Get started

Fundamental Analysis

BITCOIN → Buyback bar. Chance of growth to 108,000BINANCE:BTCUSDT is trading in a fairly wide range of 100,600 - 110,400. The market is stagnating due to fundamental uncertainty, but the risks of a decline are quite high... After the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin broke the bullish structure on the market and managed to test the local level of 102500, from where a fairly aggressive phase of buying out the fall began within one trading session. The market is defending the structure quite aggressively. The chart shows a local range forming with strong levels at 102500 and 106200. Accordingly, the price may remain in this range for a long time (in which case an intraday trading strategy can be considered). However, if Bitcoin starts to stick to one of the boundaries, then we can consider the price leaving the range, but based on the structure of the uptrend, correction, and the formation of a buyback bar, it would be logical to see an attempt to break through resistance with the aim of continuing growth. Resistance levels: 106200, 108200, 110400 Support levels: 102500, 100600 On D1, there are no prerequisites for a strong decline. The market is buying up knives and trying to stay afloat (in consolidation). In the medium term, there may be an attempt to retest 102500 - 100600 due to the liquidity pool. But locally, the market may form an attempt to grow to 108200 Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
37
Bitcoin Strategic Interval, CME Dislocation and Macro Friction.⊢ 𝟙⟠ - BTC/USDT - Binance - (CHART: 1W) - (June 17, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $106,851.31. ⊢ I. ⨀ Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval - (1W): ▦ EMA21 – ($96,818.00): ∴ The current candle closes +10.3% above the EMA21, maintaining bullish dominance over the mid-term dynamic average; ∴ This is the 17th consecutive weekly candle closing above the EMA21 since its reclaim in February 2025, forming a structurally intact uptrend; ∴ No violation or wick-close below the EMA21 has occurred since April, and the distance from price to EMA21 remains within a standard deviation of mid-trend movement. ✴ Conclusion: The trend is active and preserved. EMA21 acts as dynamic support and bullish pressure zone. A reversion would only be expected if weekly closes return below $98K with volume confirmation. ⊢ ▦ SMA200 – ($48,969.73): ∴ The 200-week simple moving average remains untouched since early 2023, never tested during the current cycle; ∴ The slope of the SMA200 is positive and gradually increasing, indicating a long-term structural trend recovery; ∴ Price stands +118% above the SMA200, a level historically associated with mid-cycle rallies or overheated continuation phases. ✴ Conclusion: The SMA200 confirms long-term bullish structure. Its current distance from price makes it irrelevant for immediate action but critical as the absolute invalidation level of the macro trend. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku – Kumo | Tenkan | Kijun: ∴ Price is above the Kumo cloud, with Span A ($107,172.16) and Span B ($98,562.38) creating a bullish tunnel of support; ∴ The Kijun-sen rests at $95,903.19, slightly below EMA21, and aligns with the last strong horizontal range; ∴ Chikou Span is free from historical candles, confirming trend continuity under Ichimoku principles. ✴ Conclusion: All Ichimoku components are aligned bullish. Pullbacks to the Kijun around $96K would be healthy within a macro-uptrend, and only sub-cloud closes would question this formation. ⊢ ▦ Fibonacci - (Swing Low $49,000 – High $111,980): ∴ Bitcoin remains between the (0.236 Fibo - $97,116.72) and local top at $111,980, showing respect for fib-based resistance; ∴ The (0.5 Fibo - $80,490.00) has not been retested since March, confirming the range compression toward upper quadrants; ∴ Weekly price is consolidating under fib extension with decreasing body size, suggesting strength with pause. ✴ Conclusion: The Fibonacci structure confirms bullish extension phase. If $97K breaks, retracement to (0.382 Fibo - $87,921.64) is expected. Otherwise, the breakout above $112K enters full projection territory. ⊢ ▦ MACD – (Values: 1,077.98 | 5,963.81 | 4,885.82): ∴ MACD line remains above signal line for the third consecutive week, recovering from a prior bearish cross in April; ∴ The histogram has printed higher bars for four weeks, but the slope of growth is decelerating; ∴ Positive cross occurred just below the zero-line, which often results in delayed reactions or failures unless reinforced by volume. ✴ Conclusion: MACD signals a weak but persistent momentum recovery. Reaffirmation depends on histogram expansion above 1,500+ and signal spread widening. ⊢ ▦ RSI – (Close: 64.37 | MA: 57.56): ∴ The RSI is in the bullish upper quadrant, but without overbought extension, suggesting active buying without euphoria; ∴ The RSI has been above its moving average since mid-May, maintaining a healthy angle; ∴ Momentum is not diverging from price yet, but is approaching the 70 zone, historically a point of hesitation. ✴ Conclusion: RSI confirms controlled strength. Further advance without consolidation may trigger premature profit-taking. Above 70, caution increases without being bearish. ⊢ ▦ Volume - (16.97K BTC): ∴ Weekly volume is slightly above the 20-week average, marking a minor recovery in participation; ∴ There is no volume spike to validate a breakout, which is common in compressive ranges near resistance; ∴ Volume has been declining since mid-May, forming a local divergence with price highs. ✴ Conclusion: Volume profile supports current levels but does not confirm breakout potential. A rejection with strong volume will mark local exhaustion. ⊢ II. ∆ CME Technical Dislocation – BTC1! Futures: ▦ CME GAP – BTC1! – ($107,445.00): ∴ The CME Futures opened this week at $105,060.00 and closed the previous session at $107,445.00; ∴ A clear unfilled gap persists between $105,060.00 and $107,900.00, with price action hovering just above the top edge; ∴ Bitcoin has a consistent historical behavior of returning to close such gaps within a short- to mid-term range. ✴ Conclusion: The unfilled CME gap acts as a gravitational technical force. As long as price remains below $109K without volume expansion, the probability of revisiting the $105K area remains elevated. ⊢ III. ∫ On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Inflow Total - (All Exchanges): ∴ Current inflow volume remains below the 1,000 Bitcoin daily threshold, indicating no panic selling or institutional exits; ∴ This inflow level corresponds to accumulation or holding phases, rather than distribution; ∴ The pattern matches a neutral-to-positive mid-cycle environment. ✴ Conclusion: There is no structural on-chain pressure. As long as inflows remain low, risk of capitulation or distribution is minimal. ⊢ ▦ Spot Taker CVD - (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) – (All Exchanges): ∴ The 90-day CVD shows continued dominance of taker buys over sells, reflecting ongoing demand strength in spot markets; ∴ However, the curve is flattening, suggesting buyers are meeting resistance or fading interest; ∴ No sharp reversal in the CVD curve is detected — only saturation. ✴ Conclusion: Demand remains dominant, but the pace is decelerating. Without renewed volume, this curve may revert or plateau. ⊢ ▦ Exchange Inflow Mean - (MA7) – (All Exchanges): ∴ The 7-day moving average of exchange inflow continues to decline steadily; ∴ This metric often precedes calm phases or pre-breakout plateaus; ∴ Historical patterns show similar inflow behavior before prior volatility expansions. ✴ Conclusion: A period of silence is unfolding. Reduced mean inflow suggests price is awaiting external catalysts for movement. ⊢ ▦ Funding Rates – (Binance): ∴ Current funding rates are neutral, with slight positive bias, suggesting balanced long-short sentiment; ∴ No extreme spikes indicate absence of excessive leverage; ∴ This equilibrium typically precedes significant directional moves. ✴ Conclusion: Market is leveled. Funding neutrality reflects hesitation and prepares ground for upcoming directional choice. ⊢ IV. ⚖️ Macro–Geopolitical Axis – (Powell, Middle East & BTC/XAU): ▦ MACRO CONTEXT: ∴ Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Wednesday (June 19), with markets anticipating remarks on rate stability or future hikes; ∴ Ongoing tensions in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) elevate risk-off behavior in traditional markets; ∴ Bitcoin has triggered a rare Golden Cross vs. Gold, as noted by U.Today, signaling digital strength over legacy value. ✴ Conclusion: Macro remains the primary external catalyst. Powell’s statement will determine short-term volatility. Until then, Bitcoin floats between its technical support and CME magnetism, with gold dynamics providing long-term bullish backdrop. ⊢ ⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis! ⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⊢
by Magister_Arcanvm
2
GPLD (XAUUSD) Breakout or Trap? Triangle Breakout AheadGold (XAUUSD) is forming an Ascending Triangle pattern, approaching a crucial resistance zone. Price action indicates potential for either a breakout or a false breakout (trap). Key targets and rejection levels are clearly marked on the chart. Stay alert for a possible rejection near the upper trendline or a breakout confirmation above the resistance zone. This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Smart_Trading_Strategy
4
6/16/25 - $qubt - 20% short. ice cold veins.6/16/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QUBT 20% short. ice cold veins. - puts/ size managed approps. - be warned, this company won't likely ever deliver a product. - therefore, it's very likely worth exactly zero. - i'll take it to 30% if i need to in the next few sessions leading up to it's "index inclusion" where it will get absolutely decimated as funds find it an "easy" funding short on the mgn. - mgmt will have a hard time testifying in court why they are making various misleading statements which are likely fraudulent and at worst criminal. but that's just a guess. - alas who knows. - i don't have a crystal ball - but i know a donut when i see one. V
NASDAQ:QUBTShort
by VROCKSTAR
2
EURCHF: Get Ready For Another Bullish Movement -UpdateEURCHF: Get Ready For Another Bullish Movement -Update The EURCHF pair has tested a major support zone for the fourth time since December 2023. This level also marks the lowest price in years. If this support holds, EURCHF could rebound towards key resistance levels: 0.9410, 0.9425, 0.9485, 0.9545, and 0.9600. ✅On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its latest interest rate decision, with expectations pointing to a 25 basis point cut, bringing rates down to 0%. This move could put the Swiss franc (CHF) at a significant disadvantage against other major currencies, many of which still maintain relatively high interest rates. However, the extent of CHF weakness remains uncertain, as broader monetary policy and market sentiment will play a crucial role. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
3
GBPJPY I Expect a Rally from the Buy Zone in the 1H Time FrameDescription: I'm viewing the 195.116–194.845 range on GBPJPY as a strong buy zone. My target is 196.088. Once the trade setup becomes active or the target is reached, I’ll be sharing an update here. Stay tuned! I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
Long
by TraderTilki
5
