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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for June 12, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening for the second day in a row against a weakened US Dollar (USD) and is moving further away from the two-week low reached the day before. The market's initial reaction to news of trade talks between the US and China faded rather quickly after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, curbs investors' appetite for risky assets and maintains the yen's status as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the yen is further supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may tighten monetary conditions amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. On the other hand, the US Dollar looks vulnerable near one-month lows as weaker US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This, in turn, led the USD/JPY pair to fall below 143.50 in the last hour. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.30, SL 144.30, TP 141.30
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Ethereum's Road to $7500 – Strategic Entries & Profit Optimizati🔵 Entry Zone: My first position is placed at $2225.5, aligning with a strong support level, while a secondary entry at $1857.5 serves as an additional safeguard against unexpected market swings—lowering my average purchase price and protecting capital. 💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: For low-risk traders, securing a 40% profit from the first entry is a prudent move to lock in gains early. However, my long-term target remains ambitious. 🚀 Main Target: Based on valuation models and fundamental news, Ethereum’s upside potential points toward $7500. However, I personally plan to secure 90% of my holdings at $6000, ensuring strong profit realization while leaving room for further upside. This setup balances risk management, smart positioning, and strategic profit optimization. Let’s see how ETH’s trajectory unfolds! Entry1: 2225.5 Entry 2: 1857.5 If your second entry is successful, you are required to withdraw 50 to 70 percent of your capital to maintain your capital. I will definitely update this setup.
Long
by Masoism
CORN.c CORN.c Short Trade Plan (Daily Timeframe) 📍 Trade Setup Direction: Short Entry: Instant / Current Market Price (CMP) Stop Loss (SL): 465.97 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 403.36 (≈ 1:1 Risk-Reward) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 387.00 (≈ 1:1.5 Risk-Reward) 📊 Technical Justification Trend: Downtrend confirmed – price forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Candle Pattern: Bearish shooting star near resistance – strong rejection signal. 🌽 Top 3 Bearish Fundamental Reasons Favorable U.S. Weather Conditions → Ideal for crop growth → higher yield expectations → bearish pressure. Weak Global Export Demand → Sluggish corn exports (e.g., China slowdown) → less global demand for U.S. corn. Strong U.S. Dollar → Makes U.S. corn more expensive internationally → lowers export competitiveness. 🎯 Risk Management & Execution Plan Risk-Reward (TP1): ~1:1 Risk-Reward (TP2): ~1:1.5 📌 Once TP1 is hit: ✅ Move SL to Entry (Breakeven) to protect capital and ride remaining position to TP2.
ACTIVTRADES:CORNN2025Short
by SmartMoney-AR
XAG/USD - Channel Breakout (11.06.2025) The XAG/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a CHannel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 3587 2nd Support – 3555 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
42
GOLD (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bull Trend Pausing or Reverse🧠 GOLD (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis GOLD has been trading in a broad bullish trend, supported by global uncertainty and consistent interest in safe-haven assets. However, today’s intraday structure shows signs of potential exhaustion after a clean tap of a major resistance/QFL zone. In this analysis, I break down the key zones, trader psychology, market structure, and potential playbook for upcoming moves. 📊 Technical Structure Breakdown: 🔷 1. SR Interchange Zone – The Flip Level Marked early in the chart, the SR Interchange area served as a major resistance, which was broken and then retested — confirming a classic S/R flip. This level added confluence to the uptrend that followed. Trader Insight: This is where buyers got confident after the retest. Smart money often leaves footprints at such interchange zones. 🔷 2. Ascending Channel – The Guiding Rail GOLD has been respecting an upward channel for several days. Price bounced multiple times off both upper and lower channel boundaries. This gives a clear roadmap for intraday traders to watch for bounces, midline reactions, and possible breakouts. Channel dynamics: Right now, price has rejected from the top of the channel, suggesting possible movement back toward the midline or bottom rail. 🔷 3. QFL Rejection – Trap Zone Activated Price recently hit the QFL zone, which aligns closely with previous highs and liquidity pools. This level acted as a liquidity trap where buyers got over-leveraged or late entries piled in — only to see a strong rejection right after. This sharp drop from the QFL area signals institutional sell pressure or heavy profit-taking. It’s not just a pullback — it’s a signal. 🧱 Key Zones to Watch: Zone Type Relevance $3,380 - $3,400 QFL / Resistance Rejection point, likely full of stop-losses and liquidity $3,340 - $3,320 Reversal Area / Demand Potential buyer re-entry and bounce zone $3,300 and below Liquidity Pool If demand fails, price could slide into this liquidity zone 📉 Bearish Case: Reversal in Motion? If the current rejection from QFL continues without any strong bounce at the reversal zone: Expect price to retest the lower channel and possibly breakdown. Sell pressure could increase due to trapped long positions trying to exit. Target: $3,320 → $3,300 → possible $3,280 extension. ✅ Entry: Look for failed retests of the QFL zone or lower highs 📍 SL: Above $3,385 🎯 TP: First target near $3,320, then trail stops. 📈 Bullish Case: Controlled Pullback Before Lift-Off If price finds strong support in the Reversal Area: Look for bullish engulfing, hammer, or double bottom patterns in the area. Could be a healthy pullback before continuation to $3,400+. Target: $3,380 → $3,420 and even higher if breakout is strong. ✅ Entry: Confirmation after bullish reaction at $3,340 zone 📍 SL: Below $3,315 🎯 TP: $3,380+, trail if breakout holds 🔄 Trader Psychology in Action: Late buyers entered after the breakout toward $3,380. Smart money exited near the top or flipped bias near QFL. Retail panic selling might happen if support fails, offering re-entry for institutions at better prices. Discipline Tip: Let price confirm your bias. Don’t chase. 📌 Final Thoughts & Trade Plan: GOLD is at a decision point. Whether you're trading intraday or swing, your focus should be on: Watching how price reacts to the Reversal Area Identifying fakeouts vs true breaks at channel boundaries Staying patient for confirmation (don’t jump in on impulse) This setup provides an excellent opportunity for both bullish and bearish traders — just stay unbiased and reactive, not predictive.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Report – June 12, 2025As of today, markets are navigating a cautious and complex macro landscape driven by sticky inflation, mixed economic momentum, and upcoming supply events in the U.S. Treasury market. At the center of market focus is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which surprised to the upside. The headline PPI YoY came in at 2.6%, above the prior month’s 2.4%, while the month-over-month figure rebounded to +0.2%, recovering from -0.5% in April. Although Core PPI YoY held flat at 3.1%, the level remains elevated. These numbers reinforce the perception that inflationary pressures remain embedded at the producer level, limiting the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to ease policy in the near term. Simultaneously, the U.S. labor market continues to show resilience. Initial Jobless Claims printed at 242,000, slightly better than the consensus estimate of 247,000. The four-week average stabilized at 235,000, and Continuing Claims remained firm at 1.904 million. This combination of firm labor and sticky inflation supports a “higher-for-longer” rates environment, with no immediate pressure on the Fed to pivot dovish. These data points, taken together, imply that the fixed income and equity markets are still subject to repricing risk, especially if the Fed maintains its hawkish rhetoric or if real yields begin to trend higher again. In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields moved slightly lower across the curve, with the 2Y yield at 3.958% (-0.6bp), the 10Y at 4.416% (-1.0bp), and the 30Y at 4.905% (-1.4bp). The curve remains inverted, although the steepness has moderated somewhat, indicating a cautious recalibration of forward rate expectations. Markets are closely watching today’s 30-year Treasury bond auction, scheduled for later in the session. A weak result — defined as a tail greater than 1.5bps — could lead to a renewed sell-off in long-duration Treasuries and reinforce the bear trend in TLT. Looking internationally, Japan’s 10Y yield remains stable at 1.454%, suggesting no immediate pressure from the BoJ to shift policy. In the UK, the 10Y Gilt yield stands at 4.526%, continuing to reflect persistent inflation risk. German 10Y Bunds yield between 2.41–2.45%, slightly firmer, maintaining a neutral to moderately hawkish stance ahead of upcoming ECB communications. Collectively, these yield levels reflect a global market pricing in differentiated inflation risks and rate divergence. In fixed income ETFs, we see short-duration U.S. Treasury instruments leading, with SHY (1–3Y) up +0.13%, while TLT (20Y+) gained +0.30%, showing tentative stabilization ahead of the auction. Investment-grade credit, as tracked by LQD, rose +0.34%, benefiting from risk-off hedging and carry trades. However, high-yield (HYG) was flat at -0.02%, and convertibles (CWB) edged lower at -0.06%, both signaling a decline in speculative appetite. Internationally, emerging market debt (EMB +0.3%) and global Treasuries (IGOV +0.29%) are firming as the USD softens modestly. In the equity space, today’s session is showing a mild risk-off tilt. The S&P 500 trades at 6,022 (-0.3%), holding just above key support at 5,975. The Dow Jones is flat at 42,865, with underlying breadth weakening. The Nasdaq 100 fell -0.4% to 21,860, and Russell 2000 declined -0.4% to 2,148, continuing its underperformance. The VIX has risen to 17.27 (+1.9%), closing in on the psychological stress level of 18.5. Sector rotation aligns with a defensive narrative. Energy is leading, up +1.4% (with oil rallying sharply), followed by Utilities (+0.1%) and Health Care (+0.1%), both classic low-volatility, defensive groups. Conversely, Technology (-0.2%) and Real Estate (-0.5%) are underperforming, as