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Fundamental Analysis

SaylorCycle - The Next 100XWe are in the first year of the SaylorCycle. The next decade we will see a complete change in the structure of the Bitcoin market as there is a 10 year boom in bitcoin accumulation on a global level. Bitcoin will be seen as a corporate treasury, and there will be thousands of public companies hoovering up Bitcoin for their Corporate Treasuries. Bitcoin will also been seen as a Strategic Reserve and countries will compete with each other to accumulate as much as possible. Individuals will also be given plenty of options to earn bitcoin as companies like Square and other major payments companies adopt Bitcoin for merchants. Retail will have plenty of options to get bitcoin exposure and new technologies like chaumain ecash mints will scale Bitcoin to billions enabling small retail savers to accumulate sats. The last decade was the story of Bitcoin transitioning from an illegitimate asset to a legitimate asset, and now Bitcoin is transitioning from a legitimate asset to a must own asset. Over the next decade Bitcoin will become a global reserve asset up there with US treasuries and Gold. We should no longer see 80-90% drawdowns and the Bitcoin market structure should move like the rest of the global markets as there is a strong bid for bitcoin from institutional & sovereign buyers. In this 10 year SaylorCycle, we should expect to see "bear market" declines as low as 50% and "bull market" rises as high as 200% year over year. I believe the days of parabolic bitcoin advances and brutal 90% drops are done, and Bitcoin will advance to levels as high as $10 million per coin over the next decade or 2, giving parabolic-like returns. I believe there is one last 100X in Bitcoin, but it will happen over 10-20 years instead of 1-2. I am going to position myself conservatively to be ready for the worst case scenario where this is wrong and we do see a -90% drop. Don't over-leverage yourself. You should always be able to survive -90% without being a forced seller or being liquidated on loans.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by bradmillscan
Risk aversion escalates, prices continue to rise?Information summary: On the last trading day of last week, gold rose again under the stimulation of risk aversion. The gold market is shrouded in risk aversion in the Middle East. In the short term, the trend of gold is still supported by risk aversion and may continue to rise. At present, the relationship between Israel and Iran has not been eased; there is the latest news: Iran may retaliate against the air strikes it suffered this time. This will provide momentum for the rise of gold. Market analysis: Gold 1 hour shows that the moving average forms a golden cross and diverges upward, and the bullish trend of gold is still there. After the rise of gold risk aversion, gold has adjusted sideways in the short term, but it is still oscillating strongly at a high level; it is still in the process of rising. The short-term fluctuation of gold is the adjustment in the process of rising, and it will continue to rise at any time. After the gold bulls broke through 3400, they have been stabilizing above this position, so the strategy for next week is still to buy on dips. However, it should be noted that if the international situation suddenly changes, the price may not fall back, but directly rush to a new high. In addition, if the international situation eases and falls below 3400, we must adjust the operation strategy in time to avoid losses. Important positions: Resistance levels: 3450, 3475, 3490 Support levels: 3410, 3400, 3380 Operation strategy: Buy near 3410, stop loss at 3400, win range above 3450 points. There are still 7 hours left before the Asian market opens. I hope my analysis can help all traders gain something in the gold market.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_1
Consumer Services (Hotel & Tourism Sector) : SPCSECSP : CSE Fundamentals * Q4 2025 results indicate weakening momentum in the sector in respect of topline growth. * Combined YoY revenue growth for Q4 2025 of four biggest hotel operators listed in CSE AHUN, KHL, PALM & AHPL is just 1% * Major 5 STAR city hotels (AHPL, TAJ, SERV) combined revenue had recorded a negative growth of more than 5% (dropped by > 5%) during Q4 2025 comparative to previous year * CBSL data indicates USD Earnings per Arrival had dropped by 3.03% during April 2025 against 2024. This indicates deteriorating quality of arrivals. * No visible global promotional campaign during last 6-8 months * Country is entering the tourism off-season Technical Analysis (Chart Patterns) * After dropping aggressively (17%) from recent top, SPCSECSP index is consolidating between 484-514 area creating a bear flag formation while CSE is in a bull run. * If breaks down technical target would be 400-420 level (another 15-17% drop) * Weekly 20 SMA is curling down * Levels marked as 1,2,3 are support areas where investors can assess the developments for re-positioning. (levels 2/3 are strong support areas) Strategy Staying away from the sector and monitoring the progress/developments might be prudent while allocating capital for sectors with momentum/better growth * If technical pattern discussed above, breaks down estimated time it will take to reach major support area coincides with the start of next tourism season (Sep/Oct), where investors can assess the situation for re-positioning. Disclaimer * NOT financial advice * Investors should take their investment decisions based their own analysis
CSELK:SPCSECSPShort
by HR2302
SPX Futures - Sunday Night Must Watch (bookmark this chart)This chart displays the price action of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES), a stock market index futures contract that is traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Globex electronic trading platform. The S&P 500 index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest U.S. companies, making it a key benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. economy and stock market. This particular chart visualizes the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers, with the candlesticks representing the open, high, low, and close prices for each period. By analyzing the patterns and trends on this chart, traders and investors can speculate on the future direction of the S&P 500 index. This analysis is often supplemented with various technical indicators that can provide further insights into market momentum, volatility, and potential turning points. Lower pane is the actual SPX which will be live only during market hours.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NeverSawAlpha