Have you caught up with this golden opportunity?The 4-hour K-line pattern of gold shows that the upward trend remains intact, focusing on the strong support range of 3360-3365 (technical resonance with the 5-week moving average). Before the price effectively breaks below the support band, the bulls still have upward momentum, otherwise the trend may reverse. The 3365-3400 range is maintained for intraday fluctuations. The gold operation strategy recommends arranging long orders in the 3370-3375 area when the price falls back, and adding positions to long positions if the support of 3360-3365 is broken. Operation strategy: Gold recommends going long near 3370-3375 now, and adding positions to long positions in the support area of ​​3360-3365 when the price breaks, with the target of 3380-3390. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
1
Trading at the Market OpenTrading at the Market Open The market open marks a critical juncture in the financial world, presenting a unique blend of opportunities and challenges for traders. This article explores the essence of trading at the open across stocks, forex, and commodities. It delves into the heightened volatility and liquidity characteristic of this period, offering insights and strategies to navigate these early market hours effectively, setting the stage for trading opportunities. What Does the Open Mean in Stocks, Forex, and Commodities? The open signifies the start of the trading day for various financial markets. It's a time when trading activity surges, marked by a rush of orders that have accumulated since the previous close. In stock markets, this includes shares, indices, and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). The influx of orders often leads to significant price movements as the market absorbs overnight news and global economic developments. For forex and commodity markets, the open can vary by region, reflecting their 24-hour nature. This period is crucial for setting the tone of the trading day, offering insights into sentiment and potential trends. Traders closely watch the market open to gauge the strength of these movements, which can indicate broader market trends or sector-specific shifts. Volatility and Liquidity at Market Open Trading at the open is often marked by enhanced volatility and liquidity. Heightened volatility is primarily due to the influx of orders accumulated overnight, reacting to various global events and news. As traders and investors assimilate this information, rapid price movements are common, especially in the first few minutes of the session. These price fluctuations can present both opportunities and risks for traders. Increased liquidity, which refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold without causing significant price movements, is also a characteristic of the open. A higher number of market participants during this period may result in better order execution and tighter bid-ask spreads, particularly in highly liquid markets like forex and major stock indices. What to Know Before the Market Opens In terms of things to know before the stock market opens, it's essential to review the overnight and early morning news that can affect stocks. This includes company earnings reports, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. Traders also check pre-market trading activity to gauge sentiment and potential opening price movements. For forex and commodities, understanding global events is crucial. Developments in different time zones, like policy changes by central banks or shifts in political scenarios, can significantly impact these markets. Additionally, reviewing the performance of international markets can provide insights, as they often influence the US open. It's also vital to analyse futures markets, as they can indicate how stock indices might open. Lastly, around the forex, commodity, and stock market openings, indicators and other technical analysis tools applied to the previous day can also offer valuable context for the day ahead. Market Open in Different Time Zones Market open times vary globally due to different time zones, significantly impacting trading strategies. For instance, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) opens at 9:30 AM Eastern Time, which corresponds to different times in other parts of the world. For traders in London, this translates to an afternoon session, while for those in Asian markets like Tokyo, it's late evening. Forex, operating 24 hours a day during weekdays, see overlapping sessions across different regions. For example, when the Asian trading session is concluding, the European session begins and later overlaps with the North American session. Such global interconnectivity ensures that forex markets are active round the clock, offering continuous trading opportunities but also requiring traders to be mindful of time zone differences and their impact on liquidity and volatility. Strategies for Trading at Market Open Trading at market open requires strategies that can handle rapid price movements across all markets. Here are some effective approaches: - Pay Attention to Pre-Market Trends: This helps traders assess how a stock might behave at the market open. If a stock is fading from post-market highs, it might be wise to wait for a trend change before entering​​. - Gap and Go Strategy: This involves focusing on stocks that gap up on positive news at market open, an indicator of potential further bullishness. Traders look for high relative volume in pre-market and enter trades on a break of pre-market highs. This strategy is fast-paced and requires quick decision-making​​. - Opening Range Breakout (ORB): The ORB strategy uses the early trading range (high and low) to set entry points for breakout trades across all types of assets. The breakout from this range, typically the first 30 to 60 minutes of the session, often indicates the price direction for the rest of the session. Time frames like 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute are commonly used for ORB​​. - Gap Reversal: The gap reversal method is used when the price creates a gap, but then the range breaks in the opposite direction. If the gap is bullish and the price breaks the lower level of the opening range, it signals a gap reversal. The same concept applies to bearish gaps but in reverse. The Bottom Line In essence, understanding unique features of market open trading is vital for those participating in stock, forex, and commodity markets. The opening moments are characterised by heightened volatility and liquidity, driven by global events and sentiment. However, savvy traders may capitalise on these early market dynamics with effective strategies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
1
How Financial Markets Are Reacting to Middle East EscalationHow Financial Markets Are Reacting to the Escalation in the Middle East The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation: → Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level. → Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart. Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground. The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction. At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand. Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by: → Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East); → U.S. retail sales data , due today at 15:30 GMT+3. It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle , potentially triggering a new directional trend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
6/16/25 - $lulu - Comment at low $240s6/16/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:LULU Comment at low $240s - see comment from 6/6/25 about why $260 post EPS was "interesting" but not obvious to own ST - now we're only down a modest ~10% from there, so not much has really changed, except discretionary stocks have further drained. so this is not LULU specific per se, but sector/ factor beta - when you take LT leases out of the EV of ~29.3 bn as of writing, or about 1.5 bn = you get ~27.8 bn. when you consider PF capex is about 500 mm (ex growth)... you end up with FCF this year of ~1.5 bn. so 1.5/ 27.8 = 5.4%. - in the current macro where consumer has yet to really trough, or where we get "all clear cut to rates" (which is not my base case - if anything i think rates could stay sticky or even head higher in the ST), this means yield for this type of name post the last EPS comms might have to approach 6-7% all else equal - the mid teens PE of ~16x is "buy" (again referencing the last note), but in this sort of macro/ environment, 13...14...15x is also reasonable until the mkt can underwrite exactly where the "trough" will be and start to put a more comfortable '26 estimate on the stock (we're not there). - right now there are only three discretionary names i like in this order: NYSE:ANF > NYSE:YETI > $lulu. i only own NYSE:ANF b/c the FCF yield is nearly 15% on my est. and growth/ mgns also decent/ last EPS was "good". I trade around NYSE:YETI (don't currently own), and i see reason NASDAQ:LULU could get a ST bid here all else equal, so i'm playing a bit of a ST bounce here in the $240 region with some slight ITM option exposure for july. - however, i'm aware that the low is probably not in - and i've also seen this stock make nice mean reverting moves before it needs to find a lower level especially b/c the brand is great, the growth is not over... and eventually this will be a top tier discretionary name to own and the mkt is currently pricing it as such, anyway, at mid teens EPS when the rest of the B tier stuff is already single digits. *there's a reason for that*. - food for thought. V
NASDAQ:LULULong
by VROCKSTAR
3
USDCAD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my USDCAD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation. The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets) On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth. Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants. However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other. all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers! Chart White dashed line - 2008 Resistance Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily) Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
by RobertTMFX
1
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
Gold Price Analysis June 17The D1 candle shows profit-taking by the sellers, pushing the price back below 3400. In the current context, the pullback is only short-term and has not confirmed the reversal, but long-term Buy signals can still be noticed at important support zones. Today, there are many price zones that can BUY Gold, so wait for confirmation before placing an order. Gold is heading towards the first support around 3375-3373. This is also the Breakout zone. If it breaks out, Gold will go to 3343-3341 to be able to BUY (pay attention to sell break). If there is a sweep to 3343 and then bounces and closes above the 3373 breakout zone, it confirms that the uptrend will continue strongly in the near future. The next BUY support zone to pay attention to is 3322-3320 and the 3305-3303 zone. The BUY order target is always pushed further back to 3415 or 3443.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 16 - Jun 20]The unrest in the Middle East this week has boosted safe-haven demand for gold, pushing it above $3,400 an ounce. While gold has broken several recent technical resistance levels, it is unlikely that it will hit a new record high next week. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran provides safe-haven support, but historically, gold rallies driven by geopolitical events tend to be short-lived. Gold is currently outperforming the US dollar, which has struggled to attract safe-haven funds. Iran launched a retaliatory airstrike on Israel on Friday night (June 13), Reuters reported. Air raid sirens sounded across Israel and authorities urged residents to take shelter in shelters. The Israeli military said Iran fired nearly 100 missiles, most of which were intercepted or missed their targets. Israel's Channel 12 reported two people were seriously injured, eight were moderately injured and 34 suffered shrapnel injuries. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had carried out military operations against dozens of targets in Israel. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' news website released a message that evening saying the "powerful and precise" counterattack was in retaliation for Israel's "invasion" of many parts of Iran and the killing of many senior military commanders, nuclear experts and Iranian civilians, including children. Wider Middle East Conflict Could Erupt Israel destroyed Tehran's military command system early Friday and struck key Iranian nuclear facilities. The Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards, cited data saying the Israeli attack killed dozens of people in Iran and wounded more than 300. Israel has carried out large-scale airstrikes on multiple locations in Iran since early Friday, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets. Reuters said Israel's attacks on Iran during the day and Iran's retaliation have raised concerns about a broader conflict in the region. All Eyes on the Fed While gold will continue to be affected by geopolitical developments, market attention will also be on the Federal Reserve, particularly Chairman Powell, who will speak after next week’s monetary policy meeting. Economists generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged. However, expectations are growing that Powell could begin paving the way for a rate cut later this year. The latest inflation data and signs of a slowing US economy have given the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. However, growing geopolitical uncertainty may prompt some market participants to adjust their expectations. Overall assessment of the basic environment The gold market in particular will still receive absolute support when there are too many risks appearing, from geopolitical developments to interest rate prospects, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term. Therefore, in general vision, gold is considered the top safe-haven asset in the global unstable environment and it tends to increase in price in the current context. Economic Data to Watch Next Week Monday: State Manufacturing Survey, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Tuesday: US Retail Sales Wednesday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts, Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting Thursday: US Markets Closed for Black Lives Matter Day, Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Meeting, Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting Friday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has almost achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in last week's weekly issue, initially at $3,371, then at the full price point and finally at $3,435. Gold can still continue to increase in price as technical conditions still absolutely support the short-term trend channel, while the long-term trend channel and the nearest support is the EMA21. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping up after receiving support from 50 and is still far from overbought territory, indicating that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead. To sum up, as long as gold remains within/above the price channel, it remains bullish in the short term. Any dips that do not break below the price channel should only be considered as short-term corrections or a new buying opportunity. Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3497 - 3495⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3501 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3374 - 3376⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3370
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout?USDJPY 17/06 – Squeeze in Progress: Will BOJ Trigger the Next Breakout? The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating just below the key 144.650 resistance, stuck within a tightening triangle structure. As markets await more clarity from both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed, price action is showing signs of indecision — but pressure is building. 🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview BOJ maintains a neutral stance: Despite growing speculation of a hawkish shift, the BOJ held rates steady, providing no strong forward guidance. Markets remain cautious. US Dollar remains resilient amid stable bond yields and expectations that the Fed may delay rate cuts, adding short-term support to USDJPY. Geopolitical risk is on the rise: Ongoing Middle East tensions are fueling safe-haven demand for JPY, capping bullish momentum. 🔍 Technical Setup (M30 Chart) Price is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, tightening between 144.652 resistance and 143.126 support. EMA 13/34/89 are aligned bullishly, but EMA 200 (red) is acting as a dynamic ceiling near 144.300. Key support zones: 144.071: Minor structural level and trendline test. 143.126: Major liquidity zone and untested demand. 🎯 Trade Scenarios 📉 Scenario 1 – Sell on Rejection at 144.652 Entry: 144.650–144.700 Stop Loss: 145.250 Take Profit: 144.071 → 143.600 → 143.126 Ideal if BOJ shifts tone or USD weakens post-Fed comments. 📈 Scenario 2 – Buy on Bullish Reaction at 143.126 Entry: 143.100–143.150 Stop Loss: 142.700 Take Profit: 143.600 → 144.071 → 144.650 → 145.200 Valid only with clear bullish confirmation on M15–M30 structure. 🧠 Final Thoughts USDJPY is coiling tightly ahead of a potential breakout. Macro uncertainty from central banks, geopolitical instability, and upcoming CPI data make this week highly volatile. Instead of chasing, let price come to your zones and react accordingly. 🔔 Focus on structure, confirm with price action, and avoid emotional trades. Patience and discipline are key in this compression phase.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
