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TONUSDT Analysis – Trendline Breakout | Liquidity| Arc + Target📈 Chart Summary: The TONUSDT 30-minute chart presents a clean smart-money setup after a trendline breakout, volume absorption, and liquidity fill, supported by a beautifully formed ARC accumulation pattern. This structure hints at institutional involvement and a strategic roadmap for the next probable moves. 🔎 Technical Components Breakdown 1️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Shift in Structure Price had been following a descending trendline with multiple touches, establishing bearish market structure. Eventually, that trendline was violently broken to the upside, signaling a change in character (CHOCH) – one of the first signs of a potential bullish reversal. The breakout candle was strong, with a wide body and notable bullish volume. This often indicates institutional interest or engineered breakout via a stop-hunt. 2️⃣ Volume Absorption – Smart Money Accumulation After the breakout, the price didn't immediately rally. Instead, it consolidated with wicks on both sides – a sign of volume absorption. This is where smart money absorbs opposing orders, typically absorbing sellers before a larger directional move. This consolidation confirmed the idea of liquidity engineering – they trap liquidity (shorts) and use it as fuel. 3️⃣ Liquidity Filled – Stop Hunt Behavior A sharp wick into previous highs grabbed resting liquidity, filling orders and sweeping stop losses. This action invalidated weak resistance, setting up the platform for a larger move. 🧠 Conceptual Structure – ARC Play & Reversal Dynamics ✅ ARC Formation – Rounded Accumulation Base The light green arc highlights the rounded bottom, a common technical pattern representing accumulation over time. This kind of base often indicates that smart money is building positions silently, especially after a significant downtrend. In this context, the ARC acts as a dynamic support, and the structure mimics the reversal of market sentiment from bearish to bullish. 🌀 FMFR Zone – “First Move Fake, Then Reversal” Labeled FMFR zone between 3.22–3.26 signifies a potential trap setup. The expectation is a manipulated downward move (fakeout) that will be quickly reversed, catching breakout sellers off-guard. Smart traders can use this as a high-probability re-entry zone by waiting for wick rejection, engulfing candles, or bullish divergences. 📍 Short-Term Targets & Zones 🟩 Next Mini Reversal Zone – 3.38 to 3.42 This is a probable area for minor pullback or distribution, especially for scalpers or short-term trades. Price may stall here due to earlier supply and psychological round levels. 🟦 Remaining Liquidity Zones – 3.55 to 3.63 Higher timeframe liquidity remains uncollected above. If bullish momentum continues with support from volume and structure, expect price to sweep these levels next. These zones are ideal for medium-term swing targets. 🧾 Trade Setup Idea (Not Financial Advice) Item Details Entry On rejection/confirmation within FMFR zone (3.22–3.26) Stop-Loss Below arc support or structural low (3.18 area) TP1 3.38 (Mini reversal zone) TP2 3.55 (Liquidity target 1) TP3 3.63+ (Extended target) 📘 Market Psychology in Action Fear/Greed Play: Initial selloff invited fear, smart money accumulates quietly via the arc. Fakeout traps greed and late shorts. Trap-Reversal Model: FMFR zones exploit retail stops, offering entries for institutional players. Liquidity Mapping: The chart clearly maps how price is attracted to uncollected liquidity zones – a classic order flow approach.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
GOLD → Countertrend correction, retest of 3345 before growthFX:XAUUSD , undergoing a deep correction after a false breakout of local resistance at 3433, has reached the support of the upward trend. Will the bulls be able to maintain the trend? Gold held below $3,400 on Friday, rebounding from $3,350, and is poised to end the week higher. Investors are watching the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which is boosting demand for safe-haven assets, and are also awaiting decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Japan next week. The markets received additional support from US trade deals with Asian countries and progress in negotiations with the EU, easing fears of a tariff war. As part of the correction, gold is testing trend support and the 3345-3337 zone of interest. A false breakdown, lack of downward momentum, and bulls holding prices above 3345 could trigger growth and a continuation of the main upward trend. Resistance levels: 3375, 3383 Support levels: 3345, 3337, 3330 Technically, the support level of 3345 plays a fairly important role in the market. If, during the correction, the bulls manage to hold their ground above this zone, the prospects for recovery will be high, especially against the backdrop of geopolitical problems. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
