GOLD PLAN 14/07 – NOT ENOUGH LIQUIDITY TO FLY YET📰 MARKET OVERVIEW & MACRO CONTEXT
Gold begins the new week with a sharp correction after filling a major Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed two weeks ago. The early drop reflects investor caution as several key macroeconomic events loom this week:
US CPI & PPI
Unemployment Claims
Retail Sales Data
Volatility is expected to stay high from the beginning to midweek, before the market forms a clearer direction based on incoming data.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – FOCUS ON LIQUIDITY & SMART MONEY CONCEPTS (SMC)
🧠 Core Logic:
Gold has swept liquidity at the recent short-term high around 3368–3370.
Price is now pulling back to hunt deeper liquidity below, particularly near:
H4 FVG zone: 3340–3334
Primary Buy Zone: 3336.9 – 3334 (aligned with intraday VPOC)
🔎 SMC Setup:
A clear Break of Structure (BOS) on H1 confirms a bullish continuation.
Price is currently retesting a confluence zone of Order Block and FVG — typical Smart Money behaviour.
If price sweeps below 3334, a sharp move to the upside is expected, targeting:
3388 – 3391 (distribution / sell zone)
🌊 Elliott Wave:
Wave III likely completed around 3388.
Market is now in corrective Wave IV.
If the structure holds, Wave V could launch with significant bullish momentum.
📌 TRADE SCENARIOS
✅ PRIMARY BUY SETUP (PREFERRED)
Entry: 3336.9 – 3334
Stop Loss: 3332
Targets:
TP1: 3368 (M15 Supply Zone)
TP2: 3388 (Previous Swing High)
TP3: 3391 (Major Distribution Zone)
🔁 BACKUP BUY SETUP
Entry: 3286 – 3284 (if deeper flush occurs)
Stop Loss: 3280
Targets: 3291 – 3299 – 3310 – Open
❌ SHORT-TERM SELL SCALP (Advanced Only)
Entry: 3368 – 3370
Stop Loss: 3374
Targets: 3363 – 3355 – 3341 – Open
🧭 OUTLOOK
Current price action suggests gold is not ready to rally just yet. Deeper liquidity must be tapped, especially around the FVG and lower OB zone, before a sustained move upward.
Priority remains on buying from liquidity zones aligned with Smart Money logic.
Scalp sells are optional but carry higher risk — trend bias remains bullish.
