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NASDAQ Daily Observation Scenarios & Probabilities In ContextCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ BLACKBULL:NAS100 EIGHTCAP:NDQ100 Well obviously they're 3 possible outcomes but the idea is how we read the context in the upcoming week as the market unfolds each day. But, weighing the outcome based on the current news / fundamentals I would be leading towards 2/3 the the Bullish Long-Term Trend still holds true. My assumptions would be holding on to the news development of the Iran Israel conflict. Based on TA heavy we would be still be bullish but a good retracement as the Negotiations of ceasefire with market volatility increase as each time there's a news update with the Conflict & top that with the current Trump Tweets, Tariffs, FED Rate cuts. Market is weighing the value of this Conflict escalation and deciding the time to price it in. Because market is always forward thinking, IMO. I personally will be trading these scenarios each-day as the market updates me with NEWS, TA and mainly the Key Levels. As a day futures trader, I will be preparing for volatility. Not as much as the "Liberation Day Sell Off" or the "90 Day Tariff Extension Rally", but futures traders thrive in these kind of market conditions. It is also sad to hear about the news, or course fundamentally. I am also hoping for the market to make a strong stance absorbing it all with a positive outlook. Bullish Scenario: - Market ignores all the war in the Middle East and a rally continuation to make New All Time High. - News updates on the development of de-escalation war negotiations each day which ends up with a Weekly positive green candle. Neutral/Consolidation - News updates brings about both positive & negative impact causing market to range giving the opportunity for accumulation / distribution. Bearish - Bad news WAR escalation, Tariffs, Not enough Rate Cuts, Bearish Data. - Sell side Liquidity wipeout NOTE: * 2/3 outcome leaning Bullish because even when a retracement / pullback happens we will rally back up * since it's a daily observation, i will be looking into the Daily Key Levels of Support/Resistance, Fib Levels, Liquidity Zones, Volume Levels to be tested. * I wish all good luck and god bless. Thank You.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Gone_Trading
Short Uber to deathUber driver's pay is declining constantly. This week it reached the point where good drivers are quitting. The self driving technology to replace these drivers is not yet here. Uber will start absorbing the self driving cars maintenance costs. They will be surprised how much money it takes to have a running clean car. Uber jacked up riders prices to prepare for this; accounting them as insurance costs. Riders are looking more and more into cheaper alternatives. Public transportation is making a come back. Uber will be bankrupt with this model. Their biggest mistake is not taking care of their biggest asset; their drivers. I'm shorting UBER to their death.
NYSE:UBERShort
by gastonvazqz
NASDAQ Weekly Analysis TA & Fundamental News Alignment CME_MINI:MNQ1! IG:NASDAQ CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:NDX BLACKBULL:NAS100 Highest Probability for the upcoming week? Not looking good with the Friday news tension of Israel Iran war escalation. Not much of a selloff coming in, I guess the market is still in the wait and see mode of the upcoming weekend news development; could even be in the next week if the success of de-escalation negotiations. The TA sure look eerie though, big a** H&S formation completion of the last leg. If successful, could we well be in the recession? Will this scare off the FED and force them to CUT RATES? Smart money opportunity to buy another big dip? Have we been in a real proper pullback after a massive rally from "Liberation Day" ? I wonder why we can't break this level in the last week, could it be that the Smart Money selling to Retail? It sure does look like an exhaustion point doesn't it? BEARISH SCENARIO: - Final Leg of the H&S lead to a massive selloff by Retail and Smart Money buying the dip. - News WAR breakout with Iran vs Israel, with every development leading to a sell-off / rollover. - Weekend news leading to a massive gap lower in the Monday Asia Open. - Last week weekly candle close RED wick/shadow suggesting a strong resistance/ rejection level. A high-probability of the next candle will also be a RED Weekly Continuation? BULLISH SCENARIO: - Healthy Retracement and holding strong support levels. - Even for any bearish news the market holds & the participant buying power will maintain a healthy pullback. - Sweep up to the liquidity making New All Time High. NOTE: *This is a weekly analysis, Price Action within the week will reflect differently from day to day. *The outcome will only be projected by the end of next week. *Please do comment on your thoughts, a healthy discussion is always welcomed. *I am publishing my thoughts and context to the way I interpret the market, in no way I am giving any financial advise.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Gone_Trading
Iran-Israel Political Tension & End of Crypto marketDo geopolitical tensions truly cause markets to crash or pump? In a world where financial safety is more fragile than ever, how do traders react? This analysis dives deep into how pro traders think and act during critical moments. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Bitcoin is experiencing a fear-driven shock amid escalating geopolitical tensions, triggering potential downside volatility toward the $98K level 📉. Despite this risk-off sentiment, the broader market structure remains intact, and I maintain a bullish bias. A recovery from key support zones could pave the way for a renewed breakout above $100K in the mid-term . Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🧠 Fear, Safety or Opportunity? Trading Psychology in Crisis 🧨 Markets don’t move based on headlines—they move based on how the crowd feels about those headlines. Political tension triggers emotional responses, especially panic selling. However, experienced traders spot opportunities while others flee. In such moments, two emotional extremes dominate: 🔸 Fear of losing capital (FUD) 🔸 Greed to seize a rare opportunity (FOMO) Both are dangerous if uncontrolled. Tools like RSI and Fear & Greed Index (via external APIs) can provide rough estimates of market sentiment and potential turning points. 📊 Practical TradingView Tools for Analyzing Crisis-Driven Markets 🔍 When global tension spikes, the markets reflect collective emotion like a mirror. During uncertain times, smart traders rely on tools that turn raw data into sharp insights. TradingView provides several features that become extremely useful in times of high uncertainty: 1. Crypto Volatility Index Proxy (using ATR + Bollinger Bands) These indicators help detect when the market is driven more by fear than logic. They show increasing volatility levels as tensions rise. 2. Sentiment Indicators – Funding Rate & Long/Short Ratios These metrics, pulled from major exchanges, show whether traders are overly bullish or bearish. A sudden imbalance usually hints at insider expectations or fast-breaking news. 3. DXY and Gold (XAUUSD) Side-by-Side with BTC Analyzing Bitcoin’s performance alongside USD and gold gives insight into whether investors are going risk-off or seeking crypto as a hedge. 4. Volume-Based Indicators – OBV & Volume Profile While headlines can lie, volume doesn’t. These tools highlight areas of serious buying/selling interest and help identify where smart money enters or exits. 5. Multi-Chart Layout Feature TradingView allows you to analyze multiple assets together—BTC, gold, oil, and stock indices like S&P 500—on one screen. Perfect for understanding macro capital flow during geopolitical events. 💣 Interconnected Markets During Regional Conflict 🌍 Crypto often acts like a risk-on asset during global crises. If traditional markets fall, Bitcoin may follow—unless it’s being viewed as a safe haven. That’s why watching DXY, gold, and oil charts alongside BTC is crucial. Understanding these correlations using TradingView’s comparison features gives you a better sense of where capital is flowing during uncertain times. ⏳ What Traders Should Focus on in Crisis Mode 💼 1. Focus on chart confirmations, not news hype. 2. Use multi-dimensional analysis with TradingView. 3. Prioritize risk management more than ever. 4. Cash is a position. Sometimes the best move is no move. 5. Always have a backup scenario—no analysis is guaranteed. 📌 Final advice: When headlines play with your nerves, data becomes your best ally. With the right tools and a disciplined mindset, traders can navigate even the stormiest markets with confidence. The market rewards the calm, not the reckless. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks, Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
22
BTC - FRACTAL!!!!I found a fractal, the price should rise to the range of 110888, and then there will be a sharp decline, a squeeze will form, with the price supposedly rising and crossing over, but in reality, the price will be pushed down sharply to a range below $90k. I have an idea related to this, I called it the dragon's wings pattern. At one point, I simply realized that the chart repeats what has already happened, and this is exactly what needs to be analyzed. I think the price will go exactly as I have drawn it. All the best and stay disciplined!
by FTT_TRADER369
USOIL The current conflict between Iran and Israel has caused a sharp spike in oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions in a geopolitically sensitive region that is critical for global energy flows. Key Effects on Oil Prices: Price Surge: Oil prices jumped over 7% on June 13, 2025, reaching multi-month highs. Brent crude rose to $76.190 close 73.535 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to around $77.542 before closing at 72.91 per barrel on Friday Earlier intraday spikes were even higher, with Brent briefly surging over 13% and WTI over 14%, marking the largest single-day gains since March 2022. Risk Premium and Supply Concerns: The Israeli strike on Iran significantly raised the "risk premium" on oil prices as markets worry about potential retaliation by Iran targeting oil infrastructure or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for about 20% of the world’s oil. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels per day (3% of global supply) and exports 1.5 million barrels daily, mainly to China and Turkey. Disruptions here could tighten global supply considerably. Potential for Further Price Increases: Analysts warn that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could surge beyond current levels, potentially topping $93 to $100 per barrel if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz or attacks Gulf energy installations. Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude could peak slightly above $90 per barrel before falling back as supply stabilizes. Broader Market Impact: The conflict has also caused stock market declines and a flight to safe-haven assets like gold, which rose sharply alongside the oil price spike. U.S. gasoline prices are expected to rise in the coming days due to higher crude costs, potentially increasing fuel prices significantly if the conflict worsens. Summary The Iran-Israel conflict has already caused a major jump in oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions in a key oil-producing region. The risk of Iran retaliating by targeting oil infrastructure or blocking the Strait of Hormuz could lead to sustained higher prices, with some analysts warning of a possible spike to $93–$100 per barrel if tensions escalate further. This situation is closely monitored by markets given its potential to impact global energy supplies and inflation worldwide #USOIL #OIL
FX:USOILLong
by Shavyfxhub
Massive GBP/USD Reversal Ahead? Head & Shoulders FormationGBP/USD is at a critical technical juncture following a sharp bullish impulse that pushed the pair above the 1.34 handle, printing a strong weekly bullish engulfing candle and breaking out of a multi-week consolidation zone. This move unfolded in a macro context where the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness, with Non-Commercial net long positions dropping drastically—from around 20,000 to less than 5,000 contracts. This shift points to a fading speculative appetite for the dollar, historically a leading indicator of upcoming corrective phases or broader declines in the DXY. On the flip side, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British Pound reveals that Non-Commercials (typically hedge funds and asset managers) remain net long on GBP, with a slight increase week-over-week. However, Commercials (generally institutions and hedgers) have aggressively built up a significant net short position—levels that in the past preceded major reversals on the pair. This divergence between speculators and institutional hedgers suggests short-term bullish potential, but with rising risk of exhaustion near current resistance levels. Adding fuel to this outlook is the retail sentiment: approximately 63% of retail traders are currently short GBP/USD, with an average entry price around 1.3021. This kind of retail crowd positioning, typically inefficient from a historical perspective, adds contrarian support for further upside, as long as price holds above the 1.3340 structure. From a seasonality perspective, June tends to be a mildly bullish-to-sideways month for GBP/USD, especially when looking at the 10- and 15-year seasonal averages. While the seasonal bias is not particularly strong, there’s also no statistical downward pressure this time of year, leaving room for technically-driven moves influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than macro patterns alone. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a steep rally capped by a large green candle on Monday, breaking cleanly through the 1.34 resistance zone. The price is now hovering inside a key supply area between 1.3499 and 1.3550—a historically reactive zone that has triggered major rejections in previous months. How price reacts here will likely shape the next major swing. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above 1.3550 would open the door for an extension toward 1.37–1.3750. Conversely, a sharp rejection followed by a break below 1.3412—and especially under 1.3340—would set the stage for a deeper correction toward 1.3170. The RSI is currently showing early signs of momentum loss, although no strong bearish divergence has emerged yet. This implies that the pair could still fuel another push higher before running out of steam—possibly forming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern if the rejection scenario plays out.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
Weak Pullback, Bears in Control | Will the $100K Zone Hold? BTCUSD – Weak Pullback, Bears in Control | Will the $100K Zone Hold? 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook Bitcoin continues to face downside pressure after failing to hold above the key $108K resistance. Several macro factors are influencing sentiment: 📉 US bond yields are rising again, as markets expect the Fed to delay rate cuts. This adds pressure on risk assets like BTC. 🪙 Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows remain positive, but are currently not strong enough to counter short-term selling pressure. 💵 The DXY (US Dollar Index) is recovering, as investors flee to USD amid geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. 📊 Institutional liquidity is thinning across exchanges, adding to intraday volatility. 📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart 🔹 Trend Structure: BTC is now firmly in a short-term downtrend, trading below the descending trendline and all key moving averages (EMA 34, 89, 200). Rejection from every pullback suggests that sellers are still in control. 🔹 Key Price Zones: Bearish FVG Resistance: 106,096 – 107,004 First Support Zone: 102,821 Major Support Zone: 101,539 → 100,419 A clean break below 100K could open the door to 98,000 and below 🔹 Momentum: RSI is neutral, hovering around the mid-40s without strong divergence signals. Selling volume is increasing but not yet explosive — indicating the market may be awaiting a macro catalyst. 🧠 Market Sentiment Traders are currently in “wait-and-see” mode, eyeing the next round of macroeconomic data and potential Fed commentary. Short-term profit-taking is dominant after last week’s sharp rally. Overall sentiment: Bearish short-term – Neutral mid-term – Bullish long-term 🎯 Trade Setup Ideas 🔻 SELL if price retests FVG and gets rejected Entry: 106,000 – 107,000 Stop-Loss: 107,500 Targets: 102,821 → 101,539 → 100,419 🔹 BUY if price reacts strongly from 100,419 – 101,500 Entry: 100,500 – 100,800 Stop-Loss: 99,800 Targets: 102,800 → 104,400 → 106,000 Preference is given to selling the rally in the short term. Buying should only be considered on confirmed reversal signals at key support. ✅ Conclusion BTCUSD is currently in a corrective phase, with bears maintaining control. The key level to watch is the $100,419 support zone, which may determine whether Bitcoin maintains its medium-term bullish structure or breaks further. Discipline and confirmation are crucial in this volatile environment. 📌 Strategy Focus: Look to sell rallies toward resistance; buy only on confirmed bounce from strong support zones.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
2
GBPJPY At the Top? Massive Liquidity Grab📈 1. Price Action & Key Technical Levels (Daily Chart) Price reached a major supply zone between 196.0 and 197.0, showing clear rejection (weekly pin bar and a lower high structure relative to the previous peak). The long-term descending trendline acted as resistance again. A confirmed rising wedge pattern broke to the downside, with first target around 191.4, and extended target near 187.4 (key demand zone with historical confluence). Weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence vs price highs – an additional signal of bullish exhaustion. 📊 2. COT Data (as of June 3, 2025) GBP (British Pound) Net long positions increased by +30,371 contracts (Commercial + Non-Commercial). Non-Commercials: 103,672 long vs 68,457 short → net long +35,215 but the increase is relatively modest. Commercials are increasing both long and short positions, but the net delta supports medium-term GBP resilience. JPY (Japanese Yen) Net short worsened by -13,566 contracts. Non-Commercials are cutting longs and adding shorts → aggressive yen selling. Commercials remain heavily short (275,659 vs 100,151 long). ➡️ COT Conclusion: GBP remains structurally strong, but the JPY is now extremely oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical correction in favor of JPY (GBPJPY pullback). 📉 3. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short GBPJPY, with an average entry at 191.2. Current price is above 195.8 → a liquidity sweep above retail shorts may have already occurred. The order book shows a heavy sell cluster between 195.0–195.9 → potential zone of manipulation/liquidation. ➡️ Contrarian view: After sweeping liquidity above retail highs, we may now see downside pressure to clean out breakout longs. 📅 4. Seasonality June tends to be neutral to bearish: 5-year average: +0.45% (weak gain) 10- and 15-year averages: -1.24% and -1.30% Historically, the first 10 days of June often mark a local top, followed by a decline – consistent with the current price structure. 🧠 5. Macro-Technical Confluence The broader setup points to a distribution phase between 195.5–196.5, with high probability of a technical pullback toward 193.5–191.4 in the short-to-medium term. The yen's oversold conditions may ease temporarily, supporting a corrective GBPJPY retracement. Break below 193.5 would confirm the move toward 191.4 and eventually 187.4 – an area of institutional interest. 🔍 Trade Setup Summary (Bias: Bearish) Technical context: Short setup confirmed by structure break, divergence, and supply rejection. Macro/sentiment context: Supports a corrective pullback on the pair. Strategy: Look for intraday weakness below 195.0–194.5 → targeting 193.5, then 191.4. Invalidation: Daily/weekly close above 197.0.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
12
NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure) The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone. We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with: Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200 A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal 🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3) Commercials (Smart Money): +4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion Non-Commercials (Speculators): –2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance 📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials. 📆 3. Seasonality June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg) 10Y average still leans bullish ⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes 📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3. 📰 4. Macro Calendar High-impact USD week: CPI – Wed, June 11 PPI – Thu, June 12 These will be critical to: Validate the disinflation narrative Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov 📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises. ⚙️ Operational Outlook ✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation): 🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure ❌ Invalid below 21,350 🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion): 🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200 🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone 🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
USDJPY Trading RangeUSDJPY saw some corrections late on Friday. Overall, the pair remains sideways in a wide range of 143,000-145,100 and has yet to establish a clear continuation trend. The wider band in the sideways trend is extended at 146,000 and 142,000. The trading strategy will be based on the band that is touched. Pay attention to the breakout as it may continue the strong trend and avoid trading against the trend when breaking. Support: 143,000, 142,000 Resistance: 145,000, 146,000
by VHT_Trader
Gold Poised to Shine - 18% Upside Projected by Completing Wave 5Gold is currently trading around 494.92 RMB per gram in China as of July 25, 2023. Based on the technical analysis on XAUCNY showing we are currently in wave 5, subwave 4 of an upward trend, the prediction is that by January 2025, the price for 1 ounce of gold will reach 16575 RMB. Given that 1 ounce equals 28.3495 grams, a price of 16575 RMB per ounce implies that the price per gram of gold is expected to reach around 584 RMB by January 2025. This represents an increase of approximately 18% from the current price of 494.92 RMB per gram. Going from subwave 4 to subwave 5 typically signals the final leg of an advancing trend before it completes the larger degree wave 5. If the analysis is correct, we can expect the 18% price increase to occur over the next 1.5 years as gold enters the terminal subwave 5. The ongoing expansionary monetary policies by central banks globally serves as a key driver supporting higher gold prices. High inflation levels in many economies incentivizes investors to allocate more funds to gold as an inflation hedge. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict also increase safe-haven demand for gold. While risks remain, such as potential interest rate hikes that strengthen the dollar, the overall backdrop still seems conducive for higher gold prices. From a technical perspective, the upside projection toward 584 RMB per gram over the next 1.5 years aligns with the view that subwave 5 will see accelerating upside momentum toward completing wave 5. In summary, based on current technical analysis, the prediction is that gold will reach 584 RMB per gram by January 2025, an 18% increase from today's levels, as it completes the final wave 5 uptrend over the coming months. The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment also seem supportive of this view.
SAXO:XAUCNHLong
by teconlab
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. What is UoM consumer sentiment? The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), often referred to as UoM Consumer Sentiment, is a widely followed monthly survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about the overall economy and their financial situation. Key Details: Purpose: It measures consumer attitudes toward current and future economic conditions, including personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing intentions. Since consumer spending accounts for about 68% of the U.S. economy, the index is a valuable leading indicator of economic activity. Methodology: The University of Michigan conducts telephone and web surveys of a representative sample of U.S. households (around 500–1000 respondents), asking about their financial health, short-term and long-term economic outlook, and expectations for inflation and interest rates. Components: Current Conditions Index — consumers’ assessment of the present economic situation. Consumer Expectations Index — consumers’ outlook for the economy over the next 6–12 months. Release Schedule: Preliminary data is released mid-month, with a final report at month-end. Significance: Reflects consumer confidence and spending intentions. Helps forecast economic growth and inflation trends. Influences financial markets and policy decisions. Summary The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of how confident consumers feel about the economy, which in turn signals their likely spending behavior and economic outlook. Higher sentiment typically suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, while lower sentiment indicates caution and potential economic slowdown. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 96.891 weekly floor will be watched. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on the improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. (2)The Federal Reserve will interpret —Core PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.2%), PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.2%), and Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 248K)—as further evidence of a cooling but not collapsing labor market and subdued inflation pressures. Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Producer Price Index (PPI) what is PPI? PPI stands for Producer Price Index. It is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Essentially, it tracks inflation at the wholesale or producer level, reflecting how prices for goods and services change before they reach consumers. Key points about PPI: Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Measures price changes from the perspective of producers/sellers, unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices from the consumer’s viewpoint. Includes thousands of indexes across industries and product categories, covering goods and some services. Used to forecast inflation trends and as a tool for contract escalations and economic analysis. Often considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation since producer prices tend to influence retail prices over time. In summary, the PPI helps gauge inflation pressures early in the production process before they Inflation Remains Subdued: Both headline and core PPI came in below expectations, confirming that producer-side inflation pressures remain mild. This follows a period of outright declines, indicating no broad-based resurgence in input costs. Tariff Pass-Through Still Limited: While the Fed is alert to potential tariff-driven inflation later in 2025, current PPI data shows businesses are not yet passing higher costs on to consumers in a meaningful way. 2. Unemployment Claims Labor Market Softening: Initial jobless claims held at 248K, above expectations and at an eight-month high. The four-week moving average also rose, and continuing claims increased to 1.956 million, marking the third consecutive weekly rise. This signals a gradual loosening of the labor market, with more people remaining unemployed for longer periods. No Immediate Crisis, But Trend Is Clear: The persistently high claims numbers are moving beyond seasonal noise and indicate a structural shift toward weaker hiring. 3. Policy Implications Supports Dovish Shift: The combination of softer producer inflation and a weakening labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to consider rate cuts later in 2025. No Immediate Rate Cut: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June meeting, but this data increases the likelihood of a cut by September, especially if upcoming CPI and labor data confirm these trends. Cautious Messaging: The Fed will remain cautious due to the risk of tariff-related inflation later in the year, but current data gives them more flexibility to pivot if growth and employment weaken further. Conclusion The Fed will see this data as validating a cautious, data-dependent approach: inflation is contained, and the labor market is softening. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the probability of a cut by September has increased, especially if disinflation and labor market weakness persist. (3)The Federal Reserve will likely interpret the May 2025 CPI data as signs of moderating inflation but with persistent underlying pressures, leading to a cautious but patient policy stance: What is cpi??? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It reflects inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses. Key Points about CPI: What it Measures: The CPI tracks price changes for a broad range of items including food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. Data Collection: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects about 80,000 price quotes monthly from retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices. Purpose: It is widely used to monitor inflation, adjust income payments like Social Security, and guide monetary policy decisions by central banks. Calculation: CPI is a weighted average of prices, reflecting consumer spending patterns, and is updated periodically to account for changes in consumption habits. Inflation Indicator: The annual percentage change in CPI is a common measure of inflation, indicating how much prices have increased or decreased over a year. Summary CPI provides a snapshot of how much prices for everyday goods and services are rising or falling, helping policymakers, businesses, and consumers understand inflation trends and make informed decisions. The headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, less than the 0.2% expected and down from April’s 0.2% increase, indicating a slowdown in price growth. The year-over-year CPI increased 2.4%, slightly above April’s 2.3%, but still close to the Fed’s 2% target, showing inflation is near but not fully anchored. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and April’s 0.2%, suggesting easing price pressures in most sectors except shelter and some services. Shelter costs rose 0.3% in May and remain a key driver of inflation, while energy prices declined 1.0%, helping to temper headline inflation. The Fed will note that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet significantly pushed up consumer prices, but remain a risk factor that could elevate inflation later in 2025. Labor market data remain resilient, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and moderate job growth, supporting economic strength but complicating the Fed’s inflation fight. Policy Implications: The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in its upcoming June meeting, maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach to assess how tariffs and inflation evolve. Markets have limited expectations of a rate cut this month but the price in a ~75% chance of a cut by September, contingent on further inflation easing and labor market developments. The Fed will remain cautious about premature easing given inflation’s stickiness in services and potential tariff pass-through, but the data support a gradual path toward rate cuts later in 2025 if disinflation continues. In summary: The Fed will see May’s CPI data as encouraging but not definitive evidence of inflation control, justifying a cautious hold on rates in June while preparing markets for possible easing later this year if inflation and labor data continue to improve. (4)The Federal Reserve will interpret the May 2025 labor market data—Non-Farm Employment Change of 139K (above the 126K forecast), Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings up 0.4% MoM (above the 0.3% forecast)—as evidence of a resilient but slowing labor market, which supports a cautious approach to monetary policy. Detailed Interpretation: Employment Growth Slightly Above Expectations The addition of 139,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, indicates that job creation continues. Growth is uneven across sectors, with healthcare and leisure showing strength while government and trade-related sectors have seen declines, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and policy uncertainties. Unchanged Unemployment Rate at 4.2% The stable unemployment rate suggests that the labor market remains relatively tight, consistent with "maximum employment" goals. However, underlying data show some signs of weakening, such as rising initial jobless claims in late May, which the Fed will monitor closely. Wage Growth Accelerates Slightly Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% MoM, above expectations, signaling persistent wage pressures that can feed into inflation. Year-over-year wage growth ticked up to 3.9%, reinforcing concerns about labor cost-driven inflation. Overall Fed View The Fed sees the labor market as a relative bright spot amid broader economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and slowing GDP growth. The data suggest the economy is slowing but not collapsing, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance. Given persistent wage growth and resilient employment, the Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meetings but remains open to cuts later in 2025 if labor market softness intensifies and inflation continues to moderate. Conclusion The Fed will likely interpret this labor market report as supporting a steady policy stance in the near term, balancing ongoing inflation concerns from wage growth against signs of slowing employment gains. Rate cuts remain on the table for later in 2025, contingent on further labor market weakening and sustained inflation declines.. Summary of the three economic data leads the rate hold for now, but cut likely any time soon on the data approach. #gold #dollar
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
4
EURUSD is continuing its uptrendEURUSD is still in a strong uptrend. There was a drop in the Asian and European sessions on Friday but that was not enough to reverse the pair. The end of the US session saw the price being pushed up by the bulls from the 1.155 price zone and is stuck in this resistance zone. The price continues to increase when breaking 1.155 will head towards the resistance of 1.161, the highest peak of last week. If there is a retest of 1.155, the price will head towards 1.166 next week to be able to use short-term SELL strategies The BUY strategy is still prioritized as the EU is still in an uptrend. The main BUY zone of the pair is still waiting for 1.150 and lower is the breakout zone of 1.145 Resistance: 1.161, 1.166 Support: 1.150, 1.145
Long
by VHT_Trader
Why Oil Stays Bullish: Israel-Iran and the APMMCurrent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have precipitated significant volatility in global oil markets. This study analyzes the immediate and medium-term impacts of the conflict on oil prices utilizing the Advanced Petroleum Market Model (APMM), a multifactorial fundamental analysis framework. The analysis reveals that both robust supply fundamentals and geopolitical risk premiums are currently supporting oil prices at elevated levels. 1. Introduction Global energy markets are experiencing upward pressure from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israeli military actions against Iranian targets have triggered immediate oil price responses, with Brent crude rising up to 10% and reaching the highest levels since January 2024 (Al Jazeera, 2024). The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade flows, remains central to geopolitical risk pricing in oil markets (CNBC, 2024). 2. Current APMM Market Assessment The Advanced Petroleum Market Model currently indicates a Bullish (Weak) regime with a composite score of 69.1 and a rising trend. Supply indicators are bullish, inventory and demand are neutral. The model's adaptive status shows it is successfully adjusting to current market conditions. 3. Market and Model-Based Scenario Analysis - Brent Crude: 5-7% increase to over $87/barrel - WTI Crude: 6% daily gain - Geopolitical Risk Premium: $8-12/barrel (Goldman Sachs, 2024) The APMM's current reading suggests oil markets are in a "Fundamental Support Regime" reinforced by geopolitical risk premiums. Geopolitical uncertainty is inherently bullish for oil prices as it increases supply disruption risks and drives precautionary demand. Scenario Probabilities - Base Scenario (65%): Bullish (Weak) regime persists, prices stabilize at $75-85/barrel - Escalation (25%): Strong Bullish regime, prices at $85-95/barrel - Extreme (10%): Extreme Bullish regime, prices above $100/barrel 4. Long-term and Policy Implications - Diversification: Importers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern oil - Strategic Reserves: Governments reconsider reserve strategies - Energy Transition: Geopolitical risks strengthen investments in renewables 5. Conclusion Despite robust supply, oil prices are supported by both fundamentals and persistent geopolitical risk premiums. The APMM reflects this environment with a Bullish (Weak) signal and rising trend. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key bullish factor for oil markets. References Al Jazeera. (2024). Oil prices spike as Israel strikes Iran amid Middle East tensions. Armstrong Economics. (2024). Oil Prices & the Israel-Iran Crisis - A Historical Perspective. BBC. (2024). Israel Iran: What could conflict mean for oil and gas prices? Chen, S., Liu, P., & Wang, J. (2024). Uncertainty about interest rates and crude oil prices. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 1-28. CNBC. (2024). Oil prices could spike to $95 if Iran-Israel conflict escalates, Goldman Sachs warns. Goldman Sachs. (2024). Commodities Research: Middle East Risk Premium in Oil Markets. Al-Shboul, M., & Alqaralleh, H. (2025). Dynamic Effects of Economic Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risks on Saudi Stock Market Returns. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(1), 12.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeTools
GBPUSD will continue to rise and break last week's highGBPUSD is correcting lower in the range at the end of the week. This pullback is heading towards the 1.350 support. There will be a bullish reaction at this area. Or if the selling pressure really takes over the market at this support area, then pay attention to the 1.346 bottom for the BUY strategy of this currency pair. On the other hand, 1.360 will prevent the price increase. It will act as strategic resistance before a new extended breakout to the upside. The uptrend is more likely to continue than the downtrend, so prioritizing BUY signals will bring better profits to the currency pair. Support: 1.350, 1.346 Resistance: 1.360, 1.366
Long
by VHT_Trader
Iran vs Israel Conflict: Which assets are being affected?The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has had a notable impact on global stock markets and currency pairs, primarily driven by concerns over oil supply disruptions and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Here's a breakdown of the affected assets: Stocks Overall Market Decline: Major global stock indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and India's Sensex and Nifty 50, have experienced declines following the escalation of tensions. Negatively Impacted Sectors/Stocks: Airlines & Travel: Companies like United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and cruise operators (e.g., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Carnival Corp.) have seen sharp losses due to surging fuel costs and reduced travel sentiment. Hotel operators (e.g., Hilton, Marriott) and car rental companies (e.g., Avis Budget Group, Hertz) also felt the impact. Consumer Discretionary: Companies tied to discretionary spending and those with high energy-input costs (e.g., General Motors, Ford, Target, Best Buy, Nike) have been negatively affected, as rising oil prices can impact consumer behaviour. Technology & Financials: Broad technology companies, particularly those producing consumer goods, and the financial sector have seen declines. US-listed Israeli Companies: Companies like Check Point Software Technologies, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Mobileye Global, and eToro Group experienced drops. Positively Impacted/Benefiting Sectors/Stocks: Oil & Energy: Oil prices surged, leading to gains for energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, and Diamondback Energy. Defence: Defence contractors like Lockheed Martin, RTX Corporation, and Northrop Grumman have rallied due to increased geopolitical uncertainty. Gold Miners: Shares of gold miners (e.g., Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti) rose as gold prices climbed, driven by safe-haven demand. Renewable Energy/EVs: Electric-vehicle maker Tesla and solar power companies like First Solar and SolarEdge Technologies saw gains, possibly as alternatives to fossil fuels. Currency Pairs Safe-Haven Currencies Strengthen: US Dollar (USD): The US dollar has rallied against most G7 currencies, benefiting from safe-haven flows. Japanese Yen (JPY): The Japanese Yen strengthened as investors sought safety. Swiss Franc (CHF): The Swiss Franc also gained alongside other safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices surged to multi-month highs, trading above $3,400 per troy ounce, reflecting strong safe-haven demand. Risk-Sensitive Currencies Weaken: Euro (EUR/USD): The EUR/USD pair retreated, with the Euro being "hardly damaged" initially but experiencing downward pressure from the escalating conflict. Australian Dollar (AUD) & New Zealand Dollar (NZD): These risk-sensitive Asian currencies weakened. Indian Rupee (INR): The Indian Rupee weakened against the US dollar due to the impact of rising crude oil prices on India, a major oil importer. While the immediate market response has shown volatility and a "risk-off" sentiment, some analysts suggest that the longer-term impact will depend on the conflict's duration and whether it escalates into a broader regional or global issue, particularly concerning oil supply disruptions.