the market de-risks rate-sensitive sectors. Financials (-0.1%) remain cautious due to yield curve pressure and auction-related uncertainty. From a style and factor perspective, momentum continues to lead with +0.72% relative outperformance versus SPY, followed by high dividend (+0.39%) and value (+0.16%). Meanwhile, growth stocks are soft (-0.04%), and small caps are lagging further (-0.32%), signaling a clear rotation away from riskier, high-beta equity exposure. In currencies, the U.S. dollar is slightly weaker today. USD/JPY trades at 143.99 (-0.4%), showing softness despite higher PPI, likely due to short-term positioning. EUR/USD has strengthened to 1.1516 (+0.2%), and GBP/USD is stable at 1.3547. Crypto remains soft with BTC/USD down 1.2% to $107,669, confirming that risk appetite remains limited. The commodity complex is stronger. Gold is up $18.20 to $3,371.13, reflecting safe-haven buying as real yields pause. Crude oil (WTI) has rallied $2.90 to $67.88, and Brent is at $69.51, with supply dynamics and macro demand recovery pushing prices higher. Natural gas remains flat at $3.51. These moves have boosted commodity-sensitive equities in the emerging market space. For example, Brazil (EWZ) is up 1.8%, South Korea (EWY) up 1.3%, and India (EPI) +0.3%, while developed markets (EFA) are flat to down (-0.2%). Tactically, the SPX remains neutral to bearish. Holding above 5,975 preserves structure, but a breakdown below this level — especially if triggered by a hot auction or inflation shock — could drive further downside. The Dow remains in a bearish posture below 43,000, with a downside trigger at 42,300. Gold remains in a bullish technical setup with breakout potential above $2,350 and support at $2,325–2,330. USD/JPY is a tactical long above 143.80, aiming for 144.60, conditional on yields rising. TLT remains weak, and a close below 86.50 following the auction would confirm downside continuation. WTI oil is long-biased above 67, targeting $69.80 and higher if USD continues to weaken. Key macro risk triggers include: a PPI print above 2.8% or Core PPI above 3.2%, which would reinforce Fed hawkishness; a long bond auction tail greater than 1.5bps, which would signal poor demand and push long yields higher; a VIX breakout above 18.5, which would signal a broader risk-off episode; and a gold breakout above $2,350, which would confirm macro hedge acceleration. Asset Action Gold Long bias Oil Long setup SPX Hedged Dow Bearish lean USD/JPY Buy dips > 143.80 TLT Bear or avoid
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Gold Extends Gains Post-CPI | All Eyes on PPI for the Next Move XAUUSD – Gold Extends Gains Post-CPI | All Eyes on PPI for the Next Move 🌍 Macro Pulse: CPI Sparks Momentum, But Will PPI Sustain It? Gold surged following softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday, with the CPI rising just 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY—both below forecasts. This triggered a broad sell-off in the USD, a pullback in Treasury yields, and a renewed appetite for non-yielding safe havens like gold. Markets are now increasingly pricing in a rate cut by the Fed in September, adding further fuel to the rally. However, Wednesday’s US PPI data could either reinforce this bullish sentiment or reverse it sharply. 📉 Technical Landscape – H1 & H4 View 🔹 Trend Bias The bullish structure remains intact, with price carving out higher highs and higher lows since the 3312 level. The recent breakout above 3370 confirms bullish momentum. 🔹 Price Channels Gold continues to track within a defined ascending channel. A potential retest of the lower trendline near 3345–3350 could provide a dip-buying opportunity. 🔹 EMA Structure The price trades comfortably above the 13, 34, 89, and 200 EMAs. Short-term EMA crossovers are supportive of continued upside. 🔹 Critical Resistance Ahead: 3392 – 3395 A key technical zone combining Fibonacci extension levels and recent rejection wicks. A decisive break or rejection here will set the tone for the next 48 hours. 🧠 Market Psychology & PPI Scenarios The market is currently optimistic, but still cautious. The PPI report due later today will likely serve as the next directional trigger: If PPI prints below estimates → reinforces disinflation narrative → potential breakout above 3,400 with upside targets towards 3,420+. If PPI comes in hot → raises concerns about sticky input costs → possible short-term reversal or consolidation. Expect volatility to spike during the New York session. 🎯 Today’s Tactical Trade Setups – 12 June 🟢 Buy Zone: 3324 – 3322 Stop Loss: 3318 Take Profit Targets: 3330 – 3334 – 3338 – 3342 – 3346 – 3350 🟢 Buy Scalp Zone: 3337 – 3335 SL: 3330 TPs: 3341 – 3345 – 3350 – 3354 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380 🔴 Sell Zone: 3392 – 3394 Stop Loss: 3398 Take Profit Targets: 3388 – 3384 – 3380 – 3375 – 3370 – 3360 – 3350 ✅ Final Take Gold bulls are in control, but the PPI data will likely dictate whether momentum continues or stalls. With key resistance just ahead and macro risk on the table, this is not the time to trade blindly. 🧭 Strategy Tip: Let price confirm the reaction to PPI. Don’t pre-position into volatility. Play the breakout or the fade—but wait for clarity.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Breakdown from Rising Channel – Bearish Momentum Expected Gold (XAU/USD) – 4-Hour Chart Technical Analysis Gold has recently broken below the lower boundary of a rising parallel channel on the 4-hour time frame. This pattern typically signals a potential trend reversal or correction after a bullish move. Currently trading around 3352, Gold is facing strong resistance near the 3371 level, which aligns with the upper limit of the risk zone marked on the chart. The bearish breakout, suggests increased downside pressure. If the price continues to reject from this resistance zone, we could see a move toward the support target near 3290, marking a significant short-term decline. Entry 3352 Stop-Loss 3371 Take-Profit Target 3290 Bearish below 3371. Traders should monitor for follow-through selling and volume confirmation.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Anna_Wade