Ready for the plunge. Market meltdown incoming!⚠️ UPDATED ASSESSMENT - MAXIMUM RISK Escalation Level: MAXIMUM RISK - The conflict has now reached unprecedented scale with 720+ military facilities attacked, confirmed US involvement, and potential for regional Islamic coalition forming against Israel. Financial Market Risk: 95/100 - We are approaching systemic financial risk with oil supply chains threatened, nuclear facilities under massive attack, and potential for regional war involving multiple Islamic nations. Critical Factors: Scale of destruction (170+ targets), nuclear program targeting (80+ sites), US military involvement confirmed, calls for Islamic unity, and expert warnings of broader regional war. Immediate Concerns: Complete breakdown of Middle East oil supply, global energy crisis, nuclear contamination risks, and potential World War III scenario if regional Islamic coalition forms.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by herve76
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGold (XAUUSD) continues to maintain strong bullish momentum, with current price action sitting around 3,430. We have been holding a bullish outlook since the key accumulation zone between 3,150 and 3,200. Price has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, and recent consolidation has broken out with conviction. Based on technical structure, my immediate upside target is 3,500, where I expect price to react before potentially extending even higher depending on upcoming macro drivers. Fundamentally, gold is being fueled by a combination of sticky inflation data and a cautious Fed stance. Even though the FOMC held rates steady in June, market expectations are shifting towards policy easing later in the year due to softening labor data and a cooling economic outlook. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and continued central bank gold buying remain strong tailwinds for the metal. The U.S. dollar index has shown minor weakness post-CPI, offering further support to gold bulls. Technically, the daily chart shows a clean bullish flag breakout that aligns with the trendline support and impulsive wave structure. Price broke above 3,400 with strong volume and minimal resistance, indicating clear bullish dominance. As long as price holds above the 3,380–3,400 zone, continuation toward 3,500 remains highly probable. There is also confluence from previous structure highs and minor Fibonacci extension levels around that mark. Overall, I remain confidently long on XAUUSD. I’ve been tracking this bullish cycle since the 3,150–3,200 region and continue to favor upside moves backed by macroeconomic and technical alignment. I’ll be watching key reaction zones near 3,500 for potential profit-taking, while holding swing positions with dynamic risk management in place.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Missiles in the Middle East, Headwinds on Nasdaq: NAS100 onHey There; The trend line on the NAS100 has been broken to the downside. My target level after this breakout is 21,299.47. If the price moves towards this level, I think it will reach my target in line with fundamental analysis due to the broken trend line and Iran-Israel war tensions. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
FX:NAS100Short
by TraderTilki
7
XRP 4444 day mega pump/cycleI used geometric progression by cycles to gain a deeper understanding of what is happening on the graph, apart from what can be seen from the fractals. The fact that the graph repeats itself means that it is cyclical. Cyclicality in infinite time is infinite, which means it has no angles. The circle is the only thing in which one thing is known, namely the ratio of the circumference to its diameter, which allows us to extend the graph into the future using the number Pi. This can also be used in our work by applying mirror zones 69 96, calculating them from the circle. I expect the start of strong growth on day 4444 in this time range and a breakout at zone 4144, followed by a retest with further growth, according to the fractal. Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Long
by FTT_TRADER369
How will Israel-Iran war affect Lockheed Martin?Why LMT Could Go Up Defense Stocks Rally on Tensions -LMT surged ~3–4% recently after Israel’s major strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, similar to gains seen in other defense names like RTX and Northrop Grumman. F-35 & Advanced Weapons in Spotlight -Israel deployed its F‑35I Adir (built by Lockheed) in the strike, demonstrating the jet’s central role in modern military operations. -With growing international demand for advanced fighters and missile systems, sales could accelerate. Backlog & Contract Strength -LMT carries a massive order backlog (~$55 billion), recently securing large contracts like Patriot missile updates and naval systems—critical as global militaries boost budgets . Analyst Upgrades -JPMorgan, among others, upgraded LMT to “Buy” in response to geopolitical risk benefiting defense spending. Risks & Headwinds Volatility is Short-Term -Defense stocks often jump in response to geopolitical escalation but can also retreat swiftly once tensions de-escalate . Broader Market Pressures -While LMT benefits directly, overall markets declined (~1–2%) and oil spiked on conflict fears—this broader risk sentiment can limit long-term flows into equities . Execution & Budget Risk -LMT depends on consistent defense budgets. Any shifts in U.S. or allied priorities, or cost overruns, could weigh on future growth. Valuation Uncertainty -Even after the recent rise, LMT trades around $486, likely pricing in many upside expectations. Limited catalysts beyond ongoing conflict could constrain further gains. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
