LC EARNINGS PLAY – STRIKE WHILE IT'S HOT!**
🚨 **LC EARNINGS PLAY – STRIKE WHILE IT'S HOT!** 🚨
📅 **Earnings Season Heat Check: LC | Jul 29**
💰 **Positioning for a Post-Earnings POP!**
---
🔥 **The Setup:**
LC’s earnings momentum is real –
📈 TTM Rev Growth: **+13.1%**
💹 EPS Surprise Rate: **150% avg**
📊 75% Beat Rate History
💵 Analyst Consensus: **Strong Buy (1.8/5)**
---
📉 **Technical Tailwind:**
✅ Price above 20D + 200D MA
✅ RSI: **60.07** – room to run
📈 Volume Spike: **+61% above 10-day avg**
🚀 Options flow targeting **\$14 CALLS** w/ OI: **864** / Vol: **737**
---
📌 **TRADE IDEA**
🎯 Buy: **\$14.00 Call @ \$0.70**
📆 Exp: **Aug 15, 2025**
🎯 Target: **\$2.10** (Risk/Reward = 1:3)
🛑 Stop: **\$0.35**
---
⚠️ **Earnings Risk:** IV crush real.
🎯 Exit within 2 hours **post-EPS** if no move.
Macro tailwinds + financial sector rotation = 🚀 fuel.
**Beta = 2.45** → Big move potential incoming!
---
🧠 Confidence Level: **75%**
⏰ Timing: Pre-Earnings Close
🧾 Model-Driven Strategy | No Hype, Just Edge.
---
💥 Let’s ride the LC earnings wave – \$15+ in sight! 💥
\#LendingClub #LC #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #TradingView #StocksToWatch #CallOption #Fintech #SwingTrade #EarningsHustle #BullishSetup #IVCrush #EarningsGamma #ShortTermTrade
Fundamental Analysis
Latest on Fed rate cut debateThe Fed isn’t expected to cut rates this week, but this FOMC meeting should still be very interesting.
Powell will need to address growing pressure from board members Waller and Bowman, who’ve both called for cuts, citing limited inflation impact from tariffs.
Still, Powell is just one of 12 votes on the FOMC, and there’s little sign of broader support for a cut.
With the labour market steady and early signs of tariff-driven inflation, the Fed has reason to hold. The rate decision is due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This decision will further widen the rift between the Fed and President Trump, whose frustration has grown in recent weeks, with renewed attacks on Powell’s leadership.
The tension has drawn international attention. On Monday, the IMF issued a warning about political interference in central banks, which can pose a threat to global financial stability.
MKR/USDT 4H Chart📉 Short-term situation:
The price is currently trading around 2028 USDT, after a sharp decline from around 2273 USDT (resistance).
The support level around 2000 USDT is currently being tested (coinciding with the SMA 200 – blue line).
A dynamic uptrend line (orange) is also visible, which could act as a key support level in the event of further declines.
🔍 Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance:
🔴 2188 USDT – recent local high and convergence with the SMA 21.
🟢 2273 USDT – major resistance; previous rebound and point of significant price reaction.
Support:
🔵 1980 USDT – local support + SMA200.
🟠 Uptrend line (~1940–1960 USDT).
🔴 1832 USDT – stronger horizontal support with multiple confirmations.
🔴 1623 USDT – very strong support, from previous lows.
📊 Technical indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current value: ~42, neutral, but approaching the oversold zone (<30).
The RSI is falling rapidly, suggesting selling pressure, but a reaction is possible near current support.
MACD:
Negative signal: signal line crossing from above + descending histogram.
Indicates a continuation of the correction, but we are approaching the potential exhaustion of the downward momentum.
📈 Moving averages:
EMA/SMA 50 and 200:
The price is currently testing the SMA200 – crucial for the medium-term trend.
SMA21 (red) and SMA50 (green) – have reversed downward, which may suggest a weakening of bullish momentum.
🔮 Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish scenario (confirmation of support):
A rebound from 1980–2000 USDT and further upward movement.
Potential target: first ~2180 USDT, then ~2273 USDT.
