapidly expanding (valued at ~$7.4 billion US$ in 2024, expected to reach ~$13.9 billion by 2030), which provides SRx with a favorable tailwind for organic growth. In terms of profitability, more mature players in the healthcare sector often report double-digit EBITDA margins; SRxH forecasts an EBITDA margin of ~3-4% for 2025, indicating that there is room for improvement as operations are integrated and economies of scale are realized. Compared to healthcare industry financial benchmarks, SRx currently has low net margins (historically, Better Choice was loss-making and SRx Canada presumably had modest net profits) and low capitalization, factors that could be weaknesses when compared to giants such as CVS Health, Walgreens, or even Canadian chains backed by large groups, which enjoy ample financial resources and lower capital costs. On the other hand, SRx may have the flexibility of a more agile player dedicated exclusively to the specialist segment, without the legacy of generalist retail networks; its vertical integration (clinics + pharmacy + clinical trials) is a distinctive feature compared to many competitors focused solely on drug distribution. Pet food & wellness sector: SRxH's Halo business unit operates in the premium pet food market, competing with established brands such as Blue Buffalo (General Mills), Royal Canin (Mars), Hill's (Colgate-Palmolive) and other natural/holistic brands. This is a highly competitive but growing market, driven by premiumization and higher per capita spending on pets. With ~$35 million in annual revenue, Halo is small compared to global leaders (just think that the pet care divisions of giants such as Nestlé and Mars have revenues in the tens of billions). Even compared to focused rivals such as Petco Health & Wellness (WOOF) – a US chain that has integrated retail and veterinary services – Halo is small (Petco has annual revenues of ≈$4 billion). However, Halo has built a loyal niche in the holistic/vegan segment and benefits from a strong presence in e-commerce (Amazon, Chewy), where it has recorded significant growth (+32% on Chewy/Amazon in Q4 2024). The competitive challenge in pet food is mainly distribution (shelf space in pet and grocery chains) and marketing to differentiate the brand – areas where the injection of capital and greater visibility as part of SRxH could help. A potential competitive advantage for SRxH is its integrated “family-pet” offering: few operators can address the well-being of people and their animals at the same time. This innovative approach could attract a segment of consumers who are sensitive to holistic solutions for the whole family (e.g., health programs involving both human and animal patients). However, it is equally true that unified brand communication will need to avoid confusion: SRx Health will need to clearly explain its multi-business identity so as not to dilute the Halo brand equity in pet shops or SRx's credibility with clinicians and patients. Relative Strengths and Weaknesses. Below I summarize the main competitive strengths and weaknesses of SRx Health Solutions Inc. in the sector context: Strengths Complementary Diversification: Integrated business on two growing fronts – specialty healthcare and pet wellness – with cross-selling opportunities and mitigation of sector risks. Position in Expanding Markets: Presence in the Canadian specialty pharma market (CAGR ~11%) and premium pet care (global growth trend thanks to pet humanization). Extensive Operating Network: SRx's infrastructure of 35 pharmacies and 40 clinics across Canada – difficult for competitors to replicate quickly – combined with an international digital and distribution platform for pets. Improved Operating Performance: Better Choice's recent track record of improving margins and reducing losses, indicating the effectiveness of restructuring initiatives; SRx already profitable at the operating level (positive EBITDA) prior to the merger. Management and Expertise: Management team enriched by Adesh Vora's 20 years of experience in the pharmacy sector and Better Choice's expertise in pet digital marketing; renewed governance with representatives from both sides of the business. Refinanced Financial Structure: Reduction of Better Choice's legacy debt (extinction of $6.2 million in debt in 2024) and new capital raised ($8.8 million) providing liquidity for investment and growth, improving the financial profile in the short term. Weaknesses: Small Size vs. Big Players: Pro-forma revenue of ~$120 million represents a marginal share in the target markets (<<1%); smaller scale means less bargaining power with suppliers and lower economies of scale compared to giants such as CVS, Nestlé Purina, Mars, etc. Low Profitability and History of Losses: Expected EBITDA margin of ~4%, well below the industry average; net margin has been negative or slim to date. The new group's profitability is yet to be established and integration could initially generate costs. High Dilution and Low Capitalization: The transaction diluted the original shareholders (85% of the new company belongs to SRx shareholders) and the free float remains limited. With a market cap of only ~$15–20M, SRXH risks low visibility among institutional investors, high volatility, and difficulty raising additional capital in the stock market. Complexity of Integration: Merging a US pet retail/CPG company with a Canadian healthcare services company poses operational, cultural, and regulatory challenges. Synergies are not guaranteed if the two divisions remain too distinct; IT integration, logistics, and coordination of very different teams will be necessary. Focus and Brand Clarity: Risk of strategic dispersion: covering both the veterinary/pet and human healthcare sectors simultaneously could make it difficult to communicate a clear identity. Rebranding could confuse customers (e.g., veterinarians vs. doctors vs. pet consumers) if not managed carefully. Regulatory and Local Market Risks: The healthcare business is concentrated in Canada, subject to stringent regulation and dependent on public reimbursements; any policy changes could impact SRx. The pet segment operates in a highly competitive consumer market that is sensitive to pet owner preferences (where very large brands invest heavily in marketing). Any contraction in discretionary spending (e.g., recession) could affect premium pet sales. Conclusions : SRx Health Solutions (SRXH) emerges from the merger as a renewed and multifaceted company with financial indicators that differ significantly from Better Choice's past. Pre-merger financial data highlights Better Choice's turnaround in 2024 (drastic reduction in losses, improved adjusted EBITDA) and SRx's strength in Canada (stable and positive revenues, extensive infrastructure). Following the merger, the group has high growth potential (expected 2025 revenue three times higher than the sum of the previous companies, new business lines) but will need to demonstrate to the market that it can successfully integrate operations to translate that revenue into tangible profits. The current market valuation reflects the risks and dilution, as shown by SRXH's share price below the $1 threshold. The next few quarters will be crucial: the publication of the post-merger consolidated results and the execution of synergies will clarify whether SRx Health can realize the vision of a “global wellness company” outlined by management. Investors will be watching the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in both segments and improve margins as it moves toward net profitability. A clear communication plan and strategic focus will also be crucial to leverage the company's distinctive strengths without diluting their value. Ultimately, SRx Health (SRXH) represents a unique case of cross-pollination between the pet and healthcare sectors, with financial metrics to be rebuilt post-merger but with interesting market opportunities if it can consolidate its position and convince stakeholders of the sustainability of its new business model. Sources : Official SEC documents (10-K 2024 and 10-Q1 2025) and company press releases; d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net; IR presentations and GlobeNewswire; globenewswire. com; d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net; industry market data and financial websites (Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, FMP) for quotes and comparisons; stockanalysis.com; nasdaq.com; databridgemarketresearch.com.
AMEX:SRXHLong
by J_B_
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 16, 2025 GBPUSDU.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as the cost of services fell the most since 2009. The Bureau of Labour Statistics on Thursday released data that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4 per cent in April, down from 2.7 per cent previously. This figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. In addition, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 10 May were 229 thousand, compared to the previous week's 229 thousand (revised from 228 thousand). This value was in line with initial estimates. Swap markets priced in the first Fed rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting and expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year. Some analysts believe policymakers may wait until December. Favourable UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data suggests the UK's economic health is robust, dampening hopes of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE). This, in turn, provides some support for the British pound against the US dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3350, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3550
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD - Triangle Formation (16.05.2025)The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.1321 2nd Resistance – 1.1376 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
16
BITCOIN BTC Is Entering Into The Correction Read Caption Bitcoin Chart Analysis: Potential Correction Incoming In my opinion, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of entering a correction phase. The price is approaching its previous all-time high (ATH), and historically, such levels often act as strong resistance. With the market exhibiting signs of exhaustion and profit-taking behavior, a short-term pullback or consolidation could be expected before any further bullish continuation. --- Would you like a more technical version with indicators (like RSI, MACD, or Fibonacci levels), or a visual chart to accompany
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by SadarExplore
USD/JPY - Trendline Breakout (14.05.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 145.34 2nd Support – 143.81 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
29
AUD/CHF - Trendline Breakout (15.05.2025)The AUD/CHF Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.5338 2nd Support – 0.5308 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (15.05.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1085 2nd Support – 1.1030 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
16
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 15, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is holding near 1.12000 in Thursday's Asian session, recovering the day's losses as the euro (EUR) gains momentum ahead of the preliminary Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) report for Q1 2025 to be released later in the day. The euro is being bolstered by growing confidence in its role as a reserve currency. Analysts at Capital Economics noted that the single currency is now in its strongest position in years and is closing the gap with the US dollar (USD) in global reserves. This shift is partly due to the policies of US President Donald Trump, which are seen as undermining the traditional appeal of the USD as a “safe-haven currency”. Further boosting the euro's reserve status was Germany's move to loosen fiscal restraints to boost defense and government spending, sparking additional demand for the currency. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to emphasize the need for further interest rate cuts amid growing confidence that U.S. tariff measures will not significantly boost inflation in the eurozone. While interest rate cuts usually have a negative impact on the euro, the currency has so far remained resilient. EUR/USD is also finding support from a softer US Dollar as markets remain cautious amid continued, albeit slightly diminished, trade uncertainty. Attention now turns to upcoming US data releases, including retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Adding to the broader context, speculation is growing that Washington may favor a weaker dollar to boost its trade competitiveness. The Trump administration has argued that an overvalued dollar puts U.S. exporters at a disadvantage against competitors with weaker currencies. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.11900, SL 1.11400, TP 1.12600
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Is $3000 the Next Stop for Gold? Double Top Formation in Play!Is $3000 the Next Stop for Gold? Double Top Formation in Play! Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal as it forms a Double Top pattern on the daily chart. After hitting an all-time high near $3,500, the metal has entered a sharp correction phase and is now hovering dangerously close to key psychological support at $3,200. Technical Analysis Breakdown: A clear Double Top pattern is forming on the Daily (D1) chart, with two peaks near the same resistance level — a classical bearish signal indicating bullish exhaustion. If today’s daily candle closes below the $3,200 level, we could see a rapid decline toward $3,000 in the short to medium term. The neckline for this pattern aligns with the critical support zone between 3196–3200, which is the key area to monitor for potential breakdown confirmation. What’s the Smart Money Doing? Investors are currently pulling out of gold and rotating into higher-risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies, looking for higher yields and growth potential. This shift in investment suggests that the current sell-off might not just be a technical correction, but also a sign of changing macro sentiment — particularly if the Fed continues with a hawkish stance and delays rate cuts. Suggested Trade Scenarios: 🔻 If Daily Close is Below $3,200: High probability sell setup based on the Double Top pattern Potential downside targets: 3120 → 3050 → 3000 🔺 If Price Holds Above $3,200 and Bounces: Watch for a retracement to 3250–3278 for potential reversal signals Short-term BUY scalp towards 3300–3320 with a tight SL below 3190 What to Watch This Week: Keep an eye on key US economic data, including CPI, PPI, and a Fed Chair speech, which could cause significant volatility. The market is highly reactive right now — avoid emotional trades and wait for clear confirmation from the charts. Risk management is essential, especially during these uncertain times. Final Thoughts: The Double Top pattern on Gold is becoming a significant technical signal for a potential trend reversal. A confirmed break below $3,200 could open the door for a deeper correction toward $3,000. 📣 Stay connected with AD for more real-time updates, technical insights, and trading setups during every market session.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
