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Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule Key Themes to Monitor This Week Geopolitical Risks Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions. There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market. Trade War and Trade Deals There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements. FED Week This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled. Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance? Expectations for the Week Ahead NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher. Key Levels to Watch • yVAH: 22,690.50 • R2: 22,510 • R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50 • May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25 • yVPOC: 21,660 Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range. Example Trade Idea 1 • Entry: 22,000 • Stop: 21,930 • Target: 22,322 • Risk: 70 pts • Reward: 322 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week. Example Trade Idea 2 • Entry: 21,672 • Stop: 21,600 • Target: 22,000 • Risk: 72 pts • Reward: 328 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R ________________________________________ Glossary • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VA: Value Area • VAL: Value Area Low • VAH: Value Area High • VP: Volume Profile • AVP: Anchored Volume Profile • Y: Yearly • pWk: Previous Week
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
2
Gold Loses Shine Amid Hopes the Middle East War Remains Under Co Gold is showing little movement today, holding near $2,386 per ounce after a drop of over 1.4% yesterday. This weak performance comes as market fears over the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict have eased. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region to the rest of the world will not face major disruption. Scenarios that could shock oil prices, according to Axios , include Israel striking Iran’s key export facilities, Iran targeting production sites in the region, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these developments have occurred so far, which has kept fears of renewed inflation and persistently high interest rates in check. The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal believes that global oil production capacity can absorb supply disruptions unless they are catastrophic, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the conflict does not severely disrupt energy supplies, markets may downplay its impact. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gains in gold prices. However, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict soon, Iran may choose to escalate it by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by The Journal . This concern could prompt the US and Gulf states to intensify diplomatic efforts or even pull the US directly into the conflict. Beyond the military situation, markets are watching developments in the US-China trade dispute, where talks have yet to make meaningful progress. The lack of a breakthrough could push the US to impose restrictions on semiconductor exports and manufacturing equipment, threatening billions in American corporate sales, according to The Journal . Such moves might trigger further escalation by China, which holds leverage through its dominance in rare earth metals. Renewed tensions could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation even higher. Although recent inflation data do not suggest a sudden surge in prices, experts told The New York Times that the effects of tariffs and supply chain disruption may take months or even over a year to feed through to consumer prices. This is partly because sellers can rely on pre-tariff stockpiles and offer discounts for a period. Failure to resolve these issues could see inflation rebound, keeping interest rates high at levels that the economy may not be able to bear. The chief economics commentator at The Journal wrote last week that the Federal Reserve should shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy through rate cuts, given signs of labor market weakness. Persistently high rates or further increases, along with rising bond yields, may not weigh on gold. On the contrary, they could support demand for the safe-haven asset as worries about slowing growth and recession deepen. Uncertainty in the bond market remains high compared to levels before the Ukraine war in 2022, as shown by the ICE BofAML TVC:MOVE index, which measures fear in the US Treasury bond market. This could limit the downward pressure of rising yields on gold prices. Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision on interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell’s remarks after the announcement. A stronger Fed stance on keeping rates elevated for longer might temporarily pressure gold. However, renewed concerns about economic growth could quickly restore demand for the yellow metal. Data from China also continue to fuel economic worries. Recent figures show industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth slowing more than expected, which could bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Samer Hasn
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by SamerHa
Bitcoin Consolidates Near Highs — Bullish Wedge Signals StrengthHolding Strong Amid Uncertainty: Despite rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remains resilient, trading near recent highs. This stability reflects strong institutional confidence and sustained accumulation by long-term holders. Bullish Technical Setup: The ongoing consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000 is forming a wedge pattern—a classic bullish continuation structure. This suggests the market is coiling for its next major move. Key Levels to Watch: Immediate Resistance: $112,500 Support Zone: Holding above $100,000 keeps the bullish case intact Measured Move Target: $130,000–$135,000 Outlook: This tight consolidation signals a healthy pause in a strong uptrend, positioning Bitcoin for a potential breakout and continuation higher. All signs point to the bulls remaining firmly in control. #Bitcoin #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishWedge #CryptoMarket #InstitutionalBuying #PriceAction #Geopolitics #SupportAndResistance #BullRun
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Richtv_official
Beyond the Headlines - Gold Outlook June 16-20, 2025Beyond the Headlines: Gold's Ascent Amidst Global Shifts & Key Technicals 🌐🚀 Everything about the last week can be found here: OANDA:XAUUSD 💰📈 We all know what's going on, I believe. Israel struck Iran 💥, and this conflict will likely take a bit before things cool down. 🥶 --- ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 ### Israel / Iran Since June 12, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan – over 128 killed, Iran claims. 🇮🇷 retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing at least 10. 🚀 **Outlook:** 🔥 Tensions are spiraling. Without urgent mediation, full-scale regional war remains a real risk. 💣 ### India / Pakistan Since the May ceasefire, few clashes have occurred. However, both navies increased readiness, signaling potential escalation at sea. 🚢 **Outlook:** ⚖️ Peace is fragile. A strategic dialogue is key to avoiding a renewed border or maritime conflict. 🙏 ### Gaza Conflict Between June 7–15, Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians, including 8 near an aid center in Rafah. Over 55,000 total deaths, and famine is looming. 💔 **Outlook:** 🆘 Gaza remains a humanitarian catastrophe. Global pressure for access and a ceasefire must intensify. 🕊️ ### Russia / Ukraine June 13–15: Russia returned the bodies of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in a rare POW swap gesture. 🤝 Fighting remains intense in Sumy and Toretsk; Russia hit a major oil refinery. 🏭 **Outlook:** 🕊️ While symbolic moves continue, no peace is in sight – battlefield outcomes will shape diplomacy. ⚔️ ### U.S. - China Trade War The U.S. hiked tariffs to 55% on key Chinese goods. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 responded with 10% on U.S. imports. Talks yielded a partial truce, but military-use rare earths remain unresolved. 💻 **Outlook:** 🔧 Tech remains the battleground. Without progress on critical materials, the trade war may deepen. 📉 ### Global Trade War The OECD revised global growth downward due to rising tariffs from the U.S. targeting 🇨🇳, 🇲🇽, 🇨🇦. Global trade volume is expected to shrink by 0.2–1.5%. 📉 **Outlook:** ⛓️ Supply chain disruption is spreading. Global trade will stay under pressure without coordinated policy. 🌍➡️🌍 ### Trump vs. Powell Trump labeled Powell a "numbskull" for not cutting rates, suggesting he might "force something" if re-elected. 🗳️ The Fed maintains policy independence ahead of a critical June decision. 🏛️ **Outlook:** ⚔️ Political pressure on the Fed is mounting. Expect more friction as the election cycle heats up. 🔥 ### U.S. Inflation CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (from 2.3%); Core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Monthly growth was modest at 0.1%. Key rises were seen in healthcare and vehicle prices. 🚗🏥 **Outlook:** Inflation is stable but sticky. 🚦 The Fed will likely hold rates steady until clearer disinflation signals appear. 📊 --- ## Technical View 📐📈 ### Market Structure: Gold shows a clear **bullish market structure** with higher highs and higher lows. ⬆️ Recent price action suggests we're in a strong uptrend with institutional buying pressure. 🏦 ### Key Levels: * The chart shows a significant low around the **$3,245 area** (marked as "Low") which could act as a key institutional support level. 💪 * The current high near **$3,446** represents a potential institutional resistance zone. 🛑 * Look for potential **order blocks** around the **$3,380-$3,400 range** where price consolidated before the recent breakout. 🧱 ### Fair Value Gaps (FVG): There appear to be several gaps in the price action during volatile moves, particularly during strong rally phases. These could act as future support/resistance areas. 📉📈 ### Gann Analysis: The price movement shows strong adherence to Gann principles: * The rally from the low follows a steep angle, suggesting strong momentum. 🚀 * Key Gann angles would place support around the **$3,300-$3,320 zone**. 📐 * The current price near **$3,436** is testing natural resistance levels based on Gann square calculations. 📏 ### Fibonacci Levels: From the significant swing low to the current high: * 23.6% retracement: ~$3,395 📉 * 38.2% retracement: ~$3,370 📉 * 50% retracement: ~$3,345 📉 * 61.8% retracement: ~$3,320 📉 The golden ratio levels suggest key support on any pullback would be around the **$3,370-$3,345 zone**. ✨ ### Institutional Levels: * **Weekly/Monthly Levels:** The **$3,400** and **$3,450** areas appear to be significant institutional levels based on round numbers and previous price action. 🏦💰 * **Smart Money:** The accumulation pattern before the breakout suggests institutional participation. 🧠💡 ### Cycle Timing: Based on the timeframe (appears to be 30-minute bars from May 26-June 15): * We're seeing approximately **3-week cycles** in the major moves. 🗓️ * The current rally phase appears to be in its mature stage. 🌳 * The next potential cycle turn could be approaching, suggesting caution for new longs at current levels. ⚠️ --- ### Trading Considerations: * Watch for rejection at current levels near **$3,446**. 📉 * Key support confluence around **$3,370-$3,345** for potential re-entry. 🎯 * Volume and momentum divergences would be critical for timing any reversal. 📊🔄 Other indicators tend to show bullish scenario enhancements. 🚀 Gold has formed a ** Standard Bullish Flag pattern ** over a time from early April till today. 🚩🐂 Also, the structure of a ** reverse Head & Shoulders ** is existing and has broken the neckline! 🔄🗣️ Another indicator is an existing "** Ascending Bull Flag **." ⬆️🚩 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
Turbulent Week Ahead? Gold Outlook June 9-13, 2025Hey fellow traders, Let's dive into the OANDA:XAUUSD outlook for the upcoming week, June 9-13, 2025. The recent price action has been a rollercoaster 🎢, and the next few days promise even more fireworks 🎇. Looking back at the 30-minute chart from May 22 to June 6, gold saw an initial consolidation, then a strong rally to multi-week highs near 3,420. However, this was followed by a sharp, dramatic reversal, pushing prices back below 3,300. This "bull trap" 🐂 pattern suggests underlying weakness and potential preemptive market positioning. Another view on this could be the possibility that a gap on the chart at 3300-3295 of around $5 could get closed. Since strong support is right below this, it could serve as a good launchpad 🚀 for an upward rally. Let's see if the upcoming Asia session on Monday triggers this because its only - $14 from $3309. Key Drivers for the Week Ahead: 📅 June 9, 2025 (Monday) US-China High-Level Trade Talks Commence in London High-level delegations from the United States and China began trade discussions in London. This meeting followed an announcement by President Donald Trump on Friday, June 6, 2025, who described a preceding 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "very positive". The US delegation included Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, reflecting a coordinated approach to addressing complex trade issues. The talks were primarily aimed at resolving the ongoing bilateral trade war, with a particular focus on tariffs and the global supply of critical rare earth minerals.5 While no specific time for the commencement of talks was provided, it is understood they began during London's daytime, approximately (10:12 CEST /  04:12 EDT). These discussions occurred in the context of a temporary 90-day agreement reached on May 12, 2025, which had seen the US reduce its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reciprocate by lowering its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%.9 However, this temporary truce is set to expire in early August, and President Trump had recently accused China of violating the agreement, specifically regarding critical mineral exports. The broader bilateral relationship remains strained by issues extending beyond tariffs, including restrictions on advanced chips, student visas, and concerns over China's state-dominated economic model. The prompt scheduling of these high-level talks immediately after a leader-to-leader call suggests a tactical move towards de-escalation of immediate trade tensions, aiming to prevent a full-blown trade war. The objective appears to be managing current conflicts rather than achieving a fundamental resolution, especially with the May 12 agreement nearing its expiration. The core disputes, such as control over rare earths and technology, are deeply entrenched and reflect a broader geopolitical competition rather than mere economic disagreements. This pattern of temporary de-escalation followed by persistent underlying tensions indicates a long-term,structural competition. It suggests that trade policy is increasingly intertwined with national security and geopolitical strategy, implying that businesses should anticipate continued volatility and strategic decoupling in certain sectors, rather than a return to pre-trade war normalcy. Other big movers for gold will be the US inflation reports. 💥 📅 Wednesday, June 11 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT): We get the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Watch for Core CPI (YoY) with a forecast of 2.9% and headline CPI (YoY) at 2.5%. 📅 Thursday, June 12 (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT): The US Producer Price Index (PPI) follows. Forecasts are for Core PPI (YoY) at 3.0% and headline PPI (YoY) at 2.6%. 📊 These numbers are critical. If inflation comes in hotter 🔥 than expected, it will likely strengthen the US Dollar 💵 and push real interest rates higher 📈, making gold less attractive. This could trigger further declines 📉, especially given the current market structure. Conversely, cooler 🧊 inflation could spark a significant rebound 🔄. Beyond US data, keep an eye 👁️ on speeches from various European Central Bank (ECB) officials throughout the week, including President Lagarde on Tuesday (23:15 CEST / 17:15 EDT). Their collective tone 🎤 could influence EUR/USD dynamics and indirectly impact the US Dollar Index, offering a counterbalance ⚖️ or amplification to gold's movements. Key Numbers and Technical Levels to Watch: Gold is currently sitting on a substantial speculative net long position of 187.9K contracts. This is a massive amount of bullish bets 📊🐂, making gold highly vulnerable to rapid liquidation 💣 if the fundamental picture turns sour. A "long squeeze" could amplify any downside move. Immediate Support: The 3,300 level is paramount. A decisive break below it would signal further weakness. Below that, 3,250 is strong technical support where we saw a bounce previously. Overhead Resistance: Look for resistance at 3,350-3,360, and then the recent peak of 3,420. Reclaiming these levels would require a significant shift in sentiment. Expect high volatility ⚡, especially around the US inflation releases. Trade smart 🧠, manage your risk ⚖️, and stay nimble! 🏃 Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍 India / Pakistan The ceasefire from May 10 is holding, but diplomatic relations remain frosty. India has launched a global image campaign to gain support, while Pakistan insists on dialogue and accountability. Outlook: Without substantial agreements on border terrorism and water issues, tensions will stay latently high, with potential for new escalation risks. ⚠️ Gaza Conflict Violence escalated again in early June. Israel intensified attacks, killing civilians seeking aid in Gaza City, and at least six people were killed at a distribution point. Outlook: The humanitarian situation continues to worsen 🚨, and international mediation efforts are urgently needed. However, an immediate ceasefire seems unrealistic. ❌ Russia / Ukraine In the first week of June, Russia launched one of its largest series of attacks: hundreds of drones and missiles hit Kharkiv and Kyiv, resulting in civilian casualties. Simultaneously, a planned prisoner exchange has stalled. Outlook: Strategic air attacks will likely continue 💥, and the prisoner exchange remains deadlocked. Without a diplomatic initiative, the conflict will stay entrenched. 🕳️ U.S.–China Trade War Following talks between Trump and Xi, new negotiation rounds are expected in London. China has opened up rare earth exports, a sign of cautious de-escalation. Outlook: If dialogue channels open 🗣️, systemic trust could grow, but genuine reforms remain uncertain. 🤔 🌐 Global Trade War The OECD has lowered its growth outlook to 2.9%, warning of protectionism 🧱 and delayed investments. The ECB is also maintaining synchronization with the FED. Outlook: Without de-escalation, the world faces a global economic slowdown 🐌 and permanent fragmentation of supply chains. 🔗 🏛 Trump vs. Powell Trump has again complained about the FOMC's hesitancy, nicknaming Powell “Too Late,” and demanding a full 1% interest rate cut. Outlook: Pressure is mounting 📣. Whether the Fed yields depends on if inflation and labor data allow for a loose policy. 🎯 💵 U.S. Inflation – May 2025 Forward-looking data shows a weakening services sector and consumer prices rising again as tariffs pass through. Official CPI data for May 2025 will be released on June 11. Outlook: Higher inflation could halt the Fed's "dereflexion" course — a dilemma ⚖️ between growth 📈 and price stability. 🛑 Technical View 📐 Regarding the major Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4H chart I shared previously, I'd like to explain some new developments that are altering its potential outcome. Since the price has re-entered and fallen below the neckline, I activated my "second brain cell" 🧠 to guess what could be next. This led me to revise the larger 4-hour chart structure with the adjustments shown in the accompanying image. As you can also see in the updated version below, a reversed H&S pattern remains a possibility, as the proportions still appear valid. 🔄 Potential Scenarios for Gold 🧩 Under this revised idea, Gold could potentially reach the neckline entry at 3397 (+88) from the current price. This is one plausible scenario. ✅ Alternatively, the price could drop further to the "Head" at 3120 (-191 from the current 3309), which would, of course, invalidate this H&S pattern. ❗ While this is speculative 🔮, given that trading often involves psychological movements and their resulting impacts, I believe this is a favorable approach to forecasting. Another reason to see it as bullish is the formed standard bull flag 🚩🐂. Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
XAUUSD - High possibility of volatile market opening (20250616)Well, it is quite obvious we have a volatile geo-political crisis this weekend, so market may overreact once again to bring Gold to at least 3500 opening. Looking at volume, though Gold is in uncharted territory and it can be move as high as 3550 - 3600, I rather play for a quick profit. Hope later this Sunday, we can find some positive news that can at least hold the surge of Gold to minimum. Trade safe, Trade wisely. Monday will be a very volatile opening.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by sharpie0319
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 13, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited notable volatility, mirroring patterns observed in the preceding week. The currency has surpassed both the Mean Resistance level of 1.145 and the Key Resistance level of 1.151, subsequently retesting the significant completed Outer Currency Rally level at 1.157. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to revisit both the Key Resistance and the completed Outer Currency Rally and expand further to the next Outer Currency Rally of 1.177 in the forthcoming trading session(s). However, there exists a potential for a continuation of the downward trend from the current level, which could lead to the price action targeting the Mean Support level at 1.149 and possibly a further extension to the Mean Support level at 1.140.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 13, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the past week, Bitcoin has exhibited considerable volatility. After reaching a peak at the first Mean Resistance level of 109500, the cryptocurrency experienced a significant decline. Nevertheless, on Friday, Bitcoin demonstrated a notable recovery, ascending to a newly established resistance now designated as the new Mean Resistance level marked at 110300. At this juncture, Bitcoin is retracing downward as it retests the initial Mean Support level of 104000 while aiming to target the Mean Support at 101500 and the ultimate Inner Coin Dip at 96500. It is essential to recognize the potential for an upward rally from the Mean Support levels of $ 104,000 and/or $ 101,500, which could culminate in a retest of the Mean Resistance level of $ 110,300.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Gold: silence on the charts—because the real money already movedThe gold market isn't reacting — it's confirming. The Israeli strikes on Iran? That’s the trigger. But the move started earlier. Price was already coiled, already positioned. All the market needed was a headline. And it got it. Price broke out of the accumulation channel and cleared $3,400 — a key structural level that’s acted as a battleground in past rotations. The move from $3,314 was no fluke — it was a textbook build: sweep the lows, reclaim structure, flip the highs. Volume spiked exactly where it needed to — this wasn’t emotional buying. This was smart money pulling the pin. Technicals are loaded: — Holding above $3,396–3,398 (0.618 Fibo + demand re-entry zone) — All major EMAs (including MA200) are now below price — RSI strong, no sign of exhaustion — Candles? Clean control bars — breakout, retest, drive — Volume profile above price = air pocket — resistance is thin to nonexistent up to $3,450+ Targets: — $3,447 — prior high — $3,484 — 1.272 extension — $3,530 — full 1.618 expansion — key upside target Fundamentals: Middle East is boiling. Iran is ready to retaliate. Israel is already escalating. In moments like these, gold isn't just a commodity — it's capital preservation. The dollar is rising — and gold still rallies. That means this isn’t about inflation, or rates. It’s about risk-off. Pure, institutional-level flight to safety. Tactical view: The breakout is done. Holding above $3,396 confirms the thesis. Pullbacks to that zone? Reloading points. While gold remains in the channel and momentum is clean, the only side that matters right now — is long. When price moves before the news — that’s not reaction. That’s preparation. Stay sharp.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Uncertainty: The Dollar's Unexpected Ally?The recent strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the Israeli shekel (ILS) serves as a potent illustration of the dollar's enduring role as a safe-haven currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Investors consistently gravitate towards the perceived stability of the dollar during periods of global unrest, leading to its appreciation against more volatile and susceptible currencies, such as the shekel. A significant driver of this dollar demand stems from the precarious security landscape in the Middle East. Reports detailing Israel's potential operation into Iran, coupled with the United States' proactive measures like authorizing voluntary departures of military dependents and preparing for a partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy, signal Washington's anticipation of potential Iranian retaliation. Assertive declarations from Iranian officials, explicitly threatening US military bases and claiming intelligence on Israeli nuclear facilities, further amplify regional risks, compelling investors to seek the dollar's perceived safety. Compounding this geopolitical volatility is the stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy. Hurdles persist not only over core issues, such as uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, but also over the basic scheduling of talks, with both sides expressing diminishing confidence in a resolution. The recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting, where the US and European allies introduced a non-compliance resolution against Iran, adds another layer of diplomatic tension, threatening increased sanctions or nuclear expansion and reinforcing the perception of a volatile environment that inherently strengthens the dollar. These escalating tensions have tangible economic repercussions, further fueling investor flight to safety. The immediate aftermath has seen a significant increase in oil prices due to anticipated supply disruptions and a notable depreciation of the Iranian rial against the dollar. Warnings from maritime authorities regarding increased military activity in critical waterways also reflect broad market apprehension. During such periods of instability, capital naturally flows into assets perceived as low-risk, making the US dollar, backed by the world's largest economy and its status as a global reserve currency, the primary beneficiary. This flight-to-safety dynamic during major regional conflicts involving key global players consistently bolsters the dollar's value.
Long
by UDIS_View
Why QuickLogic? Unpacking its Semiconductor Surge.QuickLogic Corporation, a vital developer of embedded FPGA (eFPGA) technology, currently navigates a rapidly evolving semiconductor landscape marked by intense technological innovation and shifting geopolitical priorities. Its recent inclusion in the Intel Foundry Chiplet Alliance signals a pivotal moment, affirming QuickLogic's expanding influence in both defense and high-volume commercial markets. This strategic collaboration, combined with QuickLogic’s advanced technological offerings, positions the company for significant growth as global requirements for secure and adaptable silicon intensify. Critical geopolitical imperatives and a profound shift in semiconductor technology fundamentally drive the company's ascent. Nations are increasingly prioritizing robust, secure, and domestically sourced semiconductor supply chains, particularly for sensitive aerospace, defense, and government applications. Intel Foundry's efforts, including the Chiplet Alliance, directly support these strategic demands by cultivating a secure, standards-based ecosystem within the U.S. QuickLogic’s alignment with this initiative enhances its status as a trusted domestic supplier, expanding its reach within markets that value security and reliability above all else. Technologically, the industry's embrace of chiplet-based architectures plays directly into QuickLogic’s strengths. As traditional monolithic scaling faces mounting challenges, the modular chiplet approach gains traction, allowing for the integration of separately manufactured functional blocks. QuickLogic's eFPGA technology provides configurable logic, perfectly suited for seamless integration within these multi-chip packages. Its proprietary Australis™ IP Generator rapidly develops eFPGA Hard IP for advanced nodes like Intel’s 18A, optimizing power, performance, and area. Beyond defense, QuickLogic's eFPGA integrates into platforms like Faraday Technology's FlashKit™-22RRAM SoC, offering unparalleled flexibility for IoT and edge AI applications by enabling post-silicon hardware customization and extending product lifecycles. Membership in the Intel Foundry Chiplet Alliance offers QuickLogic tangible advantages, including early access to Intel Foundry's advanced processes and packaging, reduced prototyping costs through multi-project-wafer shuttles, and participation in defining interoperable standards via the UCIe standard. This strategic positioning solidifies QuickLogic’s competitive edge in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing landscape. Its consistent innovation and robust strategic alliances underscore the company’s strong future trajectory in a world hungry for adaptable and secure silicon solutions.
NASDAQ:QUIKLong
by UDIS_View
Platinum's Quiet Ascent: What Drives Its New Value?Platinum, often operating in the shadow of gold, has recently experienced a significant surge in value, reaching multi-year highs and capturing considerable investor attention. This resurgence is not arbitrary; it stems from a complex interplay of industrial demand, tightening supply, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and a notable shift in investment sentiment. Understanding these underlying forces becomes crucial for investors seeking to decipher the trajectory of this vital industrial precious metal. A primary catalyst for platinum's price rally is its strong industrial utility, particularly within the automotive sector, where it remains indispensable for catalytic converters. While the rise of battery electric vehicles presents a long-term shift, the robust growth in hybrid vehicle production continues to sustain demand. Critically, the market faces persistent physical deficits, with supply consistently falling short of demand for the past two years, a trend projected to continue into 2025. Mine output struggles due to disruptions in key producing regions, such as South Africa and Zimbabwe, and secondary supply from recycling has proven insufficient to bridge the growing gap. Geopolitics and strategic investment further amplify platinum's upward trajectory. China has emerged as a pivotal market, with a sharp rebound in demand as consumers increasingly favor platinum for both jewelry and investment amidst record gold prices. This strategic pivot by the world's largest consumer market is reshaping global platinum price discovery, supported by China's initiatives to develop new trading ecosystems and futures contracts. Concurrently, renewed investor confidence is evident in growing inflows into platinum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and robust physical buying, with anticipated lower borrowing costs also enhancing its appeal. In essence, platinum's current rally reflects a powerful combination of tightening supply and resilient industrial demand, underscored by strategic shifts in major consumer markets and renewed investor interest. As above-ground stocks gradually deplete and the market anticipates continued deficits, platinum is poised for a sustained period of relevance, offering compelling prospects for those who recognize its multifaceted value proposition.
FX_IDC:XPTUSDLong
by UDIS_View
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 6, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited notable volatility, mirroring patterns observed in the previous week. The currency surpassed a significant Mean Resistance level of 1.142 and encountered substantial resistive price action near the crucial Key Resistance level of 1.151. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to approach the critical Mean Support level at 1.137 and may decline to the subsequent Mean Support level at 1.129. Nevertheless, there exists the possibility of an upward movement from the current level or the Mean Support at 1.137, which could result in a target Mean Resistance of 1.145 and a retest of the Key Resistance at 1.151.
by TradeSelecter
Nu Holdings: Is Latin America's Fintech Star Sustainable?Nu Holdings Ltd. stands as a prominent neobank, revolutionizing financial services across Latin America. The company leverages the region's accelerating smartphone adoption and burgeoning digital payment trends, offering a comprehensive suite of services from checking accounts to insurance. Nu's impressive trajectory includes acquiring 118.6 million customers, accumulating $54 billion in assets, and consistently demonstrating robust revenue and net income growth, primarily driven by its strong presence in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia; - this strategic alignment with digital transformation positions Nu as a significant player in the evolving financial landscape. Despite its remarkable expansion and optimistic projections for continued customer and asset growth, Nu faces notable financial headwinds. The company experiences an erosion in its net interest margin (NIM), influenced by increased funding costs from attracting new, high-quality customers and a strategic shift towards lower-yield, secured lending products. Furthermore, the depreciation of the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso against the US dollar impacts their reported earnings. Nu's ambitious ventures, such as the NuCel mobile phone service, require substantial capital investments, introducing execution risks and demanding efficient capital allocation. Beyond internal financial dynamics, a significant, albeit external, geopolitical risk looms: a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This event would trigger a global embargo on China, leading to unprecedented supply chain disruptions, widespread stagflation, and hyperinflation worldwide. Such a catastrophic economic cascade would profoundly impact Nu Holdings, even given its regional focus. It would likely result in drastically reduced consumer spending, a surge in loan defaults, severe challenges in accessing funding, further currency devaluations, and soaring operational costs, thereby threatening the company's stability and growth prospects. Ultimately, Nu Holdings presents a compelling growth narrative rooted in its innovative model and strong market penetration. However, internal pressures from evolving interest margins and high capital expenditure, combined with the low-probability but high-impact global economic upheaval stemming from geopolitical tensions, necessitate a cautious and comprehensive assessment. Investors must weigh Nu's demonstrated success against these complex, intertwined risks, acknowledging that its future prosperity is inextricably linked to both regional economic stability and the broader global geopolitical climate.
NYSE:NUShort
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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced significant volatility during this week's trading session. It reached a significant Mean Resistance level at 1.142 while also encountering Mean Support at a target of 1.122. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to revisit the critical target of 1.142, which includes Key Resistance at 1.151 and the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.157. However, there is a potential for a downward correction from the current level, which could lead to prices retesting the Mean Support of 1.122. There is also a possibility for further declines, reaching the Outer Currency Dip at 1.108.
by TradeSelecter
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EV Crossroads: Is BYD's Price War the Future of Mobility?The electric vehicle (EV) sector is currently navigating a period of significant turbulence, exemplified by the recent stock decline of Chinese EV giant BYD Company Limited. This downturn follows BYD's aggressive strategy of implementing sweeping price cuts, ranging from 10% to as much as 34% across its electric and plug-in hybrid models. This bold maneuver, primarily aimed at reducing a burgeoning inventory that swelled by approximately 150,000 units in early 2025, has ignited fears of an intensified price war within China's fiercely competitive EV market. While analysts suggest these discounts could temporarily boost sales, they also underscore deeper anxieties stemming from slowing EV demand, persistent economic sluggishness in China, and ongoing US-China trade frictions, leading to concerns about margin compression across the industry. In stark contrast to BYD's emphasis on manufacturing scale, vertical integration, and aggressive pricing, Tesla distinguishes itself through a relentless pursuit of technological supremacy, particularly in autonomous driving. Tesla's foundational commitment to autonomy is evident in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which has accumulated over 3.5 billion miles of data, and its substantial investments in the "Dojo" supercomputer and custom AI chip development. While BYD is also investing in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), including the adoption of DeepSeek’s R1 AI model, Tesla's ambitious Robotaxi project represents a higher-risk, higher-reward proposition centered on true unsupervised autonomy, a strategy that proponents believe could fundamentally transform its valuation. Further complicating the competitive landscape are escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China, casting a long shadow over Chinese companies with exposure to US capital markets. Despite BYD's strategic avoidance of the US passenger car market by focusing on other international regions like Europe and Southeast Asia, the broader implications of Sino-American friction are inescapable. Chinese firms listed on US exchanges face rigorous regulatory scrutiny, the persistent threat of delisting under legislation like the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA), and the chilling effect of broader trade restrictions. This environment has led to stark warnings from financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs, for instance, outlining an "Extreme Scenario" where the collective market value of US-listed Chinese stocks could effectively vanish, highlighting how geopolitical stability is now as crucial to investment outcomes as any balance sheet.
OTC:BYDDFShort
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Weekly Analysis For XAUUSD (stress free trading) Weekly Analysis for Goldie (May 26–30) From last week's analysis, we’re still on track and the move was fueled by news as expected. (just following Technical levels) Gold broke the trendline clean and retested it, with structure still holding bullish. Price rejected around 3365, which aligns with the 4H fib (23%) and a minor supply zone. volume faded on Friday due to the early US close and the long weekend. Powell’s speech is set for early Monday before the market opens. If he leans dovish or hints at rate cuts, gold could break above 3371 and push toward 3430 or even 3498. But if he stays hawkish, we might get another rejection at 3365 and a pullback to 3330 or even 3292 though the bullish bias remains intact unless 3244 breaks. On the macro side, US/EU tariffs kicking in June 1 ongoing (but still unresolved) Iran talks, Trumps new tax bill adding more debt, and the Moody’s downgrade of the US credit outlook all lean toward further upside for gold. COT data also shows instiution still holding strong net long positions in gold. ⭐️ Expect low NY session volume on monday due to the US holiday. Key zones to watch 3371 for breakout continuation, 3330 and 3292 for pullback buys, and 3365 for short-term scalp rejections. Overall bias remains bullish with strong structure and macro confluence.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by StressFreeTrading
3
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated significant strength during this week's trading session, attaining a notable Inner Currency Rally at 1.129 and encountering Mean Resistance at 1.137. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro will likely progress towards the forthcoming target levels, specifically the Mean Resistance at 1.142 and the Key Resistance at 1.151. A retest of the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.157 may facilitate this advancement. However, a potential downward pullback could emerge from the current price range, particularly in proximity to the Mean Resistance level of 1.137, with a possibility of declining to the Mean Support at 1.127.
by TradeSelecter
Will Middle East Tensions Ignite a Global Oil Crisis?The global oil market faces significant turbulence amidst reports of potential Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. This looming threat has triggered a notable surge in oil prices, reflecting deep market anxieties. The primary concern stems from the potential for severe disruption to Iran's oil output, a critical component of global supply. More critically, an escalation risks Iranian retaliation, including a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which a substantial portion of the world's oil transits. Such an event would precipitate an unprecedented supply shock, echoing historical price spikes seen during past Middle Eastern crises. Iran currently produces around 3.2 million barrels per day and holds strategic importance beyond its direct volume. Its oil exports, primarily to China, serve as an economic lifeline, making any disruption profoundly impactful. A full-scale conflict would unleash a cascade of economic consequences: extreme oil price surges would fuel global inflation, potentially pushing economies into recession. While some spare capacity exists, a prolonged disruption or a Hormuz blockade would render it insufficient. Oil-importing nations, particularly vulnerable developing economies, would face severe economic strain, while major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia, would see substantial financial gains. Beyond economics, a conflict would fundamentally destabilize the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, unraveling diplomatic efforts and exacerbating regional tensions. Geostrategically, the focus would intensify on safeguarding critical maritime routes, highlighting the inherent vulnerabilities of global energy supply chains. Macroeconomically, central banks would confront the difficult task of managing inflation without stifling growth, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets. The current climate underscores the profound fragility of global energy markets, where geopolitical developments in a volatile region can have immediate and far-reaching global repercussions.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by UDIS_View
Honeywell: Quantum Leap or Geopolitical Gambit?Honeywell is strategically positioning itself for significant future growth by aligning its portfolio with critical megatrends, notably aviation's future and quantum computing's burgeoning field. The company demonstrates remarkable resilience and foresight, actively pursuing partnerships and investments designed to capture emerging market opportunities and solidify its leadership in diversified industrial technologies. This forward-looking approach is evident across its core business segments, driving innovation and market expansion. Key initiatives underscore Honeywell's trajectory. In aerospace, the selection of the JetWave™ X system for the U.S. Army's ARES aircraft highlights its role in enhancing defense capabilities through advanced, resilient satellite communication. Furthermore, the expanded partnership with Vertical Aerospace for the VX4 eVTOL aircraft's critical systems positions Honeywell at the forefront of urban air mobility. In the realm of quantum computing, Honeywell's majority-owned Quantinuum subsidiary recently secured a potentially $1 billion joint venture with Qatar's Al Rabban Capital, aiming to develop tailored applications for the Gulf region. This significant investment provides Quantinuum with a first-mover advantage in a rapidly expanding global market. Geopolitical events significantly influence Honeywell's operational landscape. Increased global defense spending presents opportunities for its aerospace segment, while trade policies and regional dynamics necessitate strategic adaptation. Honeywell addresses these challenges through proactive measures like managing tariff impacts via pricing and supply chain adjustments, and by realigning its structure, such as the planned three-way breakup, to enhance focus and agility. The company's strategic planning emphasizes leading indicators and high-confidence deliverables, bolstering its ability to navigate global complexities and capitalize on opportunities arising from shifting geopolitical currents. Analysts project strong financial performance for Honeywell, forecasting substantial increases in revenue and earnings per share over the coming years, which supports expected dividend growth. While the stock trades at a slight premium to historical averages, analyst ratings and institutional investor confidence reflect positive sentiment regarding the company's strategic direction and growth prospects. Honeywell's commitment to innovation, strategic partnerships, and adaptable operations positions it robustly to achieve sustained financial outperformance and maintain market leadership amidst a dynamic global environment.
NASDAQ:HONLong
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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited notable signs of weakness, ultimately reaching a critical Outer Currency Dip at 1.111, facilitated by Mean Support at 1.119. Following this decline, the market experienced a pronounced rebound. Recent analysis indicates that the Euro will likely close with a retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.111, while it may progress towards the next Outer Currency Dip at 1.095. It is essential to highlight that upward "dead-cat" rebounds may arise within the current price range, particularly around the Mean Resistance level of 1.125, and could potentially approach an Inner Currency Rally at 1.129.
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Global Calm, Fiscal Storm: The Yen's Challenge?The USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a notable surge, driving the Japanese Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar in a month. This appreciation primarily stems from a significant improvement in global risk sentiment, sparked by a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and China. This deal, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, has bolstered investor confidence and diminished the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Adding to the dollar's strength is the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, signaling no immediate plans for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets amidst easing concerns about a US recession. Simultaneously, internal economic pressures in Japan significantly weigh on the Yen. The nation's public debt has reached an unprecedented high, driven by persistent increases in defense spending and social welfare costs due to an aging population. Government subsidies for energy bills and the need to issue more bonds to cover rising expenditures exacerbate this fiscal strain. This challenging domestic backdrop contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's position, creating a widening divergence in monetary policy outlooks that favors the US Dollar through yield differentials, despite the Bank of Japan's cautious consideration of future rate adjustments. Furthermore, reducing global geopolitical tensions has contributed to the shift away from safe-haven currencies. Recent ceasefires and prospects for diplomatic talks in key conflict areas have encouraged a "risk-on" environment in financial markets. This increased appetite for riskier assets directly reduces demand for the Japanese Yen, amplifying the impact of fundamental economic factors and monetary policy divergence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The pair's trajectory remains subject to evolving global dynamics, upcoming economic data releases, and central bank communications.
Long
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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited signs of weakness following a rebound at the Mean Resistance level of 1.137. With decisive, vigorous bearish price activity, the currency pair decisively breached the critical Mean Support level of 1.128. Current market indicators suggest that the Euro will likely close on a Mean Support level of 1.119, moving further towards an Outer Currency Dip at 1.111. However, it is essential to acknowledge that upward dead-cat rebounds may re-emerge at the present price range level.
by TradeSelecter