The condition is a demand response at the current level + an improvement in the RSI/MACD.
🔴 Bearish scenario (breakout of support):
If the 1980 USDT level is broken and the price falls below the uptrend line, a continued decline to 1832 USDT or even lower is possible.
Confirmation will be a strong bearish candle with high volume and a further decline in the RSI/MACD.
SILVER Is About to Collapse? Watch This Critical Supply Zone!Price recently tapped a high near 39.20 before sharply rejecting from the 38.80–39.20 supply zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The current structure shows:
- Supply zone tested and rejected
- Likely return to the previous demand zone (36.50–36.00)
- RSI is turning down, confirming loss of momentum
A pullback toward 38.30–38.50, followed by a bearish continuation toward the 36.50 area, which acts as a key structural and institutional support.
🗓️ Seasonality
Historically, July is bullish for silver:
Last 5Y average: +0.89%
Last 2Y average: +2.18%
However, August–September are bearish months:
August: mildly positive, but weak
September: consistently negative across all time frames (-0.86% to -1.10%)
This increases the probability of a downward move starting in early August, in line with current price action rejection.
🪙 Commitment of Traders (COT) – July 22
Non-Commercials (speculators):
Longs: +656
Shorts: -516
Commercials (hedging):
Longs: +1,337
Shorts: +916
➡️ Commercials are increasing both long and short exposure, while non-commercials remain net long — a sign of moderate optimism.
However, long positioning is slowing down compared to previous weeks. A potential exhaustion in bullish momentum is forming.
📉 Sentiment
52% short vs 48% long
Volume: more lots on the short side (492 vs 454)
Sentiment remains neutral to slightly contrarian bullish, but not extreme. This may allow for a fake breakout before a deeper move down.
🧩 Operational Summary
Main bias: Bearish short to mid-term (starting August), supported by:
- Technical rejection at supply
- Negative seasonal tendencies ahead
- RSI showing momentum loss
- COT showing stabilization, not accumulation
Crude Oil Spikes - Russia / Ukraine / USA sanction? Concerns about the possibility of tighter global oil supplies are supporting crude prices after President Trump warned of "secondary sanctions" if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days.
These sanctions have absolutely burned the shorts in oil and can cause a 3 bar surge on the daily chart if crude breaks this channel.
Keep you eye on the daily 200 MA...if it holds above we should push higher on crude.
FOMC RATE DECISION TOMORROW - Tune into our live stream.
Oil Market Sentiment Shifts After Trump’s Urgent Warning, but...On June 23, 2025, at 9:35 AM, President Donald J. Trump issued a stark warning via social media:
"EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!"
Since his post, oil prices experienced a notable bullish impulse. From both fundamental and technical perspectives, the market is now approaching a 16-hour supply zone, which could serve as a potential resistance area.
Additionally, I’ve observed a divergence in trader positioning: non-commercial traders increased their short positions significantly last week, while retail traders remain long. This divergence between price action and non-commercial positions suggests a possible shift in momentum, and I am currently eyeing a short setup.
As always, I encourage traders to conduct their own analysis. The trader featured below operates on the D1 timeframe and focuses on scalping, which can be useful for short-term entries.
Stay cautious and keep an eye on how the market reacts near the identified supply zone.
✅ Please share your thoughts about CL1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
MRNA: Bullish Setup Ahead of Earnings & FOMCMRNA: Bullish Setup Ahead of Earnings & FOMC
Moderna (MRNA) appears to have found a bottom near $23.50, based on recent price behavior. Following that level, the stock began accumulating, suggesting renewed buying interest. This was confirmed when MRNA decisively broke above $28.50, signaling a shift in momentum.
The company is scheduled to report earnings on 01 August 2025. While there is a chance the results could be positive, even a miss may not result in a significant downside move. The real market risk lies with the upcoming FOMC meeting and interest rate decision tomorrow.
Depending on the tone of the Fed and rate guidance, MRNA should take the price direction. I expect the price to remain supported above the $28.50 zone, even in a pullback scenario.
Bullish targets I’m watching: $37.50, $44.50, and $48.50.
PS: In my view, using Call Options with longer expiration dates offers better risk management. You don’t need to put your entire account at risk in one trade. Call Options let you control exposure in a better way.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Plug Power (PLUG): Recovery Play or Terminal Decline?Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) , a company focused on green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, stands as one of the most emblematic examples of a boom and bust cycle in the speculative clean energy sector.
It reached an all-time high of USD 75.49 in January 2021 , driven by market enthusiasm over the energy transition. However, since then, the stock has collapsed by more than 99% , hitting a low of USD 0.69 on May 16, 2025 . It currently trades below USD 2, reflecting a massive loss in market capitalization and deep investor distrust.
🧮 Fundamental Analysis
1. Business Model
Plug Power develops integrated systems for the generation, storage, and distribution of green hydrogen, mainly targeting logistics, mobility, and high-energy industrial sectors.
2. Financial Issues
Persistent losses: the company has been unprofitable for years. In 2024, it posted a net loss of over USD 700 million.
High operating costs and poor efficiency in hydrogen project execution.
Accounting concerns: the SEC flagged accounting issues in 2021 and 2022, further damaging institutional confidence.
3. Capital Dilution
Plug has repeatedly financed its operations through equity offerings, significantly diluting shareholders. Recent rounds were issued at very low prices, worsening the drop in share value.
4. Cash Position
As of June 2025, the company requires new capital to continue operations, facing the risk of issuing more shares or convertible debt under unfavorable terms.
⚠️ Key Risks
Delisting risk if the stock doesn’t remain above USD 1.00 in the short term.
Bankruptcy risk (Chapter 11) if no strategic financing or partnerships are secured.
The green hydrogen sector is still not cost-competitive without subsidies, and competition is fierce (Air Liquide, Linde, Bloom Energy, etc.).
✅ Opportunities
Potential to secure strategic alliances with utilities, automakers, or industrial partners.
Ongoing green subsidies from the U.S. and EU may offer short-term support.
Much of the negative outlook seems already priced in: current market cap is around USD 1.8 billion, with physical assets and contracts still in place.
📉 Technical Analysis
From its all-time low of USD 0.69, PLUG staged a strong rebound, gaining +294% to reach USD 2.03 on July 21, 2025 . It now trades in a consolidation zone between the 23.6% (USD 1.71) and 38.2% (USD 1.52) Fibonacci retracements , which may act as short-term technical support.
This is a high-risk, high-volatility stock , capable of generating outsized returns — or total losses. Strict risk management is essential.
Repeated Rejections at the 200-EMA
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA 200) has acted as a dynamic resistance throughout PLUG’s multi-year downtrend. Over the past three years, the stock has attempted to break above it on at least three occasions — in 2022, 2023, and 2025 — but failed each time.
The most recent attempt, in July 2025, ended with a reversal after reaching USD 2.10, which also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high. Unless the stock breaks above the 200-EMA with strong volume and an ascending price structure, the bearish trend remains intact.
🧠 Speculative Position
We are currently positioned with a bullish options strategy targeting a speculative upside:
📈 Buy CALL USD 2.00 (exp. January 16, 2026)
🛡️ Sell CALL USD 5.00 (same expiration)
→ This forms a Bull Call Spread, limiting downside risk while maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio.
🧾 Conclusion
Plug Power is no longer a fundamentally sound investment , but rather a high-risk speculative play , comparable to a synthetic long-term call option . If the company survives, restructures its balance sheet, and secures strategic partners, the upside could be substantial — but the risk of total capital loss remains very real .
🧭 Suitable only for experienced traders with speculative capital and disciplined technical execution.
7/29/25 - $pen - It's a LT buy... seems "reasonable" into print7/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PEN
It's a LT buy... seems "reasonable" into print
- medical device company... peripheral thrombectomy products
- it's never been cheap, probably for a good reason
- about 3% fcf yield... mid teens growth... "not" health insurance (which i think is probably part of what's happening here... the read thru from perhaps pricing/ maybe?)
- the way i see this: it's a winner, it's insulated from money changer games (insurance), it's solving real world challenges
- so i'd ideally like to dip buy here... unclear if i'll play the print
- but ultimately i'd expect this stock to head higher. LT winner.
V
7/29/25 - $bkng - probs a beat...7/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BKNG
probs a beat...
- while everyone's happy to pay 150x for PLTR... there r a lot of consumer names that seem to be trapped in trump tariff paralysis.
- what happened... is trump... caused a dip... consumer spending paused... then nothing happened... and all that pent up demand came right back in the last quarter... most consumer names are demonstrating just this
- so while on any given consumer name there r specifics that i'm not tuned into... and also some biz models r ostensibly better than others e.g. bkng > abnb
- at 5% fcf yield, leadership position... not even 30x PE
- i just don't get what's not to like here, remember: own the consumer interface (these r the winners in the next 5 yrs... not the backend/ not the saas... the person who owns the interface wins)
V
GOLD → Formation of a trading range. 3345?FX:XAUUSD confirms support for the local range. A false breakdown has formed and the price has returned to the buying zone. We are waiting for the bulls to take the initiative...
Gold is trying to recover after falling to $3302, remaining under pressure ahead of key events in the US: the publication of GDP data and the Fed's decision on interest rates. Support is provided by a pause in the dollar's growth, expectations of an extension of the US-China trade truce, and growing demand for safe-haven assets amid a surge in oil prices due to the threat of new sanctions against Russia. However, the sustainability of growth is in question: the dollar may strengthen thanks to optimism about the US economy and progress in negotiations.
A false breakdown of the support range is forming. Focus on 3310-3320. If the bulls keep the price above this zone, gold will have a chance to grow. BUT! If the price starts to contract and stick to 3310, we can expect the decline to continue...
Resistance levels: 3345, 3375
Support levels: 3320, 3310, 3287
The two-day movement has most likely exhausted its potential, or the market has decided to recover slightly due to the unpredictability factor. A false breakdown of support could trigger a pullback to the strong level of 3345, from which a rebound could form (either before growth or before the continuation of the decline; it is necessary to monitor the reaction and the market background...).
Best regards, R. Linda!
7/29/25 - $v - Probs a buy, just not for me7/29/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: $V
Probs a buy, just not for me
- over 3% fcf yields, growing, consumer spending well
- over time (probably long duration) I think the biz model probably gets eroded, but also mgmt has done a nice job evolving, perhaps they keep up with the times etc.
- don't think anything is broken here
- all else equal a nice barometer for the consumer names in my portfolio (deck, lulu)
- i'd guess stock is higher on this print
- just have too many other things going on to play this $666 bn EV
V
BTC/USD Daily Outlook: Support & Target Levels IdentifiedBitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis:
Price is currently at $117,758.70, showing a slight decline. Key support levels are marked at $114,785.88 and $107,576.12, while targets are projected near $129,584.15 and $129,692.48. Chart suggests a possible upward channel, with both bullish and bearish scenarios mapped.
$PYPL - nice value gap just formed. Any takers?NASDAQ:PYPL smashed through the $75 resistance a week ago, signaling strong bullish momentum. Holding above the 50 SMA, the stock is poised for further gains. Then earlier 10% dip from mixed signals. UltraAlgo flagged it early, giving traders a heads-up of a potential Buy signal in the making. Charting tomorrow’s giants with UltraAlgo.
TGS (TGS Ltd.) – Breakout Play with Strong Upside Potential🚀 Trade Idea: TGS (TGS Ltd.) – Breakout Play with Strong Upside Potential
📈 Entry: $29.90 (Breakout above resistance)
🛑 Stop Loss: $26.30 (Below key support & SMA-50)
🎯 Take Profit: $37.13 (~24% upside, near next resistance zone)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 (Favorable setup)
🔍 Analysis Breakdown
📊 Technical Setup
Trend: Daily trend is consolidating, but 4H/1H show bullish momentum.
Key Levels:
Support: $26.30 (SMA-50 & recent swing low).
Resistance: $30 (psychological level, previous highs).
Indicators:
MACD (4H): Bullish crossover, supporting upside.
RSI (Daily): ~65 (neutral, no overbought signal yet).
