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Fundamental Analysis

Long on OIL amid Israel-Iran confilctFundamental trends: Israel-Iran conflict does not seem to end soon, Israel might target iranian facilities more Recent insights suggest US involvement which whould lead to oil price rising. Technical trends: Plot seems to develope an Elliot impulse wave with clear 1-3rd waves already built. This suggests the impulse wave must end with rising on 5th wave. Conclution Overall trends tell in favor of future oil prices rising. What do you think about the situation? Please, leave your comments
TVC:USOILLong
by SamuelHuntington
Geopolitics and Fed policies dominate the trend of gold prices 📌 Gold news On Monday, boosted by the risk aversion of the Iran-Israel war, the gold price hit a high of 3452, but the continuity was not strong, and a series of other adjustments appeared; let's briefly sort it out: 1: Adjustment: Adjustment is normal. If the market rises, if the risk aversion does not continue to exert force, then the gold price can only return to technical adjustments. Therefore, Monday's adjustment trend and the decline trend are normal! 2: Risk aversion trend: The risk aversion trend will not be reversed for the time being! Once the war starts, it will not end easily; unless the interests of both sides are not damaged, the two sides agree to a ceasefire, but at present, the hope and probability are relatively small, so the risk aversion trend is the mainstream of the current global market; 3: The direction of the Iran-Israel war is nothing more than a few possibilities: A: The war expands, the surrounding countries stand in line, and the US and Western imperialism join the battlefield; the war expands rapidly! At the same time, Iran is forced to block the Strait of Hormuz! This is a manifestation of escalating war; B: Both sides, as well as the forces behind them, have calculated their interests, reached an agreement, and agreed to end the war conflict; this mainly depends on Iran's attitude; is it "powerful and unyielding", continuing to oppose the United States and imperialism; or is it pro-American, completely changing its identity, or changing its identity to submit to Israel and the United States; To sum up: risk aversion eased slightly on Monday, but the overall global market is still risk-averse; technical adjustments are normal trends; but don't completely ignore the importance of risk aversion and risk aversion control because of technical adjustments; in addition, the subsequent results of the Middle East war are nothing more than the above two; what determines all this is the attitude of both sides; 📊Comment Analysis Although the gold price fell below 3400 and the short-term trend changed, the general direction still remains bullish. In the future, it is still expected to hit the high point of 3500, but it is necessary to wait patiently for the bottom to stabilize before choosing the opportunity to buy the bottom. The current market is changing rapidly, and investors should adhere to the principle of following the trend and flexibly adjust their trading strategies. 💰Strategy Package Short-term gold 3383-3393 long, stop loss 3372, target 3420-3440; Short-term gold 3420-3430 short, stop loss 3435, target 3390-3370; ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RupertNoel
1
BTC 4H: Triangle Breakout - Next Leg Up?Bitcoin (BTC/USD): 4H Triangle Breakout Signals Bullish Continuation Hello TradingView, On the 4-Hour (4H) timeframe, Bitcoin has convincingly completed a significant triangle consolidation pattern. This pattern, which typically signals a build-up of energy, has now resolved with a clear bullish breakout. The price action over the last few days has been coiling, and we're now seeing strong confirmation as BTC pushes decisively above the triangle's upper trendline, ideally supported by robust volume. This indicates that the recent period of indecision has ended, and bulls are regaining control, setting the stage for the next upward move. Crucial Invalidation Point: For this bullish setup to remain valid, Bitcoin must firmly hold above $102,664.54. A sustained close below this level on the 4H chart would invalidate our thesis and suggest that a deeper correction or re-evaluation is needed. Outlook: With the breakout confirmed, we anticipate a push towards immediate resistance levels and potentially a retest of recent higher price points. Always manage your risk, and happy trading! ⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For educational and informational purposes only. Do your own research (DYOR). Trading involves substantial risk; you can lose money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by exprwebdev
