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Newmont Corp | NEM | Long at $48.00While gold prices have soared recently, gold mining stocks have lagged. Newmont Corp NYSE:NEM , the world's largest gold mining corporation, may be undervalued if the miners take off to catch up to the gold demand/price. Currently sitting near $48.00 and at a historical moving average that it will need to break to show a true trend reversal, NYSE:NEM is in a personal buy zone. Now, the price may break down at the simple moving average and test the patience of shareholders, but the long game may benefit those who can tolerate the volatility. Target #1 = $57.00 Target #2 = $71.00
NYSE:NEMLong
by WorthlessViews
XAUUSD - Is the gold bullish trend over?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the four-hour timeframe, above the EMA200 and EMA50. We should wait for consolidation or not above the drawn trend line to determine the future path of gold, which can be entered after its failure in the formed line, and on the other hand, if gold corrects towards the demand zone, it can be purchased in the short term with appropriate risk-reward. Over the past week, the gold market moved within a narrow, calm range and showed little reaction to encouraging inflation data—until geopolitical developments once again shifted the landscape. Heightened tensions in the Middle East brought safe-haven demand back to the forefront of traders’ minds. Following initial reports of regional unrest, gold quickly climbed from $3,324 to a weekly high of $3,377. Although the price saw a brief correction down to around $3,345, it resumed its upward momentum and opened Thursday’s trading session just one dollar below the symbolic $3,400 mark. Rich Checkan, President and CEO of Asset Strategies International, commented on these recent geopolitical developments, stating: “The market’s direction is clear: it’s upward. With tensions rising following Israel’s attack on Iran, there’s no doubt gold will continue its climb next week.” Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com, also pointed to rising risks both domestically and globally: “Gold is on an upward path. Domestic unrest in the U.S., escalating conflict in the Middle East, broad selling of the U.S. dollar by other countries, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady—all support gold’s rise.” Meanwhile, Daniel Pavilonis, senior broker at RJO Futures, analyzed the simultaneous reactions of gold and oil amid the recent Middle East tensions, looking for clues on their future direction. He explained: “Oil’s behavior can serve as an indicator for gold, as both are seen as inflation hedges and are sensitive to bond yields.” Surprised that gold hasn’t yet reclaimed its April highs, Pavilonis emphasized: “If tensions escalate further, we could see additional gains. But if Iran moves toward negotiations or a truce, gold could remain elevated but range-bound, similar to the past two months. Breaking previous highs would require a stronger catalyst and a more significant worsening of the crisis.” He noted that while geopolitical tensions are currently the primary driver of gold’s strength, such rallies are typically short-lived. Pavilonis added: “We saw a similar pattern last April—gold and oil spiked sharply but quickly corrected. Back then, trade war concerns with China persisted, inflation rates had fallen noticeably, and the initial supportive factors for gold gradually faded. Now, once again, a fresh geopolitical shock has emerged that may temporarily drive gold higher.” After a week where market attention focused mainly on U.S. inflation data, investors’ focus in the coming days will shift to central bank policy decisions and potential signals regarding the future path of interest rates. The trading week begins Monday with the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an early view of industrial activity in New York. That same day, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision, potentially setting a new tone for Asian markets and the yen’s value. On Tuesday, U.S. May retail sales data will be published—a key indicator of consumer strength. Signs of weakness could bolster market expectations for a rate cut. Wednesday will be the pivotal day, as the Federal Reserve reveals its rate decision. While markets have fully priced in a pause in tightening, attention will focus on Jerome Powell’s remarks for any hints of rate cuts in the coming months. Also on Wednesday, May housing starts data and weekly jobless claims will be released. With U.S. markets closed Thursday for Juneteenth, the spotlight will shift to monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, both of which could impact currency market volatility. The week wraps up Friday with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, a leading gauge closely watched by traders to assess the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. Northeast.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
