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Fundamental Analysis

The Bitcoin bull has been resting for a while,it may be ready toThe Bitcoin bull has been resting for a while, and it may be ready to run again soon. Technical Analysis Bitcoin consolidated within a narrowing range, shaping a potential Bullish Falling Wedge, a continuation pattern that typically precedes an upside breakout. Closing above 121,000 would confirm the bullish structure and signal trend continuation. RSI below 70 suggest a potential of another leg up If the upward breakout is confirmed, the next upside target is near 133,000, aligning with the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a close below 113,000 would invalidate this outlook and may need a reassessment. Fundamental Analysis Bitcoin traded sideways-down ahead of the FOMC, then rebounded sharply as policy clarity eased uncertainty. Despite the Fed’s hawkish tone, renewed confidence drove flows back into Bitcoin. ETF inflows continue to provide strong support. According to Farside.co.uk, Bitcoin ETFs have seen total inflows of $55 billion since their launch early last year, with $20 billion coming in just this year (through the end of July), showing no slowdown in momentum. Treasury Reserve Corporate adoption continues, led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Metaplanet, and GameStop, with over 135–250 non-crypto firms adding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. On the regulatory front, the GENIUS Act is seen as a significant positive development, offering much-needed clarity and enabling institutional investors and ETFs to gain crypto exposure with greater confidence—supporting Bitcoin indirectly. Miners are hoarding BTC amid high prices, limiting supply and reinforcing upward pressure on the market. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil
ALAB WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (2025-07-31) ### 🚨 ALAB WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (2025-07-31) 🧠 **Smart Money Snapshot** → RSI: **76+** = Strong Momentum → Call/Put Ratio: **2.19** = Bullish Bias → Volume: 📉 **0.6x last week** = Momentum may fade → Gamma Risk: ⚠️ High = Expect **fireworks** --- 📈 **TRADE SETUP** 💥 Ticker: **\ NASDAQ:ALAB ** 🟢 Strategy: **Buy Call** 🎯 Strike: **\$149.00** 💰 Entry: **\$0.65** 🎯 Target: **\$0.97** (50%+) 🛑 Stop: **\$0.39** 📆 Expiry: **Aug 1 (1DTE)** 📊 Confidence: **75%** --- ⚠️ **Risk Note:** 1DTE = 💣 High gamma = **big reward / big risk** 🧯 Size small. Exit fast. Ride momentum. --- 📌 Trade posted: **2025-07-31 @ 10:58 AM ET** \#ALAB #OptionsTrading #WeeklyPlay #GammaSqueeze #MomentumTrade #TradingViewViral
NASDAQ:ALABLong
by quantsignals
JPM + $500B Capital Forecast + Banks to Profit from Tar NYSE:JPM , 4H chart ALVO13 Insight: A strong mix of technical structure and positive fundamentals.Technical Setup (Elliott Waves): The chart suggests a potential start of wave (5) after a completed correction (4). Stochastic is in the oversold zone, and $280 support is holding — a key signal for a possible reversal. Key Levels: • Support: $280.00–280.47 • Resistance: $295.73–298.02 • Target (Wave 5): $315.67 Fundamental Factors: JPMorgan forecasts up to $500B in new equity inflows from retail and institutional investors during H2 2025. This could lift the market, especially financials. Banks are likely to benefit from upcoming trade tariffs — via increased demand for hedging, transaction fees, and advisory services. PM remains one of the most solid U.S. banks, with strong dividend policies and excellent return on equity (ROE). ALVO13 Trade Idea: • Entry: $282–286 (confirmation-based) • Stop-loss: below $280 • Take-profit: $315+ • Risk/Reward: 3:1 Break below $280 invalidates the bullish wave 5 scenario.
NYSE:JPMLong
by ALVO13_official
MORE DOWNSIDE AHEAD Looking at the GBPUSD pair, we can see that the trend has reversed to the downside. The pair broke a rising trendline to the downside in the past and also formed a head and shoulder pattern. Also in the past,price broke a resistance which is indicated with blue rectangle and a support which is indicated with a red rectangle to the downside. I'm seeing price retracing to retest the previously broken structure or support which is indicated with a red rectangle and turning it to resistance, and thereby continuing the downtrend
Short
by enwemadufranklyn1989
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and gold is still rising!The latest news indicates that Trump has announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products and a 25% tariff on Indian products, and has firmly stated that the tariffs will take effect on August 1st, with no further grace period. These positive factors will also support a rebound in gold. As for tomorrow's big non-farm payrolls, considering that both the previous two times were negative and contrary to the ADP, it is very likely to be bullish for gold, which may help boost a steady rebound in gold, so there is no need to worry if you are stuck with gold. Nothing rises forever, and nothing falls forever. Last week, the market rose in the first half, then fell in the second half. With the first half of this week's decline, the daily chart has already fallen to near the 100-day moving average. Be wary of a rebound in the second half. Gold is bearish today, but don't chase shorts. Focus on the 3300 resistance level. If it breaks above and stabilizes, expect a continued rebound to 3330-3345! A real-time strategy is like a beacon guiding your investment journey. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely. FX:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Charlie_Senior_Analyst
Fundamentals Support Dollar’s Potential Trend ReversalThe dollar appears to be reversing its direction on the 4-hour timeframe. The trendline has been broken and retested twice, but the dollar has held above it, signaling a potential shift in momentum. Despite intense pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve, the data is likely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at the upcoming meeting and possibly at the one after that. A potential rate cut in September will largely depend on incoming inflation and labor market data. The inflation impact of tariffs became more visible in the latest CPI report, but the effect is still relatively modest. This aligns with our theory that tariff-driven inflation will build gradually and persist over a longer period, rather than cause an immediate spike. Meanwhile, the labor market has not shown clear signs of rapid weakening, so there is no strong case for a rate cut from that side either. The Financial Conditions Index also indicates that monetary policy remains on the accommodative side. Bloomberg financial conditions index is at highest level since March. As markets increasingly recognize that no rate cuts are likely in the near term, and with the August 1 tariff deadline approaching amid potential rising risks of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, the dollar may gain further support. The U.S.–EU bond market spread also does not favor a stronger euro at the moment, adding to the dollar's upside potential. In the short term, 98.10 and 98.53 are immediate support and resistance levels. If the dollar breaks above 98.53 again, upward momentum may strengthen and open the path toward the 100 level.
TVC:DXYLong
by ftdsystem
Trade Idea: I’m bullish on EURNZD.Euro Finds a Tailwind, Kiwi Faces a Crosswind 🌬️💶🐑 The euro just got a major boost — not from within, but across the Atlantic. With the US-EU tariff deal now secured, one weight has been lifted off Europe’s shoulders. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s momentum is slowing under the weight of rate cut expectations. This divergence could be tradable. 📈 Trade Idea: I’m bullish on EURNZD. Why I’m backing euro strength over the kiwi right now: ✅ The US-EU tariff deal is done, removing a major external risk for Europe 🧊 ECB is holding steady after eight cuts — signaling policy stability 📉 RBNZ is expected to resume rate cuts, with a 2.75% target by year-end 🔁 Business confidence in NZ is high, but consumer sentiment remains soft 💬 Speculators are net long EUR, and net short NZD The Eurozone isn’t booming — but it’s stabilizing. Industrial production is up, inflation is cooling, and a fresh wave of investor optimism is lifting sentiment. With tariffs no longer hanging over the ECB’s head, the pressure to cut further eases. That’s a fundamental tailwind. On the other hand, New Zealand is in limbo. Domestic confidence is improving, but the RBNZ is stuck in a global game — and that game still favors more easing. Markets are already positioning for it, with speculative bets on the kiwi flipping negative. EURNZD is one of the cleanest expressions of central bank divergence and shifting macro sentiment right now. Are you with the fortress or the flock? Let me know your view. 🧱🐑👇
