SUPER BUY GOLD XAUUSD Gold has ripped all levels of take profit and has gone up and gave us a small amount of drawdown with huge gains in return, simple trading price action and (M&Ws)
Fundamental Analysis
DXY USDOLLAR CRASH Incoming!Long-term fundamentals are bearish
Long-term sentiment = bearish
Long-term technicals = bearish
Trump wants a weaker dollar + FED injecting endless amounts of cash into the markets
driving stocks/ gold up, and the dollar down, losing purchasing power.
My plan is to look for shorts on the 1hr-4hr timeframe with lower timeframe confirmation.
Once price starts turning over, day-traders can join in.
Agree or disagree?
NVIDIA – From Thesis to Profits: How Fundamentals & Technicals 📚💡 NVIDIA – From Thesis to Profits: How Fundamentals & Technicals Aligned 🚀🧠
This isn’t just a trade —it’s a lesson in how conviction, timing, and structure come together when you truly understand what you're investing in.
I’ve been publicly calling NASDAQ:NVDA the “Best Buy of the Decade” since July 2021 when the price was around $18. Why? Because I’m a gamer, I understand chips, and I knew exactly what NVIDIA was building long before AI became a buzzword. From graphics cards to data centers and AI compute, the fundamentals were solid.
But let me be clear: I’m not a holder forever. I use technical analysis to manage entries and exits. And that’s where the real edge comes in. 🎯
Here’s how the trade evolved:
✅ Initial entry: $17.88 (2021)
✅ First target hit: $143.85 → Took profits
✅ Re-entry: $96.85 → Got 33.5% more shares for the same money
✅ Today’s value (July 31st): Up +90.67% in just 100 days
📅 That’s from April 23rd to today.
(and it was ALL publicly posted here, for You!)
This is what happens when macro conviction meets micro execution.
🧠 The key takeaways:
Fundamentals gave me the why.
Technicals gave me the when.
And risk management gave me more shares for free.
That’s not luck —it’s structure, patience, and doing the work. If you’re just “HODLing” and hoping, consider learning how to work the chart instead of letting the chart work you.
Let me know in the comments—did you catch this move? Are you in, or waiting for the next entry?
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
ps. in this case i did not sell many shares today i hedged with a short on SP500. Nvidia might correct a bit
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
How to seize the key turning points in the gold market?The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best strategy. When the trend emerges, jump in; don't buy against it, or you'll suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is a haven for all kinds of resistance, so don't hold onto positions. I'm sure many people have experienced this: the more you hold onto positions, the more panic you become, leading to ever-increasing losses, poor sleep, and missed opportunities. If you share these concerns, why not try following Tian Haoyang's lead and see if it can open your eyes? I'm always here for you if you need help, but how can I help you if you don't even offer a hand?
Gold did not fall below 3280 during the day on Friday and started to fluctuate in the range of 3280-3300. The non-farm payroll data was bullish, and it directly broke through the pressure of 3315, and then broke through the important pressure of 3335 again. As of now, it has reached a high near 3355. The non-farm payroll data market has almost been exhausted. Next, we will focus on the technical form adjustment. At present, you can consider light shorting in the area near 3355-3370. After all, chasing long is risky, and the technical side needs to be adjusted. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me.
Based on the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance is near 3355-3365, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3370-3375. Short-term buy orders should be taken if a rebound continues. I'll provide detailed trading strategies at the bottom of the page, so stay tuned.
Gold operation strategy: Short gold in batches when gold rebounds to 3355-3370, with the target being the area around 3340-3335. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
HBAR Momentum Hbar has gained some momentum lately. This is the ideal rally setup.
It has also yet to see real price discovery past .5
Large trade already opened.
DYOR, I believe this coin has a ton of potential.
Hederas' Council consists of entities like Google, IBM, Boeing Through VentureX, Standard bank.. Just to name a few.
But you all don't care about that.