NZDUSD → Correction and liquidity capture ahead of growthFX:NZDUSD , following a sharp decline during the Pacific-Asian session, is testing the support of the upward trend and the liquidity zone... The dollar is correcting amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. This is a temporary move, and the market may return to its main trend. The currency pair is forming a false breakdown of support Against the backdrop of an uptrend and a weak dollar, the currency pair is testing support at 0.6000. The reaction is weak at the moment, but there is a chance for growth if the price consolidates above 0.6020. I do not rule out a retest of the liquidity zone at 0.5989 before growth Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5989 Resistance levels: 0.6068 The inability to continue falling and the formation of a local reversal structure relative to 0.6000 (price consolidation above 0.6020) may support the market. I do not rule out that the market may decline to the liquidity zone of 0.5989 before rising. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
7
XAUUSD Expecting Selling movementPrice Level & Trend Current price $3380 The market has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a bearish trend continuation A yellow zigzag line projects a possible downward price movement path Resistance Zone A red rectangular zone marks a strong resistance area, previously tested multiple times and rejected Price failed to break above this zone, reinforcing the bearish outlook Support & Target Levels Three significant horizontal support levels are marked Level 1 $3,368 Level 2 $3,356 Final Target Zone Around $3344 $3344 The final target is emphasized with an orange Target label and arrow, indicating the expected destination for this bearish move Projection The chart anticipates short-term pullbacks retracements followed by further downside This is visualized through the yellow zigzag pattern illustrating probable future price action
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLD_FORCAST_PROVIDER
XAUUSD 16 June – Liquidity Trap or Smart Money Rotation? XAUUSD 16 June – Liquidity Trap or Smart Money Rotation? Gold surprised many traders with a sharp spike during the Asian session, only to reverse aggressively hours later. While headlines screamed “war” and panic, the price behavior told a different story—one of strategic distribution and smart money rotation... 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Context Geopolitical triggers: Rising tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran) and political assassinations triggered emotional buying across safe-haven assets like gold and oil. Institutional rotation: Major funds appear to be offloading gold positions to rebalance into equities (in correction) and oil (strong upside potential). Market narrative: News-induced FOMO drives retail into overbought zones, allowing larger players to exit at premium prices. 📈 Technical Overview (M30 Structure) Price Action: Gold tapped into major resistance at 3456–3458, showing an aggressive rejection shortly after. EMA Behavior: EMAs (13/34/89/200) are flattening across M15 and M30—early signs of a possible bearish crossover. Volume Drop: Declining volume after the spike suggests buyer exhaustion, reinforcing the idea of a bull trap. Fair Value Gap (FVG): A visible liquidity void remains below the 3390 area. Price often returns to fill these zones. 🎯 Trading Plan for Today ✅ Scenario A: Buy from Demand Zone (Liquidity Fill) Entry: 3383 – 3385 Stop Loss: 3377 Targets: 3386 → 3390 → 3394 → 3398 → 3402 → 3406 → 3410+ 📌 Best executed during London or NY session if price shows absorption or reversal confirmation. ❌ Scenario B: Sell from Resistance Only on Clear Rejection Entry: 3456 – 3458 Stop Loss: 3462 Targets: 3452 → 3448 → 3444 → 3440 → 3435 → 3430 ⚠️ Only enter shorts if clear bearish engulfing or pin-bar setup forms near resistance zone. 🧠 Market Psychology Retail FOMO is being exploited by larger players to exit risk positions. Liquidity engineering is likely in play—smart money drives price up on headlines, then exits into buyer momentum. Equity & Oil rotation signals a shift in institutional preference short-term. 📌 Final Thoughts This isn’t a time to chase breakouts. Gold is entering a volatile re-accumulation phase where news is being weaponized to induce emotional trading. The real edge lies in waiting for price to come to your level and only executing with confirmation. 🎯 Zone to Watch: 3383 – 3385 📉 Avoid chasing moves 📊 Respect your SL & manage risk like a pro — 🧭 Stay patient. The next big move will reward those with discipline and timing.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Continue the rally, get ready for gold to return to 3443 ⭐️Gold News: Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, retreating from the gains in the early Asian trading hours, which had briefly pushed above $3,400. A slight rebound in the US dollar (USD) continued to put pressure on the precious metal, acting as a major resistance. However, the downside for gold seems limited due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will further cut interest rates in 2025. Meanwhile, the ongoing air conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fifth day, exacerbating concerns about further escalation in the region. This ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s two-day policy meeting, the outcome of which could affect the next move of non-yielding gold. ⭐️Technical analysis: Gold price gets liquidity from the support level below: 3385, 3373 completed, short-term downward trend breaks, gold price will soon return to above 3400. Set gold price: 🔥Sell gold area: 3443-3453 SL 3458 TP1: $3435 TP2: $3422 TP3: $3407 🔥Buy gold area: $3358-$3350 SL $3345 TP1: $3368 TP2: $3376 TP3: $3390
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RupertNoel
1
Is DFM a good buy? (Dubai)Why You Might Consider Buying Fundamental tailwinds -Dubai's economy is seeing strong growth, with GDP rising and non-oil sectors performing well. FDI inflows remain high, and tourism is growing (~16.8 m visitors in 2024). -Exchange revenue is benefiting from rising trading volumes, even as clearing fees decline. -It seems that each time DFM creates a new low, we get a nice pump from it, but this pump seems to get smaller each time it occurs. Why Caution Is Warranted Geopolitical volatility -Regional tensions (Middle East conflicts). Real estate pressure -Fitch warns Dubai property prices could fall by double digits later in 2025–26 due to oversupply (~210k new units). -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
DFM:DFMLong
by bossout10
1
The Calm Before the Storm: All Eyes on UK CPI & Central BanksGBPUSD 17/06 – The Calm Before the Storm: All Eyes on UK CPI & Central Banks The GBPUSD pair is coiling in a tight range near the mid-1.3500s as traders brace for two high-impact events: UK CPI data on Wednesday and interest rate decisions from both the Fed and BoE this week. Price remains supported above the 200 EMA and is compressing within a symmetrical triangle – typically a precursor to a major breakout. 📊 Macro & Fundamental Outlook 🔹 Federal Reserve (FOMC): Expected to hold rates steady, but growing anticipation of a dovish tilt toward September is weighing slightly on the USD. 🔹 Bank of England (BoE): Markets are pricing in deeper rate cuts following recent UK GDP weakness, pressuring the GBP in the short term. 🔹 Geopolitical Risks: Rising Middle East tensions are fuelling demand for USD as a safe haven, reinforcing its strength ahead of data events. 📝 Bottom Line: The CPI release could be the first trigger to shift GBPUSD’s current consolidation. A hot inflation print might push GBP higher; a miss could fuel further downside. 🔧 Technical Analysis (H1 Chart) Price is ranging between 1.3535 (support) and 1.3609 (resistance) EMAs 13/34 crossing below EMA 89 → signal of potential bearish continuation Uptrend line from 1.3467 is still intact and acting as dynamic support Break below 1.3559 may lead to a move toward 1.3495 and 1.3467 A confirmed breakout above 1.3609 opens the door to 1.3630+ 🎯 Trade Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy from Trendline Support Buy Zone: 1.3495 – 1.3467 Stop Loss: 1.3440 Targets: 1.3535 → 1.3559 → 1.3596 → 1.3630 🟢 Best setup if price prints a bullish engulfing or hammer candle on key support + UK CPI surprise. Scenario 2 – Sell on Resistance Rejection Sell Zone: 1.3609 – 1.3630 Stop Loss: 1.3660 Targets: 1.3590 → 1.3559 → 1.3535 → 1.3495 🔴 Only valid with strong rejection signals + softer UK data or hawkish Fed tone. 💡 Market Sentiment Retail traders are trapped in a waiting zone – expecting a breakout Institutions may push price into one direction pre-data to collect liquidity Risk appetite is fragile, and traders are cautious ahead of back-to-back central bank announcements 📌 Final Thoughts GBPUSD is preparing for volatility. Instead of chasing moves, let the market come to your key zones and react with discipline. The 1.3467–1.3495 support area could be crucial for the next directional move. Stay patient. Wait for confirmation. Respect your risk.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
Soybeans and Heat: Subtle Signals in a Volatile Market1. Introduction Soybeans aren't just a staple in livestock feed and global cuisine—they’re also a major commodity in futures markets, commanding serious attention from hedgers and speculators alike. With growing demand from China, unpredictable yields in South America, and increasing climatic instability, the behavior of soybean prices often reflects a deeper interplay of supply chain stress and environmental variability. Among the many weather variables, temperature remains one of the most closely watched. It’s no secret that extreme heat can harm crops. But what’s less obvious is this: Does high temperature truly move the soybean market in measurable ways? As we’ll explore, the answer is yes—but with a twist. Our deep dive into decades of data reveals a story of statistical significance, but not dramatic deviation. In other words, the signal is there, but you need to know where—and how—to look. 2. Soybeans and Climate Sensitivity The soybean plant’s sensitivity to heat is well documented. During its flowering and pod-setting stages, typically mid-to-late summer in the U.S., soybean yields are highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations. Excessive heat during these windows—particularly above 30ºC (86ºF)—can impair pod development, lower seed count, and accelerate moisture loss from the soil. The optimal range for soybean development tends to hover between 20ºC to 30ºC (68ºF to 86ºF). Within this window, the plant thrives—assuming adequate rainfall and no pest infestations. Go beyond it for long enough, and physiological stress builds up. This is precisely the kind of risk that traders price into futures markets, often preemptively based on forecasts. Yet, trader psychology is just as important as crop biology. Weather alerts—especially heatwaves—often drive speculative trading. The market may anticipate stress well before actual yield reports come out. This behavior is where we see the beginnings of correlation between temperature and market movement. 3. Quantifying Weather Impact on Soybean Futures To test how meaningful these heat-driven narratives are, we categorized weekly temperatures into three buckets: Low: Below the 25th percentile of weekly temperature readings Normal: Between the 25th and 75th percentile High: Above the 75th percentile We then calculated weekly returns of Soybean Futures (ZS) across these categories. The results? Despite the modest visual differences in distribution, the statistical analysis revealed a clear pattern: Returns during high-temperature weeks were significantly different from those during low-temperature weeks, with a p-value of 3.7e-11. This means the likelihood of such a difference occurring by chance is effectively zero. But here’s the catch—the difference in mean return was present, yes, but not huge. And visually, the boxplots showed overlapping quartiles. This disconnect between statistical and visual clarity is exactly what makes this insight subtle, yet valuable. 4. What the Data Really Tells Us At first glance, the boxplots comparing soybean futures returns across temperature categories don’t scream “market-moving force.” The medians of weekly returns during Low, Normal, and High temperature periods are closely clustered. The interquartile ranges (IQRs) overlap significantly. Outliers are present in every category. So why the statistical significance? It’s a matter of consistency across time. The soybean market doesn’t suddenly explode every time it gets hot—but across hundreds of data points, there’s a slightly more favorable distribution of returns during hotter weeks. It’s not dramatic, but it’s reliable enough to warrant strategic awareness. This is where experienced traders can sharpen their edge. If you’re already using technical analysis, seasonal patterns, or supply-demand forecasts, this weather-based nuance can serve as a quiet confirmation or subtle filter. 5. Why This Still Matters for Traders In markets like soybeans, where prices can respond to multiple fundamental factors—currency shifts, export numbers, oilseed competition—small weather patterns might seem like background noise. But when viewed statistically, these small effects can become the grain of edge that separates average positioning from smart exposure. For example: Volatility tends to rise during high-heat weeks, even when average return shifts are small. Institutional players may rebalance positions based on crop health assumptions before USDA reports arrive. Weather trading algos can push prices slightly more aggressively during risk-prone periods. In short, traders don’t need weather to predict price. But by knowing what weather has historically meant, they can adjust sizing, bias, or timing with greater precision. 6. Contract Specs: Standard vs. Micro Soybeans Accessing the soybean futures market doesn’t have to require big institutional capital. With the launch of Micro Soybean Futures (MZS), traders can participate at a more granular scale. Here are the current CME Group specs: 📌 Contract Specs for Soybean Futures (ZS): Symbol: ZS Contract size: 5,000 bushels Tick size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Initial margin: ~$2,100 (varies by broker and volatility) 📌 Micro Soybean Futures (MZS): Symbol: MZS Contract size: 500 bushels Tick size: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50 Initial margin: ~$210 The micro-sized contract allows traders to scale into positions, especially when exploring signals like weather impact. It also enables more nuanced strategies—such as partial hedges or volatility exposure—without the capital intensity of full-size contracts. 7. Conclusion: A Nuanced Edge for Weather-Aware Traders When it comes to soybeans and temperature, the story isn’t one of obvious crashes or dramatic spikes. It’s a story of consistent, statistically measurable edges that can quietly inform better trading behavior. Yes, the return differences may look small on a chart. But over time, in leveraged markets with seasonality and fundamental noise, even a few extra basis points in your favor—combined with smarter sizing and timing—can shift your performance curve meaningfully. Using tools like Micro Soybean Futures, and being aware of technical frameworks, traders can efficiently adapt to subtle but reliable signals like temperature-based volatility. And remember: this article is just one piece in a multi-part series exploring the intersection of weather and agricultural trading. The next piece might just provide the missing link to complete your edge. Stay tuned. 🌾📈 When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by traddictiv
Geopolitics (Iran/Israel), 6 relevant risk barometersGeopolitics is in the spotlight this week, along with the FED's monetary policy decision. Geopolitical news is covered by the general media, so there's no need here to repeat information that's accessible to everyone. We therefore propose to review our selection of stock market barometers which, in our opinion, best measure the intensity of geopolitical risk. 1) Oil and natural gas prices Naturally, oil price trends are the main barometer of the geopolitical risk of the current confrontation between Israel and Iran. Although Iran accounts for just 3% of the world's oil supply, the region itself represents 20%, and above all there is a risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's oil supply passes. Technical analysis of the oil price is therefore the primary tool for measuring the intensity of current geopolitical tensions. The price of oil recently returned to the former technical support of $65, but there is no major bullish technical signal as long as the price of US crude oil remains below resistance at $80. We must therefore keep a close eye on the $80 threshold for US oil. 2) The trend of the S&P 500 index, the benchmark of Western finance The equity market is the second barometer of geopolitical risk that we offer. The most important thing is to select the stock indices that best represent the perception of geopolitical tensions. We believe that the S&P 500 future contract does this job well, as it is the most widely traded stock market futures index in terms of volume by global high finance. A few days ago, we published a detailed graphical analysis of the S&P500 index, which you can consult by clicking on the image below. 3) Trends on the main stock markets in the Near and Middle East Equity markets in the Near and Middle East are excellent indicators of the current perception of geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. We suggest you take a look at the Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange (Tadawul), the region's largest in terms of market capitalization. Naturally, you should also follow the trend of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange's flagship index, the TA 35, as well as that of the Egyptian stock market. These markets have the advantage of being open on Sundays, and are often a good early indicator of trends in Asia and Europe for Monday morning. 4) The trend of the US dollar (DXY) on the foreign exchange market (Forex) and of gold on the commodities market On the floating foreign exchange market (FX), it is the US dollar that plays to the full its safe-haven aspect. In the event of geopolitical tensions spiraling out of control, it would make a strong bullish reversal. This week, however, the US dollar will be under the influence of the FED. So it's best to trust gold's trend as a barometer of geopolitical risk. Geopolitics is not necessarily the dominant fundamental factor, but rather the dynamics of interest rates and the US dollar. 5) The TRUFLATION trend If current geopolitical tensions were to become a major global shock, international trade would be disrupted, and transport difficulties would lead to a sharp rise in prices, particularly for raw materials and industrial goods. This potential price rise would then be rapidly reflected in TRUFLATION, the benchmark for real-time price dynamics in the USA. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 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NYMEX:CL1!
by Swissquote
Gold continues to fall. Will there be a lower point?Gold is still under pressure at the integer mark of 3400. During the US trading session, the lowest point reached around 3366. For the current trend, it fell below the short-term support area of ​​3375, so the market has the possibility of further downward movement to test the support of 3350. Today, Iran launched missiles again, but there was no threat to Israel at all, and all the missiles were intercepted. Under the current trend of further decline, the support position that needs to be paid attention to is 3350. At this position, you can try a long strategy, and the early support point of 3400 above has turned into an upward pressure point. Short-term operation strategy: Buy near 3350, stop loss 3340, profit range 3380-3390. Above, you need to pay attention to the important pressure level of 3390-3400. The market changes violently, and you can take profits at the right position. Avoid rapid changes in market conditions and losses.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid_1
Bitcoin Retests Broken Channel | Bounce to $110k?Bitcoin is currently retesting the broken downward channel. This selloff was a market shock reaction due to Israel's airstrikes on Iran. Price found support around $103k, at the daily timeframe 50SMA. The daily 50SMA also served as support in the previous drop to $100k last week. In the chart's red circle is likely where many long leveraged positions had their stop losses or liquidation levels. We can safely assume this event was a liquidity hunt as Bitcoin remains strong above $100k. A healthy pullback to retest. Historically, we have seen similar market shock selloffs like this. One example is the 1st of October 2024 Iran strikes on Israel. Bitcoin crashed 5% from $63k to $60k. What followed after was a recovery to over $100k, never seeing $60k again. Will Bitcoin recover? We still have multiple bullish developments. Institutions are becoming increasingly interested in Bitcoin, the US Bitcoin reserve, SEC x Ripple case settlement, SOL ETF approval, Fed rate cuts, among others. Provided that the conflict does not escalate, once the market panic reaction is over, we can expect a healthy bullish continuation, as long as Bitcoin remains above $100k. We also have a massive pool of short liquidity above $111k. Once we break above this level it will be a short-squeeze to $120k.
Long
by gunhy
1
Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound?USDCAD 17/06 – Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound? After a significant drop to the 1.355x area, USD/CAD is showing early signs of recovery. However, the pair remains influenced by strong macro headwinds—particularly oil prices and Canadian monetary policy signals. 🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview WTI crude oil is rising due to ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, which increase the risk of global supply disruptions. This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a commodity-linked currency. Canada’s 10-year bond yields have reached their highest levels in 5 months (~3.4%), reinforcing expectations that the BoC may remain hawkish in the near term. USD weakens slightly as traders await more clarity from the Federal Reserve about the next rate cut timeline, potentially in Q3. 📊 Technical Analysis (M30 Chart) Price is printing higher lows above the key trendline. EMAs 13–34–89 are tightening → sign of sideways pressure before breakout. Short-term bullish channel still intact. Key resistance zones: 1.3581 and 1.3605. 🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios 📈 Long Scenario Entry: 1.3556 – 1.3560 (trendline bounce) Stop Loss: 1.3535 Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3605 ✅ Wait for M30/H1 confirmation like bullish engulfing or price-action breakout. 📉 Short Scenario Entry: 1.3605 (if price rejects resistance) Stop Loss: 1.3630 Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3556 ⚠️ Trigger only on bearish rejection with strong candle and volume at resistance. 📌 Strategic Outlook USD/CAD is caught in a tug-of-war: stronger Canadian fundamentals (oil + yields) vs. cautious USD movement post-FOMC. If oil prices and Canadian yields continue to climb, CAD may remain in favor. However, short-term technical rebounds toward 1.3600 remain valid if price structure holds.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
WTI above $75 on fears of US involvement in Israel-Iran conflictThe Israel-Iran situation is quite different this time and with Trump announcing that *we* now have full control over Iranian skies, suggesting the US is entering the fray – hardly a surprise to be honest - this is not going to end well. The conflict may get far worse in the short-term, and this will send shockwaves through the oil markets – especially if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hurmuz. Oil prices could easily spike to $100 and higher in the worst-case scenario. So, the situation is quite serious, unfortunately. Let's hope that it quickly de-escalates and lives are not lost. But make no mistake, this could get really big - especially with headlines like these coming out in the last few minutes: *US OFFICIALS SAY TRUMP 'SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING' STRIKE ON IRAN: AXIOS; *TRUMP TO MAKE POLICY DECISION ON ISRAEL-IRAN: AXIOS *IRAN WILL SOON LAUNCH 'PUNITIVE' OPERATION AGAINST ISRAEL: IRNA The picture is looking quite grim, unfortunately. by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Gold hovers at high levels as the market awaits FOMCOn Tuesday (June 17), spot gold once reached above $3,400 during the Asian session, then fell slightly during the European session, and maintained a high-level volatile trend during the session. Earlier on Monday, gold recorded its largest single-day drop in a month (1.4%). After the sudden outbreak in the Middle East and US President Trump's warning to Tehran, the market's risk aversion demand heated up again, pushing gold prices to rebound in the Asian session. The two-day interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve has also become a top priority for the market. Fundamentals Tensions in the Middle East have heated up again. According to Reuters, Israel's air strikes on Iran's state-run TV station, Iran's threats to launch the most violent missile attack in history, and the fire of three oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have caused market concerns about the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. US President Trump left the G7 summit early and convened a national security meeting, which increased market risk aversion. At the same time, ETF holdings increased significantly. Data showed that ETFs increased their holdings of gold by 136,000 ounces on the previous trading day, and the net purchase volume has reached 6 million ounces this year, reflecting that funds still have strong confidence in the future of gold. SPDR Gold ETF even recorded a single-day net inflow of $285 million last Friday, the largest in weeks. In terms of the US macroeconomics, the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but the focus is on Powell's speech and changes in the dot plot. As expectations of further rate cuts in 2025 heat up, the US dollar is still under pressure close to a three-year low, and analysts believe that this will form a structural support for gold in the medium term. Technical aspects: The gold daily candlestick chart shows that the current trend is in a typical "rising wedge" pattern. Prices have been steadily rising along an upward trend line this year, while the upper side is suppressed by strong resistance in the 3450-3500 area. The current market is in a wait-and-see state. There are obvious signs of Bollinger Bands closing, with the upper Bollinger track at $3440.63, the middle Bollinger track at $3317.51, and the lower track has moved up to around $3194.38, reflecting that the market is brewing a breakthrough. The current price is basically running between the upper and middle Bollinger tracks, indicating that it is still in a bullish structure, but once it falls below the middle Bollinger track or the lower edge of the wedge (about $3,330), it may trigger accelerated downside risks. The RSI indicator remains at 55.79, neutral to strong, and has not entered the overbought area. Comprehensively judged, the analysis believes that the short-term trend is in consolidation, and be alert to the risk of technical reversal. If the support of $3,330 is lost, further downside space will be opened; on the upside, it needs to break through the pressure range of $3,450 before trying the previous high of $3,499.83. Market sentiment observation The current gold market sentiment is in a "highly sensitive" stage. On the one hand, risk aversion once pushed gold to rebound rapidly, reflecting that the market has a very high pricing sensitivity to geopolitical risks; on the other hand, traders are still uncertain about the outlook for the Fed's policy, and the expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged has been fully priced in, but there are large differences in the future path of interest rate cuts. The weak rebound of the US dollar shows that the market does not fully agree with the logic of "hawkish stability maintenance". This contradictory sentiment has caused gold to fluctuate at a high level and has not yet formed a trend breakthrough. The continued increase in ETF holdings provides substantial buying support for gold, which constitutes the optimistic support of the "underlying logic". In addition, the market is still waiting for the FOMC meeting to release new signals. This "uncertain outlook" constitutes a typical "cautious optimism" market psychology. Traders are more likely to adopt a wait-and-see strategy, further amplifying the importance of technical signals. Outlook for the future Bullish outlook: Analysts believe that if the geopolitical situation continues to heat up or the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, gold is expected to break through the $3,450 resistance area and challenge the previous high of $3,499.83; by then, the momentum of ETF holdings and safe-haven inflows will jointly promote a new round of bullish market. Short-term outlook: Analysts believe that if the FOMC meeting results are hawkish or Powell sends a signal that he will not cut interest rates, coupled with the easing of risk aversion in the market, gold may fall back to the key support area of ​​$3,330. If it loses this position, it will form a trend reversal signal, with the target down to the lower Bollinger track of $3,194, or even lower. Overall, the analysis believes that gold is still running in an upward trend structure, but volatility is compressed, and the short-term direction needs to wait for clear signals from the Fed meeting. Traders are closely watching the changes in the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical situation, while being alert to the risks of "false breakthroughs" and sharp pullbacks. FX:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD PYTH:XAUUSD CMCMARKETS:GOLD
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by Charlie_Analyst