GOLD recovers from $3,371, risks remain highOn Tuesday (June 17) in the Asian market, the spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly fell sharply in the short term, and the price of gold once fell below 3,380 USD/ounce. As investors watched the hostile situation between Israel and Iran, US President Trump called for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iran and ordered officials to be ready in the situation room, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social": "Iran should sign the 'deal' I asked them to sign. What a shame and waste of lives. Simply put, Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. I have said this over and over again! Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately!" Axios News reported that shortly after Trump's tweet, Iranian media reported explosions and heavy anti-aircraft fire in Tehran. It is unclear whether there is any connection between Trump's tweet and the attack. According to the latest report from Fox News, US President Trump asked the National Security Council to be on standby in the White House Situation Room after he cut short his trip to the G7 summit and returned to Washington earlier than expected. The White House Situation Room is a conference room and intelligence management center located in the basement of the West Wing of the White House, with a total area of ​​about 460 square meters. The main purpose of the White House Situation Room is to provide a working space for the National Security Council, including the President of the United States, the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Advisor, etc., to quickly discuss and respond to sudden domestic and international events affecting the national security of the United States. It has advanced and complete security communication facilities, allowing the President of the United States to control the United States military around the world at any time. WTI crude oil prices rose about 3.00% on the day after Trump told officials to be ready in the situation room. These market risks clearly leave plenty of room for gold to rise, and the current decline, which is being driven by profit-taking, is unlikely to last. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After a sharp decline, gold has recovered from the support level noted to readers in the previous issue at the price point of 3,371 USD, which is the location of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and currently the original price point of 3,400 USD is the nearest resistance at present. If gold breaks above 3,400 USD, it will have the conditions to aim for the target of 3,435 USD in the short term. Currently, gold still has enough technical conditions for an uptrend with the price channel as the short-term trend, while the price channel as the long-term trend and the EMA21 as the nearest support at present. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50 and is far from overbought territory, suggesting that there is still plenty of room for upside ahead. The current declines should still be viewed as a short-term correction rather than a full-fledged trend, or as a buying opportunity. During the day, the technical bullish outlook for gold will be highlighted by the following positions. Support: $3,371 – $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,435 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3420 - 3418⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3424 →Take Profit 1 3412 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3406 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3346 →Take Profit 1 3358 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3364
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate UnchangedBank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged This morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged as widely expected. According to Forex Factory, the BOJ Policy Rate remains at 0.5%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the following: → Japan’s economy is recovering moderately. → The Bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflationary conditions improve. → The situation surrounding trade tariffs remains highly uncertain. The fact that the decision was anticipated by markets is reflected in price action on the charts. Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart A brief spike in volatility occurred on the USD/JPY chart this morning, but it did not significantly alter the broader structure of price movements, which in June have formed a contracting triangle pattern. In recent days, the pair has been climbing from the lower boundary of the triangle toward the upper edge, forming a short-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue). However, in the near term, this bullish momentum may weaken as the USD/JPY rate approaches the upper boundary of the triangle, which coincides with the psychologically significant level of 145 yen to the dollar (indicated by arrows). From a medium-term perspective, traders should watch for a potential breakout from the triangle pattern, which could trigger a meaningful trend. One possible catalyst could be news of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
GBPUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my GBPUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
2