XAUUSD Monthly Outlook – May 2025👋 Hey GoldMindsFX!
🕰️ Timeframe: Monthly
📍 Current Price: 3,204
📈 Bias: Cautious Bullish-to-Neutral
📏 Trend: Strong long-term bullish, but in monthly exhaustion/cool-off mode
🔍 STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW
BOS (Break of Structure): Confirmed above 2,075 (2020/2022 key resistance).
Rally: Sustained higher highs and strong bullish candles since October 2023.
Current Candle: Huge wick into FIB extension (1.618–2.0) = 3,440–3,500 (top-out risk).
🧠 KEY MONTHLY LEVELS TO WATCH
Type/Zone Price Range Quick Note
🔴 Premium Supply 3,440–3,500 FIB extension (1.618–2.0), big rejection wick, bull exhaustion
🟠 Resistance 3,222–3,242 Prior OB + last BOS area, possible retest zone
⚠️ Mid-Zone 3,160–3,185 Equilibrium, liquidity trap, key short-term support
🟢 Demand 3,050–2,960 Big monthly OB + FVG, unmitigated base, strong support
🔵 Discount 2,950–2,800 Previous reaccumulation, structure demand from 2023 rallies
🗺️ MACRO & MARKET CONTEXT
Geopolitical Tension: Wars, inflation, and Fed confusion (CPI/UoM).
Market Mood: Sentiment weak, uncertainty high after May FOMC & Powell.
Central Bank Flow: Dips bought, but profit-taking near highs — “wait and react” mode.
🧭 SCENARIOS FOR MAY
Bullish Plan: If price holds above 3,160–3,185 ➔ look for re-entry toward 3,240 and possible retest of upper wicks (3,440+).
Needs H4 CHoCH + volume for confirmation.
Bearish Plan: Lose 3,160 ➔ look for a drop toward 3,050–2,960. If that fails, watch for deeper retrace to 2,800–2,950.
⚙️ FIBONACCI EXTENSION SUMMARY
1.272: ✅ Hit
1.618: 3,440 (Tapped)
2.0: 3,500 (Wick/Exhaustion)
🧠 FINAL WORD
Gold’s monthly “moonshot” stalled at 3,500 — don’t chase, just watch how price reacts to the 3,160–3,185 key range.
Lose it? Expect deeper cool-off.
Hold it? Reload for one more push toward the highs.
Stay focused, trade smart, and let structure guide your next moves!
Drop a comment if you want the weekly/daily breakdowns.
— GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)