GBPUSD → Retest of previously broken resistance...FX:GBPUSD has entered a correction phase after breaking through the local downtrend. If the price remains in the 1.3450–1.346 zone, this will confirm the formation of a new trading range... The market is entering a correction phase due to the dollar. A countertrend retest of the support zone is forming. Earlier, the currency pair broke the local trend and is entering a flat phase. The retest of support may end with a recovery. If, within the local movement and after a false breakout of the 1.345 - 1.3467 zone, the bulls keep the price above the buying zone, then in the short and medium term, we can expect growth to continue. Support levels: 1.3467, 1.345 Resistance levels: 1.35, 1.3584 A false breakdown of support at 1.3467 will confirm a change in the local trend (correction). The market may return to the recovery phase of the global trend. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
8
Simple EURGBP Analysis (MMC) – Bullish Continuation or Reversal?🕵️‍♂️ Chart Overview – 30-Min Timeframe (OANDA) This EURGBP chart illustrates a classic bullish continuation structure following a volume absorption phase and pennant formation, leading into a vertical price expansion toward a potential reversal zone. The technical flow demonstrates smart money accumulation and re-accumulation before a sharp bullish leg. 🔷 Phase 1: Bullish Accumulation via Pennant Formation The chart begins with a tight consolidation structure marked as a pennant, typically a continuation pattern. This area coincides with “Previous 2x Demand”, hinting at a strong institutional buying interest. The Volume Absorption label suggests that sell-side liquidity was efficiently absorbed—often a precursor to bullish breakouts. 📈 Phase 2: Breakout & Price Expansion Price breaks out of the pennant aggressively, validating the absorption theory. The post-breakout rally continues with minimal retracement, showcasing impulsive bullish momentum. The QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) is also marked—this serves as a structural footprint left by trapped sellers. 🟩 Next Levels to Watch: Reversal or Re-Entry Zones As the price approaches the green "Next Reversal Zone" (0.87650–0.87700), watch for potential exhaustion or a reaction. The Central Zone of 2x Demand (just below 0.87500) could act as a re-entry level for continuation long setups. Anticipated short-term correction before continuation, as depicted by the projected path. 🧠 Strategic Insight & Trade Planning Aggressive Bulls: May target breakout pullbacks near the Central Zone of Demand for intraday continuation. Conservative Traders: Should wait for a clean reaction from the green Reversal Zone. If rejection is confirmed, short opportunities with tight stops become favorable. Watch the price behavior around 0.87300–0.87500—this will likely dictate whether continuation or correction prevails.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Losing over and over again? Losing over and over again? The problem isn’t your strategy – it’s your mind. Let’s be honest: Are you repeating the same old mistakes… even though you know they’re wrong? You know you shouldn’t enter a trade without confirmation – but you still do. You know you should stick to your stop-loss – but you move it. You know your mindset is unstable today – but you still open the chart and… click. So stop blaming the market. You’re not losing because the market is cruel. You’re losing because you can’t control yourself. 💣 The most dangerous psychological trap: Knowing it's wrong – but doing it anyway It’s not because you lack knowledge. It’s not because your system doesn’t work. It’s because your emotions are running the show. Ask yourself: Have you ever traded just to escape boredom, helplessness, or emotional emptiness? Have you ever used the chart to hide from real-life pressure? Have you ever placed a trade just to relieve stress? If your answer is yes... then the problem isn’t technical. It’s psychological – and deeper still, it’s emotional. 👹 The 3 emotional demons controlling your trading – and you don’t even realise it 1. FOMO – You fear being left behind more than you desire to win You see price running → you see others making money → you feel the pressure. You think: “I can’t miss this move!” → You jump in impulsively, without analysis. FOMO reflects a lack of trust in yourself. You don’t believe more opportunities will come. You’re not trading with clarity – you’re reacting from fear. 2. Revenge Trading – You can’t accept the feeling of being “wrong” Every loss feels like humiliation. You can’t handle being “mistaken.” So you fight the market back – like someone who’s lost all reason. But the market doesn’t care if you’re hurt. You’re projecting your frustration onto a system that has no emotion. → In that moment, you’re no longer a trader – you’re a gambler trying to ease emotional pain. 3. Overtrading – You measure your worth by how many trades you win You only feel valuable when you’re making money. You hate “doing nothing” – it makes you feel useless. So you keep trading – endlessly, irrationally. Overtrading reflects a deep fear of stillness and lack of control. You seek validation… from your trading account. 