UBS suffers a major setbackUBS suffers a major setback: regulatory pressure hits its share price and dims buyback expectations By Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst UBS Group AG (Ticker SWX: UBSG.CH), Switzerland’s largest bank, faces a fresh blow. The Swiss government has proposed demanding an additional $26 billion in top-tier regulatory capital following the historic takeover of Credit Suisse. The market reaction was swift, triggering a particularly volatile session yesterday: after a brief spike, UBS shares dropped more than 7%, marking their worst day in two months—just as the bank had announced plans to distribute dividends in the coming year. Despite strong earnings and a $3 billion dividend payout plan for 2025, the market is now pricing in a potential negative impact on share buybacks in 2026 and 2027. Global banks are watching closely. A new scenario of "Swiss regulatory slap" The so-called “Swiss regulatory slap” aims to strengthen the national financial system, raising the CET1 ratio to 17% and requiring all foreign subsidiaries to be fully capitalized. UBS has labeled the proposal “extreme and unnecessary,” though it acknowledges that implementation would not begin before 2028. Even so, the market fears that the regulatory cost may directly affect shareholder returns. Fundamental analysis: strong results under pressure The Swiss bank closed the first quarter of 2025 with a net profit of $1.7 billion, thanks largely to a strong performance in its wealth management division, which brought in $32 billion in new assets—pushing total assets under management past $6.2 trillion. Return on CET1 capital reached 11.3%, though the officially reported figure stands at 9.6%, a target criticized by the regulator. UBS forecasts EPS growth of more than 25% annually over the next five years. However, pressure to boost capital threatens to slow share buybacks and dilute mid-term profitability—especially if economic conditions tighten further. This apparent strength could be constrained if UBS is forced to prioritize capital retention over shareholder distributions, as many in the market now anticipate. Technical analysis: chart signals warning signs Following the announcement of new requirements, UBS’s chart is showing signs of weakness. After reaching yearly highs, the stock lost momentum and broke through key support levels. Volatility has increased significantly, and although the long-term ascending channel remains intact, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether this is a technical pullback or the beginning of a bearish trend. From a technical standpoint, this week’s drop has placed UBS at a critical juncture. Key support lies at the 20.01 CHF lows, while the 26.41–28.79 CHF range appears to offer some short-term stability. Below that, 23.40 and 21.87 CHF serve as additional buffers against further downside. A sustained close above current levels is needed to restore the bullish outlook, which currently appears to have stalled. RSI remains in neutral territory, with no clear oversold signals, while MACD has lost its bullish crossover. The previously bullish moving average crossover that began in mid-May is now fading, showing signs of trend exhaustion. On the bright side, price profile analysis reveals a potential point of control above the current range, near 29.30 CHF. If the price manages a weak upward continuation toward that area, a rebound from the current 26.49 CHF level could unfold. Conclusion UBS faces a delicate moment: Switzerland’s regulatory push sends a clear message about systemic prudence but also raises doubts about the bank’s short- and mid-term appeal to shareholders. Despite its strong fundamentals and global leadership, the market remains cautious. Technically, the stock is at a crossroads: a rebound from key support could reignite optimism, but a break below 25 CHF would open the door to a gloomier scenario. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
SIX:UBSGShort
by ActivTrades
Why FPT?Starting first looking at what the company is doing. AI The buzz word of most news headlines. $200 Million Investment: FPT has committed to a landmark $200 million investment to build an AI Factory in partnership with global chip giant NVIDIA. The goal is to create a complete ecosystem for AI development, offering not just the raw computing power (GPU infrastructure) but also the software platforms (FPT AI Studio) and expert consulting needed to build and deploy AI solutions. This one ties AI and chips together: University Collaboration: FPT University is a strategic asset. They are working directly with NVIDIA and other institutions like the VNU University of Technology to incorporate AI into their curriculum, aiming to help train the 30,000 to 50,000 AI and semiconductor engineers Vietnam needs by 2030. Chips FPT is targeting the design aspect of making chips and there is a lot of international demand to cut into China's monopoly. FPT being in Vietnam is already in a strategically significant area. Samsung is Vietnam's single largest foreign investor and happens to be able to fabricate chips. They also have multiple existing partnerships with FPT and are no strangers to working together. Compute is hottest commodity of the modern age. Though compute is the final product I'll go over how we get there. First stage mine it Vietnam has an estimated 3.5 million metric tons Rare Earth Reserves. The world's sixth largest reserves. The key challenge is converting this immense potential into actual production and processed materials. In 2024 Vietnam produced 300 metric ton. So there is a lot of room to grow. Why this matters: This national ambition is backed by a new, aggressive legal framework. Key policies like Resolution 10-NQ/TW and the new Law on Geology and Minerals (effective July 1, 2025) mandate that raw ores must be processed in-country and explicitly push for Vietnamese companies and their partners to lead the charge. This strategy aims to prevent the export of raw minerals and build a complete high-value supply chain within Vietnam. While FPT is not a mining company, these laws are designed to create a stable domestic supply of processed rare earths and high-value materials. This is a critical long-term advantage for a company like FPT aiming to build a world-class semiconductor design center, as it ensures future access to a secure, local supply chain. Stage 2 is processing Multiple countries are working on doing this. It's very complicated and the struggle seems to be making in cost effective outside of China. Stage 3 Design Conceptualizing the chip's architecture. (Fabless companies like NVIDIA do this). This is precisely the high-value role FPT is targeting. Stage 4 Fabrication This is mostly TSMC and Samsung. It's why Taiwan and chips is so related. Also worth mentioning Samsung not do fabrication in Vietnam. It does it in South Korea. Stage 5 Assembly, Test, and Packaging (ATP) Cutting the finished wafers into individual chips, assembling them into protective packages, and testing them to ensure they work. Companies like Intel and Samsung already do this in Vietnam. Telecommunications Segment While its growth is more modest (around +11.3% in 2024), it is highly profitable and provides consistent, predictable cash flow that helps fund the high-growth initiatives in the Technology segment. Education & Other Investments The education section has 1 simple con and that's birthrates in Vietnam. Currently below the replacement rate but effort is being made to change that. Other then that it's all good news. Over the last 50 years Vietnam has gone from it being common to have some elementary school education but no high school or university or English. To pumping out highly educated English and Vietnamese speaking students ready to take on global competition. This factory of new skilled workers means both proud parents and a nation about to steal the spotlight on a global stage. Vietnam while a small country by land mass makes up for it in a population of 100 million and a relentless work ethic. It's the definition of hard times make strong people and strong people make good times. The good times are coming. Why this matters to FPT Education? Good education costs money but it also makes $$$. With this new labor force they will be able to afford great education for the next generation. What else? Well when you got great education other people will use it. Looking forward, as Vietnam solidifies its status as a stable, high-tech hub, it's plausible that its top-tier educational institutions, like FPT University, will attract foreign students, creating an entirely new, high-margin revenue stream that is likely not on most investors' radar today. Price Chart Price is sitting on the weekly 8 SMA. Waiting for a move above 122000 VND this is the next FIB retracement level. Right now we have a possible low at 106000 VND and possible higher low at 115000 VND . Stoploss at 110 000 VND means that upside potential is way bigger then the downside risk. To be clear the stoploss can't be at 114900 while this might work with low volatility stocks on larger US exchanges. The risk of getting wicked out of a position here on HOSE is way different. My optimistic target right now would be 190 000 VND and FIB retracement projection is 192 500 VND. Most likely I'll take profit before that. MACD cross MACD is still bearish there is a chance of a cross in the next few weeks. Daily saw a nice move up. It's also very close to attempting a cross up. It's bearish but allows for an asymmetric trade when down side stop loss can be small. While upside can be huge. Lose small and win big. I opted for tight stoploss rather then waiting for signals to all line up. Some people might be less aggressive but not waiting here is about identifying in the price favorable conditions for minimal downside. Meaning it's clear where the position become invalid. RSI The daily RSI has a really nice double bottom. To me this increases the likelihood of a reversal substantially. Stoch RSI With Stochastic RSI continuing to move up we should know soon if this position is correct of not. Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, market, or trading strategy does not guarantee future results. I am not a financial advisor. Please conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions you make.
HOSE:FPTLong
by JamesRennie
Why? Because liquidity is building at this support zone.🚨 GBP/JPY Traders — Don’t Get Trapped! 🚨 GBP/JPY has just touched a major support level, and on the surface, it looks like a golden buying opportunity. But here’s the catch: this is exactly where most retail traders get trapped. Why? Because liquidity is building at this support zone. Smart money knows retail traders have stop losses and pending orders sitting right below — and they’re coming for it. 🧠💰 Here’s what the market is likely to do next: 📈 Step 1: A small bullish bounce to lure retail traders in. Everyone starts thinking, “This is the reversal!” 🔄 Step 2: Boom — a sharp move down. Stop hunts. Fakeouts. Panic sells. The market dips below support, grabbing liquidity. 🚀 Step 3: Once liquidity is swept and BPR (Break Point Range) is hit, then the real move begins. This is a classic setup — trap retail, feed institutional orders, and then drive the market in the true direction. ⚠️ Don’t fall for the bait. Stay patient. Let the trap spring before you strike. 📊 Watch structure. Watch liquidity. Watch price behavior. That’s where the edge is. DYOR — Do Your Own Research. This isn’t financial advice — it’s a trader’s insight. Trade smart. Trade sharp. 💼🔥
Long
by Peter_Wade
Gold Coiling in Rising Wedge Ahead of CPI: Breakout Imminent?XAUUSD – Gold Coiling in Rising Wedge Ahead of CPI: Breakout Imminent? Gold (XAUUSD) is compressing within a well-defined rising wedge pattern on the 1H chart, signaling that a decisive move is near. With the U.S. CPI report due on June 12th, traders should prepare for volatility driven by macroeconomic catalysts. Whether gold breaks higher or reverses depends on how the market digests inflation data. 🌍 Macro Backdrop: All Eyes on Inflation 📌 U.S. CPI (June 12): A softer-than-expected reading could revive Fed rate cut expectations and send gold higher. A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold. 📌 U.S.–China Trade Sentiment: Diplomatic progress in trade talks reduces safe-haven demand in the short term, weakening gold's defensive appeal. 📌 DXY & Bond Yields: A breakout in DXY or a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields post-CPI may lead to a corrective leg lower in XAUUSD. 📈 Technical Overview – Multi-Layered Structure Pattern: Gold is forming a rising wedge between higher lows and converging highs, typical of breakout scenarios. Fibonacci Levels (retracement from 3,400 to 3,296): 0.382: 3,336 – intermediate support 0.618: 3,360 – significant resistance, near current swing highs Moving Averages: Price is currently above EMA34 and EMA89 Struggling below EMA200 (red), which acts as dynamic resistance FVG Liquidity Zone: An open Fair Value Gap between 3,360 – 3,374 could act as a magnet before any reversal. 🎯 Trade Strategy Scenarios 🟢 Buy Scenario – Bounce from Support Zone Entry: 3314 – 3312 | Stop-Loss: 3308 | Take-Profit: 3318, 3322, 3326, 3330, 3335, 3340 Ideal if CPI comes in lower than expected or aligns with a bullish technical rejection from wedge support. 🔴 Sell Scenario – Rejection from Resistance Zone Entry: 3374 – 3376 | Stop-Loss: 3380 | Take-Profit: 3370, 3366, 3362, 3358, 3352, 3348, 3340 Valid if price taps into the upper liquidity zone (3,374–3,394) and fails to break, especially on CPI surprise to the upside. 🧠 Tactical Conclusion A dovish CPI → favors BUY setup off lower wedge support A hawkish CPI → favors SELL near upper resistance and liquidity zones 📌 The market is compressing and gearing up for a breakout. Patience is key — wait for confirmation at key zones and manage risk precisely.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Gold Trading Strategy June 11Yesterday's D1 candle was still a balance candle closing below the important breakout zone 3347. Today's Asian session, strong buying pressure pushed the price back close to the important resistance zone in shaping the trend. 3326 is also worth noting in the European session, so wait for price reaction to BUY, but in the US session, there is CPI news, this zone will be difficult to maintain. The breakout zone 3310 is also very important to wait for price reaction for BUY scalping points. 3295 is an important daily support zone. If there is a price slide from 3295, do not BUY until it touches the support zone 3275. In the opposite direction of today's Break 3345, wait for 3363-3365 to SELL. The 3345 zone is considered a Breakout zone when broken to trade BUY. Support: 3310-3295-3275 Resistance: 3364-3380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
2
POST NEWS (GBP)GBP/USD Post-News Trade Entry: 1.35605 Take Profit: 1.35343 Stop Loss: 1.35736 Trading a post-news setup following a surprise deviation in the GBP-related high-impact news release. Price action showed a strong to medium reaction, and after the initial volatility settled, I entered short based on my post-news strategy. The setup aligns with my rules: – Waited for 15 min candle stabilization Risk-reward ratio is favorable, and the stop is placed just above the reaction high to minimize exposure.
