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Fundamental Analysis

DXY: US dollar To Drop Further Around 95?The US dollar has been steadily declining since the new president was elected in the USA. This decline has been accompanied by the ongoing trade wars. Numerous economic indicators have supported this trend, and we anticipate further depreciation in the coming days or weeks. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own analysis and gain a comprehensive understanding of the market. We wish you the best of success in trading. Good luck and trade safely. Like and comment for more, and as always, happy trading! Team Setupsfx_
TVC:DXYShort
by Setupsfx_
4
EURUSD 16 June – Technical Rebound or Liquidity Trap? EURUSD 16 June – Technical Rebound or Liquidity Trap? The EURUSD pair has shown sharp movements after testing key resistance near 1.1607. While the price action may appear bullish at first glance, deeper analysis suggests we might be facing either a continuation of the uptrend or a strategic liquidity hunt. 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Overview The ECB remains hawkish with rates still high, but recent commentary hints at a more dovish tone possibly leading to rate cuts in late Q3 2025. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance, holding off on rate cuts due to sticky core inflation. This divergence in policy expectations creates a neutral to slightly USD-favorable bias, depending on upcoming economic data. ⏳ Bottom line: EURUSD remains in a choppy environment with compression–expansion cycles, and no confirmed macro-driven trend yet. 📉 Technical Outlook (H1 Chart) Price Structure: The pair is moving within a short-term ascending channel, but current price is testing the upper boundary. EMA Analysis (13/34/89/200): Still supports an uptrend, but flattening out — potential bearish crossover if price fails to hold. Key Resistance: 1.1607: Major resistance and local top (double rejection zone). Critical Support Zones: 1.15540: Minor structural support — a decisive level for intraday direction. 1.15261 & 1.14807: Unfilled FVG zones and liquidity pools that may get targeted if the price breaks lower. 🎯 Trade Setup Ideas 📘 Scenario A – BUY from 1.15540 support (bullish continuation) Entry: 1.15540 (upon bullish candle confirmation or strong bounce) Stop Loss: 1.15200 Take Profits: 1.15850 → 1.16070 → 1.16300+ ✅ Ideal if European sentiment remains positive or if USD weakens across the board. 📕 Scenario B – SELL if price breaks and retests 1.15540 Entry: 1.15540 (after a breakdown + rejection retest) Stop Loss: 1.15720 Take Profits: 1.15261 → 1.14807 → possibly 1.1450 ✅ Best used if USD gains strength or EUR shows weakness after economic releases. 🧠 Market Psychology The market is currently reactive to any shift in tone from ECB and Fed, causing price whipsaws near key zones. Smart traders will avoid chasing breakouts and instead focus on reaction zones like 1.15540 for confirmation-based trades. Watch for fakeouts, as institutional players may be hunting liquidity before choosing direction. 📌 Final Thoughts EURUSD is in a sensitive zone, and 1.15540 is the intraday pivot. Holding above could trigger a push toward 1.1607 and higher. But failure to hold would likely attract sellers toward the 1.1480–1.1450 liquidity range. 🎯 Discipline is key. Avoid emotional entries. Let the market come to your level — and execute only with confirmation.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
6/16/2025 3:33 AM PST - ChatGPTBTC/USD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – June 16, 2025 – 06:25 UTC-4 Exchange: Bitstamp | Current Price: $107,149 Trend: Short-term recovery from previous dump; nearing local resistance zone Market Context: Rebound after consolidation below $106K; price testing $107.3K ceiling 📈 Technical Indicator Summary 1. RSI (14) RSI: 67.40, close to overbought zone Signal line: 69.48 ➡️ Strong bullish momentum, but approaching exhaustion; potential pullback or consolidation soon 2. MACD (12,26,9) MACD line > Signal line — bullish crossover confirmed Histogram green and above 0, but flattening ➡️ Positive momentum remains, but bullish strength is fading 3. Volume Volume increasing during upswings, declining during sideways phases ➡️ Accumulation confirmed; buyers were stepping in under $106K 4. Structure / Key Levels 🔻 Support Zones: $106,600: Minor local support $105,775 – $105,341: Consolidation demand zone $105,000: Psychological & historical support 🔺 Resistance Zones: $107,149: Current price, testing key resistance $107,350 – $107,589: Major overhead barrier Breakout could target: $108,000+ 🎯 Trade Scenarios (Next 24 Hours) ✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Above $107,350 Conditions: RSI stays above 60 MACD remains bullish Price closes above $107,350 with volume spike Entry: 📈 Buy breakout above $107,350 🎯 TP1: $107,750 🎯 TP2: $108,400 🛑 SL: $106,750 (below most recent higher low) ❌ Scenario 2: Rejection and Pullback from Resistance Conditions: RSI breaks below 60 MACD begins to turn down (bearish crossover) Price fails to hold $107,149 and closes below $106,600 Entry: 📉 Sell on rejection from $107,350 + bearish divergence 🎯 TP1: $106,200 🎯 TP2: $105,800 🛑 SL: $107,550 📊 Probability Forecast (Next 24 Hours) Scenario Probability Rationale ✅ Bullish Breakout 70% - Clean higher low structure MACD + RSI strong Testing resistance repeatedly = buildup for breakout | | ❌ Pullback / Rejection | 30% | - RSI nearing overbought Resistance near $107.6–107.8K is heavy Possible fakeout if no volume follows | 🧠 Strategic Insight: Momentum favors bulls, but resistance is thick between $107.3K and $107.6K. Favor breakout entries on confirmation — not pre-break bets. Watch RSI/MACD divergences closely.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trader604
1
NZD/USD LongTechnical Analysis: Initial Structure Shift: The chart reveals a significant low in late May, followed by a decisive break of structure (BOS) above a prior high (near the first green dot). This confirms a bullish market transition, indicating strong buying pressure. Change of Character (CHOCH) Confirmation: The subsequent rally, marked by a sharp upward move, solidifies the change of character, with price sustaining above the BOS level. This reflects institutional intent to drive the market higher. Resistance Zone Identification: Price has now approached a critical resistance level near 0.6090 (dashed line), where it has tested equal highs multiple times. This zone represents a potential pivot point for supply to emerge. Momentum and Consolidation: The recent steep ascent, highlighted by the upward arrow, demonstrates robust momentum. However, the tightening of price action near resistance suggests a consolidation phase, offering a strategic entry opportunity. Given the overall bullish trend, await a pullback to the 0.6070 support level. Enter the trade only after a bullish candle close confirms acceptance. Adjust your position size according to your risk parameters, and consider trailing your stop if momentum persists beyond 0.6090. Be prepared to exit if price rejects at resistance, indicating a potential shift.
Long
by ProSignalai
1
Gold rebound continues to be short! (Exclusive trend analysis)Although gold has fallen below 3400, and the short-term direction has changed, the general direction remains unchanged and it is still bullish. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize before we can buy the bottom. When there is an opportunity to go long later, Charlie will tell you that in today's market, we can only follow the trend. We will do whatever the market does. We will go short first in the rebound in the next two days! FOREXCOM:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
Gold, continued to rise after a pullback 📌 Driving events Israel and Iran launched a new round of attacks on each other on Sunday (June 15), exacerbating market concerns that the escalation of the war could trigger a wider regional conflict, and gold continued to receive support from safe-haven buying. (The author believes that according to media reports, Iranian leaders have shown a tougher attitude, and Iran cannot be ruled out to give Israel a strong counterattack, so the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may escalate in the next few days, and gold as a safe-haven asset will shine even brighter. Kremlin: (On Putin's possible mediation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict) Russia is ready to intervene at any time if necessary. (The author hopes that the two countries will be reconciled as soon as possible) 📊Comment Analysis 1-hour chart: The rising channel breaks down, and short-term shorting is at 3442. 💰Strategy Package Today's US market plans to sell high and buy low in the 3408-3452 range. If the range breaks, follow the trend, strictly lighten the position and set a good stop loss. ⭐️ Note: I hope traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds I hope everyone will set rules, control emotions, and take a long-term view, and slowly get rid of the control of desire, be at ease in the trading market, find their own way to make money, and truly enjoy the fun and rewards brought by trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RupertNoel
Short positions fall as expected, long opportunities reappearToday, gold maintained high and fluctuated repeatedly after opening, but the upper side has not been effectively broken through. After repeated pressure, the resistance signal was confirmed. We arranged short orders near 3445. The market fell back as expected and accurately hit the target position. The trend was highly consistent with the prediction, which once again confirmed the trading concept of "planning before the market, execution before emotion". From the current trend structure, gold is still in a bullish trend as a whole, and short-term adjustments are normal. The support below focuses on the 3420-3415 area, which is the first defense position for short-term retracement; and the more critical bullish defense line is still at the 3405-3400 line. If this area stabilizes, it is still our core layout area for low-multiples with the trend. The daily structure is still intact, and the long arrangement of the moving average system has not been destroyed. Short-term fluctuations do not affect the overall bullish logic. Therefore, the operation is still based on retracement and main longs, and following the trend is the kingly way. Short orders can only be participated in the short term, and stop when you reach the point, and do not hold against the trend. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy at the bottom, and pay attention to it in time. The key next is to pay attention to the stabilization signals below and wait for the market to provide new opportunities for momentum release. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time. 🌐
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
The international situation is bad. Gold fell back.Information summary: Latest news: Israeli fighter jets "flew freely" over Tehran, and Iran lost air supremacy over the entire west. Israel's goal turned to a wider range of Iranian military and infrastructure. Iran's counterattack, Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities are being attacked by Iranian missiles. Both sides are currently suffering heavy losses. But the price of gold fell back at this time; I think the biggest reason is that this week, the global "super central bank week" is about to hit, the market will usher in a very critical Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and central banks such as Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom will also hold monetary policy meetings one after another, and investors are on high alert. Under the influence of multiple conditions, the price of gold has a technical correction. Technical analysis: From a technical point of view, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East did not directly push up prices, but instead rushed up and fell back, which shows that the market has great pressure on the upward trend. Therefore, for the upward trend, it is necessary to be relatively conservative. From the position point of view, the support below is around 3410. From a trading perspective, most traders are waiting for the release of some data, which will change the overall trend of gold. However, according to the latest analysis of 14 Wall Street analysts, 10 analysts expect prices to continue to rise. So I guess that this time the gold price pullback is accumulating energy for upward movement. At present, the price has started to rise after falling back to around 3410. The point of this pullback rebound is expected to stop around 3440, and then start to fluctuate at a high level. If the price breaks through 3440 strongly and stabilizes above this position, the price may hit the upward pressure level of 3455 again.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_1
This weeks #US30 outlook. High Probability Trade Zones A. Short Setup – Fade the Grind Into Resistance Zone: 42,900–43,200 (confluence of R1, previous highs, sell rejection zone). Trigger: Slow grind + bearish engulfing / break of structure on 15M–30M. Stop: Above 43,250 Target: 42,400 > 42,150 > 41,800 B. Long Setup – 4H Breaker Block Retest Zone: 42,050–42,200 (OB + support + 30M demand) Trigger: Sweep of 42,000, followed by bullish engulfing or displacement candle Stop: Below 41,770 Target: 42,600 > 42,900 > 43,193 C. High-Risk Fade Long – Deep Discount Sweep Zone: 41,750–41,800 (S1 proximity, previous accumulation base) Trigger: Wipeout + bullish PA on 15M with volume spike Stop: 41,670 Target: 42,200 > 42,500
EIGHTCAP:US30
by RANDYGLASS53
EUR/CAD Long Bias🚀 EUR/CAD – Strong Long Opportunity Based on Multi-Factor Confluence Over the past week, I conducted a comprehensive macro and sentiment-driven analysis across G10 FX pairs. Among several potential setups, EUR/CAD emerged as the most fundamentally and technically aligned long opportunity, supported by a confluence of high-probability signals across positioning, macro divergence, and capital flow sentiment. 🔍 Key Drivers Behind the EUR/CAD Long Bias: 1️⃣ Macroeconomic Divergence (ENDO View) 🇪🇺 Eurozone has shown relative stability in core macro indicators: Inflation continues to cool, providing flexibility for ECB rate guidance. GDP growth remains structurally flat but not contracting — suggesting resilience. 🇨🇦 Canada, on the other hand: Shows a deteriorating inflation-growth mix. Retail Sales and Industrial Production trends are softening. ENDO analysis flags CAD as one of the weakest among G10 currencies. 2️⃣ Positioning – COT Report & Z-Scores Speculative traders are increasing their long exposure to EUR (COT net longs rising +13,887 last week). Z-Score on EUR long positions: +1.33 → statistically elevated interest in long EUR exposure. CAD positioning is flat-to-negative, with no bullish buildup in speculative flows. This gives EUR a clear relative edge in terms of speculative conviction. 3️⃣ Score & EXO Sentiment Framework EUR/CAD is one of few pairs showing clear directional consensus across: ✅ EXO Score Sheet: Long Bias confirmed. ✅ RR_w Sheet: Strong risk/reward rating supports further upside. ✅ IR Forecast Sheet: ECB-CAD policy spread favors EUR strength in medium term. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment – Risk Regime We are currently in a “Risk-On” sentiment regime, which generally favors currencies like EUR over defensive, commodity-linked currencies like CAD. CAD tends to underperform in reflationary sentiment waves — especially when Oil fails to support the currency. 5️⃣ Cluster & Trend Confirmation While not a primary factor, cluster analysis shows that EUR/CAD is not in a weak trend regime. Trend alignment over 30 and 14 days remains favorable. 🔚 Conclusion: EUR/CAD is one of the few pairs this week that aligns across all analytical fronts: macro, positioning, sentiment, and structure. In a crowded FX environment, such confluence is rare and valuable.