Volume: Increasing on upward moves (confirms interest).
💰 Fundamental Backing
Strong Revenue & Earnings Growth (See previous analysis).
Undervalued Metrics (P/B, P/S) suggest room for expansion.
Low Debt (Score: 10/10) reduces downside risk.
🎯 Why This Trade?
✅ Breakout Play: A close above $30 confirms bullish continuation.
✅ Strong Fundamentals: Earnings growth supports higher valuation.
✅ Low-Risk Entry: Tight stop below support.
⚠️ Key Risks:
Failure to hold $30 could lead to retest of $26.30.
Market-wide pullback could delay momentum.
📉 Trade Management
Add-on: Consider scaling in above $31.50 (confirmation of trend).
Trailing Stop: Move SL to $28.50 after hitting $33.
📌 Final Thought: TGS has strong upside potential if it breaks $30. The 1:3 R/R makes this a high-conviction trade.
👨💻 Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
#TGS #Breakout #Stocks #Trading #Investing
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research before trading.
SLA Moderate Bullish Setup – Weekly Play for 08/01 Expiry
## ⚡ TSLA Moderate Bullish Setup – Weekly Play for 08/01 Expiry
🎯 *"Volume confirms it. RSI supports it. Time to strike—or stand by."*
---
### 🔍 Market Intelligence Snapshot:
📊 **Consensus**: Moderately Bullish
📈 **Weekly RSI**: Rising
📉 **Daily RSI**: Still Neutral (momentum building)
📉 **VIX**: Low → Great environment for call buying
📦 **Volume**: Strong institutional activity across models
---
### ✅ Recommended Trade Setup:
**TSLA \$340 CALL (Exp: Aug 1)**
💰 *Entry*: \~\$0.88
📈 *Target*: \$1.38
🛑 *Stop*: \$0.35
📆 *DTE*: 3 Days
🎯 *Entry*: Market Open
⚖️ *Confidence*: 65%
---
### 🔧 Model Blended Strategy Notes:
* Meta & Anthropic: Suggest ATM/ITM (\$327.50–\$330) → safer, higher cost
* Google & xAI: Prefer \$340–\$342.50 for a better risk/reward
* DeepSeek: Targets \$320 but with heavier premium
🧠 *Takeaway*: \$340 offers a balanced shot — affordable, but still responsive to upside flow.
---
### ⚠️ Risk Notes:
* ⏳ Time Decay → Quick exits = better outcomes
* 📰 External news or earnings reactions = watch for sudden volatility
* 🎯 Position size = keep light due to only 3 DTE
---
### 📊 TRADE SNAPSHOT (JSON):
```json
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 340.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-01",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 1.38,
"stop_loss": 0.35,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.88,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-07-29 10:16:14 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
### 🧠 Quick Captions for Social:
* “TSLA bulls waking up? \$340C looks lit for the week 📈🔥”
* “Call volume surging. RSI rising. Low VIX. This \ NASDAQ:TSLA 340C might run 💥”
* “Risk-managed breakout shot — in and out fast 🎯”
NVDA Bullish Weekly Trade Setup** – 2025-07-29
📈 **NVDA Bullish Weekly Trade Setup** – 2025-07-29
🚀 *"Momentum meets money flow!"*
### 🔍 Market Snapshot:
* 💥 **Call/Put Ratio**: 2.47 → Bullish sentiment confirmed
* 🧠 **RSI**: Rising on Daily & Weekly → Momentum building
* 🔕 **Low VIX**: Favors call strategies (cheap premiums)
* ⚠️ **Caution**: Light volume = soft institutional backing
---
### 🔧 Recommended Options Trade:
**🟢 NVDA \$182.50 CALL (Exp: Aug 1)**
💰 *Entry*: \~\$0.53 (Mid)
📈 *Profit Target*: \$0.69 – \$1.06
🛑 *Stop Loss*: \$0.32
📆 *DTE*: 3 days
🔄 *Entry Timing*: Market Open
✅ *Confidence*: 75%
🔥 *Theta & Gamma Risk*: Elevated — manage position size!
---
### 💡 Why This Trade?
✅ RSI Strength across timeframes
✅ Flow favors upside
✅ Cheap premium in a low-volatility regime
🟡 Just watch that volume…
---
📊 **TRADE SNAPSHOT (JSON):**
```json
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 182.50,
"expiry": "2025-08-01",
"confidence": 0.75,
"profit_target": 1.06,
"stop_loss": 0.32,
"size": 10,
"entry_price": 0.53,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-07-29 11:59:10 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
📣 **Taglines for Sharing:**
* "NVDA setup is 🔥—momentum + flow = GO!"
* "Gamma risk is real—but so is this profit window 💸"
* "Short-term sprint or fade? This call has range."
AMD Weekly Trade Alert (2025-07-29)
**🔥 AMD Weekly Trade Alert (2025-07-29) 🔥**
💹 *Momentum Confirmed. Calls Loaded. Let’s Ride.*
📈 **Key Bullish Signals**
✔️ Daily RSI: **83.2** (Rising)
✔️ Weekly RSI: **79.9** (Rising)
✔️ Call/Put Ratio: **2.03** 🧨
✔️ Volatility: Low (VIX = 15.2)
⚠️ Volume Weak (0.9x) – But not a dealbreaker.
---
**🎯 TRADE SETUP**
🔹 **Ticker**: \ NASDAQ:AMD
🔹 **Strategy**: Weekly Naked Call
🔹 **Strike**: \$185C
🔹 **Entry**: \$0.66
🔹 **Profit Target**: \$1.32 (100%)
🔹 **Stop Loss**: \$0.33
🔹 **Expiry**: 2025-08-01
🔹 **Size**: 3 Contracts
🔹 **Confidence**: 75%
---
**🧠 WHY THIS WORKS**
🔋 Momentum → STRONG
💰 Institutions are loading up calls
🧘 VIX = calm
⚡ Short gamma risk = fast payoff or cut
---
📢 **Watchlist it. Trade it. Exit fast.**
💬 Comment “🔥AMD” if you’re in.
🔁 Repost if you see \$190 coming.
\#AMD #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #TradingView #WeeklySetup #MomentumPlay #BullishSignal #MarketMomentum
Live Cattle Futures (LEV2025) – Approaching Breakout Zone🐄 Live Cattle Futures (LEV2025) – Approaching Breakout Zone
WaverVanir DSS models show LEV2025 pushing into a key resistance band near 225.65–228.87 — the "weak high" zone where institutional sellers previously stepped in. Price remains in a clear bullish structure with clean BOS and rising demand.
🔍 Chart Structure Highlights:
📈 Trendline support holding since early June
🟨 Price sitting just below 1.382 Fib (228.87) – strong resistance
🟩 If broken, next fib extensions align at:
TP1: 234.97
TP2: 239.70
TP3: 245.45
🟦 Key downside structure support = 208.62 (CHoCH zone)
🧠 Options Flow (Aug–Dec 2025)
🟢 Call Buying: 224C, 225C, 226C, 242C – strong bullish pressure
🔴 Put Selling: 224P, 222P, 210P – income strategies defending downside
💡 Flow favors continuation higher, but many traders capping profits → suggests grind higher, not a parabolic run yet
📈 Strategy Insight
VolanX DSS bias: Bullish with caution
Break above 228.87 confirms squeeze toward 234–240 range
Failure to break = short-term fade back to 218–212 support band
🎯 Watch Levels
Breakout Confirm: Close above 229.00
Invalidation: Daily close below 218.62
Next Target Zone: 234.97 – 239.70 (1.618–1.786 extension)
#LEV2025 #LiveCattle #SMC #VolanXProtocol #CommodityFutures #OptionsFlow #FibStrategy #WaverVanir #DSS #Agriculture #MacroTrading #CMEFutures
Graphite India (1M TF) - Big Technical Base ►NSE:GRAPHITE
⚙️ Materials: Commodity Cycle Turnaround
(Green energy metals, China recovery)
Sector context: India’s rising graphite demand (e.g. electrode expansion for steel, battery material on horizon) aligns well with Graphite India’s positioning.
►Graphite India is the largest producer of graphite electrodes in the country and one of the largest in the world.
At the time of charting NSE:GRAPHITE PA was at 550
PA in 1D TF has bounced from Support
Trend 1M TF: Long-term Symmetrical 📐triangle formation since 2018 highs — price now testing upper trendline
Monthly shows range‑bound to mild consolidation since topping near ₹623 and bouncing around ₹540‑560.
Multi-year consolidation forming a textbook volatility squeeze, often a precursor to explosive directional moves. Volume compression inside the triangle suggests strong hands accumulating.
Candlestick structure: Bullish engulfing-type recovery candle forming off the trendline support. Breakout Energy above 586 = potential energy. A monthly close👀 above the downtrend line may unlock significant upside ⇗ momentum.
Daily MACD turning positive, weekly and monthly crossovers 🟢suggest building momentum.
Monthly Resistance line 762🔴 Pivot line 🔵611 Support🟢512
₹575–586 is the breakout threshold. Above the pivot and away ⇗
Post-break, next projection target : ₹900 (≈+60%), followed by ₹1,300. (Text Book)
📊 Fundamental Alignment
🔋 EV Battery Anode Narrative: Global lithium/graphite demand surging → Graphite India well-positioned as key electrode supplier.
🌍 China Supply Risks = India graphite players gain global relevance.
💼 FIIs Inflow: Recent uptick (+1.7%) hints at sectoral re-rating in anticipation of capex cycles and commodity upturn.
📉 Valuation Context: After steep de-rating post-2018, current price offers favorable risk-reward compared to earnings expectations and sector re-alignment.
► Graphite electrodes are the main heating element used in an electric arc furnace
extremely high levels of heat generated in EAF.
Graphite electrodes are divided into 4 Types: RP Graphite electrodes, HP Graphite electrodes, SHP Graphite electrodes, UHP Graphite electrodes.
► Needle coke👀 is a key ingredient in the production of graphite electrodes for electric arc furnaces (EAFs) in the steel industry.
🧰 Strategic Outlook
►we'll follow this trade closely and within incoming week we'll up a close up view of 4h TF
Bias: Strongly Bullish on breakout; Neutral if it stalls below ₹550.
Targets: ₹900 (swing), ₹1,300 (positional)
ideal for swing/long-term portfolio adds
Alternate Case: Breakdown below🔻₹480 negates pattern; re-evaluate around ₹400 for demand re-entry.
Always DYOR
See you on the other side
💡 Reflective Close:
“What if true breakouts don’t come from hype — but from time, patience, and the quiet work of smart money preparing long before headlines catch up? Are you watching the price, or are you watching the behavior behind the price?”
Why Are Markets Rising Despite the Tariffs?Because of the
1) Set timeline on finalizing the tariff rates and
2) The ongoing negotiations,
They aimed at striking a balanced deal between the U.S. and its trading partners.
The Liberation Day tariffs were announced on 2nd April, and markets initially crashed in response. However, just seven days later, on 9th April, the U.S. postponed the higher tariff increases for most countries by 90 days. Since then, markets have rebounded and even broken above their all-time highs set in December last year.
Now that the dust is settling with the expiration of timeline and ongoing negotiations, the big question is:
Where will the markets head next?
Mirco Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
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H4 Analysis. It's sell or buy let's see?
Gold is currently trading near 3323 after a recent sharp drop from the 3431 high. The price is respecting the downtrend line and has tested the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 3281 as support.
📉 Bearish Outlook:
If the price fails to break above 3314–3325, we could see a continuation toward the 3282 and possibly 3281 support zone.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and close above 3355 (Fib 0.618) could push the market toward the 3431 resistance zone (Sell Area).
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3355 / 3431
Support: 3314 / 3308 / 3282
#XAGUSD: A Strong Bullish Move, Possible Target at $45?Silver is currently experiencing a correction, but the overall price remains bullish. Analysing the data, we can see a potential price reversal in our area of interest. Following the recent higher high, price is poised to create another record high. We should closely monitor volume and price behaviour. A strong volume signal would indicate a potential bullish move in the future.
Good luck and trade safely.
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