NYSE:LMTLong
by bossout10
3
Will History repeat itself for BTC?Why Bitcoin Could Fall Historical pattern? -Bitcoin seems to be replicating the old crash from 60k. Regulatory or policy uncertainties -Future regulation remains uncertain; unexpected rulings or crackdowns could reduce institutional appetite and lead to pullbacks. Dependence on economic sentiment -If global liquidity tightens or equities falter, Bitcoin could behave like a high-risk asset and decline sharply Current War situation -The effecs of the Iran-Israel war will affect BTC as USD is seen as a risk-off asset (so if USD goes up, then BTC goes down) -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
Short
by bossout10
3
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices 1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues. Current Data (June 13, 2025): 10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases. Term Premium: The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed. 2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation Negative Correlation Generally Observed: The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities. Recent Trends: In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies. Risk Sentiment: The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety. 3. US100 and Bond Prices Indirect Relationship via Yields: Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling). Safe-Haven Demand: In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline. 4. Yield Curve and Market Implications The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks. A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100. Conclusion The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks. The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs. The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities. #NAS100 #DOLLAR
MARKETSCOM:US100Long
by Shavyfxhub
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices 1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues. Current Data (June 13, 2025): 10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases. Term Premium: The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed. 2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation Negative Correlation Generally Observed: The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities. Recent Trends: In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies. Risk Sentiment: The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety. 3. US100 and Bond Prices Indirect Relationship via Yields: Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling). Safe-Haven Demand: In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline. 4. Yield Curve and Market Implications The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks. A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100. Conclusion The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks. The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs. The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities. #NAS100 #DOLLAR
MARKETSCOM:US100Long
by Shavyfxhub
Nasdaq must hold its line, otherwise more downsideMarkets are on edge. The Nasdaq is hovering just above its 200-day moving average and with so much angst in the market, this line must hold. If it breaks, risk sentiment could unravel quickly, and we could see a retest of recent 2025 lows. The trigger isn’t hard to find. Rising tensions in the Middle East are putting upward pressure on oil and energy. A sustained rally in crude would reignite inflation fears just as central banks begin easing. Powell was supposed to start cutting, but wars are always complicated. Higher energy costs hit consumers, slow growth and force policymakers to rethink their next moves. That’s a headwind for tech and growth names. Equities have enjoyed a solid run this year, pricing in a soft landing. But that assumption now feels shaky. Particularly for risky assets like the Nasdaq. The Dow might do better relative. The market isn’t just worried about geopolitics. It’s digesting the reality that inflation remains sticky. Bond yields are rising. Rate cuts are being pushed back. And oil isn’t helping. If the Nasdaq holds its 200-day line, the bulls stay in control. But a break below will shift the momentum. That’s why this week matters. We’re watching a simple but powerful signal. Stay above 20,500 and markets can stabilise. Break below, and volatility returns. This trade is only for the brave. The story is shifting. Stay alert. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Blueberry
2
US 10Y TREASURY: eyes FOMC projections The US inflation data were posted during the previous week, showing that the inflation continues to slow down, with 0,1% in May. Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data are showing decreasing inflation expectations for this year at 5,1%, from previously posted 6,6%, while the five year expectation eased to the level of 4,2%. However, the unrest on markets was imposed by new Middle East tensions, which were also reflected in the Treasury yields during the previous week. The 10Y yields started the week at 4,5%, and closed it at 4,4%. The lowest weekly level was at 4,3% on Friday, but the Middle East unrest pushed the yields toward the 4,4%. The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting and Feds macro projections, which is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18th. It is widely expected that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at this meeting, while the odds are increased for a rate cut in September. Certainly, the day of the FOMC meeting will bring some increased volatility, considering investors sensitivity to the Fed's narrative and especially projections. The next supporting level for the 10Y yields stands at 4,2%. However, considering the current unstable geopolitical scene as well as the FOMC meeting, there is also an equal probability for 10Y yields to test higher grounds, around the 4,5% level, but not higher from it.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX