Get started

Futurestrading

Tactical Short Setup on EURThe September 2025 Euro FX futures contract (E6U25) is currently trading around 1.1440 after topping out near 1.19 the 1st of July. This decline reflects a broader market repricing, driven by evolving expectations around monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, softening Eurozone growth prospects, and a technical backdrop that has turned decisively bearish. Coupled with shifts in sentiment and options market positioning, the current setup presents an opportunity to initiate a tactical short with an attractive risk-reward profile. Fundamental Analysis – Central banks and diverging momentums Monetary policies on either side of the Atlantic appear to diverge. The Federal Reserve has kept its federal funds rate steady in the 4.25%–4.50% range since December 2024, resisting political pressure to ease. In contrast, the European Central Bank has gradually lowered its deposit rate from 4% to 2.00% since mid-2024 and maintained that level in July, considering inflation is now back to its 2% target. This has widened the yield differential in favor of the U.S. dollar. Forward guidance from both central banks suggests a cautious stance. The Fed’s June 2025 dot plot anticipates a modest rate cut by year-end, though FOMC members remain divided. Meanwhile, the ECB projects subdued inflation and modest growth, implying no urgency for further easing. On the macro front, U.S. GDP rebounded sharply in Q2 (+3.0% annualized), though driven largely by a collapse in imports. Domestic demand and job creation have slowed, and tariffs may push core inflation above 3% again. In the eurozone, Q2 GDP barely expanded (+0.1%), with uneven performance across member states. Inflation is stable at 2%, with core pressures easing. Altogether, the dollar retains a slight edge amid firmer data and a more hawkish Fed. Technical Outlook – Bearish shift with volume confirmation From a technical standpoint, the E6U25 contract has clearly broken down from its prior range. The area around 1.1775, which previously served as a high-volume node and resistance, was breached with strong downside momentum. The price action has since carved out a clean pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and volume has notably increased on bearish sessions, confirming the shift in control. The current structure suggests a vacuum between 1.1775 and 1.1500, with only minor resistance expected around 1.1545, where some residual volume lies. There is little to no support before the 1.1280–1.1300 area, which aligns with a lower volume shelf on the visible range volume profile (VRVP). If price retraces to retest the 1.1525–1.1575 zone, that area is likely to act as a tactical selling opportunity before potentially resuming the downtrend. Sentiment Analysis CFTC data as of late July shows asset managers holding a substantial long position in EUR/USD, though these are beginning to unwind. The positioning profile leaves the euro vulnerable to further long liquidation if the selloff deepens. Retail sentiment reinforces this view, as most retail traders are caught on the wrong side of the move. Open interest is stable but elevated, and trading activity has begun to rise slightly, hinting at retail dip-buying that may lack conviction. No major retail capitulation has occurred yet. Broad market volatility remains subdued, and EUR/USD-specific indicators show a similar picture. The CME CVOL Index for EUR/USD remains around 8, a level considered moderately low by historical standards, reflecting a calm, non-disruptive market environment that favors technical trading, including respect for resistance levels and trend-following strategies. Options Analysis According to the CME FX Options Vol Converter, the landscape for EUR/USD still exhibits a modest downside bias. Risk reversals across one to three months tenors remain slightly negative, reflecting moderate demand for euro puts. In listed markets, CME data for August expiries shows notable open interest concentration in puts at the 1.1450 and 1.1500 strikes, with deltas indicating directional positioning rather than purely hedging activity. On the call side, interest is more dispersed but visible above 1.1650, particularly at 1.1700 and 1.1750, suggesting some appetite for upside. However, the deltas are lower. Trade Idea A tactical short trade is favored in the 1.1525–1.1575 zone, which coincides with a potential pullback level within a well-established downtrend. This level also aligns with a minor volume shelf, providing a natural resistance area where sellers are likely to re-enter the market. The suggested stop level is 1.1650, just above the recent short-term swing highs, which would invalidate the current bearish structure. The target lies around 1.1290, near the next major support zone and volume cluster. Final thoughts The EUR/USD rally in May/June was primarily fueled by expectations of synchronized easing and softer U.S. data. However, the Fed’s reluctance to commit to a cut, combined with a relatively more aggressive ECB stance, has shifted the narrative back in favor of the dollar. With asset managers showing signs of willingness to further unwind their exposure, combined with sentiment indicators pointing to complacency, a deeper retracement remains plausible. The technical breakdown, lack of implied vol support for a rebound, and fresh open interest on euro puts collectively argue for tactical downside continuation. The proposed trade seeks to capture that move with a controlled stop and a realistic price target. Unless EUR/USD can reclaim the 1.1650–1.1700 zone decisively, the path of least resistance remains downward. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6EU2025Short
by satelysfx