Long
by Idealadvantage
The golden opportunity comes again.This week, gold showed a slow bullish upward pattern, rising repeatedly and circuitously, and finally closed positive on the weekly line. On Friday, it was blocked twice at the high level of 3445, and the closing price remained sideways. The market is expected to continue the upward trend next week. If it breaks through 3445, it is expected to further challenge the 3500 mark or even set a new high. Combined with the recent fundamentals and the continued warming of the geopolitical situation, it provides solid support for bulls. However, the current market shock sweep is still the main rhythm, and it is not advisable to blindly chase highs in operation. It is still recommended to focus on retracement and long positions. The key support of the daily line refers to the top and bottom conversion position of 3403 and the low point of 3419 on Friday. If it falls back to the above area, you can rely on the support to arrange long positions at the right time. The overall trend is still inclined to bulls, and short positions can only be tried with a light position. Remember that strict risk control is required against the trend. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy at the bottom, and pay attention to it in time. Operation suggestion: Gold is recommended to go long near 3405-3400, with the target looking at 3445 and 3465. If it is strong, rely on the support of 3420-3415 area and choose the opportunity to go long. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time. 🌐
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
Is this week a chance for gold to break through 3,500? ⭐️Gold Information: Gold prices surged for the third consecutive trading day on Friday as geopolitical tensions intensified after Israel launched a military strike on Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities and key leaders. The escalation of the situation triggered widespread risk aversion in global markets, stimulating demand for safe-haven assets. As of the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading at $3,431. Gold surged to a five-week high of $3,446 before giving up gains as traders took profits before the weekend. Geopolitical turmoil, coupled with dovish signals released by recent US inflation data, reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates later this year - despite improved consumer confidence. These factors together support the bullish momentum of gold. ⭐️Personal Comment: Continued military tensions next week are a big driving force for gold prices to continue to break through 3,500 . 🔥 Technical aspects: Based on the resistance and support levels of gold prices in the H4 framework, the following important key areas can be identified: Resistance: $3488, $3502, $3562 Support: $3382, $3342
TVC:GOLDLong
by RupertNoel
2
IONQ Swing Trade Alert – Bearish Setup Confirmed (June 15, 2025🐻 IONQ Swing Trade Alert – Bearish Setup Confirmed (June 15, 2025) 📉 Current Price: ~$37.84 📅 Expiry: June 27, 2025 | ⏱ Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Trade Type: Bearish Swing via Naked PUT 🔍 Market Context & Technical Picture All four AI models (Grok, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek) agree: IONQ is in a short-term bearish phase, supported by clear technical breakdowns across the 15-minute and daily charts. While weekly trends remain bullish, immediate price action points lower: 📉 Price < EMAs on M15 and Daily 📉 Bearish MACD and weak RSI (low 30s) 📊 Rising VIX (~20.82) supports market-wide caution 🧲 Max pain at $39.00 = upside gravity, but unlikely to reverse trend in short term 🔻 Support zones: $36.00 – $35.50 range ✅ Trade Setup 💼 Strategy: Naked PUT 🔻 Strike: $37.00 🎯 Entry Price: ~$2.09 (mid of bid/ask: $1.94 / $2.24) 📊 Target: $3.14 (+50%) 🛑 Stop: $1.46 (–30%) 📆 Expiry: June 27, 2025 📈 Confidence: 75% 📉 Why This Trade? ✔ Consensus bearish across models ✔ Strong downside momentum on intraday/daily charts ✔ Option has decent liquidity (243 OI) ✔ Strike sits just under current price with tight R:R control ✔ Sector weakness and volatility support continuation ⚠️ Key Risks 🪫 Short-term RSI is oversold → minor bounce possible 💥 A sharp reversal above $39.50 invalidates the bearish thesis 📉 Wide spreads or poor fills → enter carefully at open 🎢 Rapid volatility spikes may distort option pricing 💬 Traders—What’s your read on IONQ? Do you see it cracking $36 or rebounding from oversold? Comment below 👇 or join the QS community for daily AI-generated signals.
NYSE:IONQShort
by quantsignals
BTC/USDT Double Top Breakdown – Bearish Target in PlayBTC/USDT – 1H Chart Analysis (Binance) The chart shows a bearish setup based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and price action. Key Points: Rising Wedge: A bearish pattern formed earlier, indicating a weakening bullish move. Top 1 & Top 2: Double-top structure suggesting strong resistance around 106,000. CHoCH & BOS: Multiple Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) confirm the shift from bullish to bearish trend. Breakdown Zone: After forming Top 2, price broke below key structure zones. Target Zone: Marked in green and pink below 104,000, showing a bearish continuation toward 102,000 area. Strong Low: This zone is highlighted as the next major support where price could react.
Short
by forextrading110
1
Safe-Haven Demand Expected to Push Gold Prices Toward 3500Last week, intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran triggered a strong wave of risk-off sentiment in the markets. As a result, we saw sharp rallies across major safe-haven assets and crude oil. Over the weekend, tensions continued to escalate and even showed signs of further expansion. Under such circumstances, it's clear that heightened geopolitical risk will continue to support gold prices. However, 📍$3500 remains a major resistance zone at the moment. If gold spikes to this level intraday, it’s very likely we’ll see a short-term pullback — Whether due to profit-taking, cautious positioning by sideline capital, or selling pressure from trapped shorts above 3490, ⚠️ this kind of correction is a natural market reaction — driven by human nature. Even with strong risk-off demand in place, after a $200 rally, the market is still subject to volatility from profit-taking behaviors. 🔑 Trading Strategy for This Week As long as tensions in the Middle East persist, 🎯 the primary bias remains bullish. However, the entry point is crucial. 💡 Important notes: Avoid chasing price after sudden spikes caused by breaking news. Those spikes are not ideal buy zones — instead, look for short-term selling opportunities at those highs. Once the price pulls back, assess the retracement level and key supports before looking to buy the dip. We are now within a historically high price range, which means any rally could trigger profit-taking from earlier longs. While the overall trend may still head higher, ⚠️ you need to carefully evaluate the size of potential pullbacks and whether your account can withstand the associated risks. 📊 Technical Levels to Watch: Resistance: 3450-3455 (minor), 3468-3474 (previous high), and 3487-3499 (major historical high) Support: 3420–3410 zone, and the deeper 3400–3386 range Stay alert, trade wisely, and remember — in volatile geopolitical environments, timing and discipline are more important than ever.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
US retail sales data stands out | FX ResearchThe yen didn't move all that much but did manage to post a 4-day low against the buck after the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate as expected while planning to reduce bond purchases quarterly starting next fiscal year. BoJ Governor Ueda signaled potential rate hikes if economic and inflation forecasts held, but highlighted risks from U.S. tariffs, domestic food inflation, and weaker economic data expected in the second half of the year. In global markets, the U.S. dollar remained stable. EUR/USD softened despite a strong German ZEW survey, and oil prices were relatively contained considering Middle East tensions and a tanker collision off the UAE coast. U.S. stock futures are under a little pressure as Senate Republicans proposed tax cuts that could widen deficits, while upcoming U.S. retail sales data and ECB commentary on strengthening the euro’s global role have kept markets focused—also ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated Fed decision. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets