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Fundamental Analysis

Gold is weak. Will it continue to fall?Yesterday, the price of gold did not continue to rise as strong as in the previous two days. After reaching the previous top position, it began to retreat under pressure. The market is too bullish, and under this pattern, the market is likely to have an unexpected reversal. Yesterday, it fell below the 3400 integer mark, so it is likely to maintain a volatile downward trend in the future. The current main support level is around 3370, which is also the primary point for the bears to continue to break down in the future. Once it falls below this position, the target may be around 3345-3355. It cannot be said that it has completely turned to a bearish position at the moment. It is just a bearish oscillation pattern within a large range, and the upper pressure is maintained near 3405, which is also the support point for the first downward step of the bears on Wednesday. Today, we still need to operate around the short position first. The price rebounds to 3405 and shorts, and the profit range is around 3390-3380, and the stop loss is 3415. After a new low appears in the European session, wait for the US session to rebound and continue shorting.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
SOL CRUSHING-bearish risks developing🔻 4-Hour Bearish Thesis 🔸 Price Action Clues SOL is currently stalling at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (~$198.18) of the full macro move — a classic profit-taking zone. Multiple upper wicks and indecisive candles at resistance indicate supply absorption and buyer exhaustion. After a steep rally, price is moving sideways in a rising wedge/flag, which is a bearish continuation pattern if broken downward. 🔸 Momentum + RSI RSI at 76 is extended and flattening — often a zone where short-term pullbacks begin. No confirmed bearish divergence yet, but momentum is weakening compared to earlier stages of the rally. 🔸 Volume Profile Volume on recent pushes is lower than during breakout, suggesting diminishing bullish conviction. Bearish if a breakdown below $194 occurs — that's the former breakout level and wedge support. 🧨 4H Breakdown Confirmation Break below $194 (key short-term support) → opens downside targets: 🔻 $186–$182 (prior breakout base) 🔻 $171 (0.382 Fib retracement zone) 🔻 Daily Bearish Thesis 🔸 Price Action + Key Zone Price is pressing against the neckline target ($198.18) of the inverse H&S pattern. Stalling under the red resistance line and 0.5 Fib. Recent candle closed with a small upper wick + reduced body size, hinting at hesitation after a parabolic run. 🔸 RSI Risk RSI is at 80.41 — very overbought on daily. While not immediately bearish on its own, this often precedes either: Sharp correction, or Prolonged consolidation 🔸 Fibonacci & Macro Resistance $198–$200 is a confluence zone of: 0.5 Fib retracement Previous structural resistance Measured target of inverse H&S pattern ALREADY HIT. This is not a great spot to initiate new longs — any weakness here invites a pullback. ⚠️ Invalidation of Bearish Thesis A strong daily close above $200–$204, ideally with expanding volume, would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum toward $219 (0.618 Fib). 🧠 Summary: Yes, there is a short-to-mid-term bearish risk developing on both 4h and daily: Overbought RSI Stalling at major Fib resistance Decreasing momentum Vulnerable if $194–$195 breaks Remember: this WILL MOST LIKELY BE A SHORT-SHORT pullback, not a confirmed trend reversal… yet. BUT I'VE INITIATED A STARTING POSITION! THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DrAnkin Smöökëē Whizkee. Edumacational Purpiz Only!