Short
by alisardari
GOLD GOLD .the current london time of gold trading session is locked at 3376-3374.we hope they unlock the price at 3350-3355 to enable 3427-3430 and higher lock zone another unlock key at 3367 will be watched if it has the potential for upswing and unlock,otherwise it gets locked into 3350-3355 unlock zone . from technical perspective unlock of 3323 yesterday will need a cool off at 3350-3355 to unlock another long position. the dollar index got unlock key at 98.263 descending trendline upholding long position. the 2hr and 1hr aligns with the structure.(lock /unlock) lets watch and see what she does. stay cautious
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Minimize Big Losses by Managing your EmotionsHow many times have your emotions taken control in the middle of a trade? Fear, greed, or stress can be a trader’s worst enemy. This analysis teaches you how to manage your emotions to avoid big losses and look at the crypto market with a more professional eye. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on PEPE : PEPE is testing a strong daily trendline alongside key Fibonacci support, signaling a potential upside of at least 30%, targeting 0.000016 . Keep an eye on this confluence for a solid entry point. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 💡 Market Psychology and Emotional Management Crypto markets are highly volatile, which triggers strong emotions in traders. Fear of missing out (FOMO) and greed are two of the biggest enemies of any trader. Without emotional control, it’s easy to fall into bad trades. The first step in managing emotions is recognizing your behavioral patterns. Once you know when fear or greed kicks in, you can adjust your trading plan accordingly. Second, stick to a clear trading plan. Whether the market is crashing or pumping hard, stay loyal to your strategy and make decisions based on logic and analysis—not feelings. 🛠 TradingView Tools and Indicators to Manage Emotions First off, TradingView tools aren’t just for technical analysis—they can help you control emotions and impulses in your trades. One of the best indicators is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which clearly shows whether the market is overbought (extreme greed) or oversold (extreme fear). Using RSI, you can spot moments when the market is too emotional—either overly optimistic or fearful—and avoid impulsive decisions. For example, when RSI rises above 70, the market may be too greedy, signaling you to hold back from jumping in hastily. Besides RSI, indicators like MACD and Bollinger Bands help you better visualize trends and volatility, allowing you to avoid emotional entry or exit points. The key is to combine these indicators with awareness of market psychology, making them powerful tools to manage your feelings while trading crypto. 📊 Practical Use of Indicators to Avoid Big Losses Imagine you entered a Bitcoin long position. By watching RSI and MACD, you can pinpoint better entry and exit points. If RSI is above 70 and MACD shows a reversal signal, a price correction is likely. In such cases, trade cautiously or consider exiting to avoid significant losses. Additionally, setting stop-loss orders based on support/resistance levels identified by Bollinger Bands is another key risk management strategy. This keeps your losses controlled and within acceptable limits, even if the price moves suddenly. ⚡️ The Psychology of Loss and Greed — Two Big Trader Traps After losing, it’s natural to want to recover quickly, but that’s where greed often leads to risky, poorly thought-out trades. To break this harmful cycle: Focus on the size of your losses, not just your profits Take a break from trading after a loss to calm your emotions Use TradingView tools for thorough analysis and never let feelings drive your decisions 🔍 Final Advice Managing emotions is the backbone of successful trading in highly volatile crypto markets. Smart use of technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, combined with self-awareness and strict adherence to your trading plan, can drastically reduce big losses and maximize gains. Always remember to view the market through a logical lens, not an emotional one. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks, Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
17
DX - USD Index Longterm Outlook Indicates Further DeclineThis long-term chart shows how the USD Index is trading within the boundaries of the Median Line set. We see the lower extreme, solid support around the Center Line, and the upper extreme acting as resistance. What’s next? Well—if it’s not heading higher, it’s likely heading lower—and the rejection at the Upper Median Line (U-MLH) supports that view. If we revisit the Center Line, my experience tells me it won’t hold—we’ll break through and head even lower. Buckle up. It’s going to be a rough ride.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Gold surged, what will be the trend today?Information summary: On Wednesday, the US dollar index plunged during the session as the CPI data that was lower than expected boosted the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. As of now, the lowest point is near 98.2. After the release of the CPI data, gold rose in the short term and touched the 3360 US dollar mark, and then quickly gave up the gains and retreated to around 3320. However, it rose again due to the sharp escalation of the situation in the Middle East. As of now, the highest is around 3380. Market analysis: From the current 4-hour chart: Yesterday's 3360 pressure level has been broken, and the Asian market has successfully stood above this position in the early trading. Then the suppression position of 3360 has turned into a support level. Therefore, the position we should pay close attention to next should be 3360-3350. If the price falls back to around 3350, it is possible to enter the market and do more. If the price rises again, it is very likely to break through 3400. Once it breaks through 3400, it will most likely reach around 3420. Secondly, from the hourly chart, there are some signs of head and shoulders bottom. It would be perfect if it can fall back and then go up again. But gold cannot fall below 3345 again. If it falls below 3345 again, it cannot be long. Operation strategy: Go long when the price falls back to around 3350, stop loss at 3340, profit range 3375-3400.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
2
How can I use PEGs to trade Forex?Hello everyone, On May 6, we brought you a technical update on the USD/HKD rate (US dollar VS Hong Kong dollar), as the exchange rate was testing the PEG level of 7.75, defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities. The PEG therefore provided solid support, and the exchange rate rebounded strongly. It is now under resistance. We'd like to take this opportunity to offer you an educational update on the notion of the PEG in Forex. The link to our May 6 article is just below. What is a PEG and why use it? A PEG, or fixed-rate exchange rate regime, consists of a central bank maintaining its currency at a stable value against a foreign currency, often the US dollar or the euro. This system aims to reduce exchange rate volatility, and is advantageous for a country's trade and investment. It promotes economic stability, particularly in countries that are heavily dependent on a stable currency. PEGs survive thanks to the considerable reserves mobilized by monetary authorities to support the target exchange rate. PEGs can thus create technical supports or resistances that can be worth exploiting, but caution is sometimes called for, as history has shown that some central banks can abruptly stop defending a PEG. 1) Interesting PEGs currently in force Many countries, particularly in the Middle East, Africa and the Caribbean, maintain a fixed rate against the dollar: Bahrain (BHD), Kuwait (KWD), Oman (OMR), Qatar (QAR), Saudi Arabia (SAR), United Arab Emirates (AED), Panama (PAB). The CFA franc (XOF/XAF), used in 14 African countries, is pegged to the euro at 655.957 CFA per euro. Some PEGs use a currency board or fluctuation band, such as the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) via a band of 7.75-7.85 HKD per USD. This is the support we shared with you on May 6, and the price rebounded strongly. The case of the Singapore dollar (the USD/SGD rate) illustrates yet another sophisticated form of intermediate exchange rate regime. Unlike a fixed-rate policy or a free float, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) steers the value of the SGD through a regime based on a basket of weighted commercial currencies, the exact composition of which remains confidential. This system is based on an unannounced fluctuation band around a central rate, also unpublished. 2) Historical and discontinued PEGs (the landmark episode of the 1.20 PEG on the EUR/CHF rate) The 1.20 PEG between the euro (EUR) and the Swiss franc (CHF) is one of the most significant episodes in the recent history of European exchange rate policies. Here is a detailed summary of this PEG and its spectacular abandonment in January 2015. In September 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) set a floor of CHF 1.20 to EUR 1, i.e. a unilateral PEG (not a classic fixed rate, but a floor rate). On January 15, 2015, the SNB abandoned the PEG without notice, citing the growing divergence between the monetary policies of the ECB (falling rates) and the United States. The immediate result: a historic crash on the Forex market. The EUR/CHF rate dropped instantly from 1.20 to around 0.85-0.90, before stabilizing at around 1.00. The Swiss franc appreciates by almost 30% in a matter of minutes, causing forex intermediaries to go bankrupt, Swiss exporting companies to suffer huge losses and, above all, retail investors who had staked a lot on preserving the CHF 1.15 support level to suffer huge trading losses. 3) The case of the Yuan exchange rate against the US dollar Another emblematic example is that of China, whose exchange rate regime against the US dollar is not a classic PEG, but a hybrid system often referred to as managed floating. Prior to 2005, the yuan (CNY) was firmly pegged to the dollar at a fixed rate of 8.28, maintained since 1994. In 2005, Beijing decided to make this mechanism more flexible, allowing the yuan to appreciate gradually. However, in the face of the global financial crisis, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) once again froze the rate at around 6.83 until 2010. Since then, the regime has evolved towards a more sophisticated system: every morning, the central bank publishes a USD/CNY reference rate, around which the currency is allowed to fluctuate within a narrow band of plus or minus 2%. This daily fixing is based both on recent market movements and on a basket of strategic currencies. Although this system is not a formal PEG. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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Education
by Swissquote
Uncertainty: The Dollar's Unexpected Ally?The recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the Israeli shekel (ILS) serves as a potent illustration of the dollar's enduring role as a safe-haven currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Investors consistently gravitate towards the perceived stability of the dollar during periods of global unrest, leading to its appreciation against more volatile and susceptible currencies, such as the shekel. A significant driver of this dollar demand stems from the precarious security landscape in the Middle East. Reports detailing Israel's potential operation into Iran, coupled with the United States' proactive measures like authorizing voluntary departures of military dependents and preparing for a partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy, signal Washington's anticipation of potential Iranian retaliation. Assertive declarations from Iranian officials, explicitly threatening US military bases and claiming intelligence on Israeli nuclear facilities, further amplify regional risks, compelling investors to seek the dollar's perceived safety. Compounding this geopolitical volatility is the stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy. Hurdles persist not only over core issues, such as uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, but also over the basic scheduling of talks, with both sides expressing diminishing confidence in a resolution. The recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, where the US and European allies introduced a non-compliance resolution against Iran, adds another layer of diplomatic tension, threatening increased sanctions or nuclear expansion and reinforcing the perception of a volatile environment that inherently strengthens the dollar. These escalating tensions have tangible economic repercussions, further fueling investor flight to safety. The immediate aftermath has seen a significant increase in oil prices due to anticipated supply disruptions and a notable depreciation of the Iranian rial against the dollar. Warnings from maritime authorities regarding increased military activity in critical waterways also reflect broad market apprehension. During such periods of instability, capital naturally flows into assets perceived as low-risk, making the US dollar, backed by the world's largest economy and its status as a global reserve currency, the primary beneficiary. This flight-to-safety dynamic during major regional conflicts involving key global players consistently bolsters the dollar's value.
Long
by UDIS_View