Long
by Wainainarobert
1
Report - 31 jully, 2025Summary Initial optimism following the historic US–EU trade agreement has swiftly eroded as France and Germany openly criticized the deal, warning it undermines EU sovereignty and economic stability. The euro fell sharply, carmakers led equity declines, and political fractures within the bloc widened. While the deal averted a full-blown trade war, concerns over inflation, competitiveness, and regulatory submission have shifted sentiment. The perception of European capitulation under pressure from Trump has reignited transatlantic tensions and injected fresh volatility into global markets. This retreat in EU support underscores the precarious nature of transatlantic cooperation under Trump’s economic nationalism. Meanwhile, signs of tech decoupling, tariff expansion beyond the EU, and deferred retaliation signal a fractured global trade order. European fiscal policy, particularly Germany’s defense-driven deficit expansion, is now under heightened scrutiny amid market volatility and FX pressure. Market Reactions Equity markets across the EU opened higher on tariff relief expectations but reversed course as Germany’s Chancellor Merz and France’s Prime Minister Bayrou denounced the deal. The DAX fell 1.1%, CAC 40 slipped 0.4%, and eurozone auto stocks plunged 1.8%. The euro lost over 1% against the dollar in its second-largest daily drop this year, reflecting concern over structural imbalance and political subordination. In contrast, semiconductor stocks surged, with ASML and BE Semiconductor rising over 4% as the tech sector escaped tariffs. Wall Street remained relatively stable, buoyed by optimism around defense, energy, and tech sectors gaining from the deal. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.9%, reflecting both euro weakness and expectations that inflationary tariffs could keep Fed rates elevated. Fiscal and Political Implications The backlash from Berlin and Paris lays bare deep fractures within the EU regarding its posture toward Washington. Chancellor Merz’s warning of "considerable damage" and Bayrou’s reference to EU “submission” cast doubt on Ursula von der Leyen’s negotiation strategy. The deal’s imposition of a 15% baseline tariff—triple the pre-deal weighted average—exposes Europe to substantial cost increases without achieving reciprocal liberalization. Internally, the European Commission is accused of caving to U.S. pressure while undermining its own credibility. Documents and diplomatic leaks suggest that more aggressive retaliatory planning was watered down due to fears of a broader security rupture, particularly concerning NATO and U.S. arms support to Ukraine. This reinforces the EU’s strategic dependency, limiting its ability to resist U.S. economic coercion. Germany’s effort to shield its auto industry via offset schemes largely failed, while Brussels’ “trade bazooka” was shelved in favor of “strategic patience.” This perceived capitulation may embolden further unilateral action from the U.S., especially as Trump eyes tariffs on pharmaceuticals and rest-of-world imports up to 20%. Strategic Forecasts Europe's short-term economic outlook has darkened. The tariff burden—especially on high-margin exporters like German autos—raises inflation risks while lowering competitiveness. Political backlash could destabilize Commission leadership and provoke calls for more aggressive economic sovereignty. Expect further euro weakness, sectoral underperformance in autos and industrials, and possibly downgrades to GDP forecasts across the eurozone. On the U.S. side, Trump’s success with transatlantic leverage may embolden him to expand tariff threats to Asia and Latin America. The Fed will likely face a more inflationary policy environment, with fiscal and protectionist stimulus prolonging higher rate expectations. Simultaneously, China's relief from U.S. tech export freezes—designed to secure a Xi-Trump summit—adds complexity to the strategic tech rivalry. The suspension of chip export controls could spur near-term capital inflows to Chinese AI firms while igniting concern in U.S. defense circles. Risks and Opportunities Risks Breakdown in EU cohesion and trust in Commission leadership Expansion of U.S. tariffs to rest of world (ROW), escalating global trade friction Retaliation by China if U.S. chip diplomacy reverses Drag on European industrial profits and inflation-driven ECB recalibration Fed rate path upwardly skewed due to structural tariff-driven inflation Opportunities U.S. defense and energy sectors benefit from guaranteed EU purchases Semiconductors remain shielded, with valuation support in ASML, TSMC, Nvidia Dollar strength provides tactical trades in EURUSD, GBPUSD Select EM exporters (e.g. Brazil) benefit from re-diversified trade flows AI hardware and chip infrastructure (Samsung–Tesla deal) gains strategic momentum Key Asset Impact – Outlook XAUUSD (Gold): Gold holding firm around $3,340. With fresh political discord and rising protectionist inflation, gold remains a hedge. If Fed signals rate hold, expect a push to $3,400. Bias: Bullish S&P 500: Resilient, driven by defense, energy, and AI. But prolonged strong dollar and tariff-induced input cost pressures are risk factors. Bias: Moderately Bullish Dow Jones: Benefiting from defense and dividend-heavy mix, but under pressure from industrial drag. Bias: Neutral to Bullish DXY (US Dollar Index): Strengthening on euro weakness and policy divergence. However, long-term Fed autonomy concerns and political volatility could reverse trend. Bias: Bullish short-term, Neutral longer-term USDJPY: Little movement today. BoJ still cautious, yen capped unless Fed shifts dovish or global risk-off resumes. Bias: Range-bound EURUSD: Second-largest single-day drop YTD. Political backlash and export headwinds limit upside. Bias: Bearish Crude Oil (WTI): Flat to slightly higher, supported by EU commitment to U.S. energy, but demand data remains soft. Bias: Neutral Stoxx Autos: Heavy selloff (-1.8%) despite tariff reduction, reflecting margin pressure. Bias: Bearish ASML / BE Semiconductor: Relief rally on tariff exclusion. Long-term tailwinds from open AI infrastructure and Samsung–Tesla chip deal. Bias: Bullish Following the signing of a landmark trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union, immediate relief in financial markets has quickly given way to political and economic backlash within the EU. France and Germany, two of the bloc’s largest economies, have openly criticized the agreement, warning it will damage their industrial competitiveness and economic sovereignty. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz labeled the 15% blanket tariff “damaging” for both Europe and the United States, while French Prime Minister François Bayrou called it a “dark day” for EU autonomy. Despite avoiding a full-blown transatlantic trade war, the nature of the deal — seen by critics as submission under U.S. pressure — has sharply divided European leaders and exposed internal fractures in Brussels' negotiation strategy. Market reactions reflect this shift in sentiment. The euro recorded its second-largest single-day drop this year, falling 1.1% against the dollar as investor confidence in European political resolve weakened. Equity markets, particularly in Germany and France, reversed earlier gains. The DAX fell 1.1%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.4%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Auto Index declined by 1.8%, led by steep losses in Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. While semiconductor stocks bucked the trend — with ASML and BE Semiconductor rising over 4% after escaping tariffs — the overall message was one of fading optimism and growing policy disarray. On the U.S. side, the dollar strengthened, aided by expectations that tariff-driven inflation will keep Federal Reserve interest rates elevated. President Trump, emboldened by what many perceive as a successful economic power play, has signaled that he may impose tariffs of up to 20% on countries outside the deal framework — effectively targeting much of the global economy. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology appear to be next in line, with chip exports already under scrutiny. This expands the sphere of tariff risk, placing emerging markets and global exporters on high alert. If implemented, these levies could spark renewed capital flows into U.S. assets and exert further downward pressure on global growth forecasts. The European Union’s failure to mount a credible retaliatory response has amplified the perception of its weakened position. Brussels initially suspended its response to U.S. tariffs in April and internal discord among member states diluted the EU’s “trade bazooka.” While a €93 billion retaliatory package was drafted, the effective threat fell to only €9 billion of actionable tariffs after exemptions were carved out for politically sensitive sectors like Irish whiskey and Italian beef. Critics argue that this strategic retreat undermined the bloc’s negotiating leverage. Strategic dependence on U.S. security guarantees — particularly for eastern and northern EU states — contributed to Brussels' caution, as did fears that escalation could prompt Washington to cut off military aid to Ukraine or withdraw from NATO commitments. Simultaneously, the U.S. has quietly frozen certain export restrictions on China to facilitate a potential trade accord with Beijing and secure a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. The move, which includes halting a ban on Nvidia’s H20 chip, has drawn criticism from over 20 U.S. national security officials who warn that the chip could enhance China's military and surveillance capabilities. Despite these concerns, the Commerce Department has been instructed to avoid further provocative actions for now. This provides a temporary tailwind for Chinese tech equities and hardware manufacturers, though the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing remains unresolved. In the private markets, a notable structural shift is underway. Private equity investors are increasingly opting to cash out of continuation vehicles — special funds used to extend ownership of portfolio companies — rather than roll over their stakes. Liquidity has become paramount as traditional exits via IPOs and trade sales remain scarce. Data from Houlihan Lokey shows that over 85% of investors chose to exit such vehicles in 2025, up from 75% last year. This underscores broader risk aversion and signals a waning appetite for illiquidity and long-duration exposure in uncertain macro conditions. Overall, the global strategic landscape is growing more fragmented. Europe is politically divided and economically exposed. The U.S. is leveraging its market dominance to enforce strategic compliance, while China is benefiting from a temporary softening in U.S. export policy. Capital is flowing toward liquidity, defensives, and tech infrastructure — and away from uncertainty and regulatory entanglement. Investors should remain attuned to central bank reactions, retaliatory threats, and sudden shifts in geopolitical posture over the coming weeks.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
XAU/USD Analysis – Critical Breakout Zone Approaching 30M Chart📈 XAU/USD Analysis – Critical Breakout Zone Approaching (30-Minute Chart) 🔍 Technical Overview: Chart Type: 30-minutes Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud Key Structures: Supply & Demand Zones, CHoCH, BOS, Trendlines, Triangle Formation 🔑 Key Market Observations: 🟢 Demand Zone (Support) ~ $3,300 – $3,310 This area has been tested multiple times and has shown strength in absorbing selling pressure. A bullish triangle formation is converging into this zone, suggesting a potential breakout point is near. 🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance) ~ $3,375 – $3,390 Repeated price rejection from this zone marks it as a strong institutional-level resistance. Price needs a clean breakout and volume confirmation to push through this level. 📉 Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHoCH): BOS and CHoCH levels are clearly marked, showing a trend shift from bullish to bearish (post-supply test). The last CHoCH aligns with a lower high, reinforcing bearish dominance unless invalidated. 📐 Symmetrical Triangle Formation: Price is squeezing between higher lows and lower highs, coiling before a significant breakout. Two scenarios are outlined: Bullish Breakout: Clear move above triangle resistance → test of supply. Bearish Breakout: Breakdown → revisit demand zone or even drop toward $3,280–$3,270. ☁️ Ichimoku Cloud: Price is currently testing the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A bullish breakout into/above the cloud may act as confirmation of a reversal attempt. 💡 Potential Trade Setups: ✅ Bullish Case: Trigger: Break and close above $3,335 with volume. Target 1: $3,375 (Supply Zone) Target 2: $3,440 (Extended Target) Invalidation: Rejection from triangle top and close below $3,310. ❌ Bearish Case: Trigger: Break and close below $3,310 (triangle breakdown). Target 1: $3,280 Target 2: $3,260 Invalidation: Bullish breakout of triangle and flip of previous CHoCH level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AllyPipsExpert
Has Geopolitics Clouded Brazil's Market Horizon?The Bovespa Index, Brazil's benchmark stock market index, faces significant headwinds from an unexpected source: escalating geopolitical tensions with the United States. Recent decisions by the US administration to impose a steep 50% tariff on most Brazilian imports, citing the ongoing prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, have introduced considerable uncertainty. This move, framed by the US as a response to perceived "human rights abuses" and an undermining of the rule of law in Brazil's judiciary, marks a departure from conventional trade disputes, intertwining economic policy with internal political affairs. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has firmly rejected this interference, asserting Brazil's sovereignty and its willingness to negotiate trade, but not judicial independence. The economic repercussions of these tariffs are multifaceted. While key sectors like civil aircraft, energy, orange juice, and refined copper have secured exemptions, critical exports such as beef and coffee face the full 50% duty. Brazilian meatpackers anticipate losses exceeding $1 billion, and coffee exporters foresee significant impacts. Goldman Sachs estimates an effective tariff rate of around 30.8% on total Brazilian shipments to the US. Beyond direct trade, the dispute dampens investor confidence, particularly given the US's existing trade surplus with Brazil. The threat of Brazilian retaliation looms, potentially exacerbating economic instability and further impacting the Bovespa. The dispute extends into the technological and high-tech realms, adding another layer of complexity. US sanctions against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversees Bolsonaro's trial, directly link to his judicial orders against social media companies like X and Rumble for alleged disinformation. This raises concerns about digital policy and free speech, with some analysts arguing that regulating major US tech companies constitutes a trade issue given their economic significance. Furthermore, while the aerospace industry (Embraer) received an exemption, the broader impact on high-tech sectors and intellectual property concerns, previously highlighted by the USTR regarding Brazilian patent protection, contribute to a cautious investment environment. These intertwined geopolitical, economic, and technological factors collectively contribute to a volatile outlook for the Bovespa Index.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOVShort
by UDIS_View
Has Bitcoin become a "SAFE" asset ? These charts show that...... After we heard the US Federal Reserve hold rates yesterday, Markets Fell some. And Bitcoin joined them for a couple of hours but Look now. While the $ falls, the S&P Falls, GOLD is the traditional haven of safety and we can see how it Rose in Value over the last 12 hours The $ has Fallen over the last 8 hours S&P Stalled for the last 24 hours And the STRONGEST positive moves over the last 12 hours were from BITCOIN rising, though it is taking a breather for the moment. SO, has it become a SAFE HAVEN ? Put it like this. Bitcoin has NOT lost value like it used to when under pressure. We have yet to see what would happen once it reaches its cycle Top. Will it retreat as it has historicaly... But for now, it does seem to be a strong store of Value and remains with potential and likelihood of further rises. The TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP chart below This shows us that the investor market seems Very confident in the Crypto Market,,Just going from strength to strength. The TOTAL 2 Market Cap chart shows us something very interesting. The TOTAL2 chart is the Total Market Cap MINUS BITCOIN Compare the 2 charts and you will see how the TOTAL chart has risen way over its previous cycle ATH but the TOTAL2 is currently being rejected off its previous ATH line. This clearly shows us that BITCOIN is the strength in the Crypto Market. It is the same story on the TOTAL3 chart ( TOTAL minus BTC & ETH ) It is the same on the OTHERS chart ( Top 125 coins minus top 10 by market Cap ) BITCOIN CARRIES THE MARKET These are early days but the Future of Bitcoin does seem VERY good So far this cycle, the largest retrace was -31% This drop was NOT a sharp Drop over a short period of time. It was an expected and controlled drop over 112 days. But the zoomed out version of that chart tells us something VERY GOOD PA has risen above and Tested and held that line of resistance that had rejected PA at Cycle Top ATH in 2017 and 2021. That is a HUGE move and we wait to see if we Hold and move higher away from this line. SO, Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven ? It is certainly looking more and more like it. PA is secure, has held position well and is in Price discovery...slowly and with caution...but always moving forward. The traditional 4 yeat Cycle would end in late Q4 this year and so we have to wait and see what happens then. But Bitcoin PA has moved into New ground on so many fronts now. The traditinal BEAR market may not appear, in which case, YES, Bitcoin could become a New SAFE HAVEN Buy Bitcoin Hold Bitcoin
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC #This is a 15-minute Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart showingThis is a 15-minute Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart showing a potential bullish breakout scenario. Price has broken above a key resistance zone (gray shaded area) and is forming a possible bullish continuation pattern (ABCD structure). The red projection indicates a bullish price target towards the 119,750–120,000 USD resistance area (blue line). Confirmation of breakout and sustained momentum above the gray zone would validate the bullish outlook. thanking you
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Abdulkaleem
Trump Tightens the Grip, the IBEX Holds FirmWill the IBEX 35 End July at New Highs? Futures Point Up Despite Tariff Threat By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The IBEX 35 could end July near record highs following a strong opening across European markets. At 08:10 CET, futures on the Spanish benchmark were up 0.54% to 14,445 points, showing more strength than their peers: Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.22%, the German DAX 0.28%, and the UK FTSE 100 0.07%. This upward momentum comes despite a growing international risk: U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a 15% tariff on all imports from Europe, including industrial, agricultural, pharmaceutical, and luxury goods. Fortunately, Europe has chosen not to escalate the conflict by imposing additional tariffs beyond those already in place. A tit-for-tat scenario could have pushed European inflation higher — something the ECB governance is keen to avoid. Potential Impact on the IBEX 35 The tariff decision introduces uncertainty for key sectors within the IBEX 35, especially those with strong international exposure such as Inditex, Grifols, IAG, Acerinox, and Gestamp, which could face margin pressure and weaker exports. In the short term, the outcome will depend on the European Commission’s response, which is already considering coordinated countermeasures. Still, investors appeared optimistic in early trading, focusing on a solid round of earnings from Spanish companies. Meliá, Viscofan, PharmaMar, Sanjosé, and Inmobiliaria del Sur posted strong first-half results, lending support to the index. On the downside, BBVA reported a 2% drop in quarterly net profit, and the Bank of Spain has reduced its systemic buffer requirement for the bank. Technical Analysis The IBEX 35 is trading near its key resistance level at 14,500 points. A monthly close above that level would confirm a breakout from annual highs, potentially opening the path to 14,800 points. However, the tariff threat could bring short-term volatility. Since late May, the index has been moving within a price consolidation range, but in the past two sessions it has shown signs of a bullish breakout above the previous high at 14,358 points. The Point of Control (POC) currently lies at 14,000 points, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators and moving average crossovers suggest the current push is backed by the 50-period moving average and an ongoing price expansion. • Supports: POC at 14,000; key support at 13,599 (consolidation zone) • Resistances: At current highs • MACD and RSI: Indicate a growing overbought trend and increasing bullish volume Despite Trump Tariff Storm Despite the new tariff front opened by Donald Trump, the IBEX 35 displays a resilience worth noting. Backed by solid corporate earnings and favorable technicals, bulls remain at the helm — for now. The risk of a full-scale trade war still looms, but Europe’s decision not to retaliate has eased inflation concerns. And like that brave brigantine that sailed stormy seas, the IBEX remains steady and defiant, unshaken by winds or tempest. “Asia to one side, Europe to the other...” Today, the Spanish index sails toward new highs, hoping to close July with all sails unfurled. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Q2025Long
by ActivTrades
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
Technical Analysis - Gold Rejected at ResistanceGold is currently trading around $3,341 after facing a strong rejection from the $3,438 resistance area. This rejection coincided with the upper boundary of the trend channel and the main resistance zone, which also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement levels. After the rejection, price fell below the descending trendline, indicating that short-term sellers have taken control. On the downside, the immediate support sits at $3,324, which has acted as a short-term bounce level. A break below this could push gold lower toward $3,281 and potentially $3,254, which are key Fibonacci extension support levels. On the upside, the immediate hurdle is at $3,355–$3,360 (descending trendline). A breakout above this area will be critical for any bullish recovery attempt toward $3,381–$3,394 and eventually $3,420–$3,438. At the moment, the short-term trend remains bearish because gold is trading below the descending resistance and showing lower highs. However, as long as gold holds above the $3,254 support zone, the medium-term structure remains neutral to bullish, giving bulls a chance if momentum shifts again. Last week candle is pin bar bearish candle which is showing bearish momentum at the moment. The candle shows rejection near $3,400–$3,450, aligning with the triangle’s upper resistance trendline. If gold cannot reclaim and hold above last week’s high, price may drift lower to retest support zones around $3,248–$3,150 before another breakout attempt. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
2
Gold Awaits Fed Rate Decision – Key Levels & Volatility AheadGold is currently trading near $3,332, showing a minor recovery after recent downward momentum. The price action on the 1-hour chart highlights a short-term ascending structure, which often acts as a corrective move rather than a strong bullish trend. The market previously saw significant selling pressure from above $3,355–$3,360, creating a short-term supply zone. Unless the price breaks and holds above this zone, the overall momentum remains bearish. The chart also shows a projected price path where gold could push slightly higher toward $3,355, meet resistance, and potentially reverse downward again. Key support lies at $3,320, and if this breaks, we could see gold testing $3,290–$3,280 levels, aligning with the black trend line support. However, if bulls manage to break above $3,360, it would signal potential upside continuation toward $3,380–$3,400. Key Points - Key Resistance Levels: $3,355 and $3,360 (critical supply zone). - Key Support Levels: $3,320 (short-term), followed by $3,290–$3,280 (major trendline support). - Expected Short-Term Move: Possible push toward $3,355 → rejection → decline back toward $3,320 and possibly $3,290. Bullish Breakout Scenario: A strong close above $3,360 could push price toward $3,380–$3,400. Overall Bias: Bearish while trading below $3,360. 4hr Chart Price remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A small pullback toward $3,345–$3,350 is possible, but as long as price stays under this resistance, the bias remains bearish with potential downside targets around $3,300–$3,280. Key Levels: - Resistance: $3,350 → $3,381 → $3,394 - Support: $3,324 → $3,281 → $3,254 Today’s FOMC interest rate decision is a key driver for Gold. Here’s the quick analysis: - If Fed Hikes Rates or Maintains Hawkish Tone: - Strong USD likely → Gold could face more selling pressure. - Key support zones: $3,324 – $3,300, then $3,281 and $3,254. - If Fed Pauses or Turns Dovish: - Dollar weakens → Gold may bounce toward resistance zones. - Upside levels: $3,355 – $3,360 and higher toward $3,381 – $3,394 (Fib levels). Expect high volatility; $3,300 is a critical support to watch. A dovish Fed may give Gold short-term relief, but a hawkish stance could accelerate the downtrend. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Price Update – Bearish Flag Signals Possible Drop AheadGold is currently trading around $3,324, showing consolidation after a recent decline from the $3,345 region. The chart shows a bearish flag pattern forming after the sharp drop, indicating potential continuation of the downtrend. If gold fails to break above this region, sellers may push the price lower towards $3,301 and possibly $3,275. The descending trend line adds further bearish pressure, limiting upside momentum unless gold decisively breaks and holds above $3,345. Overall, gold remains under short-term bearish sentiment, with the focus on support retests. Any bullish momentum will only be confirmed if the price closes above the flag and trendline resistance. Key Points Resistance Zones: $3,328 (0.618 Fib), $3,345 (flag top). Support Zones: $3,301 (Fib base), $3,284, and $3,275 (bearish extension). Trend Outlook: Short-term bearish unless price breaks above $3,345 with volume. Bearish Targets: $3,301 → $3,284 → $3,275. Bullish Invalidations: Break and close above $3,345 may shift bias to bullish. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Wall Street Very Expensive: Time for Europe and China?1) The S&P 500 valuation has reached its late 2021 record In the second quarter of 2025, the valuation of the U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500, returned to its record levels of late 2021. The S&P 500 has been reaching new all-time highs consistently since early July. In contrast, European and Chinese markets appear undervalued. In Europe, indices such as the Stoxx 600 and the Eurostoxx 50 remain below their historical highs. There is catch-up potential, especially as valuation remains reasonable. Technically, these markets offer attractive setups. In China, the potential is even more pronounced. Chinese markets are significantly behind, both technically and fundamentally. It would simply be a matter of returning to their former peaks. Although U.S. corporate earnings remain strong, the current valuation of the S&P 500 limits its short-term upside potential. Conversely, Europe—and especially China—offers a more attractive risk/reward profile at this point in the cycle, both in terms of market valuation and technical analysis. While the S&P 500’s long-term trend remains bullish, it may therefore be wise to rebalance slightly in favor of European and Chinese equities. The first chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the flagship Shenzhen stock exchange index. The second chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the EuroStoxx 50 futures contract, with a market that has not yet exceeded its historical high—unlike the S&P 500 index. 2) The Shiller PE (or CAPE Ratio) is the best option to compare U.S., European and Chinese equity market valuations The CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio), also called the Shiller PE, is a financial indicator that measures stock market valuation. It compares the current price of an index, such as the S&P 500, to average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. Unlike the standard PE ratio based on a single year’s earnings, the CAPE smooths out cyclical fluctuations to provide a more stable, long-term view of valuation. While the Shiller PE of the S&P 500 has returned to its 2021 record, that of the European and especially Chinese equity markets remains well behind. There is therefore still significant catch-up potential for Chinese and European stocks compared to U.S. stocks according to this fundamental valuation metric. The chart below, produced by Barclays Research, shows a comparison of equity market valuations using the CAPE ratio between China, the United States, and Europe. The Warren Buffett indicator, for its part, proposes a valuation comparison using the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. Here too, the message is clear: the Chinese equity market is significantly cheaper than the U.S. equity market. The table below is taken from the website Gurufocus. 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SZSE:399001
by Swissquote