DXY OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS - SELLOFF AT FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE 🟣DXY🟣 H4 CHART As we witness the unfolding of a conflict in the Middle East this week I expect the commodities of OIL and GOLD to raise more after a pullback that will offer buy entries. On my view the DXY index will pullback to the previous broken support now resistance in the 99.200 - 99.340 area and selloff to the weekly targets 97.500 and 96.800. FOMC on Wednesday should catalyse this move and I expect the pullback to take place between the first days of the week
TVC:DXYShort
by SalvoVaccaro
6/16/2025 3:33am PST - PreMarket Analysis - ChatGPTCRUDE OIL FUTURES – 15-Min Chart Analysis (June 16, 2025 – 06:23 UTC-4) Ticker: OIL (MARKETSCOM) Current Price: ~$70.97 Trend: Short-term bearish correction after major rally EMA Signals: Bearish pressure building below 21 EMA, 50 EMA, and at 200 EMA support 🔍 Technical Indicator Summary: 1. Moving Averages EMA 21 = $72.97 EMA 50 = $72.88 EMA 200 = $70.72 (currently holding as dynamic support) ➡️ Price is squeezed just above the 200 EMA while remaining under key short-term EMAs, signaling temporary bearish control but near potential bounce zone. 2. MACD (12,26,9) Histogram: Weak bearish momentum (slightly below 0) Signal line below MACD line but flattening ➡️ Signs of bearish momentum exhaustion. Neutral to slight bullish lean if crossover happens. 3. RSI (14) RSI = 40.65 Signal line = 49.76 ➡️ Approaching oversold territory but not deeply enough to be a reversal signal alone. RSI flattening, suggesting possible price compression before decision. 🔒 Key Price Levels 🔻 Support Zones: $70.70 (EMA 200) — crucial dynamic support $70.00 – key horizontal and psychological support $69.17 / $68.98 – deeper structure supports if $70 fails 🔺 Resistance Zones: $72.15 (near-term resistance) $73.39 – local structural peak $73.99 – key double top zone 🎯 Trade Setup (Next 24 Hours) ✅ Scenario 1: Bounce from EMA 200 (Bullish Reversal) Conditions for entry: RSI climbs above 45 and MACD bullish crossover confirmed Price holds $70.70 and reclaims $71.50+ on healthy volume Entry: 📈 Buy breakout above $71.50 (confirmation above local lower high) 🎯 TP1: $72.20 🎯 TP2: $73.30 🛑 SL: $70.40 (below 200 EMA and recent low) ❌ Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $70.70 (Bearish Continuation) Conditions: MACD histogram expands red again RSI drops under 38 Price closes below $70.70 with increasing volume Entry: 📉 Short below $70.60 🎯 TP1: $70.00 🎯 TP2: $69.20 🛑 SL: $71.30 (above minor consolidation) 📊 Probability Forecast (Next 24h): Scenario Probability Rationale ✅ Bullish Reversal 60% - EMA 200 historically strong bounce zone MACD flattening Price holding horizontal + dynamic support | | ❌ Bearish Continuation | 40% | - Price below all short-term EMAs Macro structure still shows lower highs Breakdown below 200 EMA could trigger quick selloff to $70 / $69.2 | 🧠 Strategic Insight: Buyers are defending EMA 200; short-term bears running out of steam. Wait for RSI & MACD confirmation — price may range 1–3 more candles. Low-risk long possible if we see price reclaim $71.50 with volume.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by Trader604
AUD/CHF Sell Trade Idea 🧠 Why Sell AUD/CHF? * **Australia (AUD)**: * Economic growth is slowing. * Consumer and business confidence are falling. * The Reserve Bank may cut interest rates soon. * Australia’s economy depends heavily on China and commodities — both are under pressure. * **Switzerland (CHF)**: * Safe-haven currency — gets stronger when the world is uncertain. * Low inflation and strong exports make CHF attractive. * Even though the Swiss central bank cut rates, demand for CHF remains high due to global risks. --- ### ⏳ **What to Watch For** * RBA (Australia’s central bank) possibly cutting rates in August * Weak data from China hurting AUD further * Ongoing wars or trade issues making CHF stronger ---
Short
by Wainainarobert
1
NAS100 - Stock market awaits an important week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in the specified pattern. If it does not rise again above the broken trend line, I expect a correction. If the index returns above the broken trend line, we can expect a new ATH to be recorded on the Nasdaq. It is better to wait for confirmation on the breakout in order to control further risk. Last week, U.S. stock markets—particularly the Nasdaq index—experienced significant volatility, driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical factors: • A reduction in trade tensions due to ongoing U.S.-China negotiations • The release of inflation indicators • Heightened geopolitical tensions According to Politico, as G7 leaders meet in Canada, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran will top the agenda. Politico reported that leaders of the free world have gathered in the Rocky Mountains to discuss the very real threat of a full-scale war in the Middle East. The initial sessions of the G7 summit will take place in Kananaskis, where the worsening Israel-Iran conflict will be the primary focus. Donald Trump, who in recent days has fueled tensions through social media, is now expected to join discussions aimed at de-escalation. On the economic front, lower-than-expected inflation in May could encourage the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner than markets had previously anticipated. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation rose 2.4% in May compared to a year earlier. Housing costs were identified as the primary driver of this inflation, while price increases in categories most affected by high tariffs were not as pronounced as economists had expected. So far this year, the Fed has refrained from cutting its benchmark interest rate, citing concerns that tariffs might push consumer prices higher. While the likelihood of a rate cut at this week’s meeting remains low, the latest report could ease some of these worries and accelerate the timeline for potential cuts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that a growing group of President Trump’s advisers is urging him to consider Besant for the Fed chair position. Jerome Powell’s current term extends until May 2026, and he was originally nominated by Trump in November 2017. Other names reportedly under consideration include Kevin Warsh (considered a favored candidate), Kevin Hassett (head of the White House National Economic Council), Christopher Waller (a current Fed board member), and David Malpass (former World Bank president). After a week dominated by U.S. inflation data, investor attention in the coming days will shift toward central bank decisions and potential signals regarding the future path of interest rates. The trading week kicks off Monday with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an initial snapshot of the industrial sector in New York. Later that day, the Bank of Japan will announce its first interest rate decision, an event that could shape Asian market trends and the yen’s valuation. On Tuesday, May’s U.S. retail sales data will be released—a key indicator of consumer strength. Signs of weakness in this report could bolster expectations for rate cuts. Wednesday will be the focal point of the week, as the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. While markets have already priced in a pause in tightening, investors will scrutinize Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on the likelihood of rate cuts in the months ahead. Additionally, data on May housing starts and weekly jobless claims will also be released that day. On Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth, attention will turn to monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Changes in tone or interest rates from these key European central banks could influence currency market volatility. Finally, the week will conclude Friday with the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index—a leading indicator closely watched by traders for insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. East.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