GOLD XAU-USD CORRECTION COMPLETE REALLY TOWARD UP $3400 0PEN XAUUSD continues to trade within a clearly defined bullish channel, showing strong adherence to upward trendlines and key support levels. Recent price action confirms the ongoing strength of bullish momentum, with higher highs and higher lows reinforcing the prevailing trend. Technical indicators, including moving averages and RSI, remain aligned with buyers, while macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and global risk sentiment further support the upside narrative. As the precious metal steadily advances, the $3400 level emerges as a key psychological and technical target, suggesting that, barring significant shifts in market dynamics, gold may continue its trajectory towards new highs in the medium term."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen against its US counterpart for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and reacted weakly to the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was largely unchanged. Aggressive comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida on Tuesday keep the door open for further policy normalisation and continue to serve as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be threatened by weaker US consumer inflation data released on Tuesday, which raised the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least twice this year. This is seen as another factor putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, optimism about a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China continues to keep the market upbeat. This may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the diverging policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed indicate that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding Yen lies to the upside and support the prospects of further downside for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any market-relevant economic data from the US, traders will focus on speeches from influential FOMC members. In addition, broader risk sentiment may give the currency pair some momentum. Trading recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 147.30, TP 146.10
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 13, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index 18:00 EET. USD - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks The GBP/USD pair is climbing towards 1.3195 in the early European session on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said last week that he would continue to impose new 10% tariffs on imports of most British goods, but would reduce higher tariffs on imports of British cars, steel and aluminium. These positive developments related to the US-UK trade deal are fuelling cable prices. In addition, gradual and cautious policy easing by the Bank of England is helping to boost the Pound Sterling. The UK central bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a split decision last week and said the risks to growth posed by Trump's global trade war did not derail its plan for cautious policy easing. The Bank of England estimates the UK economy will grow by 1 per cent, up from the 0.75 per cent forecast at its February meeting. Traders await the release of the US consumer price index (CPI) for April, due later on Tuesday. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3225, SL 1.3125, TP 1.3425
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD Price Outlook – Bearish Setup in Play ??Asset Overview The chart represents a price action analysis with support and resistance zones, along with EMA indicators (50 and 200), likely on a 4H or 1H timeframe. Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: ~3,400 to 3,450 First Support Zone: ~3,230 to 3,250 Second Support Zone: ~3,090 to 3,130 Indicators EMA 50 (Red): Currently around 3,340, acting as dynamic resistance. EMA 200 (Blue): Positioned near 3,232, reinforcing the first support zone. Price Action Insight Price had a strong uptrend, peaking above 3,440 before pulling back. A lower high may be forming, suggesting possible trend exhaustion. The current bounce appears to be a retracement back toward resistance or EMA 50. Projected Move (As Illustrated on Chart) Short-term bullish move into the resistance zone (~3,400–3,450). Failure to break above resistance leads to sharp rejection. Price retraces to first support zone (aligned with EMA 200). If support fails, deeper drop expected toward the lower support zone (~3,100). Strategic Notes 📉 Bearish Bias if price fails to break above resistance. 🔍 Watch for bearish candlestick patterns or divergences near resistance. 🛡️ First support aligns with EMA 200, making it a critical level for bulls to defend. 🔻 Breakdown below 3,230 opens room for larger correction to 3,100–3,090. Conclusion Currently, the chart suggests a potential short opportunity if price confirms rejection at resistance. The EMA cross structure remains bullish long-term, but momentum is weakening, and failure to reclaim highs could shift sentiment bearish in the short to mid-term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
3
EURNZD Bearish Reversal Confirmed: Break and Retest Below Key Su🧠 Market Context & Structure: Trend Analysis: The pair is currently in a bearish structure. This is evident from lower highs and lower lows forming after a failed bullish breakout attempt. Key Zone: A supply zone (highlighted in red) around 1.90198 – 1.90750 has acted as a strong resistance. Price was rejected here after retesting. Break of Structure (BoS): A clear bearish breakout below the ascending trendline and the horizontal support confirms a shift in sentiment. 📉 Indicators & Confluences: EMA Analysis: EMA 50 (red): 1.90757 EMA 200 (blue): 1.90728 Price is trading below both EMAs, which confirms bearish momentum. Also, a bearish EMA crossover (50 crossing below 200) may be forming or has just occurred — a death cross, which further supports downside bias. 🎯 Trade Setup Breakdown (Bearish Bias): Entry: Around 1.89760 (current price) Stop Loss: Above the supply zone (~1.9020 - 1.9070) Take Profit Target: Around 1.86035 (highlighted in green), aligning with previous demand zone or measured move. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Estimated at ~3:1, making this a favorable setup. 🔽 Technical Patterns: Bear Flag / Rising Wedge: The broken ascending pattern suggests a bearish continuation. Retest Confirmation: Price retested the broken structure before continuing down — classic bearish retest behavior. ✅ Conclusion: This is a textbook bearish setup supported by: A failed breakout and structure shift Resistance at a key supply zone Break and retest of support Price under both EMAs (bearish confirmation) 📌 Bias: Bearish 📌 Invalidation Level: Close above 1.9075 📌 Next Support Zone: 1.8600–1.8550 range
Short
by MrStellanSight
8
AUDJPY Trade Setup (Bullish Bias)🔥 Setup Summary: Item Details Bias: ✅ Bullish Reasoning: - Fundamentals strong (expectation no interest rate cuts + CPI bullish) - JPY weak + overbought COT - Exogenous: AUD strengthening - Seasonality bearish short-term BUT medium-term bias bullish Primary Entry: 🔑 92.30 (Buy Zone) Dip Buy Zone: 🔄 91.80 – 92.00 (0.5–0.618 Fib retrace) Stop Loss: 🚫 90.54 (below structure + 0.786 Fib) Take Profit 1: 🎯 94.15 (below last swing high) Take Profit 2: 🎯 95.00+ (extended target for trend continuation) Risk:Reward: ~1:3+ (Entry at 92.3 / TP at 94.15–95.00)
Long
by wajahatarif
GOLD Weekly Open Analysis:Gap Down Sparks Fresh Bearish Momentum🟠 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Weekly Open Analysis: Gap Down Sparks Fresh Bearish Momentum Gold opens the week with a sharp gap-down, reflecting a cooling of global tensions and softer tones in tariff negotiations over the weekend. With both geopolitical risks and trade conflicts showing signs of de-escalation, investors quickly shifted away from safe-haven demand, leading to immediate downside pressure in early Asia hours. 🔍 Market Context: The price action remains within a bearish parallel channel on the M30 timeframe. A visible GAP ZONE has formed between $3326 – $3328, which now acts as a key resistance area to watch for a potential retest. This week brings critical US economic data including CPI, PPI, and a Fed speech, all of which could drive large volatility. The market is likely to remain extremely sensitive to any shifts in: US inflation expectations FED forward guidance Further headlines on tariffs or geopolitical escalations (Russia–Ukraine, India–Pakistan) 🔧 Trading Strategy for Today (13/05/2025): Bias: Short-term bearish unless clear reversal signs appear. Primary focus: Sell the rally, especially near key resistance zones. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels: $3288 $3308 $3326–$3328 (Gap Fill Zone) 🔻 Key Support Levels: $3262 $3246 $3236 $3200 🎯 Trade Ideas: 🔵 BUY ZONE: Entry: $3246 – $3244 SL: $3240 TPs: $3250 → $3254 → $3258 → $3262 → $3266 → $3270 → $3280 Valid only if buyers show strong defense at key support zones. 🔴 SELL ZONE (Main): Entry: $3326 – $3328 SL: $3332 TPs: $3322 → $3318 → $3314 → $3310 → $3305 → $3300 🔴 SELL SCALP (Early Intraday): Entry: $3306 – $3308 SL: $3312 TPs: $3300 → $3296 → $3290 → $3286 → $3282 → $3278 → $3270 ⚠️ Key Reminders: Volatility is expected to remain high throughout the week due to macro events and shifting risk sentiment. Trade with discipline — stick to your TP/SL and avoid emotional entries. Wait for confirmation at your planned levels. Let the market come to you. 📣 Final Note: This week is packed with catalysts. Patience and precision will define successful trades. Follow this account for real-time updates as the market reacts to US CPI and Fed commentary.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 12, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is retreating from the gains made in the previous session, trading near 1.12400 in Monday's Asian session. The Euro (EUR) has been under pressure since European Central Bank (ECB) official Olli Rehn said last week that the ECB may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting, provided that upcoming forecasts confirm a continued trend of disinflation and slowing economic growth. Despite this, EUR/USD found some support thanks to optimism surrounding the trade talks between the US and China that took place in Geneva. Both sides reported “substantial progress” after two days of talks aimed at de-escalating the ongoing trade dispute. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called the talks an “important first step” in stabilizing bilateral relations, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed his sentiment, noting significant progress. Markets are now awaiting Washington's response to the European Commission's proposed countermeasures against U.S. tariffs. On Thursday, the Commission launched a public consultation that outlined potential tariffs on up to 95 billion euros worth of imports from the U.S. if trade talks break down. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have noted the risk of stagflation, and Fed Chairman Michael Barr has warned that higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, leading to higher inflation, lower growth and higher unemployment. Investors remain cautious as further escalation of trade tensions could pose serious problems for the US economy. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.12300, SL 1.11900, TP 1.13000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Friday Volatility – Liquidity SweepsGold Friday Volatility – Liquidity Sweeps & Potential Channel Break Ahead Gold kicked off Friday with intense volatility, triggering sweeping liquidity grabs during the Asian session. Price dropped aggressively into the 327x region, clearing stop zones and vacuuming liquidity — only to quickly rebound and fill the imbalance above. This classic FVG (Fair Value Gap) behavior was especially visible on the M30 timeframe, as price repeatedly left behind inefficient zones and promptly returned to fill them. Volatility remains elevated — and traders should proceed with caution. 📉 Technical Context – End of the Downtrend? Since Thursday, gold has been trading in a clean descending parallel channel, respecting lower highs and pushing downward. However, late in the Asian session today, a bullish momentum surge appears to be testing the upper boundary of this channel. We are now watching the 3324 level very closely. A confirmed breakout above this zone — with candle closure outside the trendline — would suggest a structure shift and open the door for BUY setups on the retest. Until then, we observe. Let price confirm. We trade the reaction, not the assumption. 🌍 Macro Risk – Trade Tensions & Weekend Volatility The market remains extremely reactive to: Geopolitical risks: Military tensions are still simmering. US–China tariff discussions: President Trump is expected to make remarks on tariff policy. Any surprise here could heavily impact USD and gold. ⚠️ Liquidity sweeps are common on Fridays — especially into London and NY sessions — so risk management is critical today. 📌 Key Technical Levels to Watch 🔺 Resistance: 3345 → 3364 → 3395 🔻 Support: 3280 → 3270 → 3256 → 3244 → 3225 The 3324 and 3366 zones are particularly critical. If price closes firmly above these zones, bullish continuation becomes more likely. If price gets rejected, we stay within range and look for sell opportunities. 🎯 Trade Plan – Friday, May 10 🟢 BUY ZONE Entry: 3280 – 3278 SL: 3274 TPs: 3285 → 3290 → 3295 → 3300 → 3305 → 3310 → 3320 🔴 SELL ZONE Entry: 3364 – 3366 SL: 3370 TPs: 3360 → 3356 → 3352 → 3348 → 3344 → 3340 → 3330 🧠 Final Thoughts: Friday often delivers unexpected liquidity traps. With news expected from the White House and technical structure on the verge of a break, this session could offer both risk and reward — if approached with discipline. ✅ Use clear levels. ✅ Respect TP/SL. ✅ Stay sharp as NY volume enters. 📣 Let’s end the week strong. Drop your charts and ideas below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 9, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses part of the previous day's correction from a one-week high. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) March meeting showed that the central bank remains open to further tightening if the economic and price outlook persists. This, along with a rebound in safe-haven demand, is lending support to the Japanese Yen, which, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling, is keeping the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 round figure. Optimism over the start of trade talks between the US and China, which will take place this week in Switzerland, is fading rather quickly amid uncertainty over how a new deal between the world's two largest economies might be structured. In addition, US President Donald Trump has denied that he will reduce tariffs against China, dampening hopes of a speedy resolution to the trade war between the world's two largest economies. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks kept investors on edge and proved to be the key factor that influenced the yen's growth amid the general weakening of the dollar. Trading recommendation: SELL 145.80, SL 146.00, TP 144.90
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAU/USD - Fed warns of Economic UncertaintyThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bullish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 3473 2nd Resistance – 3519 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
24