Short
by TheAlphaView
USD/JPY: A Bullish Thesis for Trend ContinuationThis analysis outlines a data-driven, bullish thesis for USD/JPY, identifying a strategic long entry within an established market trend. The setup is supported by a combination of fundamental catalysts and a clear technical structure. 📰 The Fundamental Picture The primary driver for this trade will be the high-impact US economic data scheduled for release. This release is expected to inject significant volatility into the market. Fundamentally, this trade is a play on the deep policy differences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While the Fed's future steps are a topic of debate, the Bank of Japan's policy remains one of the most accommodative in the world, creating a long-term headwind for the Japanese Yen. This dynamic provides a strong fundamental basis for relative US Dollar strength against the Yen. 📊 The Technical Structure Chart analysis reveals that USD/JPY is in a confirmed and healthy uptrend. The current price action indicates a constructive pullback, presenting a strategic opportunity to join the dominant trend at a favorable price. The proposed entry point is positioned at a key technical level that offers a low-risk entry. Technical indicators support the continuation of the trend, suggesting that momentum remains with the bulls. ✅ The Trade Plan This trade is structured with a clear and favorable risk-to-reward profile, aiming to capitalize on the established trend. 👉 Entry: 146.343 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 145.233 🎯 Take Profit: 148.560 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
Altcoins are getting absolutely decimated relative to ETHWhile Ethereum has been on a massive run from its lows this year — pulling altcoins up with it — most alts are still lagging far behind. This chart clearly shows how poorly altcoins are performing against ETH, reinforcing why, at least for now, ETH remains the better hold. It also fits the classic money flow rotation: BTC → ETH → Large Caps → Small Caps — and right now, we're still in the ETH phase. Until we see strength return in these ETH pairs, chasing altcoins may just lead to more underperformance.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by SleeperPete
07/23/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: -1243 Sleep: 4 hours Overall health: having issues with sleep the last 2 nights VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 9:23 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 9:34 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 12:17 PM NQ X1 Sell Signal (triple sell) What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? After going on a long green streak, I got a bit greedy and wanted to make a big profit and went a bit risky dicky at the end of the session, having been able to read everything pretty well, I was pretty sure $6400 was going to be a pretty tight resistance between reading the gammabot data and options data, it showed that we would stall at $6400 on ES so i decided to put a few big ES short positions there with a tight stoploss at 6405 thinking, it surely can't go wrong with only a few minutes left in the session. and surely it did, it went completely wrong and i went from being positive for the day to negative and throwing my profits away. News *STOCKS SURGE AFTER US-JAPAN TRADE DEAL AS S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH FRESH RECORDS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6339= Bullish, Under 6320= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
11
EUR/JPY: Bullish Thesis on Policy DivergenceOur primary thesis is built on a powerful confluence of compelling fundamental drivers and a clear technical structure. We are taking a long position in EUR/JPY with high conviction, anticipating significant upside fueled by a stark monetary policy divergence confirmed by a constructive chart formation. 📰 Fundamental Analysis: The core of this trade is the widening policy gap between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). While the BoJ is only just beginning to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, the global environment points toward continued JPY weakness. The upcoming high-impact US news will act as a major catalyst. A "risk-on" reaction to the data would significantly weaken the JPY, providing a strong tailwind for this trade. 📊 Technical Analysis: The chart structure for EUR/JPY is decidedly bullish. The pair has established a clear uptrend, and recent price action indicates a period of healthy consolidation above key support levels. This presents a strategic entry point, as the market appears to be gathering momentum for the next leg higher. The current setup suggests a low-risk entry into a well-defined upward trend. 🧠 The Trade Plan: Based on this synthesis, we are executing a precise trade with a favorable risk profile. 👉 Entry: 172.422 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 171.292 🎯 Take Profit: 174.684 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
USD Weakness Ahead (3-Month Outlook)EUR/USD: Breaking 1.0850, next target 1.1000 GBP/USD: Cleared 1.2750, heading toward 1.2950 AUD/USD: Rebounded from 0.6650, potential 0.6850 NZD/USD: Above 0.6150, could reach 0.6300 Key Drivers: 1. Fed likely cutting rates before ECB/BoE/RBNZ 2. Commodity recovery (helps AUD/NZD) 3. Political risks weighing on USD Market Mood: - Traders reducing long USD positions - AUD/NZD shorts getting squeezed Risks: US inflation surprises upside Geopolitical shocks boost USD safe-haven demand Sasha Charkhchian
TVC:DXYShort
by Sashacharkhchi
EUR/GBP: Bullish Stance Above 0.8640This signal outlines a tactical long entry on EUR/GBP, positioning for a bullish resolution from today's major fundamental events. 📰 Fundamental Thesis This position is taken ahead of the two primary market movers: the ECB rate decision and the UK PMI data. The core thesis is that the ECB policy statement will be the dominant catalyst, providing strength to EUR that will outweigh the impact of the UK data release. 📊 Technical Thesis The trade is defined by a sound technical structure. The stop loss is anchored beneath the critical support zone at 0.8640. The profit target is set to challenge the resistance area just above 0.8722. This setup offers a favorable and clearly defined risk-to-reward profile. 🧠 Risk Management Execution is timed before extreme event-driven volatility. Adherence to the stop loss is critical to manage the inherent risk of this pre-news strategy. Trade Parameters ⬆️ Direction: Long (Buy) ➡️ Entry: 0.86690 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.86344 🎯 Target: 0.87382 ✅ Risk/Reward: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
1
HYPE Swing Long Opportunity - Altcoin Season📌 Fundamental Sentiment: The crypto market — alongside broader risk assets — continues to gain traction. This momentum is largely fueled by rising expectations of policy shifts in the U.S., with Trump intensifying pressure on Jerome Powell and advocating for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. 📌 Technical Analysis: HYPE is approaching a key HTF bullish trendline, and confluences are stacking up in the same region: ✅ HTF Demand Zone ✅ Equilibrium (EQ) of the HTF bullish trend ✅ Bullish Trendline Support These three HTF confluences overlapping at the same price zone indicate a high-probability setup for a significant bounce and a possible swing long opportunity. 📌 Gameplan: Price hits HTF bullish trendline HTF demand zone gets tested EQ level tapped → discount offered to buyers 📌 LTF Confirmation Criteria: I’ll wait for: A 1H swing break A strong 4H rejection candle These will confirm momentum shift. If confirmed, I’ll enter a swing long. 🎯 Target: $60 💰 Potential gain: ~+50% ❗ Stop-loss: Below the swing low that triggers the LTF confirmation — 🔔 Follow for daily setups and weekly macro recaps 💬 Drop your chart or questions below!
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
XAU/USD – Ranging Market Prepping for Breakout?Gold has been ranging for the next couple months and usually I am out of the market during the months of April Through July because historically these are not my best months trading XAU/USD. However you will see me posting a lot more in the coming months because my best months historically are August - December where the market really cranks up with some bigger moves. So in a summarized version below you will find what it is that i am looking at with gold. Gold (XAU/USD) has remained locked in a defined consolidation range between 3,250 (support) and 3,450–3,502 (resistance) since early April. Price has printed multiple internal falling wedge formations within this zone, indicating compression before potential expansion. 🔍 Technical Overview Range Duration: ~3.5 months Key Range: Support: 3,250 Resistance: 3,450–3,502 Compression Patterns: Multiple falling wedges breaking upwards inside the range, hinting at bullish pressure. Touch Confirmations: Both range boundaries have been tested multiple times, reinforcing validity (per Multi-Touch Confirmation). Contextual Bias: Seasonally, August–December tends to be a high-volatility trending period for Gold. 🎯 Trade Plan Inside Range: Maintain neutral bias. Execute range-to-range scalps/swing setups with clear invalidation zones. Avoid trading mid-range. Breakout Scenario (Bullish): A clean close above 3,502 triggers breakout watch. Ideal setup: Retest + 15-min flag → long continuation. Potential upside target: ~3,700 (range height extension). Breakdown Scenario (Bearish): Loss of 3,250 opens door to bearish continuation. Look for clean liquidity sweep or structure flip before committing. Initial downside target: 3,100 zone. 🛡️ Risk Notes Avoid third-touch entries in aggressive momentum unless followed by flag formation. Remain disciplined with the 80/20 confluence rule — don't let perfectionism delay entries. Always execute with pre-trade checklist and defined R:R profile. ✅ Summary Gold is at a pivotal point. The confluence of a tight multi-month range, internal compression patterns, historical breakout timing, and validated levels builds a compelling case for an imminent expansion move. Remain patient, avoid anticipation, and react to confirmed structure and price behavior.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333