AUD/CAD Short — Fundamentals Say “Down” 📉 **AUD/CAD Short — Fundamentals Say “Down” The **Australian Dollar** is looking shaky: * Business confidence is falling * The RBA might **cut rates soon** * And China (Australia’s top trade partner) is **slowing down**, which hurts demand for Aussie exports Meanwhile, the **Canadian Dollar** is holding up better: * Oil prices are steady — and oil is Canada’s strength * Inflation is sticky, so the Bank of Canada is **more patient** with cuts * Plus, Canada’s exports are still flowing strong Put simply? **Aussie is soft. Loonie is firm.** This pair could slip lower — fundamentals favor **selling AUD/CAD**. ---
Short
by Wainainarobert
1
when Jerome says spike, the markets asks how low/high"Watch what they do, but also how they say it." In the high-stakes world of central banking, few things move markets like the subtle wording of a Fed statement, But beyond the headlines and soundbites, one market absorbs this information faster—and with greater clarity—than almost any other: the bond market. 💬 What Is "Fed Speak"? "Fed speak" refers to the nuanced and often deliberately vague language used by U.S. Federal Reserve officials when communicating policy expectations. It includes: FOMC statements Dot plot projections Press conferences Individual speeches from Fed officials nerdy tip: the Fed aims to influence expectations without committing to specific outcomes, maintaining flexibility while steering market psychology. 📈 The Bond Market as a Decoder The bond market, particularly the U.S. Treasury market, is where real-time interpretation of Fed policy plays out. Here's how it typically reacts: 1. Short-Term Yields (2Y, 3M) = Fed Expectation Barometer These are the most sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations. If the Fed sounds hawkish (more rate hikes), short-term yields jump. If dovish (hinting cuts), they fall. At the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y) experienced a modest but clear reaction: Just before the release, yields were hovering around 3.79%. In the first hour following the 2:00 PM ET (20:00 UTC+2) statement, the yield ticked up by approximately +8 basis points, temporarily reaching about 3.87%. Later that day, it eased back to around 3.79%, ending the day roughly unchanged—a sharp, immediate spike followed by a reversion. 2. Long-Term Yields (10Y, 30Y) = Growth + Inflation Expectations Longer-dated yields reflect how the market sees the economy unfolding over time. After a Fed speech: Rising long-term yields = stronger growth/inflation expected Falling yields = fears of recession, disinflation, or policy over-tightening 3. The Yield Curve = Market's Policy Verdict One of the best tools to read the bond market's verdict is the yield curve—specifically, the spread between 10Y and 2Y yields. Steepening curve → Market thinks growth is picking up (Fed may be behind the curve) Flattening or Inversion → Market believes the Fed is too aggressive, risking a slowdown or recession 📉 Example: After Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in 2022, the 2Y-10Y spread inverted deeply—markets were pricing in recession risks despite a strong Fed tone. 🧠 Why Traders Must Watch Bonds After Fed Speak 🪙 FX Traders: Higher yields = stronger USD (carry trade advantage) Falling yields = weaker USD (lower return for holding) 📈 Equity Traders: Rising yields = pressure on tech/growth stocks (higher discount rates) Falling yields = relief rally in risk assets 📊 Macro Traders: The MOVE Index (bond volatility) often spikes around FOMC events Forward guidance shifts = big rotation opportunities (e.g., bonds > gold > dollar) (BONUS NERDY TIP) 🔍 How to Analyze Fed Speak Through Bonds ✅ Step 1: Watch the 2Y Yield First responder to new rate expectations. ✅ Step 2: Check the Fed Funds Futures Compare market pricing pre- and post-statement. ✅ Step 3: Look at Yield Curve Movement Steepening or inversion? That’s the market’s macro take. ✅ Step 4: Track TLT or 10Y Yield on Your Chart Bond ETFs or Treasury yields reveal sentiment instantly. 🧭 Final Nerdy Thought : Bonds React First, Talk Later When the Fed speaks, don't just read the words. Read the yields. The bond market is often the first to interpret what the Fed really means—and the first to price in what comes next. So next FOMC meeting, instead of watching only Powell’s facial expressions or CNBC pundits, open a chart of the 2Y and 10Y. That’s where the smart money’s listening. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile courtesy of : @TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) - Investment Outlook for 2025 Comprehensive Analysis & Valuation of Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) - Investment Outlook for 2025 Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), one of the world’s leading agribusiness companies, presents an attractive opportunity for value and income-focused investors, particularly in today’s uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Operating in the processing and distribution of grains, oils, biofuels, and animal feed, ADM is a defensive stock with cyclical characteristics. This article provides a detailed fundamental analysis, incorporating financial metrics, strategic developments, and a valuation based on four macroeconomic scenarios (War, Growth/ESG, Stagnation, Recession). We also include a Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, and a peer comparison to offer a holistic investment perspective. 📌 Company Overview & Key Financials Sector: Agribusiness (grain/oilseed processing, biofuels, animal nutrition). Market Cap: ~$31-32 billion (June 2025, share price ~$52). Revenue: $85.5 billion (stable, reflecting resilience). Net Income: $1.8 billion (2024, down 59% from $3.48 billion in 2023). Free Cash Flow (FCF): ~$2.5 billion, down ~40% from 2023. FCF Yield: 1.25% (weak cash generation). Net Debt: ~$9.5 billion, with Interest Expense of $647 million (increased borrowing costs). Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.49 (down from 10.8 in 2023, under pressure). Inventory: ~$20.5 billion (~1/3 of assets), Inventory Turnover: ~6x (~60 days, up from ~37 days in 2023, indicating slower turnover). Return of Capital: Dividend Yield: 3.96% (payout ratio ~49.5%, safe). Share Buybacks: Limited in 2024, stable share count (~550 million shares). Key Ratios: P/E: 14.25 (moderate-low). P/B: 1.12 (attractive). P/S: 0.29 (very undervalued). PEGY: 6.81 (expensive based on growth). ROE: 8%, ROA: 7%, ROIC: 3.4% (< WACC 9%, low capital efficiency). ESG/Innovation: Investments in biofuels, plant-based proteins, automation (partnerships with Cargill, LG Chem, Solugen). FOREX Exposure: ~45% of revenue from outside the U.S. (Brazil, Asia, Europe), pressured by a strong USD. Workplace Incidents: Minor incidents in silos (2023), manageable legal/regulatory risk. Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with Nestlé, PepsiCo, Cargill (sustainable oils), LG Chem (bio-plastics), Solugen (biotech). 📈 DCF Valuation (4-Year Horizon) Using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with a 4-year horizon, we estimate ADM’s intrinsic value under four macroeconomic scenarios. Assumptions include: FCF Year 0: $2.5 billion. WACC: 9%. Terminal Growth Rate: 2%. Net Debt: $9.5 billion. Shares Outstanding: ~550 million. 1. War/Geopolitical Instability (+6% FCF CAGR) Description: Escalating conflicts (e.g., Iran-Israel, ongoing Ukraine) drive up commodity prices (grains, oils). ADM’s large inventory ($20.5 billion) becomes a strategic asset, boosting margins. Logistics/fuel costs rise but are offset by higher prices. Enterprise Value (EV): $54.7 billion. Equity Value (EV - Net Debt): $45.2 billion. Share Price: $82-85 (+58-63% from $52). Key Drivers: Improved margins from commodity price spikes. Inventory turnover improves to ~7x. Minor FOREX pressure from strong USD. 2. Growth/ESG (+3.5% FCF CAGR) Description: Economic recovery and rising demand for plant-based products/biofuels. Strategic partnerships (Cargill, LG Chem) enhance revenue, with ESG-driven innovation (automation, carbon-neutral practices) supporting growth. EV: $48.3 billion. Equity Value: $38.8 billion. Share Price: $70-72 (+35-38% from $52). Key Drivers: Moderate FCF growth from technology investments. Stable inventory turnover (~6x). Potential FOREX tailwind if USD weakens. 3. Stagnation (0% FCF CAGR) Description: Stable economy with no significant growth or crises. High inventories tie up capital, and limited share buybacks maintain stable share count. Dividend remains steady. EV: $42.1 billion. Equity Value: $32.6 billion. Share Price: $58-60 (+12-15% from $52). Key Drivers: Flat FCF, pressured by borrowing costs ($647 million interest expense). Inventory turnover remains low (~6x). Moderate FOREX headwinds from strong USD. 4. Recession (-3% FCF CAGR) Description: Global recession reduces demand for food/biofuels. FOREX pressures (strong USD) and potential inventory write-downs hurt profitability. Debt levels may rise. EV: $36.9 billion. Equity Value: $27.4 billion. Share Price: $48-50 (-4-8% from $52). Key Drivers: Declining FCF, possible suspension of buybacks. Inventory turnover drops (~5x). Significant FOREX pressure. 📊 Sensitivity Analysis The table below shows how the share price varies with changes in FCF Growth and WACC: FCF CAGR / WACC 7% 9% 11% +6% $90.50 $85.00 $80.00 +3.5% $75.80 $71.00 $66.50 0% $63.00 $59.00 $55.50 -3% $53.20 $49.00 $45.50 Observations: Higher WACC (11%) significantly reduces valuation in weaker scenarios. Strong FCF growth (6%) supports substantial upside in the War scenario. 🎲 Monte Carlo Simulation A Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 iterations) was performed to estimate the share price distribution, using: FCF Growth: Normal distribution, mean 1.5%, standard deviation 3%. WACC: Normal distribution, mean 9%, standard deviation 1%. Terminal Growth: Normal distribution, mean 2%, standard deviation 0.5%. Results: Mean Share Price: ~$65. 95% Confidence Interval: $48 - $85. Scenario Probabilities: War/Geopolitical Instability ($82-85): ~25%. Growth/ESG ($70-72): ~35%. Stagnation ($58-60): ~25%. Recession ($48-50): ~15%. 📊 Chart: Share Price Estimates The following bar chart visualizes the estimated share prices across the four scenarios: Grok can make mistakes. Always check original sources. Download 🆚 Peer Comparison ADM is compared to key competitors: Bunge (public), Cargill (private, limited data), and Louis Dreyfus (private): Metric ADM Bunge Cargill (Est.) Louis Dreyfus (Est.) P/E 14.25 11.50 - - P/B 1.12 1.35 - - P/S 0.29 0.33 ~0.4 ~0.35 Dividend Yield 3.96% 3.20% - - ROIC 3.4% 6.8% ~5% ~4% Debt/Equity 0.4 0.5 ~0.6 ~0.5 Inventory Turnover 6x 7x ~6.5x ~6x Key Takeaways: ADM offers a lower P/E and P/S, making it more attractive for value investors. Bunge has higher ROIC but a less compelling dividend yield. Cargill/Louis Dreyfus: Limited transparency, but similar commodity/FOREX exposure. 🌟 SWOT Analysis ✅ Strengths: Defensive sector (food), resilient in crises. Attractive dividend (3.96% yield). Undervalued metrics (P/B 1.12, P/S 0.29). Strategic partnerships (Cargill, LG Chem, Nestlé). Large inventories provide a buffer in geopolitical crises. ❌ Weaknesses: Sharp decline in net income (-59%) and FCF (-40%). Low ROIC (3.4%) below WACC (9%). High inventories (~60 days) tie up capital. Rising borrowing costs ($647 million interest expense). 🌟 Opportunities: Geopolitical instability boosts commodity prices, leveraging inventories. ESG/biofuel trends drive long-term growth (partnerships in sustainable oils, bio-plastics). EPS recovery in a growth environment ($70-75 potential). ⚠️ Threats: Recession reduces demand, risking inventory write-downs. FOREX headwinds from strong USD (~45% of revenue from abroad). Workplace incidents/regulatory risks (minor but present). 🧠 Investment Conclusion Current Price ($52): Undervalued for value investors, with a strong dividend (3.96%) for income investors. Upside Potential: War/Geopolitical Instability: $82-85 (+58-63%) – Best-case scenario due to commodity price spikes. Growth/ESG: $70-72 (+35-38%) – Balanced scenario driven by innovation/partnerships. Downside Risk: Stagnation: $58-60 (+12-15%) – Limited upside due to high inventories. Recession: $48-50 (-4-8%) – Moderate risk given defensive nature. Investment Appeal: Value Investors: Attractive due to low P/B (1.12) and P/S (0.29). Income Investors: Ideal for stable dividend income. Growth Investors: Less appealing due to low FCF Yield (1.25%) and high PEGY (6.81). Key Catalysts: Rising commodity prices from geopolitical tensions. ESG-driven growth via partnerships and innovation. Key Risks: Recession-driven demand decline and inventory write-downs. FOREX pressures from a strong USD. 🔍 What to Monitor Commodity Prices: Critical for margins (grains, oils). Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts (Middle East, Ukraine) favor ADM’s inventory strategy. Inventory Turnover: A drop below 5x signals liquidity pressure. FOREX: USD movements vs. BRL, EUR, CNY impact ~45% of revenue. ESG Progress: New partnerships or investments in biofuels/sustainability. Debt & Interest Rates: Rising rates could further strain interest coverage.
NYSE:ADM
by giorgalexis
Speculation!This is pure speculation based on probabilities and possibilities. Given where the market structure for OXT was broken and considering Fibonacci retracement levels, price has to touch the 0.618 fib level for initiating a bull market for this asset. That is a 400-500% price increase, which many may say is a far fetched target, but considering past price action, OXT has been able to print a 400% weekly candle when the market cap was much higher than today’s. Considering the low market cap and potential sudden massive trading volume spikes of this asset, I believe we will see 500% weekly candles again, but if you put money in this asset and lose your money, it’s on you. I have already wanrned you that I’m saying these things based on pure speculation.
CRYPTO:OXTUSD
by Se7enSkies
Oil Prices Surge Following Armed Conflict Between Israel and Ira In the early hours of Friday, June 13, a new turning point in global geopolitics emerged and extended through the weekend: Israel launched an aerial attack using missiles and drones on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering an immediate reaction in energy markets. The conflict has continued throughout the weekend, resulting in casualties on both sides, including significant losses within the Iranian military hierarchy. Brent crude spiked intraday by 13%, closing at $75.40—its highest jump in five years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also surged to $74, erasing its year-to-date losses. As of today, this upward movement appears to have paused temporarily. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Brent broke through the key resistance level of $74 and began the week reaching a peak of $78.46, opening the door to a potential bullish extension toward the psychological $80 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now above 70 on daily charts, starting the week at 75.33%, indicating overbought conditions—albeit justified by the sudden spike in geopolitical risk. On the weekly candles, the price has broken out of a bearish consolidation pattern that had persisted since March. A weekly close above current psychological resistance highs could confirm a trend reversal if prices break through the $82.60 resistance during the week. Today’s Asian session showed signs of a technical ceiling, with a red candle at the session open failing to surpass Friday’s highs, indicating weakness and pushing the 1-hour RSI down to around 56%. Since early May, oil has risen approximately 25%, suggesting a potentially revitalized trend. Looking at moving average crossovers, the 50-period MA has crossed above the 100-period MA, signaling the beginning of an uptrend. If this is confirmed by a cross above the 200 MA this week, prices could recover toward $96, assuming resistance levels are breached. Bearish pressure during the Asian session is largely attributed to U.S. pressure on oil prices. The point of control has remained significantly below current prices—around $72–73—forming a wide bell-shaped profile concentrated in that range, where prices have traded most frequently since late last year. Fundamental Analysis The driver behind this sharp move is clear: the market is pricing in the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows. Any disruption in this strategic chokepoint would dramatically increase logistical costs and the risk of short-term shortages. Banks like JP Morgan warn that a total closure—although unlikely—could send crude prices as high as $130 per barrel. Currently, they estimate a 7% probability of such an outcome, but even a partial escalation is enough to maintain an elevated risk premium. U.S. weekly crude inventories also fell more than expected (-3.8 million barrels), adding further upward pressure. These tensions arise just as OPEC+ had begun to ease its production cuts. Current volatility may force a strategic rethink within the cartel, with emergency meetings possible if the Middle East crisis worsens. Impact on Energy and Macroeconomic Markets The immediate surge in oil prices reflects not only fears of physical supply disruption but also a reassessment of "tail risks"—now considered more plausible—such as a partial or full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario fuels a structural geopolitical premium that could persist for weeks or even months if the escalation continues. The response among listed oil companies has been mixed. Giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron saw immediate share price increases, while more regionally exposed firms such as TotalEnergies and BP showed greater volatility. Meanwhile, crude oil shipping companies like Frontline or Euronav may benefit from longer, costlier, but potentially more profitable freight routes. Persistently high oil prices could challenge expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, potentially sparking a new inflationary wave in the energy component. This could lead to unexpectedly tighter global financial conditions, especially in energy-dependent economies. Net energy importers—such as India, Japan, or much of the eurozone—could see their trade balances worsen and currencies weaken, while exporters like Saudi Arabia, Russia, or even Venezuela could gain fiscal and political strength. Global Repercussions The conflict between Israel and Iran represents a new inflection point for the oil market. Its trajectory will be critical for commodities, capital flows, and monetary policy throughout the second half of the year. Technically, the $96 per barrel zone becomes increasingly likely if the conflict drags on. Fundamentally, a strategic realignment among multilateral organizations and producers seems imminent, possibly ushering in a new phase of higher and more volatile oil prices. The key lies in two factors: Iran’s response and the stance of the United States, which has condemned the attack but has yet to take direct military action. If Washington becomes actively involved, the impact could be far more profound—economically and geopolitically—and markets are beginning to price in that risk. The conflict also threatens to derail diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington, which had recently resumed with the goal of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The attack has frozen those talks and prompted Iran to announce severe retaliatory measures, adding another layer of uncertainty for global markets. Investors have responded by shifting clearly toward safe-haven assets such as gold, which rose more than 2% during the session, and the U.S. dollar, which regained ground against major emerging market currencies. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTQ2025Long
by ActivTrades
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 16, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Empire Manufacturing Manufacturing Index GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive below Friday's three-year high, although it lacks bearish conviction and is trading in a narrow range around 1.3500 during the Asian session. The latest UK consumer inflation data will be released on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting, which will play a key role in influencing the British pound (GBP). In addition, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, which will affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate and give a significant boost to the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, weaker UK GDP data released on Friday, which showed that the economy contracted more than expected by 0.3% in April, reinforced expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated. On the other hand, the US dollar is receiving some support from the global flight to safe assets caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is helping to limit the growth of the GBP/USD pair. However, growing recognition that the US central bank will also resume its rate-cutting cycle in September amid signs of weakening inflation in the US is holding back dollar bulls from aggressive bets. Moreover, the generally positive risk sentiment acts as a barrier to the dollar as a safe haven and provides some support to the GBP/USD pair, which requires some caution before confirming that spot prices have peaked. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35500, SL 1.35300, TP 1.36400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Is Digital LiDAR the Eye of Autonomy's Future?Ouster, Inc. (NYSE: OUST), a key player in the small-cap technology landscape, recently experienced a significant boost in its share price following a crucial endorsement from the United States Department of Defense (DoD). This approval of Ouster's OS1 digital LiDAR sensor for unmanned aerial systems (UAS) validates the company's technology. It highlights the growing importance of advanced 3D vision solutions in both defense and commercial sectors. Ouster positions itself as a foundational enabler of autonomy, with its digital LiDAR distinguishing itself through enhanced affordability, reliability, and resolution compared to traditional analog systems. The DoD's inclusion of the OS1 sensor within its Blue UAS Framework represents a strategic victory for Ouster. This rigorous vetting process ensures supply chain integrity and operational suitability, making the OS1 the first high-resolution 3D LiDAR sensor to receive such an endorsement. This approval significantly streamlines procurement for various DoD entities, promising expanded adoption beyond Ouster's existing defense engagements. The OS1's superior performance in weight, power efficiency, and rugged conditions further underscores its value in demanding applications. Looking ahead, Ouster actively develops its next-generation Digital Flash (DF) Series, a solid-state LiDAR solution poised to revolutionize automotive and industrial applications. By eliminating moving parts, the DF series promises enhanced reliability, longevity, and cost-efficient mass production, addressing critical needs for autonomous driving and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This forward-looking innovation, combined with the recent DoD validation, firmly establishes Ouster as a pivotal innovator in the rapidly evolving landscape of autonomous technologies, driving its ambition to capture a substantial share of the $70 billion total addressable market for 3D vision.
NASDAQ:OUSTLong
by UDIS_View