GOLD-SILVER
GOLD - To the Moon?-With Russian banks getting banned and sanctioned everywhere, what will happen to the market? Well if you freeze a country's dollar reserves, you decrease the liquidity within the market. With the decreased liquidity central banks such as FED would normally have to print more money or open more Swap Lines for other banks so that these banks have money to lend. This whole swift ban and sanctions on Russia have such a dramatic effect on the economy which we can't even imagine how will come out in the end. Definitely has a bearish effect tho!
-Another issue is the rising Gas prices. Well, why do they rise tho? Maybe because Russia is a major supplier of Gas internationally? That might be the issue, right? Of course, it is! One thing that Putin has, and that's his Ego. With so many sanctions applied to him from his western friends, he definitely plans about a pay-back in terms of Gas. Germany is a major economy in the European Union and Germany greatly depends on Russia for Gas. Guess what happens in inflation goes up in Germany due to rising oil prices? Union goes down as a whole.
-Third and last issue is the March Fed interest rate hike. Initially, it was clear that Powell wants to start easy with some small rise, but what about now? With the whole war and its effects on additional inflation, will we have a bigger rise? Or will FED ignore inflation for a while and save the market from a crash by easing the economy for a little more? Well, that's the question that keeps the market away from the crash, for now, it all depends on FED. Honestly, in this hell, we see no light, super bearish. But who are we when there is FED and their decision in March? Let's see how it goes!
Vox support holds, assets will support through 2022C$3.66 is a weekly support level that has been tested and proven to be a solid base to build on. Looking left along the chart there is very little imbalance within the price action to backfill unless of course, we go lower. With their focus on acquiring third-party royalties mainly within the precious metals (80%), they are delivering growth and returns on the invested capital and have executed 25 separate transactions since 2019. Invested capital so far is C$32M and now they have around C$140M total equity value.
In 2021 they had 5 producing assets in the next year or so we should be seeing that number more than double. There are currently 17 royalties in the development stage and 33 in exploration.
XAUUSD UpdateAnother week another post that the gold is short despite it is melting up on a Russian-Ukraine war hype.
Yes, the triangle scenario is getting extremely challenged. I even allow a scenario where the triangle is broken and I have to relabel it in some other bearish way. Tradingwise, I am very close to the point where I give up with my shorts to step outside and watch whatever happens next be it a melt up or forming the local top which will allow me to re-enter. If it melts up - perhaps I will miss that move.
I will elaborate more using my blog / website referring to Silver charts for confirmation.
Vox Royalty finds weekly supportI am going to assume that the price of gold is supported around the $1800 for the rest of 2022. If that level were to break, and a bear market ensued, precious metals miners, #GDX, etc. would come under pressure and the current rising tide that is lifting all boats would recede and companies like Vox Royalty Corp may come under pressure becue of sentiment.
Fundamentally, the Vox Royalty story goes from strength to strength and this coming earnings report should highlight the accretive nature of the current producing royalties which will form a base for what happens in the rest of 2022 and then beyond. With all that said, I don't think we get back down to C$2.69, which is the previous support, imbalance. This week's low dipped into C$3.66 and was rejected, which to me shows that the support level is currently there with the volume confirming the price action.
Looking left across the chart, there is no level of market structure to worry about, which means liquidity runs above C$4.00 is the path of least resistance.
AUY's Inevitable Path to $7Is it finally time to be bullish on gold and silver mining stocks? A lot of indicators are pointing to YES. There will certainly be pullbacks along the way, but with interest rates rising and war tensions overseas, precious metal stocks are beginning to gain a lot of interest. NYSE:AUY will be the perfect example of that.
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There will be ,,golden‘‘ times coming From a chart technical perspective we are nearly at the highest point of the cyclicality. It’s unbelievable if you recognize how many years it’s costs to stay there where we are.
Anyway, if we see at the fundamentals right now, it doesn’t seems that bad for gold:
- inflation isn’t peaking
- Russia Ukraine could getting more worse (I don’t hope so)
- Gold is hitting 1870$ for several times &
- (If we should gonna get more worse economic datas than gold will more rise)
We are at a level of 1870$ right now. We could nearly hit 1900/1920 (or even more) in middle of march. If the FED will hike the interest rates we are gonna see big pullback to much bigger lower levels like 1720 or 1640. For now…
XAUUSD UpdateGold did it again. Smashed my shorts. Still what happened in the red rectangle does not allow me to interpret the recent development as a bullish move. I keep watching for a turnaround. Though now it is again extremely challenging, and there is no divergence against the RSI.
I remember I hesitated to label the recent abrupt sell-off as 5 wave impulse thinking it was wxy in wave 1 of the leading triangle. I was right about wxy, I was wrong about the leading triangle.
Now I am back to square one, betting on a turn around in gold with no hard evidence so far on 4 hour chart.
Gold - Odds of bullish breakout are increasingGold keeps holding up pretty well despite the prospect of upcoming rate hikes in 2022. It continues its choppy price action within the neutral zone between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. At the moment, it trades slightly below the upper bound of the neutral zone which increases odds of yet another bullish breakout. We noted previously that we expected such breakout to be accompanied by resumption of the uptrend. However, previous breakouts became invalidated shortly after their occurrence took place. Because of that we will pay close attention to price action and we will reassess the situation as developments move forward.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the price which has returned back into the upward moving channel. This is bullish development.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is bullish too. Same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX contains low value which signals that no trend is currently present. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. However, lack of suggests that price action will continue to be choppy until breakout above the neutral zone or below it takes place.
Illustration 1.02
Picture above depicts the daily chart of XAUUSD and its previous false breakouts and invalidations. We will observe whether gold will manage to break above the resistance at 1835 USD without being invalidated shortly after.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD is bullish. DM+ and DM- are mixed with ADX suggesting the presence of the neutral trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Support and resistance
Main resistance lies at the upper bound of the neutral zone (1835 USD) while main support sits at its lower bound (1750 USD). Other important resistance levels can be found at 1850 USD, 1877 USD, 1916 USD. Other important support levels can be found at 1725 USD, 1700 USD and 1676 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Gold & SilverHey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Gold & Silver Futures Market. Gold & Silver and other precious metal markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern due to supply and demand . Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
XAUUSD GOLD Technical Analysis (POTENTIAL BREAKOUT)-Bullish pennant daily chart pattern.
-Long term bullish in gold/commodities with inflation and with potential inflation rated.
-Buy low/Sell high.
-Potential stop loss hunt when the price gets more squeezed closer together. Normally a big explosive move to the upside comes from this.
-I could see a fake-out to the downside and trap a lot of traders then the big money takes the price to the upside.
Gold Update I continue to hold a bearish bias towards gold despite yesterdays recovery and a powerful bounce. Again it is too speculative to label the count. I do not dismiss the idea that whatever is happening now could be a leading diagonal. It is interesting to see how it corresponds to the crypto market. I will cover it in my Weekly Update.
permabullgold going doink doink dooink! in the cup! will we see a new handle?! 2 dayly cycles and back 2000 8-)