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Fundamental Analysis

SPX: geopolitics shaping sentiment Although the previous week on US equity markets started with a positive sentiment, still the newly emerged tensions in the Middle East turned the sentiment to the negative side. The S&P 500 was looking for higher grounds, after recently reaching the 6K level again, however, turning 1,13% to the negative territory on Friday, after the news regarding the Middle East tensions. The index is back below the 6K, closing the week at 5.976. While investors were digesting the risks from the Middle East tensions, tech companies were the ones that were mostly driving the index to the down side. NVDA dropped by 2,09%, AAPL was down by 1,38%. On the opposite side was TSLA, with a Fridays gain of 1,94%. On the other hand, the macro fundamentals were relatively positive for the US economy. The inflation is clearly calming down, with the US inflation in May at 0,1%, which was better from market estimate. Also the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment preliminary for June showed decreased inflation expectation by US consumers, at 5,1% for this year, from 6,6% posted previously. The most important event during the week ahead would be the FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, June 18th. The Fed will also discuss the economic projections. This would be a day to watch on financial markets as it can bring some higher volatility.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: FOMC meeting ahead Previous week on the US market was focused on inflation data. The inflation rate in May was standing at 0,1% for the month, below market expectations of 0,2%. At the same time the US core inflation was also below market estimate at the level of 0,1%, while the market forecasted 0,3% for the month. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in May was standing at 2,3% and core inflation was 2,8%. The Producers Price Index in May was at the level of 0,1% for the month, same as core PPI. Both figures were modestly below market estimates. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June showed some modest relaxation in the inflation expectations. The indicator reached the level of 60,5 which was better from the market estimate of 53,5. The inflation expectations for this year at the beginning of June were standing at 5,1%, and were decreased from 6,6% posted previously. The five year inflation expectations modestly decreased from 4,2% to 4,1%. During the previous week there has not been too much currently significant data posted for the Euro Zone and Germany, its largest economy. The wholesale prices in Germany in May dropped by -0,3% for the month, bringing the indicator to the level of 0,4% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market forecasts. The balance of trade in the Euro Zone in April ended the month with a surplus of euro 9,9B, which was significantly below market estimate of euro 18,2B. The Industrial Production in the Euro Zone surprisingly dropped in April by -2,4% for the month, which was higher from estimated -1,7%. The IP on a yearly basis stands at 0,8% in April, again below market consensus of 1,4%. Although the inflation in the US is evidently slowing down, as well as long term inflation expectations, still, newly emerged tensions in the Middle East made investors prefer long positions in gold rather than USD. In this sense, USD weakened as of the end of the previous week to the lowest weekly level against euro at 1,1624. Still, the currency pair closed the week at 1,1553. The RSI has not reached the clear overbought market side, reaching the highest level at 66. This leaves some space for eurusd to move further to the higher grounds until the clear overbought market side is reached. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near in the future. Usually after a strong push of financial assets toward one side, follows the time when the market is searching the equilibrium level. Depending on further developments on the Middle East crisis, there is a potential that eurusd will start the week ahead with a modest consolidation. The 1,15 resistance line was clearly breached during the previous week, indicating probability that the currency pair will revert a bit back to test for one more time this level. On the opposite side, the 1,16 was shortly tested, but the potential for further upside will depend on weekly fundamentals. The most important event for the week ahead is scheduled for Wednesday, June 16th, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled, as well as US economic projections. This day will most certainly bring some higher volatility on markets. Currently, it is widely expected that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at this meeting, and leave the planned rate cut for September. However, what the market is expecting to hear are projections for the future period, especially how the Fed perceives the impact of implemented trade tariffs on the US economy. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, Inflation rate final in May for the Euro Zone, PPI in Germany in May, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash in June, in both Germany and the Euro Zone, USD: Retail Sales in May, Industrial Production in May, Building Permits preliminary in May, Housing starts in May, the FOMC meeting and interest rate decision will be held on Wednesday, June 18th, the FOMC economic projections will be posted the same day, Fed press conference after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The week ends with data regarding Existing Home Sales in May on Friday.