FX:USOIL
by troias
Anycolor Inc Trade IdeaShowing strong momentum after a breakout to new all-time highs, driven by robust growth in its VTuber business and digital content ecosystem. The company just reported a 34% YoY revenue increase to ¥42.9 billion and a 31.7% rise in operating profit for FY2025, fueled by expansion in both its domestic and global VTuber operations, particularly through the “Nijisanji” brand Catalyst: Ongoing innovation, global expansion, and increasing monetization per VTuber are set to drive further earnings surprises and upside momentum.
TSE:5032Long
by zjcig
Gold Bullish ContinuationThe decision of the daily and weekly candles to close bullish shows a clear indication of further bullish intentions. As visible on the chart, Price has been ranging after mitigating a 4 hour Fair Value Gap and has stayed within the range. However, since it'll eventually have to make a decision, the possibility of a more upside movement appears to be more likely. Moreover, fundamentally, the rising geopolitical tensions further fuels its bullish fire as the demand for the favorite safe-haven asset increases - Gold. Furthermore, technically visible trading opportunities are visible on the chart - However, we may face a pull back at the Supply zone above current price as the 15 minute chart shows bearish divergence on the RSI. As a result, the occurrence of price making a higher high and the RSI making a Lower High heightens the possibility of a pull back to the Mitigation Block/ RBS (Resistance became Support) Zone of 3384-8867. Should price make a further drop below this level, a deeper fall may be anticipated. Always put your equity first, As tough as trading is, the upside is that opportunities always appear in the market. Don't blow your account and emotional balance on a trade or trade idea, another will come, maybe even better. Manage risks. Wish you success.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by oyemyk
Gold trading strategy june 13Yesterday's D1 candle was bullish, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Following that uptrend, the Asian session saw a strong price increase to a high of 3443. If there is still confirmation from the h4 candle above 3397, today will still be a bullish candle with a large amplitude at the end of the day. After reaching a monthly high, Gold is in a bearish correction at the end of the Asian session. This correction will last until it touches the support level of 3397, which is a good BUY signal. The target for BUY signals will be 3364 and this area will have a profit-taking reaction from Buyers, causing the price to fall. Gold may touch the pre-ATH level of 3394 and there will be a reaction. On the other hand, there is a sweep to 3376, which is considered a daily support zone and you can buy in this area. Support: 3398- 3376 Resistance 3464-3495
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VHT_Trader
6
Gold: silence on the charts—because the real money already movedThe gold market isn't reacting — it's confirming. The Israeli strikes on Iran? That’s the trigger. But the move started earlier. Price was already coiled, already positioned. All the market needed was a headline. And it got it. Price broke out of the accumulation channel and cleared $3,400 — a key structural level that’s acted as a battleground in past rotations. The move from $3,314 was no fluke — it was a textbook build: sweep the lows, reclaim structure, flip the highs. Volume spiked exactly where it needed to — this wasn’t emotional buying. This was smart money pulling the pin. Technicals are loaded: — Holding above $3,396–3,398 (0.618 Fibo + demand re-entry zone) — All major EMAs (including MA200) are now below price — RSI strong, no sign of exhaustion — Candles? Clean control bars — breakout, retest, drive — Volume profile above price = air pocket — resistance is thin to nonexistent up to $3,450+ Targets: — $3,447 — prior high — $3,484 — 1.272 extension — $3,530 — full 1.618 expansion — key upside target Fundamentals: Middle East is boiling. Iran is ready to retaliate. Israel is already escalating. In moments like these, gold isn't just a commodity — it's capital preservation. The dollar is rising — and gold still rallies. That means this isn’t about inflation, or rates. It’s about risk-off. Pure, institutional-level flight to safety. Tactical view: The breakout is done. Holding above $3,396 confirms the thesis. Pullbacks to that zone? Reloading points. While gold remains in the channel and momentum is clean, the only side that matters right now — is long. When price moves before the news — that’s not reaction. That’s preparation. Stay sharp.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TotoshkaTrades