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Fundamental Analysis

Gold on Monday depends on this wave of operationsBefore the non-agricultural data on Friday, gold maintained an overall oscillating pattern, opening at 3354, briefly rising to around 3375 and then falling under pressure, entering an overall oscillating downward mode. We also caught the rhythm of long orders many times and successfully exited the market with profits. Although the non-agricultural data was bearish, gold did not dive quickly, but rebounded to around 3363 after short-term fluctuations, and then fell under pressure again, and finally closed in an inverted head shape, with obvious technical bearish signals. From the perspective of form, gold is expected to continue to rebound high and high next week. Focus on the support of this week's low point of 3296. Once it falls below, it is possible to further explore the 3270-3260 area. However, if this position remains stable and unbroken, the market still has room for rebound and repair. From a specific technical perspective, the obstructed decline of the 3375 line on Friday is more critical, with the lowest intraday drop to 3307, and the bearish momentum is still strong. It is recommended to be prudent in operation and do not blindly chase orders. 🔸Operation ideas for gold next week: 1️⃣ If it rebounds to 3320-3325, you can try to arrange short orders. If it rebounds further to 3338-3345, it is recommended to cover short positions. 2️⃣ The first target is the 3295-3306 area. If it effectively falls below, continue to hold and look for a lower position. 3️⃣ The support below is focused on the 3295-3285 area, and the pressure above is still mainly 3335-3345. The market is mainly oscillating in the middle of the range. It is recommended to watch more and act less, and wait for key point signals before intervening. If you are currently having trouble with gold operations, welcome to communicate with me. I will update the strategy as soon as possible according to the intraday market and try my best to make your investment less detours.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel5
$EUINTR - Interest Rates Cut (June/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR (June/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB cut key interest rates by 25 bps at its June meeting, based on updated inflation and economic forecasts. Inflation is near the 2% target, with projections showing 2.0% in 2025 (vs 2.3% previously), 1.6% in 2026 (vs 1.9% previously), and 2.0% in 2027. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is seen at 2.4% in 2025, then easing to 1.9% in 2026–2027. GDP growth is forecast at 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 (vs 1.2% previously), and 1.3% in 2027, supported by higher real incomes, strong labour markets, and rising government investment, despite trade policy uncertainties weighing on exports and business investment. Scenario analysis shows trade tensions could reduce growth and inflation, while resolution could boost both. Wage growth is still high but slowing, and corporate profits are helping absorb cost pressures. President Lagarde said that the central bank is approaching the end of a cycle, suggesting a pause may be on the horizon following today’s reduction.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
SILVERRelationship Between Silver, 10-Year Bond Yield, and DXY (US Dollar Index) as of June 2025 1. Silver Price: Silver has surged past $35 per ounce, approaching $36, marking a 13-year high and a strong rally driven by supply deficits and robust industrial demand, especially from electronics, solar panels, and renewable energy sectors. US 10-Year Treasury Yield: The 10-year yield recently rose to around 4.50% to 4.55% (June 6, 2025), up about 12 basis points over a couple of days, reflecting inflation concerns and fiscal uncertainties. US Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY has strengthened amid hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven flows, generally exerting downward pressure on commodities priced in USD, including silver. 2. Correlation and Dynamics Inverse Correlation with Real Yields: Silver prices exhibit a strong negative correlation with real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). As real yields rise, silver tends to fall due to higher opportunity costs of holding non-yielding assets. Impact of Rising 10-Year Yields: The recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield typically pressures silver prices lower. However, silver’s strong industrial demand and supply deficits have offset this effect, supporting prices despite higher yields. DXY Influence: A stronger dollar (higher DXY) makes silver more expensive in other currencies, usually suppressing demand and prices. Yet, silver’s recent rally suggests that supply constraints and investor interest are outweighing the dollar’s negative impact. 3. Fundamental Drivers Behind Silver’s Rally Supply Deficits: Silver mine production has declined since 2022, while industrial demand, especially for green technologies, continues to grow, creating persistent deficits. Reduced Recycling: Despite higher prices, recycled silver supply has diminished, indicating limited above-ground stocks. Safe-Haven and Inflation Hedge Demand: Economic uncertainties, rising government debt, and geopolitical tensions have increased investor interest in silver as a store of value alongside gold. Gold-to-Silver Ratio: The ratio remains elevated (~75:1), suggesting silver is undervalued relative to gold and has room to outperform. 4. Technical Outlook Silver’s breakout above $35 is a key technical milestone, triggering momentum buying and algorithmic trading. Overbought conditions suggest possible short-term profit-taking or consolidation near Support levels Conclusion Despite rising US 10-year Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, silver prices have surged due to persistent supply deficits, strong industrial demand, and safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainties. The usual inverse relationship between silver and bond yields/DXY is currently moderated by fundamental supply-demand imbalances and technical momentum. However, silver remains sensitive to real interest rate movements and dollar strength, which could cap gains or trigger corrections in the near term. #SILVER #DOLLAR
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD Gold, 10-Year Bond Yield, DXY, and Interest Rate Differential 1.Gold is trading around $3,310 after dipping into 3307 per ounce on NFP data report as of close of friday market in june 2025. The price remains elevated compared to historical levels, supported by inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and strong central bank demand. 2. Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield The US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.5%, recently rising amid inflation worries and fiscal uncertainties.the boost from NFP took 10 year yield from 4.3% to 4.58% close of Friday . Gold has an inverse relationship with real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations). Rising nominal yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, generally pressuring gold prices lower. However, if inflation expectations remain elevated, gold can still hold value as an inflation hedge despite rising nominal yields. 3. Relationship with DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold and the DXY share a strong negative correlation because gold is priced in USD. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and pushing prices down. Recent dollar strength on demand floor has weighed on gold, but persistent inflation, geopolitical tension ,political instability and safe-haven demand have limited gold’s downside. 4. Interest Rate Differential Impact The interest rate differential between the US and other major economies affects capital flows and currency valuations, indirectly influencing gold. Higher US rates relative to other countries tend to strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold. Conversely, narrowing differentials or expectations of Fed rate cuts can weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Gold prices remain in a higher trading range ($3,000–$3,500) supported by inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. Near-term pressure may come from rising bond yields and a strong dollar. Critical looks on over bought market would need a correction to set up a new buy rally. The upcoming U.S. inflation data release on June 11, 2025 and Fed policy signals will be crucial in determining gold’s direction. Core CPI m/m forecast: 0.3% (previous 0.2%) CPI m/m forecast: 0.2% (previous 0.2%) CPI y/y forecast: 2.5% (previous 2.3%) How the Federal Reserve is likely to react if actual figures exceed forecasts: (1)Monetary Policy Stance The Fed’s May 2025 minutes emphasize a data-dependent approach, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% while carefully assessing incoming data and risks to inflation and employment. If inflation prints come in higher than expected, especially core CPI and y/y CPI, it would signal persistent inflation pressures, potentially delaying or reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. (2)Possible Fed Response The Fed may adopt a more cautious or hawkish tone in its June 17–18 meeting, signaling readiness to keep rates elevated longer or even consider further tightening if inflation remains sticky. Policymakers could emphasize the need for “greater confidence” that inflation is on a sustainable downward path before easing monetary policy. Market expectations for rate cuts later in 2025 could be pushed back or diminished, supporting higher bond yields and a stronger dollar. (3)Market Implications A stronger-than-forecast CPI print would likely boost the US dollar (DXY) as markets price in a prolonged high-rate environment. Treasury yields, especially the 10-year yield, may rise reflecting increased inflation risk and delayed easing. Conversely, gold and other inflation-sensitive assets may face selling pressure due to higher real yields and dollar strength. Conclusion Gold’s price dynamics in June 2025 are shaped by a tug-of-war between rising US 10 year Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, which weigh on gold, and inflation concerns plus safe-haven demand, which support it. The interest rate differential reinforces dollar strength, typically bearish for gold, but ongoing macro uncertainties keep gold elevated as a strategic asset and store of value. #gold #dollar
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
Nato and EU meetings could lift EUR/USD further Despite believing the euro is currently overvalued, Bank of America prefers it to the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Bank of America thinks the EUR could be supported leading up to the NATO and EU summits (June 24-27) especially if defense spending is confirmed. German infrastructure spending might also be expected to support the euro. The EUR/USD holds above the 20- and 50-period EMAs at 1.1380–1.1360 and is comfortably above the 200-period EMA. The recent pull-back from 1.14930 has eased momentum slightly. A close above 1.1420 could target 1.1470, then 1.1520. A sustained break below 1.1280 could neutralise the bullish bias.
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold | Long Bias | VWAP Zone | (June 8, 2025)Gold | Long Bias | SPX & Silver Ratio Support + VWAP Zone | (June 8, 2025) 1️⃣ Insight Summary: Gold is holding strong at a key value area high while the gold/SPX and silver/gold ratios suggest we're entering a new phase of consolidation before the next leg up. Despite some calling for downside, the technicals point toward accumulation and a potential breakout. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry Zone: Current VWAP + value area high support zone (around $3,235) Stop Loss: Slightly below the VWAP consolidation range TP1: $3,316 TP2: $3,400 (final target for this wave) 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Support Zone: We’re bouncing off a strong area of confluence — VWAP + value area high. This has held well and suggests accumulation rather than distribution. 📊 Gold/SPX Ratio: Shows gold is holding or gaining relative to equities — signaling investors are hedging risk and positioning for possible volatility or correction in SPX. ⚖️ Silver/Gold Ratio: Points to silver undervaluation — and historically, when this ratio tightens, silver often outperforms in the later phases of a gold rally. 📉 Expectations: A slight dip or fakeout to trap shorts is still possible before continuation. Watch closely for how price behaves during this potential flush. 💡 Alternative Play: You mentioned it — silver could be the better value buy in this scenario. Same macro thesis, but higher upside % if the ratio rebalances. 4️⃣ Follow-Up: Monitoring for confirmation of support at VWAP and watching both ratio charts. If silver continues to strengthen relative to gold, I may scale more into silver positions over gold. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Risk_Adj_Return
LONG | AVGO (Broadcom) | 1DScenario 1 – Pullback to Structure Zone Entry: $211.01 Stop Loss: $198.33 Target: $259.05 Risk:Reward: ~1:3 Structure: Pullback to key fib level (~38.2%) and prior breakout base. Market Logic: Reclaiming structure post pullback; trend resumption with minimal drawdown. Scenario 2 – Deep Demand Zone Entry: $187.68 Stop Loss: $162.10 Target: $263.77 Risk:Reward: ~1:3 Structure: 61.8% fib + institutional demand cluster; "if market breaks deep", re-entry possible here. Market Logic: Value-buy zone; often unfilled unless broad market correction. Ideal for swing/position trader allocations. _______________________________ Business Model & Sector Positioning Core Focus: Broadcom designs and develops semiconductors and infrastructure software solutions. Their chips power AI data centers, 5G infrastructure and cloud networking—key growth pillars. AI Exposure: AVGO provides custom silicon to hyperscalers like Google and Meta. Its next-gen networking and AI accelerator chips are integral to expanding AI workloads, which fuels earnings upside. Earnings & Financial Momentum Recent Results (Q2 FY25): Revenue up ~43% YoY, beating consensus. EPS surged ~50% YoY, driven by data center demand. AI-related revenues now make up nearly 25% of total sales. Guidance Raised: Management upgraded full-year revenue targets—signaling internal confidence. Analyst Consensus & Institutional Flow Buy Ratings: >85% of analysts rate AVGO a Buy. Price Targets: Median PTs have moved from $260 to $285 post-earnings. Ownership: High institutional interest—Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street are among top holders. Dividends: Pays a sustainable dividend (~1.8% yield), increasing yearly—strong signal of financial health. Macro Environment Interest Rate Outlook: With the Fed expected to cut by late 2025, tech stocks are well-positioned. Lower yields boost growth stock valuations like AVGO. Capex Trends: Global cloud providers are increasing AI data center spending—Broadcom is a primary beneficiary. ___________________________ Conclusion Why The Setups Work Fundamentally: $211.01 Entry: Technical pullback + fundamental tailwind from raised guidance. $187.68 Entry: Deep value zone backed by secular demand + institutional conviction in AI. Both zones represent opportunistic entries into one of the most fundamentally sound AI infrastructure plays, with upside tied to macro tech trends, strong earnings, and durable cash flow.
NASDAQ:AVGOLong
by per5onanongrata
XAUUSD Expecting Selling movementCurrent Price Action Current price $3,357 The chart shows a recent bullish move that has broken above a previous consolidation zone around $3,333 $3,340 Resistance Zone Red Box Upper resistance area projected around $3,380 This is the anticipated reversal zone where the price may face selling pressure and potentially begin a downward movement Projected Price Path Yellow Arrows The analysis forecasts a continued short-term bullish move toward the red resistance zone After hitting this resistance the price is expected to reverse and begin a bearish correction Support Zone & Target Area First Support Level: Around $3,333 identified as a key structure or supply-demand level Final Target: Around $3,315. marked in purple as the main bearish target post-reversal This zone is highlighted in blue and represents a key demand area where a potential bounce may occur Conclusion The setup appears to anticipate a sell opportunity near the $3,380 resistance targeting a decline to the $3,315 zone This type of analysis is often used for short-term trading setups, possibly scalping or trades
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLD_FORCAST_PROVIDER
BTC next move BTC/USD – 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a well-defined downward parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. The price action continues to respect both the resistance and support zones of this channel. At present, BTC is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, which serves as a key resistance level. If the resistance holds, a rejection is expected from this zone, potentially leading to a significant downward move. Traders should monitor this area closely for confirmation signals before entering short positions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Anna_Wade
1
In the new week, is gold brewing a new market?Information summary: This week, the market continued to be affected by Trump's tariff policy and the progress of negotiations. On Thursday, the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state boosted market sentiment. In the early stage, the precious metals market ushered in a collective rise, and the prices of silver and gold performed strongly. Silver rose to a 13-year high on Thursday, breaking through $36 for the first time since February 2012. After gold hit the $3,400 mark during trading on Thursday, the US dollar rose as friendly talks between China and the United States stimulated the rise of the US dollar; gold fell rapidly and gave up all the gains during the day. On Friday, the US stock market closed at its highest level since February due to the boost of non-agricultural data. Gold continued its retreat trend again, closing at around 3,310 as of Friday. Market analysis: From the trend of the US dollar, there is already an opportunity to bottom out, and the trend at the beginning of the week is critical. Once the US dollar stands above 99.5 at the beginning of the week, it will continue to touch the 100.0--100.2 mark. If it stabilizes above this position, gold will most likely fall below 3300 next week. First, from the weekly chart: The current moving average support below the weekly line is almost at 3250-3260. If it can hold here, gold may continue to maintain consolidation and wait for an opportunity to choose a new trend. However, if it falls below 3250, it can fall to the 3200 mark. If 3200 falls below again, it will be the low point of 3100. It can also be seen from the daily chart that the important position of gold is at 3318-3280. If it stands above 3318, gold is in a bullish upward trend. If it falls below 3280, gold will enter a bearish trend. At present, gold has closed below 3318, so from the daily line, the next target is around 3280. If 3280 falls below again, then as the weekly analysis shows, it will test 3250-3260. However, judging from the daily chart, I think the market will not go down too easily. Therefore, I guess that gold may follow the head and shoulders top structure of the daily chart next week. It may fall to 3250-3260 at the beginning of the week to lure short sellers into the market, and then stretch and rebound to around 3350 to form a shoulder position. Finally, it will directly dive down to around 3150. The Asian market is about to open, and I hope my analysis can help everyone make some profits in the market. A new week is about to begin, and I wish you all good luck.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
Bullish - StandardAero (SARO)📈 Why I’ve started building a position in StandardAero (SARO) Some of you have been asking what I’m buying next for my long-term portfolio, so here’s one I’m quietly excited about. I’ve started accumulating SARO, a relatively new listing (IPO’d Oct 2024) that specialises in aircraft engine and airframe maintenance — known as MRO (maintenance, repair & overhaul). These guys are one of the largest independent MRO providers in the world, with military, commercial, and business aviation clients. So why SARO? ▶️ First: They’re starting to win serious defence contracts. They’ve recently secured: A $315M U.S. Navy engine contract (E-2D Hawkeye) An $80M turbine engine contract for the U.S. surface fleet And they’re in line to build Black Hawk helicopters in the UK if the NMH programme goes ahead. That deal alone would create 600+ jobs in Gosport. ▶️ Second: They’re small, but not unknown. At a $10B market cap, SARO is still tiny compared to defence giants like BAE ($78B). But big money is already circling. The reason I found this opportunity in the first place, is due to monitoring closely 'Theleme Partners' (a hedge fund co-founded by Rishi Sunak before politics) - they just opened a position. So did T. Rowe Price, Two Sigma, and Vanguard. ▶️ Third: Macro tailwinds. UK and global defence spending is rising rapidly. The UK has pledged to hit 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with a fresh £15B aimed specifically at submarines and nuclear support. If SARO lands even one meaningful UK MoD contract, which is very possible through its UK-based Vector Aerospace arm... it could seriously pay off. 💡 How I’m playing it: This is a long-term hold for me personally and I’ll look at dollar-cost averaging into my position. Short-term, I’ve marked targets around $32, $35 and $38 for potential profit-taking zones for those trading shorter holds. Long-term, I’m holding a big chunk in case we see SARO grow into something much bigger. It’s not without risk: 🔴 High post-IPO debt 🔴 Execution risk on current contracts 🔴 ... and the gamble that they secure government defence work all need to be considered. But that’s part of the calculated upside here. I’m sharing this because I think SARO is an early-stage contender worth watching and one that fits well into a defence-heavy decade ahead. Curious to know if anyone else is looking at this one? #LongTermInvesting #DefenceStocks #SARO #MarketInsights #DCA #MRO #UKDefence #InvestingStrategy
NYSE:SAROLong
by VickyRelentless
Gold will still fall below 3,300 next week! 📣World Situation: Gold prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Friday, but are still expected to close with a gain of more than 1.30% as traders readjusted expectations for Fed policy easing after a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report. At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading at $3,322, down 0.84% ​​on a daily basis. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the labor market continued to show resilience, with the unemployment rate remaining stable from April. Meanwhile, Wall Street rebounded modestly from Thursday's losses despite increased political tensions between President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk after the House of Representatives approved a bill to raise the US debt ceiling. Next Wednesday: ① Data: API crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending June 6, US May unadjusted CPI annual rate, May seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, May seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, May unadjusted core CPI annual rate, pay attention to real-time data changes. Geopolitical risks and trade tensions have eased, and the call between Chinese and American leaders has released a signal of easing. Trump said that the trade negotiations have reached a "positive conclusion", weakening the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. 🔥 Technical side: Based on the resistance and support levels of gold prices on the 4-hour chart, NOVA sorted out the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $3347, $3400 Support: $3252, $3202
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Labaron
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 09 - Jun 13]OANDA:XAUUSD fell more than 1% on Friday (June 6) due to the unexpected US non-farm payrolls data for May. Spot gold closed at $3,309.84/oz, up 0.8% on the week. Although gold failed to break above the $3,400/oz resistance and may fluctuate in the $3,300-$3,400/oz range in the short term, the market's resilience and long-term uptrend remain solid. Meanwhile, silver and platinum outperformed, hitting 13-year and 3-year highs, respectively, on investment demand and expectations of supply shortages. Gold prices rose significantly on Monday last week and hovered at highs ahead of the release of non-farm payrolls data from Tuesday to Friday, reaching $3,403.48 an ounce on Thursday. The latest data showed that the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls in May, beating market expectations of 130,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% and wage growth beat expectations. This reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near future, pushing the US dollar and US bond yields higher and putting pressure on gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD received initial support above 3,300 USD/ounce, indicating that the market still has buying support, but the resistance level of 3,400 USD/ounce is difficult to overcome in the short term and 3,200 USD/ounce is the main support level, more detailed technical analysis will be sent to readers in the following part of the article. However, since the raw price points are still related to fundamental analysis, I personally think that the price declines can be seen as an opportunity for gold to hold at lower prices, the long-term uptrend is fundamentally unchanged and central bank gold buying and a weaker dollar will continue to support gold prices. Despite the rise in risk assets such as stocks, gold has shown resilience. Central bank demand for diversified reserves and market risk appetite will continue to support gold prices, underscoring its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Market Background and Outlook The labor market is slowing steadily and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to wait and see, with the likelihood of a near-term rate cut low. The May CPI data next Wednesday (June 11) will be in focus. If CPI rises, it will push the US Dollar higher and further depress gold prices. If CPI is weak, it could help push gold prices higher. Geopolitical and trade factors: Trump's call with Xi Jinping on Thursday did not bring any clear progress on trade. If the tariff news worsens, this could boost demand for gold as a safe haven. On the other hand, the outlook for the Middle East-US, Ukraine-Russia talks is also not getting any better, any negative signs on the geopolitical front next week will also boost gold prices to recover. Economic data and events next week Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Thursday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 📌Gold prices fell sharply on Friday as it retested the $3,371 target level, which is the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, but failed to break it. The bearish momentum took gold towards an area where there are several important supports such as the $3,300 price point and the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level with the 21-day EMA. Although gold has fallen, its current position still has enough conditions for bullish expectations in the near term. And in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, and in this case, 50 is considered the nearest momentum support. As long as gold remains in/above the price channel, its main long-term trend is still bullish, in the short term if gold remains above the base price of 3,300 USD, it still has an upside target at 3,371 USD followed by the base price of 3,400 USD. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3449 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3227 - 3229⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3223
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading