Technical Analysis for GER40 (DAX) Closing Price: 23,372.80 (15th Aug 2025, 11:50 PM UTC+4)
Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).
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1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)
Elliott Wave:
GER40 is likely in Wave 3 of a broader bull cycle (Wave 1 peak: 22,800, Wave 2 dip to 21,500).
Wave 3 Target: 24,000–24,500 (1.618 extension of Wave 1).
Gann Price Forecasting:
Square of 9: √23,372.80 ≈ 152.90 →
Resistance: 153² = 23,409 (immediate), 154² = 23,716 (swing target).
Support: 152² = 23,104 (daily pivot), 151² = 22,801 (Wyckoff accumulation zone).
Ichimoku (Monthly):
Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish (Tenkan: 22,900 > Kijun: 22,400).
Cloud: Price above thick Senkou Span (22,000–22,500) – structural bullishness.
Moving Averages:
Weekly SMA(100): 22,200 (major support).
Swing Outlook: Bullish. Wave 3 rally targets 24,000–24,500.
2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)
Harmonic Patterns:
Bearish ABCD on Daily:
A: 23,800 → B: 23,100 → C: 23,550 → D: 23,380–23,420 (1.272 BC extension).
Bullish Crab (W Pattern) forming near 23,100 (0.886 XA retracement).
Wyckoff Phase:
Testing at 23,400:
Upthrust rejection at 23,450 (15th Aug) on low volume.
Spring potential near 23,100 (accumulation signal).
Gann Theory:
Time Window: Aug 18–20 (Square of 9 date cluster) for breakout/reversal.
Price-Time Squaring: 23,372 aligns with Aug 15 – consolidation expected.
Gann Angle: 1x1 angle at 23,300 – close below accelerates selling.
Indicators:
RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
RSI: 64 (neutral, no divergence).
Price testing upper BB(20,2) at 23,450 – expansion hints at volatility.
VWAP (Weekly): 23,250 (swing support).
Swing Trade Setup:
Short near 23,400 (ABCD target) → Target 23,100. Stop-loss: 23,500.
Long near 23,100 (Crab + Gann 151² support) → Target 23,800. Stop-loss: 22,950.
3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 23,400 (Gann 1x1), 23,450 (weekly high).
Support: 23,300 (VWAP), 23,200 (Ichimoku cloud), 23,100 (psychological).
Indicators:
Ichimoku (1H):
Tenkan: 23,360, Kijun: 23,330 → Price above both (short-term bullish).
Cloud: Bullish (23,280–23,320) – strong support zone.
RSI + Bollinger Bands (4H):
RSI(14): 58 (neutral).
Price near mid-BB(20,2): 23,350 – break below signals bearish momentum.
VWAP + MAs:
VWAP: 23,340 (intraday pivot).
EMA(50): 23,310 (dynamic support).
Candlestick Patterns:
4H Shooting Star at 23,450 (15th Aug) → Bearish reversal confirmed.
1H Bearish Engulfing below 23,380 – adds downside pressure.
Gann Intraday Squaring:
Time Cycle: 8:00–10:00 AM CET (European open) for volatility.
Price Harmony: Close below 23,350 targets 23,300 → 23,250.
Intraday Trade Plan:
Sell below 23,350 → Target 23,300 (VWAP) → 23,250 (Ichimoku cloud).
Buy above 23,400 only with RSI <60 → Target 23,450.
Stop-Loss: 25–30 points risk.
Summary of Key Signals
Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <23,350 23,340–23,350 23,250–23,300 23,380
Swing Bullish 23,100–23,150 23,600–23,800 22,950
Swing Bearish 23,390–23,420 23,100–23,200 23,500
Critical Events Ahead:
Gann Reversal Window: Aug 18–20 (watch for Eurozone CPI/GDP data).
Daily Close >23,450 invalidates bearish ABCD and targets 23,716.
Risk Note: GER40 is sensitive to EU political/energy risks. Use tight stops during news events.
Disclaimer: Technical analysis is probabilistic and based on historical patterns. Fundamental drivers (e.g., ECB policy, German industrial data) may override technical signals. Always use risk management.
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I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
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