by XBTFX
2
Bitcoin: weekly gains and dipsThere has been a sort of roller coaster with BTCs weekly price movements during the previous week. The week started with a strong move toward $110K. Although it seemed like a fresh new momentum toward the higher grounds, or eventually new all time highest level, the price soon began to tumble down, ending the week above the $104K level. On charts, it looks more like a “pump and dump” strategy, imposing a potential for a further correction. However, the reaction of BTC market on the negative news regarding the new unrest in the Middle East was exposed shortly on Friday trading session, when the price shortly reached the $102,9K level. The RSI modestly dropped below the 50 level, ending the week at the 47. The MA 50 currently stands as a supporting level for BTCs price, while the indicator continues to diverge from its MA200 counterparty. As per current charts, there is a high probability that weekly gains and dips will continue. The line connecting the lowest level from the beginning of April this year and lows from the beginning of June and from the previous week shows that there is a high probability for $104K to be tested. It also perfectly combines with MA50 as a currently supporting line. In case that the $104K is breached toward the downside, then it might bring some short bearish movements with BTC. In this scenario, the $100K might be again the target. However, if the $104K sustains the selling pressure, then the BTC will return toward the $108K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: June 15 – 21Last week in the news Newly emerged tensions in the Middle East impact market sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US equity markets reacted in a negative manner, bringing the S&P 500 down by more than 1%. The US Treasury yields started their relaxation during the week, however, reversed on Friday back to the level of 4,4%. The US Dollar lost in value, however, the demand for safe-haven assets pushed the price of gold more than 1,4% higher, ending the week at the level of $3.443. The BTC had a rollercoaster week, with highs at $110K, but is ending the week above the $104K level. The previous week started in a promising sentiment. The US May inflation data was posted, indicating a clear down trend. The inflation in May reached the level of 0,1%, bringing it to the level of 2,3% compared to the previous year. Core inflation was also standing at 0,1%, while both figures were slightly better from market estimates. The week-end brought the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June, where inflation expectations were also decreased. Yearly inflation expectations significantly dropped to the level of 5,1% from 6,6% posted for the end of May. The five year inflation expectations were also decreased from 4,2% to 4,1%. The inflation data supported market expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at their meeting in June, but increased odds for the next cut in September. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 18th, together with macro projections. Analysts are pointing that the macro projections will be in the spotlight of investors, as they are still trying to wage the total impact of the imposed trade tariffs. At their May meeting, it has been shortly noted by Fed Chair Powell that the risks of both higher inflation and unemployment had risen. As data are showing that the inflation is slowing down, the increasing unemployment might impact the Fed to cut interest rates in order to fulfil their dual mandate. The new unrest in the Middle East is another topic that puts concerns among investors. Seeking safe-haven assets, the price of gold gained 1,4%, only on Friday trading. The investors are also concerned that the surging prices of oil, due to the crisis, might spillover to the US inflation figures in the coming period. Although the US at present moment, is not highly exposed to the volatility of oil prices on world markets, still, analysts are pointing to the effect which might come from increased commodity prices, as a consequence of surged oil prices. This will be another topic closely watched at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday. Interesting news came from Sweden. As Reuters was reporting, the Swedish pension fund AP7 blacklisted shares of Tesla and sold the whole stake. As announced by the fund “ AP7 has decided to blacklist Tesla due to verified violations of labor rights in the United States”. Nevertheless, shares of TSLA gained 1,94% in Friday's trading session. CRYPTO MARKET The rollercoaster on the crypto market was evident during the previous week. The newly emerged Mid-East crisis left its market also on a crypto market. The coins were traded in a mixed manner, but ended the week in a negative territory. On the other side were a few coins which managed to end the week in green. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, losing around $22B from the market cap. Daily trading volumes were relatively flat compared to the week before, moving around the $185B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization once again entered into the negative territory from the beginning of this year, currently standing at minus 1%, with a total outflow of $20B. BTC ended the week flat from the end of the previous week, although the price of coin at one moment reached the level of $110K at the beginning of the week. ETH managed to gain 1% in value, adding $3B to its total capitalisation. Other gainers among altcoins were Uniswap with a surge in value of 17,3% and Maker, with an increase in value of 23% on a weekly basis. The major coins on the market were traded with a negative sentiment. Market favorite Solana ended the week by 4,7% lower from the week before, losing $3,75B in its cap. BNB was modestly down by 1%, while DOGE decreased its value by 4%. Although Solana was traded with a negative sentiment, still, the coin managed to increase its total coins in circulation by 0,5%. This week IOTA had a stronger increase of total number of coins on the market by 0,8%. The majority of other altcoins had an increase of coins in circulation by 0,1% w/w. Crypto futures market The latest drop in the value of BTC and ETH was not reflected in the prices of crypto futures as of the end of the week. BTC futures ended the week higher by around 0,6% for all maturities, while ETH futures had an increase of around 1,5% on a weekly basis. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $109.390 and those maturing a year later were last traded at $115.590. At the same time ETH futures with maturity in December this year closed the week at $2.637, and those maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $2.838.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
BTC BITCOIN Bitcoin buy level on the green structure to watch will be on the 100k and my next buy watch zone will be 97-98k . Growing institutional participation, including the launch and approval of Bitcoin ETFs is increasing liquidity and legitimizing BTC as an investment asset. Macroeconomic Environment , Persistent low real interest rates by central banks and concerns about inflation support demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. Geopolitical uncertainties and currency debasement fears boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a digital gold. Bitcoin’s network security, hash rate, and active addresses remain robust, underpinning confidence in its decentralized infrastructure. Continued development in scaling solutions and layer-2 technologies enhances usability. Increasing regulatory clarity worldwide, including clearer frameworks for crypto exchanges and custodians, reduces uncertainty and encourages adoption. However, regulatory risks remains a factor that can cause short-term volatility. #bitcoin #btc
Long
by Shavyfxhub
MGY: Technical Breakout + Fundamental Momentum = Quiet Winner?Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) is showing one of the cleanest technical breakouts in the energy sector — and the market hasn’t priced it in yet. After months of pressure, price has broken above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with rising volume, signaling a clear phase shift from distribution to accumulation. Recent candles confirm control shifting to the buyers, with a tight structure, rising lows, and bullish momentum building underneath resistance. The fundamentals back the technical setup. In the latest earnings report, MGY delivered a 9.7% revenue increase, $110M in free cash flow, and continues to pay dividends with low leverage. UBS upgraded the stock with a $29 target, which aligns precisely with the post-breakout projection. Operationally, the company is expanding in key U.S. basins like Eagle Ford, while seeing growing demand from Australia and Latin America. With oil prices pushing higher and geopolitical tensions rising, MGY stands out as a stable energy play in a volatile world. Holding above the $24.00–$24.30 zone keeps the breakout valid, with $29+ as a natural magnet for price. Most investors are still asleep on this name — but the structure is already telling a very different story.
NYSE:MGYLong
by TotoshkaTrades
10
XAUUSD Expecting Bullish movementKey Elements & Analysis 1 Previous Price Action Descending Channel: Highlighted in dark blue indicating a strong bearish trend leading into the present Previous Ascending Channel A prior short-term bullish correction flag formation before continuing the downtrend 2 Support Zone A red rectangular zone at the bottom marks a strong support level where price recently bounced suggesting possible demand 3 Projected Price Movement Yellow Path A W-shaped bullish reversal pattern is forecasted indicating a potential recovery The movement is expected in 3 phases Initial bounce from the support zone Minor pullback Continuation of the uptrend to the target zone 4 Target Levels Level Initial Resistance 3326 Level Next Resistance 3345 Main Target 3362 marked in green with a label representing the anticipated bullish target
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GOLD_FORCAST_PROVIDER
XRP's Ending Diagonal: Climactic Push Towards $3.5-$3.8?XRP: Ending Diagonal & Final Push ($3.5-$3.8 Target) Hello TradingView, My analysis suggests XRP is in its 5th Elliott Wave, unfolding as an Ending Diagonal. This pattern signals a climactic end to the current bullish cycle, often followed by a sharp reversal. Key Levels: Target: $3.50 - $3.80 (marked on chart). This aligns with the diagonal's upper trendline and Fibonacci extensions. Invalidation: $1.5986 (marked in red). A decisive close below this level invalidates the diagonal structure. Catalysts: Positive SEC lawsuit developments and Spot XRP ETF speculation provide fundamental tailwinds for this final push. Outlook: Expect a significant correction after this diagonal completes near its target. Monitor $1.5986 closely. Not financial advice. Trade wisely. #XRP #Ripple #ElliottWave #EndingDiagonal #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceTarget #Invalidation #Reversal #SEC #ETF #Blockchain #MarketAnalysis #Bullish #Altcoin #TradingStrategy
Long
by exprwebdev
thoughts?i don't wanna continue speculating, truth to be told. i've been calling a divergence in the markets since the first moment bitcoin broke up 20k back in 2021. i'm focus on weekly, monthly and yearly timeframes. finding correlation with daily moves. the usual analysis. i'd just like to state my perspective: "it doesn't make sense that the world is bleeding and the markets greener". the world keeps asking for a new structure in the economy for the sake of humanity. will we let any superstition break the chance to grow as a community that cooperates and grows together without division to establish who's the strongest in an ecosystem that is meant to protect us and protect each other. even the lion knows when to step out, if would be greedy... it knows it'll starve and will starve everything around it.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by xkusa
1
SILVERThe price of silver is trading around $36.308 per ounce (approximately $1,203 per kilogram), showing modest gains with a slight intraday rise into a new high of 36.770 Year-to-Date Performance: Silver has gained over 14% in 2025 and about 23.6% since the start of the year in kilogram terms, reflecting strong industrial demand and safe-haven buying. Industrial Demand: Growth in renewable energy sectors, especially solar power and electric vehicles, continues to drive robust demand for silver, which is a key component in photovoltaic cells and electronics. Geopolitical and Market Factors: Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran-Israel conflict, have supported silver as a safe-haven asset alongside gold, contributing to price strength. Volatility: While silver has seen strong gains, short-term fluctuations remain, influenced by dollar strength, interest rate expectations, and profit-taking by investors. silver as undervalued relative to its industrial demand and inflation hedge qualities,so expect continued upward pressure over the medium term .Supply-side risks, including mining disruptions and environmental regulations, may tighten availability and support prices. Investors should be mindful of potential short-term pullbacks amid profit-taking or shifts in macroeconomic sentiment. Key Drivers for price rally ,Industrial demand, safe haven, geopolitical tensions Solar energy, EVs, Iran-Israel conflict In summary: Silver prices are currently strong, supported by industrial demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and safe-haven buying. While short-term volatility persists, the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to supply constraints and growing demand from renewable energy and technology sectors. #silver#gold
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
5