🔍 Painful truth: You’re not losing because of the market – you’re losing because of unrealistic expectations You expect to always be right. You expect to get rich quickly. You expect to prove something – to others and to yourself. You pressure yourself to perform – and when results don’t come, your psychology collapses. You’re not trading to beat the market. You’re trading to fix something inside yourself. ✅ The solution? It’s not more knowledge – it’s emotional honesty Stop trading the moment you feel out of control – whether you're winning or losing. Keep an emotional journal daily – even on days you don’t trade. Be raw. Be real. No excuses. Ask the right questions: Am I trading to make money – or to soothe an emotional void? Am I entering because of a setup – or because I’m afraid of missing out? Do inner work outside of trading: meditate, exercise, heal emotionally, take breaks, talk to someone who gets it. 💬 Final thought: Losing isn’t scary – what’s scary is never facing the real reason behind your losses. Stop searching for the next shiny indicator. Stop chasing strategies with a “90% win rate.” You just need a decent system – and a strong mind to execute it. True success comes when you no longer use trading to prove yourself – but treat it like a calm, patient profession. #TradingPsychology #EmotionalDiscipline #FOMOTrading #RevengeTrading #Overtrading #MindsetMatters #TraderGrowth #SelfAwareness #TradingUK #ForexEducation #InnerGameOfTrading #ConsistencyIsKey #MentalEdge
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
1
Gold - Bullish and here's whyPrice traveled within the Red Fork, until it broke the CIB Line, which is indicating a Change In Behavior. From there on, sideways action, until the break of the Red U-MLH happened. After the close above the Red U-MLH, price has tested it the 3rd time now. At the time of writing, the Bar looks like a PinBar. So it has good sepparation from the bottom, or a long Down-Wick. That's indicates good strenght. To me this looks like a good long trade, but as everytime, play it save and don't let greed eat your brain ;-)
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTCUSD Analysis : Channel Break + QFL Setup | Structure Analysis📊 Chart Overview This 2H BTCUSD chart reveals a comprehensive view of market behavior transitioning from a phase of consolidation into a potential breakout or further rejection. The price action is analyzed inside a parallel channel, transitioning into a curved resistance path, which is currently governing the market structure. 🔵 Phase 1: Consolidation Inside a Straight Channel Price has respected a clear ascending channel (highlighted in blue) from July 16 to July 24. This phase shows a range-bound movement with defined supply and demand zones. Labelled as “Straight Channel or Consolidation”, this represents a potential accumulation/distribution zone. The Channel Previous Supply Interchange marks an important S/R flip zone, now serving as a key reference for future reactions. 🔻 Phase 2: Break of Structure & Curved Resistance Price broke down below the channel support and is now respecting a downward curved trendline. This indicates a shift in momentum from neutral to bearish, forming lower highs. A sharp drop occurred post-channel exit, marking a QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) area—hinting at smart money involvement or liquidation hunt. 🔁 Reversal Scenarios & Key Levels There are two possible future paths visualized: 🟥 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation Price respects the curved trendline, failing to break resistance. A rejection near the current region (~117.5k) could lead price back toward: Central Zone Reversal near 115,000 USD Further into the 100% Reversal Zone (green zone) near 113,500–114,000 USD Ideal for short entries after clear rejection confirmations. 🟩 Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Price breaks and sustains above the curved resistance. Temporary resistance seen at Minor level (~120,000 USD), followed by Major resistance near 121,000 USD. This scenario requires bullish volume and reclaim of structure, invalidating the short bias. 🧠 Strategic Viewpoint & Trade Mindset Market is at a decision point—either confirming a bearish rejection from dynamic resistance or invalidating it for a bullish reversal. Patience is key; wait for either: A failed breakout attempt (short opportunity), or A confirmed breakout and retest (long opportunity). Use lower timeframes (15m–1h) for execution once direction is confirmed.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold is going down. It may continue next week.On the last trading day of this week, the bears attacked strongly and continued to refresh the recent lows, reaching the lowest point near 3325 before stopping. From Monday's 3345 to 3440, it closed near 3337. This week, it also walked out of the large range roller coaster pattern, and all the strengths in the previous period did not exist. Under the continuous downward trend, the bulls were also vulnerable, and there was not even a strong rebound, which indirectly explained the strength of the bears in the short term. As for the current trend, the bears are likely to continue to be strong, and before there is a symbolic upward breakthrough, we still need to maintain the idea of ​​shorts to operate. The current upper pressure is maintained near 3350, which is also the bottom position touched for the first time in the previous period. It is possible that it will be transformed into a top-bottom conversion pattern; and the strong support level below is near 3310. When the Asian market opens next Monday, we need to pay close attention to whether there is a gap problem on both the bulls and bears. After three consecutive negative daily lines, all the moving average systems have been broken, and it is also likely to form a resonance pressure pattern. On Monday, gold will first touch around 3350 and continue to short. The profit range will be around 3330-3320, and the stop loss will be 3360. If the European session is stronger, you can adjust the point before the US session.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by quaid_2
XAUUSD Analysis : Reversal Zone & Trendline Break Setup 🧠 Market Breakdown (Based on MMC Concepts) Gold (XAU/USD) recently touched an All-Time High, followed by a sharp correction respecting a clean descending trendline — confirming strong selling pressure in the short term. After price completed a Channel Supply zone (highlighted), it dropped significantly and created a 2x Supply Structure along with a QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) — a strong indication of liquidity engineering by smart money. Now, price has entered the Major Reversal Zone, which aligns with a key minor structural demand level. The reaction here becomes highly important, as it could mark the beginning of a new bullish leg. 📌 Technical Conditions Trendline (Condition 1): Still active; breakout confirmation required for bullish entry. Reversal Zone (Demand Area): Price currently reacting; signs of rejection forming. Smart Money Behavior: Liquidity sweep + QFL zone = potential institutional accumulation. Momentum Watch: Look for bullish engulfing or strong pin bar as confirmation. 🎯 Price Levels to Watch Upside Targets: 🔹 TP1: 3,360 – 3,380 🔹 TP2: 3,420 – 3,440 Invalidation Zone: 🔻 Break and close below 3,300 = bearish continuation likely. 💡 Conclusion Gold is approaching a decision point. If this reversal zone holds and we break the trendline, we could see a strong rally back toward previous supply zones. However, failure to hold could bring price lower for further liquidity grabs. Stay patient. Let price confirm.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
MATRIMONY.COMMatrimony.com Ltd. is a tech-enabled matchmaking services company operating across digital platforms under brands like BharatMatrimony, EliteMatrimony, and CommunityMatrimony. It offers subscription-based packages, personalized services, and mobile-first engagement across regions and vernacular preferences. The company serves millions of registered users and remains a leader in online matrimony in India. The stock is currently trading at ₹665.50. Matrimony.com Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot Sales – ₹429 Cr → ₹458 Cr → ₹492 Cr → ₹528 Cr – Steady growth supported by new monetization features and user base expansion Net Profit – ₹53.6 Cr → ₹61.2 Cr → ₹69.7 Cr → ₹77.5 Cr – Profitability improving with cost optimization and tiered pricing Company Order Book – Moderate → Moderate → Strong → Strong – Increasing user acquisition and subscription traction Dividend Yield (%) – 0.60% → 0.63% → 0.66% → 0.70% – Modest payout ratio with sustained cash flow Operating Performance – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – Platform-led scalability and cost control driving margins Equity Capital – ₹11.53 Cr (constant) – Lean capital structure Total Debt – ₹0 Cr (debt-free) – Fully equity-financed growth Total Liabilities – ₹215 Cr → ₹222 Cr → ₹230 Cr → ₹237 Cr – Aligned with subscription and platform expansion Fixed Assets – ₹45 Cr → ₹48 Cr → ₹51 Cr → ₹54 Cr – Light tech capex focused on app upgrades and AI deployment Latest Highlights FY25 net profit rose 11.2% YoY to ₹77.5 Cr; revenue increased 7.3% to ₹528 Cr EPS: ₹13.40 | EBITDA Margin: 26.9% | Net Margin: 14.67% Return on Equity: 18.55% | Return on Assets: 13.62% Promoter holding: 50.04% | Dividend Yield: 0.70% Strong growth from mobile-driven matchmaking and vernacular user base AI matching engine upgrades and tiered subscription pricing aiding retention Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding remains consistent at 50.04%, with no pledging or dilution. Institutional interest is moderate, typical of niche tech mid-caps. Delivery volumes show continued buying from domestic tech-focused funds and selective PMS desks. Business Growth Verdict Yes, Matrimony.com is growing steadily with platform-driven scale and loyalty Margins and cash flows remain robust given the asset-light model Debt-free structure and strong operating efficiency enhance visibility Tech innovation and vernacular engagement widen addressable market Company Guidance Management expects mid-single-digit revenue growth in FY26, led by mobile app enhancements, community targeting, and AI-backed subscription personalization. Final Investment Verdict Matrimony.com Ltd. presents a stable mid-cap tech story built on data-led personalization and regional content strategy. With consistent earnings, strong promoter backing, and expanding digital presence, the company is well-positioned for sustainable compounding. The asset-light model, debt-free structure, and improving margin mix make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking tech-enabled consumer exposure in India’s evolving digital economy.
NSE:MATRIMONYLong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
GOLD continues to correct down, good news from trade situationOANDA:XAUUSD has fallen sharply again, currently trading around $3,360/oz, reflecting the easing of global trade tensions, affecting demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar and US Treasury yields have also increased, affecting gold prices. The US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ), which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 97.56. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note US10Y rose to 4.386%. The US real yield, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, rose nearly 3.5 basis points to 2.046%. Markets are increasingly optimistic about such deals after the United States and Japan reached a trade deal, and the European Union could be next. In addition, rising stock markets and low volatility have kept gold's gains in check. The United States and the European Union are moving toward a potential trade deal that would include a 15% tariff on EU goods and zero tariffs on some items. The European Commission said Thursday that a negotiated trade solution with the United States is within reach. “Our focus is on reaching a negotiated outcome with the United States,” a European Commission spokesperson told reporters about the EU-U.S. tariff talks. “We believe that such an outcome is achievable.” The European Commission has repeatedly said that its current priority is to reach a deal with the United States to avoid the 30% tariffs that U.S. President Trump has proposed to impose on EU products starting August 1. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the job market remains solid. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 in the week ended July 19, below expectations of 227,000 and down from 221,000 the previous week. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is heading for its third consecutive day of decline since hitting the bullish target level sent to readers in the weekly edition on Sunday at $3,430. Despite the sharp decline, gold still has enough technical conditions for an uptrend given its current position and structure. Specifically, gold is still above the EMA21, which is considered the nearest support at the moment. Along with that, the uptrend price channel is the short-term trend. However, for gold to qualify for a short-term bullish cycle, it needs to be confirmed by price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target is $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. On the other hand, RSI is still holding above 50, and 50 in this case acts as momentum support. Therefore, gold still has room to rise. In case gold is sold below EMA21, it may suffer a further decline with the next target around $3,310 in the short term, more than $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And if gold loses the support at the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it will qualify for a bearish cycle. Intraday, the current position of gold price is still tilted towards the upside, and the notable price points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3326 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Smart Money concepts (SMC) Positive points of the analysis: 1. Clarity in the market structure (CHoCH + BOS): It is clear that the market made a CHoCH and then confirmed it with a Break of Structure (BOS), which validates the downward trend change. 2. Well-identified fake out: The "fake out" just after the BOS and within the 1H-OB is typical institutional behavior. This bullish wick is a trap to induce liquidity before the fall. Excellent reading. 3. Confluence zone (1H-OB + 1H-FVG): The price rises to mitigate the 1H-FVG within the 1H-OB, providing a very good entry opportunity. Furthermore, this occurs within the resistance zone, which gives it even more weight. 4. Support zone and target at 3310: The TP is very well projected at 3310, just below the current support zone. If it breaks that zone, it is highly likely that it will reach the target.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Fonseca87
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Strengths of the analysis: 1. Break of Structure (Choch + Bos) A break of Structure (Bos) is clearly identified after s Choch, indicating the star of a new bearish structure. 2. OB 1H and FVG as an entry zone: the price returns to a block order (OB-1H) within the resistance zone, which is an excellent institucional area to look for a short entry. Furthermore, the presence of a FVG on the 1H provides additional confluence. 3.Projection toward the last LL (Lower Low): It is very accurate to project the bearish continuation toward the support zone, which coincides with the last LL, an area with a high probability of being mitigated.....
Short
by Fonseca87
Shark harmonic pattern --- ### 🦈 What Is the Shark Harmonic Pattern? - **Discovered by**: Scott Carney in 2011 - **Foundation**: Combines **Fibonacci ratios** with **Elliott Wave Theory** - **Purpose**: Identifies potential **trend reversals** using precise geometric price structures - **Structure**: Five points labeled **O, X, A, B, C** (not the usual XABCD) - **Key Feature**: Relies heavily on the **88.6% Fibonacci retracement** and **113% extension** --- ### 📐 Pattern Geometry & Ratios | Leg | Description | Fibonacci Ratio Range | |------------|--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | XA | Initial impulse leg | No specific ratio | | AB | Extension beyond X | 113% to 161.8% of XA | | BC | Completion leg | 88.6% to 113% of OX | | | | 161.8% to 224% of AB | - **Point B** must **exceed point X**, forming an **Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave** - **Point C** is the **Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)** --- ### 🛒 Buy Setup (Bullish Shark) 1. **No fixed retracement for A** 2. **B extends 113%–161.8% of XA** 3. **C completes at**: - 88.6%–113% of OX - 161.8%–224% of AB 📍 **Entry**: Near point C 📍 **Stop Loss**: Below point C 📍 **Target**: Retracement levels of BC (e.g., 50%, 61.8%), or back to point A/B --- ### 📉 Sell Setup (Bearish Shark) 1. **No fixed retracement for A** 2. **B extends 113%–161.8% of XA** 3. **C completes at**: - 88.6%–113% of OX - 161.8%–224% of AB 📍 **Entry**: Near point C 📍 **Stop Loss**: Above point C 📍 **Target**: Retracement levels of BC, or back to point A/B --- ### 📊 Real Trade Example & Educational Resources In the comment
Education
by Elrouby
1
Shark harmonic pattern Absolutely, Amedeo! Here's a detailed and visually engaging breakdown of the **Shark Harmonic Pattern**, including its structure, trading styles, and how it connects Fibonacci ratios with Elliott Wave Theory: --- ### 🦈 What Is the Shark Harmonic Pattern? - **Discovered by**: Scott Carney in 2011 - **Foundation**: Combines **Fibonacci ratios** with **Elliott Wave Theory** - **Purpose**: Identifies potential **trend reversals** using precise geometric price structures - **Structure**: Five points labeled **O, X, A, B, C** (not the usual XABCD) - **Key Feature**: Relies heavily on the **88.6% Fibonacci retracement** and **113% extension** --- ### 📐 Pattern Geometry & Ratios | Leg | Description | Fibonacci Ratio Range | |------------|--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | XA | Initial impulse leg | No specific ratio | | AB | Extension beyond X | 113% to 161.8% of XA | | BC | Completion leg | 88.6% to 113% of OX | | | | 161.8% to 224% of AB | - **Point B** must **exceed point X**, forming an **Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave** - **Point C** is the **Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)** --- ### 🛒 Buy Setup (Bullish Shark) 1. **No fixed retracement for A** 2. **B extends 113%–161.8% of XA** 3. **C completes at**: - 88.6%–113% of OX - 161.8%–224% of AB 📍 **Entry**: Near point C 📍 **Stop Loss**: Below point C 📍 **Target**: Retracement levels of BC (e.g., 50%, 61.8%), or back to point A/B --- ### 📉 Sell Setup (Bearish Shark) 1. **No fixed retracement for A** 2. **B extends 113%–161.8% of XA** 3. **C completes at**: - 88.6%–113% of OX - 161.8%–224% of AB 📍 **Entry**: Near point C 📍 **Stop Loss**: Above point C 📍 **Target**: Retracement levels of BC, or back to point A/B --- ### 📊 Real Trade Example & Educational Resources are in the comment
by Elrouby
“Buy the rumor, sell the news” --- ### 🎯 **“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” – A Trader’s Mind Game** Imagine you’re not just following the market… you’re dancing ahead of it. This strategy flips traditional thinking on its head—and rewards those bold enough to act **before** the spotlight hits. --- ### 🕵️‍♂️ **Step One: Buy the Rumor** - Traders catch whispers—like talk of a potential interest rate hike. - The markets start to react *before* anything official is announced. - Assets like gold might drop on the expectation alone… that’s your **entry point**. You're not buying certainty. You're buying what the crowd *thinks* will happen. --- ### 🔊 **Step Two: Sell the News** - Once the news breaks, it's already "old" to seasoned traders. - That shocking headline? Already priced in. - The market might reverse or surge unpredictably. - This is when savvy traders exit, locking in profits from those who just arrived. --- ### 🧠 **Why It Works** - Financial markets aren’t just driven by facts—they’re powered by **sentiment** and **anticipation**. - By the time news goes public, smart money has already moved. It’s like buying concert tickets before the band announces a tour—then selling them the moment fans go wild. --- ### 📉 **A Real Example** - **Monday Rumor**: “The Fed will raise interest rates.” - Gold begins to slide as traders prepare—this is your chance to act. - **Thursday News**: The hike is confirmed. - Instead of dropping further, gold might **rise** due to market overreaction or repositioning. - You **sell** into that chaos—profit made. ---
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Elrouby
IBM Rebound Trade - Buying the Pullback at Key ConfluenceSetup: IBM is setting up for a potential high-conviction long entry around the $245 level, a price zone marked by multiple layers of technical confluence and volume-based support. Over the last 18 months, IBM has seen two notable pullbacks—both in the 17–20% range, often around earnings events. The current drawdown is consistent with this historical behavior and may represent an opportunity rather than a breakdown. Technicals & Indicators Volume Profile Support: Using a volume profile anchored from January 2024, a clear volume shelf exists between $245 and $265. A second profile anchored 10 months ago confirms heavy volume at $260 and $245, indicating high institutional activity and potential support zones. 200-Day Moving Average: IBM has consistently respected its 200-day MA over the past two years. The MA is now converging at $245, adding dynamic trendline support. Fibonacci Retracement: Applying retracements from the April 2025 lows to the recent ~ $300 highs, the $245 level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a key zone for potential reversals. GAP Fill: Looking for the recent earnings gap to close within the next 2 months, as we see new opportunities for tech companies and rising demand. This overreaction created a gap that should be filled as investors digest the macro strength and re-enter long positions in IBM. Gap close ~ $280 level. Candles & Buying Pressure: Recent daily volume after earnings suggests strong buying pressure with a hammer/doji candle forming on the day after earnings. Investors are already buying back into this name. Fundamentals & Business Operations: Despite the post-earnings dip, IBM continues to display strong business fundamentals: Free Cash Flow (TTM): ~$12.3B, supporting dividends and future investment. FCF Margin: 19.1% Gross Margin: ~58% | Operating Margin: ~ 17% Forward P/E: ~22.45x | EV/EBITDA: ~19.85x Dividend Yield: 2.6% These metrics reflect operational efficiency, cash generation, and relative undervaluation compared to peers—especially given IBM’s AI and hybrid cloud positioning that remains strong. With margins that continue to be at the top of the industry, IBM also has the resources to execute on the tremendous opportunities arising in the tech world. Macro & Industry Context: We’re in the early stages of a long-term AI and data center growth cycle, and IBM, while not the most popular AI name, is deeply embedded in enterprise infrastructure, consulting, and mainframe compute. Their recent earnings beat didn’t change that narrative. Investor sentiment overreacted, giving patient traders a potential entry on weakness. Analysts still hold a buy on this name with price targets well above $270. This isn't a one-day trade, but in a few weeks, let's see where the market is at. Price Targets & Risk/Reward: Entry Zone: $245 (watch for confirmation & strength) Target 1: $280 (resistance level with high volume in the range) Optional Long-Term Hold: If the broader AI trend continues, IBM could break all-time highs and trend above $300 over time. Strategy & Patience: This is not a chase setup. I will wait for $245 to be reached and confirmed—a level backed by technical support, volume profile, and long-term valuation logic. If IBM holds and reverses with strength, this could be a strong swing trade or even a long-term position for investors who want value with AI exposure. I will be looking for a confirmation(maybe a candle pattern) before entering the trade, but if it gets there, I see good potential for a bounce.
NYSE:IBMLong
by RocDiDo
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