DAILY SCALPING PLAN | CLINTON SMC STYLE✅ XAU/USD - DAILY SCALPING PLAN | CLINTON SMC STYLE
📆 Date: August 1st, 2025
📍 Strategy: Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
🔑 Focus: Liquidity Sweep | Order Block | BOS | Premium/Discount Model
🔍 Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a manipulation phase after a strong move down from a premium supply zone. The market has swept key liquidity and is preparing for a high-probability move in both directions based on Smart Money footprints.
Current structure suggests:
Bullish intent forming from a discount demand zone.
Liquidity resting above recent highs – perfect for short-term scalps and intraday swings.
🟢 BUY SETUP – DISCOUNT DEMAND REACTION
🎯 Entry: 3275
🛡️ Stop Loss: 3268
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 3285
TP2: 3295
TP3: 3305
TP4: 3315
TP5: 3325
TP6: 3335
Reasoning:
This is a clean bullish OB resting beneath a CHoCH and BOS zone. Price may wick into this area as Smart Money reloads after sweeping early long positions. If held, expect sharp upside expansion toward previous liquidity highs.
🔴 SELL SETUP – PREMIUM SUPPLY REJECTION
🎯 Entry: 3356
🛡️ Stop Loss: 3362
🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 3350
TP2: 3345
TP3: 3340
TP4: 3330
TP5: 3320
Reasoning:
This level is a key supply block where price previously distributed. If price expands into this zone, it’s likely to act as a liquidity magnet for Smart Money to offload longs and enter short-term shorts. Expect reaction.
🧠 SMC Insights
Internal BOS & CHoCH signal early signs of accumulation.
Price respects the premium vs. discount framework with clear liquidity targets.
SMC traders understand that price doesn’t move randomly – it targets liquidity, mitigates OBs, and respects structure.
🔔 Note:
Always wait for clear confirmation (rejection wick, engulfing pattern, or M15 structure shift) before execution. Entries without confirmation are riskier in current volatility.
📌 Follow @ClintonScalper for daily SMC scalping plans & deep institutional insight.
🔁 Like, comment & share if you find this helpful!
What To Expect From XRP In August 2025?Currently, BINANCE:XRPUSDT is trading at $2.99, slipping through the key support level of $3.00. While the altcoin is still over 22% away from its ATH of $3.66 , the foundation for potential growth remains strong. Historical data has shown that August typically brings bearish momentum for BINANCE:XRPUSDT , with median monthly returns of -6% .
However, given the strong buying activity observed recently and the positive technical indicators, this August might defy the usual trend. If BINANCE:XRPUSDT manages to secure support above $3.41, the altcoin could push towards its ATH once again . Alexis Sirkia, Captain at Yellow Network, discussed with BeInCrypto how XRP’s future could be looking like.
“Institutions that have been in the market for a while are gaining momentum. We're also, in the meanwhile, in a macro environment where funds are doing risk rotation… BINANCE:XRPUSDT is taking its stand with regulation and infrastructure, not hype. That's what will endure in the long run. Short-term flows are fleeting, but the groundwork laid today will define the cycle to follow.”
However, there’s a downside risk. If BINANCE:XRPUSDT fails to reclaim the $3.00 support, the price could fall to $2.65, invalidating the bullish thesis. A drop to this level would mark a four-week low and would likely lead to further selling pressure.
Natural Gas Bullish Reversal...Are the Lows in?U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average.
Consensus / forecast was 37Billion Cubic feet.
Despite a much higher build than expected Nat gas saw positive price action.
This appears to simply be a dead cat bounce before we go lower.
A death cross on the daily chart has occurred. This signal often results in a small bounce before going lower.
Gold Market Holds Bearish Structure Below 3291Gold market continues to hold firm within the bearish channel, with 3291 acting as a supply zone, maintaining pressure down toward 3269. As long as this zone remains unbroken, bearish momentum stays in play.
🔍 Key Insight:
3291 = active supply resistance
3269 = short-term target if sentiment holds
follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
Time to catch its breathAfter the break to lower prices in the daily S&P 500 chart, the expectation for Monday is for the market to stop and catch its breath which means are not looking for a big day down on Monday but rather a sideways so only slightly lower move without new fundamental information to stimulate the market.
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (July/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
July/2025
source: EUROSTAT
- Eurozone consumer price inflation held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in July 2025, unchanged from June but slightly above market expectations of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates.
This marks the second consecutive month that inflation has aligned with the European Central Bank’s official target.
A slowdown in services inflation (3.1% vs 3.3% in June) helped offset faster price increases in food, alcohol & tobacco (3.3% vs 3.1%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.8% vs 0.5%).
Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 2.5% following a 2.6% drop in June.
Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco—remained unchanged at 2.3%, its lowest level since January 2022.
USDCHF Short ProjectHi guys...😎
It's time to do a Short Project on USDCHF with 3 key reasons:
1. Price Drivers: Weekly Supply
2. Weekly Trend: down
3. Momentum: bearish
Action: waiting for entry on the intraday timeframe (entry will be published further)
The Low Is In: Why the S&P 500 Just Confirmed a Bullish Reversal🔥 The Low Is In: Why the S&P 500 Just Confirmed a Major Bullish Reversal 🔥
The market just gave us a gift.
After weeks of drifting lower and sentiment turning cautious, the S&P 500 has touched — and bounced — off a critical rising trendline for the third time since May 2025. That third touch isn't just a technical coincidence… it's often the launchpad for a new impulsive leg higher.
📈 The Power of the 3rd Touch: Trendline Validation Complete
Look at the chart. This isn’t guesswork. Since May, the S&P 500 has been respecting a well-defined ascending trendline, one that connects multiple higher lows during this bull run.
The first touch was the May liftoff after the April consolidation.
The second came in June — a clean retest and bounce.
Now, as of early August, the third touch has held once again, exactly where the bulls needed it most.
This isn’t a random line on a chart. This is institutional flow stepping in to defend structure.
And when a rising trendline holds for a third time after a strong uptrend? That’s a classic continuation signal.
📉 RSI Washout + Structural Support = Perfect Storm for a Bottom
The RSI printed a dramatic dip to ~32, a level that screams “oversold” on the 4-hour timeframe. But notice the context — it happened right at structural support.
This is not weakness. This is accumulation.
Big players shake out weak hands on low timeframes… right before they send it.
🧠 Sentiment Is Offside… Again
Let’s not forget: this retrace came after a huge run-up since March. People expected a deeper correction. Bears started getting loud again.
That’s how bull markets trap you — by convincing you it’s over right before the next leg higher.
And with macro tailwinds (liquidity expansion, fiscal spend, tariff rollbacks), earnings season beats, and global capital rotation into U.S. equities, this setup is ripe for a violent upside squeeze.
🚀 8,700 in Sight: My End-of-Year Price Target Is Very Much in Play
Today’s close around 6,220 means the S&P 500 would need to rally ~40% to hit my target of 8,700 by year-end.
Sounds crazy? Not if you’ve seen what happens during parabolic melt-ups.
This isn’t just hope:
📊 Strong breadth under the surface
🏛️ Dovish policy pivot now expected in Q4
💸 Retail and institutional capital both re-engaging
📉 Bond yields are starting to roll over, supporting equity valuations
When bull markets enter their euphoria phase, they don’t stop at “reasonable” targets. They blast through them.
💡 The Setup Is Textbook — Now It’s About Execution
✅ Trendline defended
✅ RSI reset
✅ Sentiment shaken out
✅ Structure intact
The technicals just aligned with the macro. The low is in — and the runway to 8,700 is wide open.
Strap in. Q4 could be one for the history books.
How to correctly grasp the gold trading opportunities?Yesterday, gold prices saw a technical rally amidst volatile trading, followed by a downward trend under pressure. Bulls strongly supported a rebound at 3280 in the Asian session. The European session saw an accelerated upward move, breaking through 3314 before retreating under pressure. We also precisely positioned short positions below 3315, achieving a perfect target of 3290-3295. During the US session, the market again faced pressure at 3311, weakening in a volatile trend before breaking through 3300. The daily chart ultimately closed with a medium-sized bullish candlestick pattern, followed by a pullback and then a decline.
Overall, after yesterday's rebound, gold prices remain under pressure at the key resistance level of 3314. The short-term bearish weakness line has moved down to this level. If pressure continues in this area in the short term, gold will maintain a weak and volatile structure, with intraday trading remaining focused on rebounds and upward moves. If you are currently experiencing confusion or unsatisfactory trading strategies, please feel free to discuss your options and help avoid investment pitfalls.
From a 4-hour analysis perspective, focus on resistance at 3305-3315 on the upside. A rebound to this level is a good opportunity to short against resistance. Focus on support at 3280-3270 on the downside. Unless the price stabilizes strongly, consider not entering long positions below this level. The overall strategy remains to short on rebounds, with the same rhythm. I will provide timely notifications of specific levels from the bottom, so keep an eye on them.
Gold Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds near 3305-3315, with targets at 3290-3280-3270.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 – Ratio Signals Strength, Chart favors BTC!🚀📊 Bitcoin vs S&P 500 – Ratio Signals Strength, Even If Stocks Correct 🔍📈
After posting earlier today about VOO (S&P 500 ETF) and the index itself hitting major resistance, I wanted to shift our focus to what could shine even if stocks pull back: Bitcoin.
This chart shows the BTCUSD/SPX ratio – in simple terms, how Bitcoin is performing relative to the S&P 500 . And what do we see? Clear, technical strength.
🔍 Key Observations:
BTC/SPX is currently breaking out from a bullish flag structure just above the 17.30–17.48 region
If the breakout holds, the projected technical target is near 26.37, the top of this multi-year channel
Historically, previous breakouts from similar zones have delivered explosive upside, even when equities struggled
🧠 So what does this mean?
Even if the stock market pulls back—as suggested in our earlier VOO/US500 chart—Bitcoin could still outperform, simply by dropping less, consolidating, or rising while stocks fall. That’s the power of analyzing ratios, not just absolute price.
We’ve already discussed how macro metrics like the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) are showing equity overvaluation. If capital starts rotating out of equities, Bitcoin is positioned as a beneficiary—especially if it maintains this relative strength.
💬 Final thoughts:
Don’t just look at BTC in isolation— look at it relative to what it's competing against
Ratios offer perspective: this one says Bitcoin’s trend vs stocks is up and strong
With solid support at 14.23 and room to run toward 26.37, this could be a chart to watch for months ahead
Are you watching this breakout? Let me know what your game plan is.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: With Gold prices easing, stock markets at all time highs, is this the PERFECT time for big money to hedge with Bitcoin? Likely yes !
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
NFP Friday - XAUUSD Prediction - August 2025#NFP Friday + New Month 👇
- Still leaning bearish on TVC:GOLD
- New month = re-positioning flows
- Watching 3225–3250 zone (Fib 38/50 confluence)
- Clean pullback setup near Psy level & untested orders
News Prediction:
- Labor market still holding up, I’m thinking NFP prints closer to 130k–150k, not that 110k estimate
- Yes, tech & retail saw some layoffs, but not enough to tank the whole report
- Adapt if wrong, execute if right. No stress
#XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #Dollar #NFPFriday #XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #JobsReport #Dollar #Macro #Trading #MarketOutlook #NFPFriday
XAUUSD
XAUUSD Updated in 15M :
The gold signal is marked on the chart based on the latest price changes and the supply and demand in the market. These points include the entry point, stop loss, and take profit
ETHUSDT - FUTURES SIGNAL FUTURES SIGNAL
Coin: ETH
Direction: LONG
🟢Input range: market/3578
✔️ТР: 3726/3902
❌SL: 3501
We work from the order block zone, in which I expect a price reversal.
Can XRP obtain a 50% increase in the next few weeks XRP has recently been under a lot of manipulation lately! Is it time for the bulls to finally step in and move the price point on this digital asset to a 50 percent increase to another ATH at $4.45………? The world will see with the next few weeks! And why is #Bradgarlinghouse X account always following 589………..? It’s it a signal or is he just trolling
VIX: From “Calm Tension” to a ReboundWhy does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years?
The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility.
The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1.
At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again.
🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked
📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger
Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout
Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns
Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data
Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners
Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline.
1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025
Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%).
Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45).
MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023.
Key drivers:
🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut.
👷♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected).
🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns.
2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm
Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1)
🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9
🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division
👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down
📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway
💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal
Conclusion:
2024 was a systemic shock.
2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management.
3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor
The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes.
Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks.
Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows.
4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next?
📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk
Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets
Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook
End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation
📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay.
📌 Final thoughts
The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message.
The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending.
History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced.
If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
EUR/JPY Setup: Retail is 82% Short – Squeeze First, Drop After?🔹 Technical Context
Price reacted with a strong bullish wick in the 169.50–170.30 demand zone, signaling clear buyer defense. The RSI bounced from weakness but remains subdued, showing limited momentum.
📍 Current price action suggests a potential retest of the 172.50–173.30 area, which aligns with a supply zone, before a possible directional decision is made.
🗓️ Seasonality
Historically, August tends to be bearish for EUR/JPY:
5Y average: -0.48%
10Y average: -0.12%
15Y/20Y averages: -1.3% and -1.2%
📉 Seasonality indicates potential weakness, especially in the second half of the month.
🪙 COT Report (EURO & YEN) – July 22
EURO: Strong long accumulation by non-commercials (+6,284) and commercials (+17,575)
JPY: Net decline in both longs (-1,033) and shorts (-4,096), with a drop in total open interest
🧠 The market is heavily positioned on the Euro, while Yen positioning is fading. This creates a divergence between the two currencies, favoring a short-term technical bounce on EUR/JPY, though downside risks remain in the mid-term.
📉 Sentiment
82% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY
Volume: 1,564 lots short vs 352 lots long
📣 This extreme sentiment imbalance suggests a potential short-term squeeze against retail traders.
📊 Market Mood & DPO
Overall mood: Neutral
DPO at -9.0, Wyckoff score below 50
Momentum remains weak, but not showing a clear divergence.
🧩 Operational Summary
Retest of the 172.50–173.30 supply zone
Likely exhaustion in that area
Ideal setup: rejection + bearish confirmation
→ Targets: 170.30, then 169.00
Gold is significantly bullish, where can we short?The positive non-farm payroll report pushed the market from 3300 directly above 3330, demonstrating overall bullish momentum. Congratulations again, everyone. Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment journey. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely. Charlie advises against blindly chasing highs. Trading advice (first hit is valid): Focus on key support levels: 3300 and 3310. Go long if these levels are reached.
~For those who want to go short above 3350-55, only use a stop-loss and feel free to try~ PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD CMCMARKETS:GOLD VANTAGE:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1!
Happy Friday, folks!
Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k).
Other key labor market indicators were as follows:
• US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%)
• US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
• US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%)
• US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%)
Data and Key Events Recap:
What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline.
U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2.
Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993.
Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference:
• On current policy stance:
“We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.”
Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate.
• On labor market risks:
“By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.”
• On inflation and tariffs:
“It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.”
Trade Headlines:
US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%.
The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage.
Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025.
The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook?
Market Implications
Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them.
Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve?
Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill.
This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year.
Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
