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Fundamental Analysis

Short position profit. Latest strategyYesterday's gold price fluctuated: it maintained sideways fluctuations in the morning and started a downward channel after the opening of the US market. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision remained unchanged. In addition, Powell's speech suppressed expectations of a September rate cut. The gold price directly fell to around 3267 and closed the day with a negative line, which exceeded expectations. Looking back at recent trends, gold prices saw a brief correction on Tuesday after four consecutive days of decline, but failed to sustain the upward trend, falling sharply again yesterday, demonstrating that the weak market remains intact. Judging from today's market, theoretically there is still room for further decline, but before yesterday's low is broken, we don't expect a big drop for the time being; if the support here is effective, the market may tend to correct. Pay attention to the daily resistance near 3315, and try shorting with a light position; the hourly resistance is near 3301, which is also a good position for shorting; the intraday bull-bear watershed is near 3294. If the market falls weakly and rebounds here, there may be a decline. The target below will first look at 3275. If yesterday's low of 3267 is broken, look further to 3250: On the long side, pay attention to the 3249 support below. If it is close to broken, you can try short-term buying. 【Operation ideas】👇 The bearish strategy in the morning remains unchanged. The short position at 3315 was publicly set up in the morning. The market rebounded to 3314 and then went down directly. The idea of setting up short positions at 3301 in the morning session remains unchanged. Friends who did not follow up with the short positions at 3315 can now add short positions with a light position at 3300. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD VANTAGE:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD ICMARKETS:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Charlie_Senior_Analyst
USD/CAD - 6C1! : Trade update FundamentalThe US dollar index (DXY) gained strength against major currencies on Monday following a landmark trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. During the meeting in Scotland on Sunday, President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new trade framework, which includes a 15% import tariff on EU goods—half of the 30% rate Trump had initially threatened to impose starting August 1. The DXY opened higher at the start of the week, and it’s clear that most currencies are likely to see a decline in response. This trend also extends to pairs like the 6C1! (USDCAD), where the USD has been increasing its long positions. Last week, non-commercial traders added to their holdings, while commercial traders remain at their highest levels since 2021. Based on this setup, we are maintaining a bullish outlook and expect the continuation of our long position strategy. Previous Idea : ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD Unless oil rockets, then the pair has room to rise.From June till now, we’ve been in a range-bound market, with multiple failed attempts to break lower. But now we’re seeing higher lows forming, and price is bouncing off my fvp zone @ 1.36600 . So if the Fed stays patient and oil stays weak or sideways, USD/CAD bulls have the upper hand. I am expecting a bearish retest soon to develop @ Key Bullish FVP Zone: 1.36600, but if 1.3577 gets violated with strength, then scratch the long idea — it might be time for CAD bulls to party instead. Extreme Discount Zone: Just below at 1.36000, If the price dips into this area, it could be a liquidity hunt. But if not, then the bulls will have to come in and drive the market to the 1st Take Profit Target: 1.38400
Long
by que
1
GBPUSD extends to the downside. Wait for retest to sell✏️ OANDA:GBPUSD confirms the downtrend by breaking the trendline. The downtrend is still extending to lower areas because the GBPUSD bearish wave structure is very beautiful. Some selling momentum appears around the breakout zone of 1.339, which will form a bearish structure towards the support of 1.287 in the near future. Putting faith in the trendline at the moment is reliable. 📉 Key Levels SELL zone 1.339-1.341 SELL DCA trigger: Break and trading bellow 1.317 Target 1.287 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Short
by VHT_Trader
2
BTCUSD Analysis : Major Breakout Setup | Big Move Loading"Bitcoin Coiling Below Key Resistance – Breakout or Trap?" 🔍 Technical Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading within a compressed range, sitting just below a key descending trendline that has capped upside movement for multiple sessions. Price is consolidating between minor highs and lows, hinting at a build-up of momentum for the next breakout move. The setup presents a classic compression inside a bearish wedge, but with increasing bullish pressure evident from higher lows and wick rejections near minor supports. 🧱 Detailed Technical Breakdown: 🔸 1. Descending Trendline Structure Price has formed a downward sloping resistance line from earlier highs. This trendline has acted as a dynamic ceiling, rejecting multiple bullish attempts. Each time price approaches it, the rejection gets weaker, indicating a possible breakout attempt soon. 🔸 2. Multiple Minor & Major Zones Minor Resistance: Around $118,800–$119,200 A short-term ceiling that has paused bullish rallies. Price needs a clean break and close above this to initiate momentum. Major Resistance: ~$121,000–$121,200 This zone aligns with a previous significant swing high. A break above here could result in strong bullish continuation toward ATH levels. Minor Support: ~$117,000 Price has repeatedly bounced from this level. A breakdown would indicate fading bullish strength and open the downside. Major Support: ~$115,000 A historically strong demand zone. If BTC fails all bullish attempts, this would be the final defense for buyers. 🧠 Market Psychology Insight: Price is trapped between aggressive short-term sellers and accumulating buyers. Buyers are placing confidence in this area by defending higher lows. Sellers are still protecting the trendline, but with each retest, the defense weakens. This is a classic equilibrium zone where liquidity is building—once imbalance hits, a strong impulsive breakout (either direction) is likely. Volume and momentum should be watched closely as a breakout with confirmation may trap the opposite side, leading to a strong move (short squeeze or long liquidation). 🔮 Scenario Forecasts: 📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario: Price breaks above $119,200 → minor resistance flips to support Retest of the broken trendline confirms a bullish breakout Price targets: First Target: $121,000–$121,200 (major resistance) Second Target: $122,500+ Third Target: $123,800–$124,000 (All-Time High) Confirmation Needed: 4H candle close above descending trendline and $119,200 with rising volume. 📉 Bearish Rejection Scenario: Price gets rejected from the trendline or minor resistance zone Breaks below $117,000 minor support Possible targets: First Target: $116,000 (reaction zone) Second Target: $115,000 (major support) A fall below $115,000 could invalidate the bullish buildup and invite strong bearish continuation. This would signal that bulls failed to reclaim control, and sellers maintain market structure dominance. 📌 Key Levels Summary: Type Price Range Significance 🔺 All-Time High $123,800–124,000 Final upside target 🔸 Major Resistance $121,000–121,200 Key breakout level 🔹 Minor Resistance $118,800–119,200 Immediate trendline + local supply 🔹 Minor Support ~$117,000 Local demand base 🔻 Major Support $115,000 Last line of defense for bulls 🧭 Conclusion & Strategy: Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break zone under a significant descending trendline. Price compression is tightening, and a breakout looks imminent. Traders should stay patient and wait for confirmation—either a breakout and successful retest for longs or a rejection and trendline defense for shorting opportunities. Whether it’s a breakout toward $121K and ATH, or a drop toward $115K support, this setup offers a high-probability trade opportunity for both bulls and bears depending on the confirmation.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
XAUUSD Analysis : Channel Break, Demand Zone + SR - Interchange"High-Probability Zone Reaction & SR Flip Confirmation" Gold (XAUUSD) is currently reacting from a significant support zone after completing a bearish breakout from a well-established ascending channel. The market structure indicates both threat and opportunity depending on how price behaves around key levels ahead. 🔍 Structure Breakdown & Price Behavior: 🔹 1. Rising Channel Violation Over the past few weeks, price was comfortably moving inside a well-respected ascending channel, making higher highs and higher lows. Recently, however, price broke below the lower boundary, which is often a bearish signal—indicating a possible trend reversal or a deeper correction phase. Such breakdowns suggest buyers are losing control, and bearish sentiment is gaining strength. 🔹 2. Supply Zone Reaction & Drop Before the breakout, we observed a sharp rejection from a high point, triggering a sell-off. The price completed its move into a previously defined supply zone, resulting in a strong bearish impulsive leg that pushed it outside the channel. This move shows clear institutional distribution—where large sellers unloaded positions around that zone. 📍 Key Zone Focus: 🟩 Previous Reversal / Demand Zone (Green Box) Price is now sitting in a historically strong demand zone, which acted as a major reversal point in the past. This area is marked as the first zone of interest where buyers might step back in to defend. The green box represents a liquidity pocket where institutions previously accumulated positions—hence it’s a strong bounce candidate. 🟦 SR Interchange Zone (Blue Box) The next major level above current price is the SR Interchange zone, around 3,320–3,340. This level was previously broken and now acts as resistance. It's crucial because it represents the battle zone where the market will decide whether to continue bearish or shift back bullish. 🧠 Market Psychology & Order Flow Insight: The recent aggressive selling pressure from the highs, followed by a bounce from the demand zone, shows a shift from euphoria to fear. Sellers are active at supply, while buyers are attempting to defend the previous demand. The market is currently in decision mode—and the SR flip zone (3,320–3,340) will be the judge. A break and retest above this level signals strength and potential for a trend resumption. A failure to reclaim it would confirm bearish dominance and open doors for deeper targets. 🔄 Possible Scenarios Ahead: 📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Rejection & Breakout: If buyers successfully hold the 3,280–3,260 demand zone and push price above the SR Interchange zone, we can expect: 📍 Target 1: 3,360 (mid-term resistance) 📍 Target 2: 3,400–3,420 (previous high & upper trendline) This would confirm a fakeout from the channel and a bullish continuation pattern. 📉 Scenario 2 – Failure at Resistance & Drop Continuation: If price fails to reclaim the interchange zone, expect a retest of the green demand, followed by a potential drop toward: 📍 3,260 – local support 📍 3,240 – major support (unfilled demand below) 📍 3,220–3,200 – ultimate downside target This would solidify a bearish market structure, confirming the sellers are in control. 🧭 Key Levels To Watch: Level Type Price Range Significance Supply Zone ~3,400–3,420 Major institutional selling area SR Interchange (Blue) ~3,320–3,340 Critical resistance / flip zone Current Price ~3,297 Watching reaction for momentum shift Demand Zone (Green) ~3,280–3,260 Key support / bounce zone Major Demand Pending ~3,240–3,220 Next support level if drop continues ✅ Conclusion: Gold is at a critical inflection point. The recent bearish breakout signals weakness, but the current support zone may provide a short-term bullish setup if buyers defend it effectively. A successful reclaim of the SR flip zone will shift sentiment bullish again. Otherwise, a deeper correction is likely. This setup is ideal for both swing and intraday traders—look for confirmation signals at the current support and SR zone before executing trades.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
XAU/USD at Make-or-Break: $3,304 Holds the Key!"XAU/USD is testing a key resistance at $3,304. A breakout could trigger a rally to $3,315, while rejection may lead to a drop to $3,292." Price Action & Key Levels Support: 3,298 → 3,292 (critical demand zone). Resistance: 3,304 → 3,310 (supply zone). Breakout Level: 3,304 (confirmation needed). Indicator-Based Evidence RSI: "RSI at 62 (not overbought), suggesting room for upside." MACD: "MACD histogram is rising, supporting bullish momentum." Moving Averages: *"Price above 9 & 21 EMA, short-term trend bullish." Fundamental Context "Gold is supported by Fed rate cut expectations, but a strong USD could limit gains." "Geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East tensions) may boost safe-haven demand." Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Entry: Buy above $3,304 (confirmed close). Target: $3,310 → $3,315. Stop-Loss: Below $3,298 (risk management). Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection Entry: Sell below $3,298. Target: $3,292 → $3,288. Stop-Loss: Above $3,306.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by MBharatKumar55
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 31, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The pound remains under pressure as consumer spending and the labor market in the UK are weakening, reducing the likelihood of an aggressive response from the Bank of England. Core inflation has dropped to 3.3% y/y – the lowest in two years – allowing the regulator to keep rates steady for longer. External factors are also unfavorable: demand for the defensive dollar is strengthening ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the yield spread between 10-year gilts and USTs has narrowed to 115 basis points – the lowest since March, stimulating flows into the dollar. Additional negative dynamics come from the rise in the UK current account deficit to 3.9% of GDP, amid higher prices for imported energy and declining exports of services. Expectations of tighter fiscal consolidation are increasing fiscal risks and encouraging investors to reduce long GBP positions. Risks to the bearish outlook are limited: these would be a surprise in the form of hawkish Bank of England comments or a sharp deterioration in US macro data that could weaken the dollar. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.32700, SL 1.32900, TP 1.31700
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
#DFM #DTC📢 Dubai Taxi Company Dividend & Price Update Dubai Taxi Company (DTC) will distribute a dividend of 6.43 fils per share to all shareholders who hold the stock by market close on August 5th. To qualify, make sure the shares are in your portfolio before trading ends on August 5, 2025. 💰 Strong H2 2025 Performance The company reported strong revenue for H2 2025, which fueled a breakout above the long-standing downtrend line — a bullish signal for investors. 📈 Price Action & Resistance Levels Current price: 2.70 AED First resistance: 2.70 AED (currently testing) Next resistance target: 2.80 AED 💡 Strategy Insight Holding the stock to receive the dividend appears to be a solid strategy. We will review market conditions and decide on August 6th whether to hold or exit the position.
DFM:DTCLong
by ali_zali
Gold Faces Strong Rejection Below $3,365 – Bearish Wave Ahead?Gold is currently trading around $3,359, showing signs of exhaustion after climbing from the $3,248 low. The chart illustrates a textbook scenario of channel rejection after testing the upper boundary of the descending wedge and failing to break above the $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. Price is now hovering just below the diagonal black trendline, indicating a potential lower high formation and setting up for another bearish wave. 📌 Key Technical Highlights Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392 This area marks the confluence of the black long-term trendline, the top of the descending purple channel, and the previous high at $3,392. Price attempted a "Possible Retest" as annotated on the chart and is now starting to pull back—showing signs of bearish rejection. Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows): Multiple downward arrows show likely bearish paths if the current resistance holds. Key short-term targets: $3,337, $3,320, $3,303, Strong support at $3,293–$3,248 Further downside may test extension levels toward $3,220–$3,200 by early August if momentum builds. ⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria Failure to close above $3,365 (black trendline) Breakdown below $3,337 followed by $3,320 Strong selling pressure supported by fundamentals (e.g. USD strength, Fed hawkish stance) ✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook A decisive breakout and close above $3,392.73 would invalidate the bearish structure. In that case, targets would shift toward: $3,412, $3,434, $3,490 (long-term trendline intersection) However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day. 📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch High CPI (Stronger than forecast): - Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold - Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293 Low CPI (Weaker than forecast): - Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold - Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434 Neutral or as expected CPI: - Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides - Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Price Update – Testing Key ResistanceGold is currently trading around 3367, showing strong bullish momentum as it continues to form higher lows, which indicates an ongoing uptrend. The market structure is developing inside a rising wedge pattern, with the price consistently respecting both the ascending support and resistance lines. Gold is now testing a key resistance zone between 3376 and 3450, an area that previously acted as a major supply zone and caused sharp rejections. A successful breakout and close above 3450 will likely confirm a bullish continuation and may open the door for a rally toward 3500 and possibly 3580. However, if gold fails to break this level, it could retrace back to the 3300 or 3250 support zones, especially if a rejection candle forms in the daily timeframe. 📊 Key Technical Highlights: - Price has approached the upper resistance boundary of the wedge. - Daily candle is bullish, indicating strong buying momentum. - However, unless price closes above 3,376–3,450, there’s still a risk of rejection from the top channel and a pullback toward 3,300–3,250. 🔑 Key levels to watch: - Gold is currently trading around $3,367, just below a crucial horizontal resistance at $3,376 - A strong breakout above $3,376, and especially above $3,450, could open the door for further bullish movement toward the $3,500–$3,600 range, following the upper trendline of the ascending channel. - On the downside, if price fails to hold the higher low at $3,252, a drop toward $3,200 or even $3,100 is possible aligning with the downward red trendline. - The structure remains bullish overall, as price is still making higher lows and staying within the rising channel 📊 Weekly Gold Chart Analysis Gold is currently trading around $3,368, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly timeframe. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout in either direction. The price is getting squeezed between lower highs and higher lows, which is a sign of decreasing volatility and approaching breakout. 🔑 Key Technical Insights: - ✅ Current Structure: Price has been consolidating within a triangle since April 2025 after a strong upward move. It is now near the apex of the triangle, suggesting a breakout is imminent—most likely in the next 1–2 weeks. 🔼 Bullish Breakout: - If gold breaks above the triangle resistance (~$3,385–$3,393), it could trigger a sharp rally. - Upside targets post-breakout: $3,450, $3,500, $3,600+ (if momentum continues) 🔽 Bearish Breakdown: - A break below the triangle support (~$3,335–$3,325) may lead to a deeper correction. - Downside targets post-breakdown: $3,285, $3,200 - Possibly $3,100–$3,050 if bearish sentiment intensifies 📉 Volume Drop: As typical with triangles, volume has likely decreased, signaling indecision. Once volume returns, it will likely confirm the breakout direction. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
The trend is clear, why do I choose to be firmly bullish on goldGold Trend Analysis: Yesterday, the gold market demonstrated strong upward momentum, opening near 3290 before falling slightly to a low of 3281 before fluctuating upward. Boosted by the non-farm payroll data, the gold market surged during the US trading session, reaching a single-day gain of 2.02%, reaching a high of 3363 and closing there. The daily chart formed a long bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, forming a Morning Star pattern, reinforcing the bullish trend. From the perspective of the cycle structure, the daily level is clearly in the 5-wave upward stage, and the upward trend of the large cycle has not changed. At the indicator level, the daily MACD momentum column (the column below the zero axis) represents the short-selling momentum. Its "gradual shortening" means that the short-selling force is weakening and the downward momentum is gradually fading. It is a potential signal of stopping the decline or rebounding. KDJ is about to form a golden cross between 20-50, which is a signal that short-term bullish power is beginning to increase, and the overall trend is bullish. The 4-hour level shows typical bullish characteristics: the moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern, but there is a certain deviation between the short-term price and the moving average. The technical side needs to correct the deviation rate through a callback before continuing to rise. The short-term support below is focused on the line near 3330-3335. This position is both the relay support level in the previous rise and the intersection of the 4-hour moving averages MA10 and MA20, which has strong support strength; the short-term resistance above is focused on the line near 3370-3383. This area is a pressure-intensive area near the previous high point. If it can be effectively broken through, it will further open up upward space. A successful breakout would open up further upside potential. A breakout would further open up the 3400 mark. For gold trading, the short-term strategy is to buy on dips. If the price pulls back to the 3330-3335 support level, consider entering a long position with a target of 3355-3365. If it reaches 3370-3380, consider a short-term short position with a target of 3350-3340.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade-Daniel
1