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! Happy Friday, folks! Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k). Other key labor market indicators were as follows: • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%) • US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%) • US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%) • US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%) Data and Key Events Recap: What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline. U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2. Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993. Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference: • On current policy stance: “We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.” Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate. • On labor market risks: “By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.” • On inflation and tariffs: “It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.” Trade Headlines: US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%. The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage. Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025. The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook? Market Implications Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them. Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve? Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill. This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year. Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
How to Use Engulfing Candles in TradingViewEngulfing patterns are among the most powerful candlestick formations because they signal strong momentum shifts and can help you spot dramatic trend reversal opportunities. What You'll Learn: • How to identify valid engulfing formations where one candle completely covers another's body • The two types: bullish engulfing (green candle engulfs red) and bearish engulfing (red candle engulfs green) • Psychology behind engulfing patterns: when one side completely overwhelms the other • Using volume analysis to confirm engulfing pattern validity • Finding meaningful engulfing patterns at trend highs and lows for reversal setups • Timeframe considerations for engulfing analysis on any chart period • Step-by-step trading strategy for engulfing reversal setups • Setting proper stop losses above engulfing candle highs • Determining profit targets below engulfing candle lows • Managing wide-range drawdowns common with strong momentum shifts • Advanced entry technique: waiting for retracements to improve risk-reward ratios This tutorial may help futures traders and technical analysts who want to use powerful candlestick patterns to identify significant momentum changes. The strategies covered could assist you in creating effective reversal setups when strong buying or selling pressure appears at key price levels. Learn more about futures trading with Tradingview: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by OptimusFutures
MNQ Short @robby.tradez price looking to fill imbalance from yesterdays late New York session - what inspired the trade? I run a checklist of confluences when trading this asset, it is either I compare it with CME_MINI:MES1! or DXY as of now MNQ is below my daily open so it lets me know sellers are in control as well as using the volume profile gives me more confirmation, also pairing it with DXY then we have more reason why I took the trade \\ RR 1:4 I generally aim for 4% on a trade like this because it passes as a high probability trade A SETUP
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by RobbyTradez
07/30/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +960 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: still struggling with sleep due to heat waves VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!✅ — 9:45 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ✅ — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!❌ — 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!❌ — 12:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal, ✅ — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!✅ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? I have started to noticed that the last 3 days, we have been getting false triggers on market structure signals and it almost feels MM are trying to do it to break people's algo that trade on that. This is a good reminder that no matter how successful the signal has been for the last 30 days, you still need to have risk management. additionally, it's also a good way to test people's faith and trick new traders in going back to doing random things because it makes them think market can behave randomly and nothing works. this is why i always tell people to religiously test out a system for 30 days before giving up. News *FEDERAL RESERVE SKIPS RATE CUT, KEEPS FED FUNDS RATE AT 4.50% What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6410= Bullish, Under 6400= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
BTC ANALYSIS🔮 #BTC Analysis 💰💰 🌟🚀As we said #BTC performed same. Now, In daily chart we can see a formation "Rising Wedge Pattern in #BTC. There is a strong resistance zone and we could see a rejection from that level but if the price breaks the resistance zone then we would see a bullish move 💲💲 🔖 Current Price: $1,18,590 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked some crucial levels in the chart. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits in #BTC. 🚀💸 #BTC #Cryptocurrency #DYOR #PotentialBreakout
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
1
Implied volatility, one more tool in our arsenalWHAT IS IMPLIED VOLATILITY? Implied volatility (IV) refers to the market’s expectations of future volatility for a given asset, derived from option prices. Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price fluctuations, IV is forward-looking and reflects what traders believe will happen in the near future, typically over a 1 to 3 month horizon. IV is not directly observable; it is inferred from option prices using models like Black-Scholes. When option premiums rise even though the underlying asset remains flat, this often signals a rise in implied volatility: investors are preparing for more pronounced future price moves. IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN FX In FX markets, as in equities or commodities, implied volatility serves as a risk gauge and a proxy for uncertainty. It plays a critical role in portfolio management, hedging, and strategy timing. High implied volatility on a currency pair indicates market expectations for increased future movement. This can stem from upcoming economic data, central bank decisions, geopolitical risk, or broader market instability. For example, rising IV on EUR/USD ahead of a major Fed or ECB meeting may signal increased demand for options as market participants hedge against potential surprises. Conversely, sustained low IV often reflects calm market conditions or, at times, a strong directional trend. Implied volatility can act as a market condition filter for trading strategies. To simplify, we can, for example, divide the CVOL level into four distinct categories. Abnormally low IV (well below average): Reflects extreme complacency or post-event calm. Moderately low IV (below average): Indicates orderly, technical markets. Moderately high IV (above average): Suggests elevated uncertainty. Abnormally high IV (well above average): Signals market stress or panic. In spot FX, where retail traders rarely engage in options directly, implied volatility serves best as a macro signal, helping inform position sizing, stop placement, or overall risk exposure based on the current volatility regime. One advanced use of IV is to compare it against realized (historical) volatility. When implied volatility is much higher than realized volatility, it often means options are expensive, and vice versa. This comparison proves especially valuable in FX markets, as it helps traders identify situations where risk premia may be overpriced, revealing potential misalignments between implied and realized volatility. It also offers a forward-looking perspective by highlighting upcoming catalysts that are not yet fully priced into the spot market. INTRODUCING THE CME CVOL INDEX To make volatility data more accessible and comparable across asset classes, CME Group introduced the CVOL index family in 2023, a set of standardized implied volatility indexes derived from listed futures options. How CVOL is calculated? CVOL indexes are built using vanilla options on futures. They estimate 30-day forward implied volatility, using a basket of out-of-the-money options across various strikes and near-term expirations. The methodology is comparable to that of the VIX in equities, but adapted for the structure of futures markets. Each CVOL index is expressed as an annualized percentage, which can be interpreted as the expected one-standard-deviation move over the next 30 days. CVOL indexes in FX Several major currency pairs now have their own dedicated CVOL indexes, offering a real-time measure of implied volatility based on options pricing from CME Group futures contracts. Each index reflects the market’s expectations of future volatility for a given pair: EUVL for EUR/USD (based on 6E futures) JPVL for USD/JPY (6J futures) GBPVL for GBP/USD (6B futures) CAVL for USD/CAD (6C futures) ADVL for AUD/USD (6A futures) In addition to individual pair indexes, the G5 CVOL Index provides a broader view by aggregating the implied volatility of the five major currency pairs, offering a high-level snapshot of volatility across the G5 FX complex. This makes it a valuable tool for macro-focused traders monitoring global risk appetite, cross-asset volatility regimes, or portfolio-level currency exposure. HOW TO USE CVOL IN PRACTICE Detecting shifts in risk perception A sudden spike in CVOL, without a move in the underlying, suggests that institutional players are actively hedging. This can act as an early warning signal for market-moving events or shifts in sentiment. Example: before an ECB decision, a jump in EUVL from 7% to 10% annualized while EUR/USD remains flat may suggest that traders are bracing for a policy surprise. Adjusting position sizing When CVOL moves beyond predefined thresholds, traders often respond by reducing leverage, widening stop-loss and take-profit levels, and avoiding overly aggressive directional exposure, in contrast with periods where CVOL fluctuates near its historical average and market conditions appear more stable. Quant strategy filters CVOL can also act as a regime filter within systematic trading strategies. For example, when implied volatility on EUR/USD, as measured by EUVL, reaches extreme levels, certain algorithms may shift into breakout mode, anticipating strong directional moves in a high-volatility environment. Conversely, when the index shows no abnormal reading, it may reflect a well-balanced market backdrop, offering more orderly conditions where structured strategies such as range trading tend to perform better. As historical data on CVOL indexes are available, quant traders can easily backtest and validate ideas that incorporate volatility-based signals or regime filters. More experienced participants often go further, combining FX implied volatility with other volatility indicators, such as CVOL indexes on interest rate futures, to build multi-asset strategies and monitor cross-asset shifts in risk appetite with greater precision. FINAL THOUGHTS Implied volatility is a powerful lens into market expectations and potential price swings. In FX, although not always directly accessible to retail traders via options, IV data provides essential context for positioning, timing, and risk management. With the advent of CME’s CVOL indexes, traders now have a standardized and transparent way to track and compare implied volatility across currencies. Whether you are a macro trader, hedge fund manager, or informed retail participant, monitoring CVOL brings a distinct informational edge, especially when used to anticipate shifts in sentiment and volatility regimes. And perhaps most importantly: IV doesn’t tell you what happened, but what might happen next, making it an invaluable tool for anyone navigating fast-moving global FX markets. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by satelysfx
07/29/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +734 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: Been struggling with sleep due to heat waves VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish✅ — 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal✅ — 9:36 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ❌ — 11:49 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal✅ — 11:59 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal❌ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs) News — 1:30 PM 🇺🇸🇨🇳 *CHINA SAYS IT AGREES WITH US TO EXTEND TARIFF TRUCE What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
3
07/28/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +405 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: meh VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish❌ — 10:04 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal! ✅ — 11:21 AM Under 6424, the structure is bearish. Don't avg down! ✅ — 11:40 AMVXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal! ✅ — 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal! ✅ — 1:30 PM VXAlgo ES X3DD Sell Signal! ✅ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs) News Eu trade deal over the weekend, & china tariff extension. What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
07/25/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +228 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: Still struggling to catch up on sleep. gonna take gg sleeping pills today ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:07 AMMarket Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :white_check_mark: — 9:53 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :white_check_mark: — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :white_check_mark: — 11:00 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :x: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** Market structure algo was flipping a lot today, even in premarket, which tells me that MM was changing position a lot and things could be unreliable so i decided to end the trading day early at $200 and closed up shop on my main acccount. **News** *S&P 500 ENDS AT A NEW RECORD HIGH **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6372= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
07/24/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +1452 Sleep: 4 hours Overall health: need to catch up on sleep ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:37 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :white_check_mark: — 10:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :white_check_mark: — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :x: — 1:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal :white_check_mark: — 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3:white_check_mark: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** Today's market was a bit wild in the morning with a lot of big moves, sot here was opportunity to money if followed the signals. I mostly finished trading by 12:30 because there was so many big moves. **News** (US) Pres Trump: Regarding firing Powell, would be a big move, it's not necessary; No pressure for Powell to resign; Have 1-3 names in mind for Fed Chair position **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6370= Bullish, Under 6355= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
07/23/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: -1243 Sleep: 4 hours Overall health: having issues with sleep the last 2 nights VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 9:23 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 9:34 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 12:17 PM NQ X1 Sell Signal (triple sell) What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? After going on a long green streak, I got a bit greedy and wanted to make a big profit and went a bit risky dicky at the end of the session, having been able to read everything pretty well, I was pretty sure $6400 was going to be a pretty tight resistance between reading the gammabot data and options data, it showed that we would stall at $6400 on ES so i decided to put a few big ES short positions there with a tight stoploss at 6405 thinking, it surely can't go wrong with only a few minutes left in the session. and surely it did, it went completely wrong and i went from being positive for the day to negative and throwing my profits away. News *STOCKS SURGE AFTER US-JAPAN TRADE DEAL AS S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH FRESH RECORDS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6339= Bullish, Under 6320= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
11
Short the Slip Above 1.3500Fundamental Outlook: A stagflation trap The UK economy continues to emit worrying signs of stagflation: inflation remains uncomfortably high, growth is weak, and the once-tight labor market is starting to soften. Consumer confidence has deteriorated, and house prices are experiencing record declines, a trend that underscores the fragility of household wealth and future consumption. In this challenging context, any rally in the pound should be treated with caution. The broader macro backdrop still favors the US dollar, especially if incoming US data continues to support a "soft landing" narrative. In contrast, the UK's trajectory appears more constrained. On monetary policy, the Bank of England is expected to maintain a predictable, yet clearly dovish, easing cycle through the second half of 2025. Market consensus leans toward a 25 bps cut in August, followed by a pause in September, then another cut in November. This gradual pace of easing may keep the pound under persistent pressure, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a more stable or data-driven stance. On the political front, Trump’s critical remarks toward Powell and evolving UK-US relations represent potential flashpoints. Any surprises here could further erode confidence in the pound. Technical Analysis: Signs of breakdown below 1.34 The September futures contract (6BU2025) has dropped over 2.5% in a straight line during the first two weeks of July, pressuring the 1.34 USD support zone before rebounding in recent sessions. So far, each rebound attempt has been met with consistent selling, and the brief move above 1.3500 appears fragile, offering a potential short opportunity to re-enter the previous range. A sustained daily close below 1.3370 would likely pave the way for further downside toward the 1.32 level, which hasn’t been visited since May 13th. Notably, the volume profile reveals a liquidity vacuum in that region, potentially acting as a price magnet. Overall, the technical setup favors another leg lower, barring the emergence of a strong bullish catalyst capable of reversing the prevailing trend. Sentiment Analysis: Mixed but fragile From a positioning standpoint, the CFTC's latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows asset managers increasing their bearish exposure. Net short positions grew from 13,154 to 27,611 contracts, hinting at rising institutional pessimism toward the pound. In the FX/CFD retail segment, positioning remains relatively balanced. However, we notice a pattern: retail traders tend to increase long exposure on dips, profiting from short-term rebounds, a classic contrarian signal that the market may still have room to move lower. Volatility remains muted, with the VIX trading below 17, close to its annual lows. This low-volatility environment tends to reinforce technical trading patterns and increases the likelihood that price respects key support/resistance zones, unless jolted by surprise macro events. Options Market: Downside risk priced in In the listed options market, we see a clear asymmetry in favor of downside protection. Out-of-the-money (OTM) puts trade at higher premiums than equivalent calls, confirming a market pricing greater fear of a GBP decline. Open interest (OI) is notably concentrated in the 1.34–1.35 strike zone. This suggests potential pinning around these levels near expiry, but also highlights the risk of increased volatility if the spot price deviates sharply. A move away from this cluster could spark rapid adjustments in hedging flows, adding fuel to the next directional move. Trade Ideas: Two ways to play the bearish bias 1. Classic directional strategy Entry: Short at current price (around 1.3535) Stop Loss: Daily close above 1.3602 (Volume Profile Point of Control) Take Profit 1: 1.3370 (recent support) Take Profit 2: 1.3200 (liquidity void) This strategy targets a clean technical setup with clearly defined risk. A break below 1.3370 would confirm downside momentum and offer a high-reward second leg toward the 1.32 region. 2. Alternative strategy: Replace your stop loss with an OTM call option Rather than exiting prematurely via a hard stop loss in case of a false breakout, consider purchasing an OTM call option as a form of insurance. This allows you to stay in the trade while limiting your maximum loss. For instance, buying the August 1.355 call, currently trading around 0.0059 on CME (59 ticks), caps your loss in the event of an unexpected breakout above resistance. If the cable squeezes sharply higher, the call option will compensate part or all of the loss on the short position beyond the strike price. This hybrid approach works particularly well in setups like this one, where fundamentals and sentiment support a bearish outlook, but positioning and low volatility leave room for abrupt technical counter-moves. Final thoughts The pound faces an increasingly precarious setup. Fundamental conditions in the UK remain soft, monetary policy is turning more accommodative, and political uncertainty looms large. Meanwhile, technical and sentiment indicators tilt bearish, and the options market reflects elevated downside risk premiums. In short, while the market may already be pricing in some of this pessimism, the risks of a deeper GBP correction remain high. Traders should watch upcoming catalysts, BoE and Fed meetings, US/UK economic data, and geopolitical signals, and adjust positions accordingly. Until we see a clear shift in macro data or a breakdown in technical patterns, fading rallies remains a strategy with attractive risk/reward potential. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6BU2025Short
by satelysfx
07/22/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: + Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: Good ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:40 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal — 11:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal — 2:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** Very clean trading day for me, signals worked out really well and everything played out accordingly **News** S&P 500 CLOSES AT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ABOVE 6,000 **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6339= Bullish, Under 6320= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
How to Trade Doji Candles on TradingViewLearn to identify and trade doji candlestick patterns using TradingView's charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures. Doji candles are among the most significant candlestick formations because they signal market indecision and can help you spot potential trend reversal opportunities. What You'll Learn: • Understanding doji candlestick patterns and their significance in market analysis • How to identify valid doji formations • The psychology behind doji candles: when buyers and sellers fight to a draw • Using volume analysis to confirm doji pattern validity • Finding meaningful doji patterns at trend highs and lows for reversal setups • Timeframe considerations for doji analysis on any chart period • Step-by-step trading strategy for doji reversal setups • How to set stop losses and profit targets • Real example using E-Mini S&P 500 futures on 60-minute charts This tutorial may help futures traders and technical analysts who want to use candlestick patterns to identify potential trend reversals. The strategies covered could assist you in creating straightforward reversal setups when market indecision appears at key price levels. Learn more about futures trading with Tradingview: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
GOLD: Pre-market PrepSo for gold today, I see a lot of confluence around the prior week's high, prior day's high, and the prior value area high. We also had a poor high last Friday that we've clearly broken through. Right now, we're in balance up above these key levels. My immediate plan is to continue going long up to the prior month's value area high. If we get a pullback to the confluence area, I want to take it up from there. If the market opens and we accept back into the previous area, I'll be looking to go short from that area and take it down. That's my main analysis for gold today. Let’s trade smart, peace!
COMEX:GC1!
by JBradleyTrades
DIYWallSt Trade Journal:$238 Lessons From Monthly Expiration07/18/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +238.75 Sleep: 5. hours Overall health: Was working late last night and didn't get much sleep. VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 11:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (didn't work that well) — 12:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal — 12:19 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was monthly expiration for options and we got a lot of X7 Sell signals but structure was bullish so I tried to take a long at MOB and got burned. Flipped bearish and started shorting the rest of the day and ended up making money back. News *US STOCKS MOVE LOWER AFTER REPORT SAYS TRUMP PUSHES FOR 15-20% MINIMUM TARIFF ON ALL EU GOODS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6335= Bullish, Under 6315= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Pre-Market Prep 7.18.2025What it do, everyone! Here’s my pre-market prep for Friday, July 18th. Just to give you a quick overview, I'm using my prior value areas, the prior day's high and low, and the CVA levels from my market profile. I use all this history to help me plan my trades for the day. So, starting with the S&P, as of now we’re green across the board. We’re in balance up from the prior day’s range, value area, and the CVA. My main plan is to look for acceptance and a pullback to a confluence area for longs. If we get rotational and break out of that area, I’m ready to go short. For the NASDAQ, it's a similar story. We’re rotational in the prior value area and range, but we’re balanced up from the recent CVA. Right now, I’m waiting to see if we can confirm acceptance and then I’ll look for a short from that rotational area down to the prior value area low. In the Russell, I’m seeing clear acceptance above all levels, so a pullback to the confluence area for a long would be ideal. For Gold, I’m also seeing it in balance up on all fronts. My first move would be a long from the prior day’s high. If we drop a bit lower, I’ll be looking at that CVA and PVA area for another long. The Euro is a bit more mixed. We’re rotational in the prior day’s range but balanced up in the value area and CVA. I want to clear the prior day’s high before taking any big moves. The Yen is also rotational, so I’m looking to trade the extremes, maybe some scalps while we’re balanced in the prior value area. For the Aussie Dollar, we’re in balance up from the PVA, but rotational in the prior day’s range and CVA. I’m looking for shorts near the top area and longs at the bottom, staying out of the middle for now. And finally, Crude Oil is rotational on all fronts. My first plan is to look for shorts from the confluence area down to the prior day’s range. That’s my pre-market prep for today. Let’s trade smart. Happy Friday, peace!
NYMEX:CL1!
by JBradleyTrades
Weekly Close High to HOLD?As expected Nas100 will end in a weekly high after hitting a nice fresh record due to TSMI stock among other things like Trump walking back on firing Jermone Powell. Technicals tell me that this is extremely overbought and I wonder if this will continue I cannot believe this rally. AS LONG as it holds the 23100 to 23150 range then it could break out again and set another high but I would be cautiously optimistic. Somebody's got to take the profit!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by helpmetraderacademy246
Pre-Market Prep Today, I'm narrowing down to six key markets. For the S&P, it's all about waiting for a pullback from the prior day's high or a breakout above the CVA. If it dips back inside the range, I'm ready to go short with some scalps. For the NASDAQ, it's looking strong. I'm thinking about a long position if it pulls back to the prior day's high. Gold is in a downtrend across all areas, and I'm already in a short position from the CVA low. I'm thinking about adding to that if it pulls back to the prior day's low. Crude Oil is pretty balanced. I'm looking at the high of the CVA for a short opportunity if it gets there. For the Yen and Euro, both are rotational. I'm eyeing long opportunities if they show some acceptance and pullbacks from key levels. That's the vibe for today. Let's trade smart, avoid the chop, and keep it moving. Peace!
CME:6E1!
by JBradleyTrades